With just under six weeks until Election Day, control of the Senate is on a knife’s edge as the handful of key races that will decide the majority remain within the margin of error.

Voters competitive CD’s polled for @CookPolitical see election not just as a referendum on Trump (who’s underwater by 16pts), but as a repudiation of the entire political system. Indies prefer candidate who will “reform entire system” vs serve as a “check on Trump”by 39pts. https://t.co/X9ohrDTzSR

A new Battleground District Project poll of the most competitive House districts in the country finds Democrats in a strong position to flip control of the chamber this fall. It also finds an...

In recent era, midterm “waves” have been relegated to purple seats/states. Pushing into deep partisan territory is rare. This cycle the combo of tariffs, rural health care cuts, & diesel fuel gives Dems their first real chance to win back rural/farm state voters. But, if they come up short in this environment, hard to make the case that these seats/states can come back in play anytime in the near future. https://t.co/pGVQqLm9o3

New polling conducted of TX Hispanic voters for @CookPolitical and @Univision finds Trump’s ‘24 coalition in shambles. Almost 1 in 5 Trump ‘24 voters now disapprove of POTUS. Talarico leads Paxton by 33. In Rio Grande Valley, Dems lead generic by 14. https://t.co/Q3YtfANCHG

BREAKING: The Supreme Court pauses a federal district court order that directed Missouri to use a gerrymandered 7R-1D map for this year’s midterms. The midterms instead will be conducted under the old 6R-2D map. No noted dissents. https://t.co/RzOLB03stc

How will we know if 2026 is a wave election in the House? For @amyewalter, the real sign of a wave year won’t be how many seats Republicans lose, but rather the types of seats that change hands. https://t.co/cHaZl631nr

If Missouri does have to use the 6-2 map, that’s fundamentally incompatible with the primaries, which were conducted under the 7-1 map. Easiest solution would probably be to hold jungle primaries on Nov. 3, with runoffs at a later date. Parties could also just appoint nominees.

The GOP challenge isn’t that MAGA fans stay home; 2/3 of MAGA R’s in Fox poll said they were “extremely motivated” to vote. But, non-MAGA R’s excitement to vote was net 20 pts lower. Why? These are the R’s most unhappy w/ economy + Trump handling of it. https://t.co/eg67dC8yF3

In WI, Hong was lumped in with El-Sayed as a progressive insurgent, but she lacked his candidate skills/campaign infrastructure; in MN, Flanagan helped the most by Craig’s Laken Riley vote. In CT, Larsen lost b/c of age, not ideology.

If you went through ‘06 cycle, this year feels like déjà vu. In ‘06 at this point, W. Bush approve = 37%. Trump at 38%. Generic ballot in Sept. of ‘06: D+6.5, Generic Ballot now: D+6.5 In both years: Unpopular war, Members mired in sex scandals. (Sherwood, Foley then; Miller, Mills now).

🎯 The CPR team goes live at 8pm ET to talk primaries in Virginia, Missouri, Michigan, Kansas & Washington. It’s one of the last major primary nights of the 2026 cycle, and it’s a big one. Watch on Substack: https://t.co/LeRL1VKvCB Watch on YouTube: https://t.co/vdR8rcWhOI

First introduced in 1997, the Cook Partisan Voting Index (Cook PVI℠...

First introduced in 1997, the Cook Partisan Voting Index (Cook PVI℠...

Backlash against the party establishment has bolstered left-wing candidates from New York to Colorado — and progressives’ winning streak hasn't been exclusively confined to deep blue urban districts....

One “benefit” party committees had with the no-coordination rule; they avoided hard conversations w/ incumbents who wanted ad cover. “I’d love to help, but that’s the decision of the folks behind the I.E. wall”. No longer… https://t.co/Sl7uVW2S1q

Rs can’t control Trump — nor count on economy bouncing back to 2018 level Instead, GOPers have to convince voters that their Dem opponent is a  bigger risk than a rubber stamp for the president. Or as @danpfeiffer wrote “The wild card isn't the environment — it's us.”

THE MINGLE PROJECT: CNN SPECIAL PREMIERING TODAY AT 9 AM & 1 PM ET on CNN. Watch Here ▶ https://t.co/FRJYx72VmZ What if America's biggest problem isn't politics—it's isolation? Michael Smerconish brings together leading thinkers, researchers, physicians, and social commentators to examine America's loneliness epidemic, growing polarization, and the disappearance of the shared experiences that once connected us. Drawing on decades of research and conversations with some of the nation's leading thinkers—including Robert Putnam @RobertDPutnam, Charles Murray @charlesmurray, David Wasserman @Redistrict, Scott Galloway @profgalloway, Debra Soh @DrDebraSoh, Tami Benton, and Ezekiel Emanuel @ZekeEmanuel — this special examines why Americans increasingly live, work, socialize, and even think apart from one another. The conversation starts now. Join us on YouTube.

