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Neal Hudson

@resi-analyst.bsky.social
3.3K followers 687 following 1.1K posts

UK housing market analyst. Personal account. Analysis and commentary at builtplace.com Visiting Fellow at Henley Business School. Columnist for FT Weekend’s Money.

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Neal Hudson @resi-analyst.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
It’s what they were desperately hoping for!
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Neal Hudson @resi-analyst.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
Depressing thing is all these outcomes are so obvious and have been for a while but it's apparent that the government is only now slowly realising the predicament it is in when it comes to new supply.
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Neal Hudson @resi-analyst.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
Just need more money! Perhaps a big funding package like we saw back in 2009. It was always strange because, although an improvement, the scale of SAHP never matched their broader 1.5m target.
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Neal Hudson @resi-analyst.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
You can’t build 40% of most sites in London as they tend to be blocks of flats so are all or nothing. Lots of upfront fixed costs, with breakeven coming late in the delivery process. Might be able to phase larger sites but if no guarantee of funding then still challenging to deliver early phases.
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Neal Hudson @resi-analyst.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
bsky.app/profile/jess...
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Neal Hudson @resi-analyst.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
Yeah, sounds like the GLA approach might not work out as well but both outcomes clearly highlight massive unmet need for funding in London and across the country.
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Neal Hudson @resi-analyst.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
Affordable development is one of the few* bright spots in the market at the moment and this is seriously limiting potential delivery. Government needs to figure out a way to bring forward more Social and Affordable Homes Programme funding quickly. (*I'd probably also include co-living and PDR)
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Neal Hudson @resi-analyst.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
Yes!
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Neal Hudson @resi-analyst.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
Home Builders Federation on "planning fundamentalism" From yesterday's HMI report(£) www.house-builder.co.uk/publications...
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Financial Times @financialtimes.com · 08/10/2026
Retirement flats have been a miserable investment ft.trib.al/4ljFtl8 | opinion
ft.trib.al
Retirement flats have been a miserable investment
To assess value sensibly, the purchaser has to balance initial, recurring and final costs against unpredictable longevity — this is difficult to do
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Neal Hudson @resi-analyst.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
(been a while so can’t remember exactly who)
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Neal Hudson @resi-analyst.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
Was doing stuff on gentrification around 2014 & had coffee with someone senior in the police force. Told me that pre olympics, he had his Italian counterpart over for a walk around key areas like KX. Unintentional but criminal activity cleared up overnight as they thought they were being targeted.
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Neal Hudson @resi-analyst.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
I'm the opposite. Usually need the find the detail on whatever housing policy has been announced hidden away in it. Then look at the OBR housing market forecasts to see how daft they look this time.
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Tom Dobson @tomdobbo.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
And Ken. The underlying basis of uk urban policy since the 90s.
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Neal Hudson @resi-analyst.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
Manchesterism is just later housing market cycle Boris-ism
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Neal Hudson @resi-analyst.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
Manchesterism is just later housing market cycle Boris-ism
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Neal Hudson @resi-analyst.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
Had a great few days holiday in Caen back in April. Tempted to just go see it when back in France as plenty of restaurants etc we didn’t get to. Though the ferry from Portsmouth was a fair bit longer than 1.25hrs!
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Neal Hudson @resi-analyst.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
It was amazing to see tigers in the wild at the Jim Corbett National Park back in 2000. Highly recommended though easier to do when you live in Delhi. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jim_Cor...
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Neal Hudson @resi-analyst.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
Yeah, definitely a shadow of its former self. Though apparently mainland china is the one market that has remained relatively active. All the agents stopped publishing data on buyer nationality around 2014 when it became politically sensitive.
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Neal Hudson @resi-analyst.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
I wrote a little bit about overseas buyers and their mortgages in 2017 resi-analysts.com/2017/01/25/w...
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Neal Hudson @resi-analyst.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
London Centric: How London flats are marketed in China open.substack.com/pub/londonce...
open.substack.com
How London flats are marketed in China
Chinese buyers of London homes say they feel like “chives” • Bafflement at Londoners’ love of old homes built during the “Qing dynasty” • Fascination with the enigma of the British electrician
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Neal Hudson @resi-analyst.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
And suspect most of our long haul flights were part of my dads employment package: x flights home per year etc.
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Neal Hudson @resi-analyst.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
I did fly a lot but lived overseas. Can’t remember exactly on prices (& wasn’t paying) but seem to recall it being a big saving when the price for London or Bristol <->Edinburgh dropped from several hundred to just over £100 in the late 1990s thanks to STA travel and budget airline competition.
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Neal Hudson @resi-analyst.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
This one is a shock to most people when you tell them, even if they’re in the mortgage industry.
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Pete Apps @peteapps.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
Breaking: the Met Police has submitted charging files to the Crown Prosecution Service resulting from its Grenfell fire investigation. The files cover 54 individuals and 20 companies and cover charges including fraud, misconduct in public office and manslaughter
