iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Still sticks with me today when the teenage homeless shelter from my exurban hometown all but stated the reason they exist is to provide shelter for kids who got kicked out of the house for telling their parents they're gay.

030

Ryan Wiley @rdubwiley.bsky.social · 6h

Why not make the "creepy uncle rights" bill at this point?

1120

Ryan Wiley @rdubwiley.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

Piketty remains undefeated in his prediction that wealth inequality would cause wild political swings among the working class

1731

Ryan Wiley @rdubwiley.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

I do find it crazy that they aren't triaging and attempting to put a little bit into Minnesota. Definitely owning us so hard by putting that money in Texas, I'd be even more owned if they doubled the money they're spending there

010

Ryan Wiley @rdubwiley.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

I mean, they're faculty at the University of Michigan, I'm sure there's all types of interesting conversations about the effectiveness of capital gains taxes (vs. your average Republican who is asking questions like "should we deport all Indians from the country")

110

Ryan Wiley @rdubwiley.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

"Leftist in the economics department tries to push his colleagues leftward by being there" seems like a pretty decent thing to do.

110

Ryan Wiley @rdubwiley.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

"Socially liberal, fiscally conservative" doesn't really exist, but if they did it would probably be found in an Economics department.

0110

Ryan Wiley @rdubwiley.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

Also if you work in an Economics department you're probably going to need to have some lunches with some pretty conservative types.

380

Ryan Wiley @rdubwiley.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

I think Adam Neely's take is the right one: music will be bifrucated between personalizable (AI) music and performative music.

0260

Ryan Wiley @rdubwiley.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

I do agree with you that we're nearing a point where it's going to shake Republicans to their core in the same way it did for 2004 or 2014 for Dems.

030

Ryan Wiley @rdubwiley.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

I definitely think one of these indys getting home in the plains really changes the calculation for these Republicans (even beyond what losing Texas will do).

000

Ryan Wiley @rdubwiley.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

*whispers* but what if the recall screen of the 2024 election is underestimating Dems everywhere

250

Ryan Wiley @rdubwiley.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

Trump's closing message in Ohio, baby!

022

Ryan Wiley @rdubwiley.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

Definitely think the likely voter screen is going to pull double-duty this time, but definitely doesn't help the 2025 elections underestimated Dems if you're looking for leftward bias in polling. Really hoping for some new demo that is under sampled that goes bonkers for Republicans to survive.

010

Ryan Wiley @rdubwiley.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

Telling your boss the "models are just going to get so smart" meanwhile you're sitting in the back counting the $$$ by telling the coding agent the actual context it needs rather than "make it work, no errors, brah"

020

Ryan Wiley @rdubwiley.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

I wonder how much of a jump Opus 5.5 even has on this because God damn did Claude like to write and now your average PDF/slide is a 95% of the way there rather than being like "dude, I don't really need your philosophy of the world on every slide"

020

Ryan Wiley @rdubwiley.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

I often find that I get much worse results if I do stuff like "search the internet and give me an overview of this problem" and rather much better giving stuff like "tell me what's out there, and then I'll tell you what to use for this report, and then I want you to make the scripts"

230

Ryan Wiley @rdubwiley.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

"Jesus fucking Christ, what's the stupid combo wombo for the dockerfile and the apt command to install the right dependencies. Go find that one command and see if it builds"

180

Ryan Wiley @rdubwiley.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

"There's this really silly settings format and I've filled out the first few but they all follow the same structure, go figure out the rest and give me the file back"

1110

Ryan Wiley @rdubwiley.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

Some poor rube had 12 billion iterations of "turn this data into a line chart and map" get into the training dataset and reaching that treasure trove gave us Opus 5.5

010

Ryan Wiley @rdubwiley.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

I'm also just amused that LLMs have clear validation when it comes to "my coworker asked me for something, I copied and pasted the email and it did what they wanted," but somehow bit operations would be beyond these things.

130

Ryan Wiley @rdubwiley.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

They solved coding, so it's like a mechanical turk but with secretly calling the python interpreter.

090

Ryan Wiley @rdubwiley.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

What if they just got really good at cold-reading the types of numbers you'd put in to check the calculation, huh?

260

Ryan Wiley @rdubwiley.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

I'm just in awe of this guy's commitments to W numbers before the midterms.