Iowa is now the center of the political universe. Read our post-primary analysis: https://t.co/eAs4I7Wm1c

🚨 🚨 #CD6 https://t.co/zqAjryRJ35

🎯 Mark your calendars! @Redistrict and the CPR team goes live TONIGHT at 9m ET to talk primaries in California, Iowa, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, and South Dakota. Tune in on Substack: https://t.co/7P5ksbon00 https://t.co/Y3VynovZJG

How this age of extreme gerrymandering is transforming American politics — via @patrickdmarley @oliviacgeorge https://t.co/f1dqPgq7PO

April @CookPolitical Battleground District Survey, 25% of Rs & 23% of Indies said they liked Trump’s policies, but not behavior; trust R’s more than D’s on economy/culture issues. But, when Trump is center stage, the harder for substance to come through.

Virginia’s Supreme Court struck down a plan that would have redrawn the state’s congressional maps to benefit Democrats. In an opinion, a majority of the justices said a referendum passed by voters last month was unconstitutional. It’s a major setback for Democrats, as both parties wage a war of mid-decade redistricting. @IAmAmnaNawaz speaks to David Wasserman (@Redistrict) for more.

Seems like SCOVA's main holding is that, contrary to the Democratic lawyers' argument, an election starts when people start voting https://t.co/BiVyqKajoP

“This violation irreparably undermines the integrity of the resulting referendum vote and renders it null and void. For this reason, the congressional district maps issued by this Court in 2021 pursuant to Article II, Section 6-A of the Constitution of Virginia remain the governing maps for the upcoming 2026 congressional elections.”

New GOP friendly maps in AL/TN/LA/FL can help R’s a bit, but they can’t change the political environment. Even if those maps pass legal scrutiny AND Dem map in VA gets struck down, most realistic scenario is that R’s net 4-5 seats from redistricting. https://t.co/eyOnTcczdn

Something to consider as Republican states look to redraw their maps following Callais: unlike in TX or NC or FL, where there will still be Dems in the delegation or statewide, these states are considering getting rid of all of their Dem voices. That could give some pause…

We’re in uncharted waters now with a high degree of uncertainty. We don’t know how the SCOTUS standard will be applied going forward. But we do know that Southern states will take an aim at many Black-majority seats, most likely before 2028. Read our full thoughts on VRA here:

In a 6-3 decision, the Supreme Court on Wednesday limited the scope and scale of Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act, the provision of the law responsible for the creation of majority-minority...

Initial VRA thoughts — working this through on the fly. Louisiana and South Carolina are the most likely to draw out Dem seats. But both have their primaries very soon and the filing deadlines are long gone. Doubtful there’s enough time for new maps this year. (1/?)

Not a legal expert, but to my plain reading this is the passage in the ruling that seems most concerning for the future strength of Section 2, and likely why Elena Kagan was so alarmed in dissent. The key question going forward: can plaintiffs produce evidence for any current Black-majority Southern district showing that racially polarized voting exists in a way that cannot simply be explained by party affiliation?

Not a legal expert, but to my plain reading this is the passage in the ruling that seems most concerning for the future strength of Section 2, and likely why Elena Kagan was so alarmed in dissent. The key question going forward: can plaintiffs produce evidence for any current Black-majority Southern district showing that racially polarized voting exists in a way that cannot simply be explained by party affiliation?

And, for that “temporary’ pause in CA of non-partisan redistricting until 2030. Hard to believe that Dems in the state will not fight for partisan redistricting if Rs get rid of 5-7 Dem seats in the south in 2028

On Monday, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis unveiled a ruthless new gerrymander designed to convert the Sunshine State’s House delegation from 20 Republicans and eight Democrats to 24 Republicans and just...

With our @CookPolitical rating changes following the Virginia referendum's passage, the median House seat is now getting dangerously close to Lean Democrat. That didn't even happen in 2018. Needless to say, Democrats are the clear favorites to win a House majority. https://t.co/krT3ioGdzb

If you want to understand what comes next in VA, read @ercovey ‘s very smart piece here! https://t.co/AaIGbJKcSp

I'm going to break my self-imposed social media ban to note something that I might write if I wasn't leaving on a trip tonight: If you want to solve gerrymandering, it is a solvable problem.

Don't miss it! TONIGHT @ 7pm ET: @redistrict, @ercovey and Carrie Dann go live on Substack to discuss the Virginia redistricting referendum results and answer your questions. Tune in here: https://t.co/Lcs1aru9KK https://t.co/7AwqofxxcL

Don't miss it! TONIGHT @ 7pm ET: @redistrict, @ercovey and Carrie Dann go live on Substack to discuss the Virginia redistricting referendum results and answer your questions. Tune in here: https://t.co/Lcs1aru9KK https://t.co/7AwqofxxcL

With an increasingly sour national environment for Republicans, the Senate battlefield is shifting. We are moving four ratings, all in Democrats’ favor. Read more from @JessicaTaylor: https://t.co/PeNN1S1dYw

Inside Elections is a non-partisan newsletter covering U.S. House, Senate, and gubernatorial campaigns, Presidential politics, and political developments.

Why is Spanberger not popular; voters elected her bc she said she’d focus on affordability. Thus far, she’s most tied w/ a thing she didn’t campaign on, and one that is definitely not about controlling cost of living: a very partisan 10-1 map.