New research raises questions about what prediction market users are actually pricing when it comes to catastrophe risk.

Large real estate funds can pay less to insure the same disaster risk, giving institutional scale a potentially valuable advantage as property insurance costs rise.

A new report says catastrophe models built on historical risk are struggling to keep pace with changing hazards, forcing insurers and reinsurers to rethink how they measure, price and capitalize futur...

Kalshii’s own research shows climate contracts don't resolve uncertainty until hours before settlement and that's a problem for the commercial hedging pitch.

Also, Karen Clark on why the hardest part of a catastrophe model is still the storm itself, what AI can and can't fix, and what the models are actually doing in a softening market.

Kalshi’s Weather Company deal shows prediction markets moving into insurance territory, and the private infrastructure needed to turn public weather data into financial payouts.

California’s biggest insurers are warning lawmakers that limiting wildfire subrogation could push utility-caused losses onto insurers and their customers.

The insurance AI fight is increasingly about what the models are built to predict: losses or a policyholder’s willingness to pay.

Utilities, insurers and investors are battling over who absorbs California’s next catastrophic wildfire loss—as the AI data-center boom raises the stakes.

New research traces how climate-driven insurance non-renewals can jump from insurer balance sheets into mortgage defaults, falling home values and weaker local economies.

Analysts quickly shifted from wildfire damage to cost recovery, securitization and insurance, highlighting how investors increasingly view wildfires as a utility financing challenge rather than simply...

Interactive Brokers is preparing to list hurricane-landfall contracts on a public exchange, handing banks, asset managers and property investors a direct line to catastrophe risk long confined to the ...

Costly capital and limited competition in offshore reinsurance inflate hurricane premiums, and how much homeowners could save if those barriers fall.

New research maps America's fastest-growing flood "hotspots" — 22 million people concentrated along the Gulf Coast and Southeast — and finds they're absorbing billions in losses the insurance map neve...

Frontier AI's cheap tier now reaches "catastrophic" bio and cyber capability levels — and both OpenAI and Meta admit only safeguards keep it there.

Karen Clark warns reinsurers and ILS managers that the practice of layering homemade multipliers onto aging catastrophe models is running out of road and explains why AI will tighten the once-dismiss...

The AI data center buildout is rewriting the rules of infrastructure finance — and the risk is ending up somewhere most investors aren't looking.

A live Risky Science Podcast event

The perfect market-dislocation play driven by wildfires, California's energy utility sector was made for activist and credit funds trading on companies buckling under ballooning liabilities. The AI-dr...

Risk, models and markets

A live Risky Science Podcast event

As the 2026 Hurricane seasons starts on Monday, risk and market professionals are playing a different El Niño hedge.

Modeling suggests the Bundibugyo virus outbreak in the DRC may already be twice the official case count, and the private market architecture built to respond to exactly this kind of possible global ev...

The state's energy industry is searching for a new financial backstop to absorb wildfire losses that have already outrun every model built to contain them.

New Census Bureau research confirms what private flood insurers have been betting on: flood exposure is concentrating among the wealthiest Americans, and the market is moving to follow it.

Join a live Risky Science Podcast discussion

Berkshire Hathaway's first quarter filing reveals $2.9 billion in cumulative wildfire loss accruals at PacifiCorp even after a significant Oregon appellate reversal — leaving a liability architecture ...

The budget proposal would dissolve federal hurricane and severe weather research infrastructure.

Two major insurance industry voices are challenging a draft NAIC guidance document, arguing that state regulators are targeting the wrong culprit in the homeowners insurance affordability crisis.

PG&E's $73 billion capital plan has a contingency clause and it runs through wildfire liability.

Private credit opacity and surging institutional demand for physical climate risk tools are emerging as demand drivers for financial risk data providers.

Executives from Tokio Marine, Chubb, and Adaptive argue the industry's legacy coverage model is structurally misaligned with the risk environment it now faces.

Reinsurance and modeling professionals say pricing individual mitigation remains structurally unsolvable, and the industry's most consequential data problem may not be a data problem at all.