Sign in

Redistrict Girl

@redistrictgirl.bsky.social
152 followers 43 following 2.1K posts

I guess politics and I guess pretty okay, I post about politics and I post pretty angry. (she/her)

PostsRepliesMedia
Redistrict Girl @redistrictgirl.bsky.social · 8m
static.klipy.com
Spiderman Negro Triste en la Lluvia
ALT: Spiderman Negro Triste en la Lluvia
010
Redistrict Girl @redistrictgirl.bsky.social · 10h
It's not gonna be a D+12 year, chill out. It will be roughly the same as 2018, maybe a little better
000
Redistrict Girl @redistrictgirl.bsky.social · 13h
the comment section heartily supports what she's saying even though she's obviously PLASTERED. normie liberals are mad as FUCK
000
Redistrict Girl @redistrictgirl.bsky.social · 18h
Okay y'all CAN'T throw this one in the average 💀
000
Redistrict Girl @redistrictgirl.bsky.social · 18h
Insanely blursed that the Senate hinges on Ohio, Iowa, and Kansas like it's 2002 or some shit
000
Redistrict Girl @redistrictgirl.bsky.social · 18h
GARNET update www.tumblr.com/redistrictgi... www.tumblr.com/redistrictgi...
tumblr.com
Post by @redistrictgirl · 1 image
💬 0  🔁 0  ❤️ 0 · As of October 14th, 2026, Democrats have a 57% chance of winning the United States Senate. · The Democratic surge of September is over, and as the dust settles, the Senate is close…
000
Redistrict Girl @redistrictgirl.bsky.social · 14/10/2026
000
Redistrict Girl @redistrictgirl.bsky.social · 14/10/2026
state-level and gcb polling say that it's 2018 again, district-level polling says that it's 1974 again
010
Reposted by Redistrict Girl
Senator Dr. John Brown stan account, Esq., PhD, MD, JD, LCSW @johnbrownstan.bsky.social · 13/10/2026
I hope Jared Polis rots in hell
2585
Redistrict Girl @redistrictgirl.bsky.social · 13/10/2026
My tolerance for Third Way bullshit is at an all time low
040
Redistrict Girl @redistrictgirl.bsky.social · 13/10/2026
Normal election cycle
000
Redistrict Girl @redistrictgirl.bsky.social · 09/10/2026
Hypothetical: Democrats win 53 Senate Seats. But the weird dynamics of this cycle have made every state a tossup. Which 19 nominees would you prefer most?
000
Redistrict Girl @redistrictgirl.bsky.social · 09/10/2026
Did Denver do a lot of long term damage to the CO GOP
010
Redistrict Girl @redistrictgirl.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
Dream Senate election result
000
Redistrict Girl @redistrictgirl.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
Do we think he kills himself if Democrats win South Carolina
010
Redistrict Girl @redistrictgirl.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
I would trade Suozzi for Talarico in a heartbeat
000
Redistrict Girl @redistrictgirl.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
Strange week. www.tumblr.com/redistrictgi... www.tumblr.com/redistrictgi...
tumblr.com
Post by @redistrictgirl · 1 image
💬 0  🔁 0  ❤️ 0 · As of October 6th, 2026, Democrats have a 57% chance of winning the United States Senate. · It's starting to look like too little, too late for the GOP. The polling margins have lo…
000
Redistrict Girl @redistrictgirl.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
It's possible that there are shy GOP voters that will make some polling biased towards Democrats. It's possible that previous attempts to capture these shy voters are overcompensating without Trump on the ballot and will make some polling biased towards the GOP. Both could happen at the same time.
000
Redistrict Girl @redistrictgirl.bsky.social · 04/10/2026
000
Redistrict Girl @redistrictgirl.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
i have finally heard choosin texas
000
Redistrict Girl @redistrictgirl.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
Even with the crazy headlines, my GARNET update is smaller than usual this week. www.tumblr.com/redistrictgi... www.tumblr.com/redistrictgi...
tumblr.com
Post by @redistrictgirl · 1 image
💬 0  🔁 0  ❤️ 0 · As of September 29th, 2026, Democrats have a 56% chance of winning the United States Senate. · This week, polling has been strongest for Democrats in the South and Great Plains, wh…
000
Redistrict Girl @redistrictgirl.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
Reagan has a fucking airport named after him
000
Redistrict Girl @redistrictgirl.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
Talarico at 50 holy shit
000
Redistrict Girl @redistrictgirl.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
If we have a D+13 cycle I will eat a sock
000
Redistrict Girl @redistrictgirl.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
Nightmare timeline: we flip Ohio and Alaska but punt fucking Minnesota
000
Redistrict Girl @redistrictgirl.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
More election movement towards Dems this week. www.tumblr.com/redistrictgi... www.tumblr.com/redistrictgi...
tumblr.com
Post by @redistrictgirl · 1 image
💬 0  🔁 0  ❤️ 0 · As of September 22nd, 2026, Democrats have a 58% chance of winning the United States Senate. · So, there's some new polling in Alaska. New surveys from Alaska Survey Polling and Im…
010
Redistrict Girl @redistrictgirl.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
Britain Moment
000
Redistrict Girl @redistrictgirl.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
After you unskew for bias it's obviously only D+3
100
Redistrict Girl @redistrictgirl.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
