iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

King Raj @rajmehta.ca · 19/05/2026

After just 11 games at the complex, #Braves OF prospect Michael Martinez is now at Single-A Augusta! He slashed .375/.522/.781 (204 wRC+) with 4 HR, 2 SB, and a 10:5 BB:K at the level.

05/19/26
OF Michael Martinez assigned to Augusta GreenJackets from FCL Braves.

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King Raj @rajmehta.ca · 19/05/2026

Per the MiLB.com transaction log, #Dodgers prospect Mike Sirota has been promoted to Double-A Tulsa. In our May updated list, Sirota is ranked 35th overall in our dynasty prospect rankings at Prospects Live.

05/19/26
CF Mike Sirota assigned to Tulsa Drillers from Great Lakes Loons.

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King Raj @rajmehta.ca · 09/05/2026

#Guardians prospect Justin Campbell in his Double-A debut today: 4.0 IP, 0 R, 2 H, 1 BB, 5 K Campbell was drafted with the 37th overall pick in '22, but hadn't made his pro debut until this year due to a slew of injuries. He's already at Double-A after pitching to a 2.40 ERA in 6 starts at High-A.

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King Raj @rajmehta.ca · 03/05/2026

#Phillies prospect Bryan Rincon in his last 10 games (44 PA) for Double-A Reading: • .382/.500/.853 (224 wRC+) • 4 HR/3 SB • 9:5 BB:K The 22 year old shortstop is the youngest hitter at Double-A with at least four home runs and double-digit stolen bases.

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King Raj @rajmehta.ca · 01/05/2026

#Royals prospect Austin Charles across two games in yesterday's doubleheader against High-A Wisconsin (MIL): 4-7, HR, 3B, BB, 4 R, 2 RBI, K He's now slashing .361/.439/.569 (162 wRC+) with a pair of homers and eight stolen bases in 20 games for High-A Quad Cities.

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King Raj @rajmehta.ca · 27/04/2026

#Tigers prospect Jesus Pinto entered today with just 2 XBH on the year (1 2B, 1 3B) despite boasting elite EVs for a 19 year old (91.2 avg, 109.8 max), as he wasn't lifting the ball. Today he lifted 3, and all 3 went for extra bases, including his 1st HR of 2026! 2B 1: 108.9 2B 2: 104.9 HR: 96.7

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King Raj @rajmehta.ca · 20/04/2026

#Cubs prospect Cole Mathis has 7 home runs through 14 games at Single-A. It's the most among all players at the level, and in the Carolina League nobody else has more than 4. Unfortunately he won't be able to hold on to those leads for long, as he's just been promoted to High-A South Bend.

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King Raj @rajmehta.ca · 20/04/2026

Riley Cornelio for Triple-A Rochester today: 5.0 IP | 3 H | 1 R/ER | 1 BB | 9 K The 25 year old #Nationals prospect currently has a 2.45 ERA & 27 Ks through 4 starts (18.1 IP) at AAA, with the help of a revamped fastball along with a plus slider per Prospects Live. Clips of all 9 Ks from today:

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King Raj @rajmehta.ca · 19/04/2026

Joshua Kuroda-Grauer's home runs by year: 2025 (121 games): 2 HR 2026 (14 games): 3 HR The #Athletics prospect went 2-5 tonight, and logged his 5th stolen base and 3rd home run of the year at Double-A Midland. Currently striking out at a measly 12% rate as well.

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King Raj @rajmehta.ca · 15/04/2026

Avery Owusu-Asiedu breaks up the no-no with a no-doubter! EV: 107 mph Dist.: 401 ft The #DBacks prospect is now slashing .265/.342/.588 with 2 HR & 3 SB through his first nine games with High-A Hillsboro.

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King Raj @rajmehta.ca · 14/04/2026

Jackson Merrill has a .095 batting average against pitches 93 MPH or harder this season in MLB

Jackson Merrill: 99 pitches 93+ MPH out of 265 total (37.4%) with a .095 batting average.