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Neal Hudson @resi-analyst.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
My understanding is there’s been a recent change in guidance that now massively limits who should access info.
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Neal Hudson @resi-analyst.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
With some names possibly overlapping here www.theguardian.com/uk/2009/jul/...
theguardian.com
Live hand grenade found outside home of former Liverpool player and manager Kenny Dalglish
Explosive device found on garden wall as police investigate unconnected vendetta against security boss
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Neal Hudson @resi-analyst.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
This is an interesting document to read if you want to know about development in Liverpool
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Neal Hudson @resi-analyst.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
They are pretty negative at the moment though but not crash territory
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Neal Hudson @resi-analyst.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
The price estimates tend to be a bit of a finger in the air and based on their latest deal! While the London results have tended to be weighted towards central London.
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Neal Hudson @resi-analyst.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
You’d think they’d correct but without a big external trigger and with the opportunity to let them out, lots of people are testing the market but sitting tight (will be interesting to see if Righters Rights has an effect given rules around relisting for rent)
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Neal Hudson @resi-analyst.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Wrote my own version back in 2024 so some of the data is a bit out of date but includes some transaction charts giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...
giftarticle.ft.com
Why London’s property market is stagnating
The capital is stuck in a rut; digging itself out is not going to be easy — or cheap
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Neal Hudson @resi-analyst.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Good piece on prices but doesn’t really mention the other side: transactions. Turnover has collapsed in London, especially central areas. That means the price evidence is based on thin volumes and most people are sitting it out (thanks high rents!). That’s prevented further price falls.
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Neal Hudson @resi-analyst.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Yes. Osbornes intention from 2014 was to get rapid central London house price growth off the front pages, and then in 2016 my help FTBs at expense of landlords (there was no one else for landlords to vote for back then!) Tax is powerful when it comes to affecting housing outcomes.
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Neal Hudson @resi-analyst.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Helped shift the market away from BTL to first time buyers (FTBs) everywhere except the most expensive markets like London where FTBs couldn’t afford to replace them.
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Neal Hudson @resi-analyst.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Additional SDLT if buying second/investment property www.gov.uk/guidance/sta...
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Neal Hudson @resi-analyst.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
It’s a real mix. Central London peak was 2014 with the SDLT changes, and HRAD in 2016 was as big as brexit (if not more).
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Neal Hudson @resi-analyst.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
Not sure the “housing ladder” framing for Your First Home is going to work out well for them in the long-term (unless they manage to pump up house prices) m.youtube.com/shorts/r3C6n...
m.youtube.com
Prime Minister Andy Burnham announced 2.5% deposit scheme for first-time buyers
YouTube video by Andy Burnham
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Neal Hudson @resi-analyst.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
Yeah, the “breakneck speed” comment in the FT piece is concerning. Hopefully that still includes plenty of modelling about how this will all work in the current environment.
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Neal Hudson @resi-analyst.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
Probably not, at least on the pricing side. Think the Hometrack data tends to focus on volume housebuilder type development rather than flats
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Neal Hudson @resi-analyst.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
Yeah, I’d guess a lot of delivery at the moment is because they have to keep going and are just hoping the market gets better
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Neal Hudson @resi-analyst.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
Also; that 2.5% deposit makes me nervous. H2B did well for HMT thanks to house price growth. We don’t have much of that around at the moment.
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Neal Hudson @resi-analyst.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
While Hometrack research shows the new build market has been targeting the top end of local pricing with larger properties www.hometrack.com/newsroom/new...
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Neal Hudson @resi-analyst.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
Details in the guardian suggest it will take quite a sift in the market to deliver the homes that Your First Home will support www.theguardian.com/politics/202...
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Neal Hudson @resi-analyst.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
Probably took about two years for H2B equity loan to be additional (deliver more new build homes than without it)
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Neal Hudson @resi-analyst.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
And if you’re wondering why the housebuilding sector needs demand side support, here’s my July 2026 column: giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...
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Jim Pickard @pickardje.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
Burnham has just confirmed our scoop
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Neal Hudson @resi-analyst.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
And if you’re wondering why the housebuilding sector needs demand side support, here’s my July 2026 column: giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...
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Neal Hudson @resi-analyst.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
My June 2025 FT column on Help to Buy giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...
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Jim Pickard @pickardje.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
FT exclusive: Andy Burnham has decided to press ahead with a revived Help to Buy scheme (although it won't be called that) www.ft.com/content/e23b...
ft.com
Burnham set to revive Help to Buy scheme in bid to boost housebuilding
Concern mounts among ministers that low construction activity could hit growth forecasts
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