I do not care which party wins these particular races but I'm happy for those who do
000
Reposted by Redistrict Girl
Redistrict Girl @redistrictgirl.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
If Democrats win a statewide election in Texas by double digits after Republicans based their entire campaign on transphobia, I don't care what Talarico said in one Fox News interview, we're getting free bottom surgery coupons at Whataburger
101
Redistrict Girl @redistrictgirl.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
I like a lot of Erin Reed's reporting, but if she started Zoloft it would have a meaningful positive impact on the trans community
010
Redistrict Girl @redistrictgirl.bsky.social · 19/09/2026
Maybe if there's a generational blue tsunami, but Fetterman or Turek (if he wins) are likely to be the deciding votes on most things otherwise. That could change in 2028.
001
Redistrict Girl @redistrictgirl.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
2006-ass Senate cycle
010
Reposted by Redistrict Girl
Redistrict Girl @redistrictgirl.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
Hot take: the problem is that the political infrastructure the queer community built by and large does not give a fuck about trans people, and particularly trans women. We have ten million studies pointing in out favor and no one pushing it
111
Redistrict Girl @redistrictgirl.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
My take is that Talarico is tactically lying and weaseling about his stance on trans rights right now. He has a record that makes me reasonably confident in that. Do I like that he's weaseling? Do I think it's useful? No and no. But...
100
Redistrict Girl @redistrictgirl.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
This update took me three hours due to Missouri and new polling sources. Please enjoy it. www.tumblr.com/redistrictgi... www.tumblr.com/redistrictgi...
tumblr.com
Post by @redistrictgirl · 1 image
💬 0  🔁 0  ❤️ 0 · As of September 15th, 2026, Republicans have a 57% chance of winning the United States Senate. · So I plugged some new polls into GARNET (a nickname for my election model that stan…
110
Redistrict Girl @redistrictgirl.bsky.social · 13/09/2026
I should point out that the miserable-ass UK Labor government was preceded by twelve years of Tory dominance
000
Reposted by Redistrict Girl
Redistrict Girl @redistrictgirl.bsky.social · 13/09/2026
Seth Moulton's career ended two weeks ago. We're fine.
001
Redistrict Girl @redistrictgirl.bsky.social · 13/09/2026
Erin Reed also treats Dallas and Austin as no-go zones because of a handful of towns in West Texas. I can see a case for focusing on one or two races to boycott. 26 races, including EVERY POTENTIAL 51ST SENATE SEAT, is ludicrous
210
Redistrict Girl @redistrictgirl.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
Oh fuck this
000
Redistrict Girl @redistrictgirl.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
GARNET Update www.tumblr.com/redistrictgi...
tumblr.com
Post by @redistrictgirl · 1 image
💬 0  🔁 0  ❤️ 0 · As of September 8th, 2026, Republicans have a 63% chance of holding control of the United States Senate. · This Senate class keeps getting stranger. On one hand, new polling in Mai…
001
Redistrict Girl @redistrictgirl.bsky.social · 08/09/2026
No visual on the GARNET House map today I guess
000
Redistrict Girl @redistrictgirl.bsky.social · 02/09/2026
This was a prime Rick and Morty plot
000
Redistrict Girl @redistrictgirl.bsky.social · 01/09/2026
GARNET update! Nothing happened in the House of Representatives. I still wrote it up, but nothing happened. Here's the Senate. www.tumblr.com/redistrictgi...
tumblr.com
Post by @redistrictgirl · 1 image
💬 0  🔁 0  ❤️ 0 · As of September 1st, 2026, Republicans have a 66% chance of holding control of the United States Senate. · The past week has been very positive for Senate Democrats in polling. Eve…
010
Redistrict Girl @redistrictgirl.bsky.social · 26/08/2026
Have some GARNET updates. Not much changed from the preview I posted two weeks ago but Tumblr lets me go into more detail. www.tumblr.com/redistrictgi... www.tumblr.com/redistrictgi...
tumblr.com
Post by @redistrictgirl · 1 image
💬 0  🔁 0  ❤️ 0 · As of August 25th, 2026, Republicans have a 70% chance of winning the US Senate. · Welcome back to another episode of "The Senate is Weird!" Season premiere, actually. On paper, t…
000
Redistrict Girl @redistrictgirl.bsky.social · 22/08/2026
The thing that concerns me about AK-SEN is how hard undecideds are pushed in the current data (presumably due to RCV, but still). That's frequently made polling less accurate in recent cycles, and Sullivan does noticeably better without it.
000
Redistrict Girl @redistrictgirl.bsky.social · 14/08/2026
what the fuck
000
Redistrict Girl @redistrictgirl.bsky.social · 12/08/2026
Notable differences between my model in 2024 and 2026: * I'll be using other polling aggregates again this year, mostly due to personal reasons and partly due to mine not standing out that much results-wise.
100
Redistrict Girl @redistrictgirl.bsky.social · 12/08/2026
Senate forecast - August 12th, 2026. Republicans have a 73% chance to hold the Senate. Democrats, while a bit shockingly unsteady in Michigan, are dominating in early polling in North Carolina and Georgia. Maine is also a likely flip. Meanwhile, Republicans are struggling hard in lots of...
100