030

Ryan Wiley @rdubwiley.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

It's also going to be weird when national media runs "will the President get the message from this midterm?" and they'll do roundtables about how that's definitely going to happen only for gas to spike further because he's being fed "good boy, Donald" Chat-GPT slop

000

Ryan Wiley @rdubwiley.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

Can't wait for the 2028 elections where we get Blouth Dakota and 65 senate seats.

110

Ryan Wiley @rdubwiley.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

The more important question: can Opus 5.5 do 95% of the presentation slop in a shockingly decent way? Absolutely.

050

Ryan Wiley @rdubwiley.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

Either polling is absolutely busted or you better get prepared for an absolute freakout when Texas is controlled by a Dem governor (and a Dem legislature hopefully)

0101

Ryan Wiley @rdubwiley.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

Margin shift of D+14 is right about where generic ballot shift is headed.

180

Ryan Wiley @rdubwiley.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

Oh, we're hitting low 20s in the lameduck

020

Ryan Wiley @rdubwiley.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

Look man, I don't write the history books but the period between 2010 and 2030 should really be called the "dumb era"

000

Ryan Wiley @rdubwiley.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

A lot of people staked their political careers on the voting population moving culturally right and oh boy were they wrong about that.

060

Ryan Wiley @rdubwiley.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

TBF I think a lot of conservatives are seeing Abdul speak at length for the first time and it's setting in that he's Michigan Obama.

041

Ryan Wiley @rdubwiley.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

Mood on the ground is not positive towards Rogers even among conservatives.

131

Ryan Wiley @rdubwiley.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

There's a lot of creative destruction and unfortunately RSI means you race on infrastructure to the point where you don't make money. Like any cartel the point is to slow down the competition so both parties can exploit their market position, and in this case there's ton of demand for Opus 5.5/Sol

000

Ryan Wiley @rdubwiley.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

Wake up, honey, backpropagation is dead

050

Ryan Wiley @rdubwiley.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

The "not getting money from big donors" part makes it sound like they were okay with trade that they were going to deal with the sex ring stuff as a condition of lots of $$$. That didn't happen and it sounds like the relationship soured when the money guys didn't keep up their end of the deal

040

Ryan Wiley @rdubwiley.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

Ezra brought it up in the interview and Gates's defense was that he was looking for money from big donors and got no money at all from them! Circumstantial evidence here tells a uh different story.

1461

Ryan Wiley @rdubwiley.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

Happy Benetti is getting national playoff opportunities, but boy is it weird hearing him on a Red Sox/Yankees playoff series.

011

Ryan Wiley @rdubwiley.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

The marketplace stuff is wild because they're trying the equivalent of "bankrupting the casino" but with health insurance. I don't think insurers thinks it's fraud to collect free premiums, but the dumb era keeps moving forward.

0160

Ryan Wiley @rdubwiley.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

Everyone was laughing at Anthropic for interviewing the models before they put them on the shelf, but now they're laughing all the way to the bank.

0140

Ryan Wiley @rdubwiley.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

They made Opus 5.5 too good!

120

Ryan Wiley @rdubwiley.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

The theoretical result is that gas prices essentially say the same (people are willing to pay that price) and that it just loses a bunch of tax revenue for no reason. Also call me skeptical that it would work all that well for gas to be $0.30 cheaper when we're in the high fours.

000

Ryan Wiley @rdubwiley.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

"Chart analysis of inelastic supply shocks" about to have a real hard W

100

Ryan Wiley @rdubwiley.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

GOP must have a different turnout model, right? I refuse to believe these are the same likely voter universe they're putting out in internals.

020

Ryan Wiley @rdubwiley.bsky.social · 27/09/2026

I think Opus/Fable for your creative/coding tasks and Sol/Astra as the general workhouse is a general setup that works.

031

Ryan Wiley @rdubwiley.bsky.social · 27/09/2026

My projections put Michigan at somewhere around 10-15 seat pickups in November (between the house and senate), so yeah it should be in the triple digits nationwide with this environment.

010

Ryan Wiley @rdubwiley.bsky.social · 27/09/2026

Saw the Trump "paid for the US government" ads during the Lions game, and I'd just like to say: you sure are owning us libs, sir. You should put more money into these ads.

020

Ryan Wiley @rdubwiley.bsky.social · 27/09/2026

Unsatisfied with the traditional super PACs, the President has turned the entire government into a super PAC. Going to have to do the equivalent of "bleaching the entire room" but with the books after this admin ends.

130