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Amy Summerville

@regretlab.bsky.social

2.1K followers 2.4K following 296 posts

Social cognitive psychologist. Former academic, still a scientist. ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0002-6409-8233

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Amy Summerville @regretlab.bsky.social · 18/06/2024

I ....could not.

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Amy Summerville @regretlab.bsky.social · 23/01/2024

Excited to have an article about our work on the IARPA HFC program appear in this month's special issue of Decision. We find that simple if-then rules benefit forecast accuracy, offering a more efficient way to improve crowd predictions. Article here: psycnet.apa.org/doiLanding?d...

Abstract for article "Automated Update Tools to Augment the Wisdom of Crowds in Geopolitical Forecasting" beginning: Despite the importance of predictive judgments, individual human forecasts are frequently less accurate than those of even simple prediction algorithms. At the same time, not all forecasts are amenable to algorithmic prediction. Here, we describe the evaluation of an automated prediction tool that enabled participants to create simple rules that monitored relevant indicators (e.g., commodity prices) to automatically update forecasts. We examined these rules in both a pool of previous participants in a geopolitical forecasting tournament (Study 1) and a naïve sample recruited from Mechanical Turk (Study 2). Across the two studies, we found that automated updates tended to improve forecast accuracy relative to initial forecasts and were comparable to manual updates. Additionally, making rules improved the accuracy of manual updates.

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Amy Summerville @regretlab.bsky.social · 12/01/2024

You’ve been kidnapped. The characters from the last tv show you watched are trying to rescue you. Who is coming to save you? It's going to be over in 20 minutes, no one will really be in peril, and we'll all learn a little about being a good person.

The characters from the animated series "Big Tree City" running purposefully, with the words "Big Tree City" overhead and rays of light radiating outward in a heroic manner.

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