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King Raj @rajmehta.ca · 04/04/2026

Danny Barrand (one of our scouts at Prospects Live) noted that there was potential for tweaks to his lower half, and I believe the O’s were able to establish some of those changes as his extension in his Spring Breakout outing was up by about half a foot compared to where it was at in college.

Joseph Dzierwa (16th BAL) Scouting Report
Fastball: 45
Changeup: 60
Cutter: 40
Command: 55

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King Raj @rajmehta.ca · 25/03/2026

Now that the Yankees' lineup is out, here's how their lineup is projected to perform against Logan Webb.

Pitcher: Logan Webb

Grisham - .272/.349/.587
Judge - .303/.460/.656
Bellinger - .228/.303/.312
Rice - .353/.436/.719
Stanton - .240/.329/.405
Chisholm - .256/.322/.507
Caballero - .205/.231/.355
McMahon - .234/.315/.429
Wells - .209/.306/.366

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King Raj @rajmehta.ca · 25/03/2026

Currently working on a matchup calculator that looks at how a lineup is projected to perform against a certain pitcher by looking at how they've performed against similar pitchers in the past. Ramos doesn't look great against Fried but he's still better than most of the others in the lineup.

Pitcher: Max Fried

Arraez - .226/.226/.287
Chapman - .240/.240/.310
Devers - .237/.364/.403
Adames - .193/.298/.250
Lee - .207/.240/.263
Ramos - .213/.289/.329
Schmitt - .214/.214/.375
Bailey - .227/.227/.292
Bader - .192/.307/.246

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King Raj @rajmehta.ca · 22/03/2026

With the amount of off days the #Yankees have to start the year, they can get away with a 4-man rotation for the first couple weeks. Assuming they don’t want anybody pitching on short rest, they don’t have to introduce a 5th starter until the 11th at Tampa Bay. Here’s how it would shake out:

3/25: Fried
3/26: Off
3/27: Schlittler
3/28: Warren
3/29: Off
3/30: Weathers
3/31: Fried (5 DR)
4/1: Schlittler (4 DR)
4/2: Off
4/3: Warren (5 DR)
4/4: Weathers (4 DR)
4/5: Fried (4 DR)
4/6: Off
4/7: Schlittler (5 DR)
4/8: Warren (4 DR)
4/9: Weathers (4 DR)
4/10: Fried (4 DR)
4/11: Gil

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King Raj @rajmehta.ca · 26/02/2026

Big fan of Trent Harris of the #Giants. He had a sub-2 ERA & FIP at AA, and while he struggled at AAA he was still above average. Great strikeout & walk rates (27% K%, 8% BB%), and has a nice mix that features a cutter, slider, curveball and splitter. Pitch plot from today’s outing below:

Trent Harris’ pitch plot from today’s outing.

Averages:
Cutter: 93.1 mph, 13.9 iVB, -1.9 HB
Curve: 79.8 mph, -16.9 iVB, -2.3 HB
Slider: 87.9 mph, 2.1 iVB, -5.3 HB
Splitter: 81.7 mph, -1.6 iVB, 7.0 HB

5.9 ft release height, 6.7 ft extension

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King Raj @rajmehta.ca · 28/01/2026

I used Luke Weaver as an example of why the Yankees targeted Chivilli, and Ohl’s pitch plot happens to be very similar to Weaver’s. Both are high-slot righties with rising fastballs, changeups that get good separation from it, and a cutter as a third pitch (though Weaver’s rises more than Ohl’s).

Pierson Ohl’s 2025 pitch plot
Arm angle: 47°

4-Seam: 91.9 mph, 18.4” iVB, 9.4” arm-side HB
Change: 81.1 mph, 5.0” iVB, 13.3” arm-side HB
Cutter: 85.3 mph, 8.3” iVB, 1.5” glove-side HB
Curve: 77.9 mph, -10.7” iVB, 1.7” glove-side HB
Knuckle: 79.7 mph, 9.0” iVB, 1.6” glove-side HB

Luke Weaver’s 2025 pitch plot
Arm angle: 47°

4-Seam: 95.1 mph, 19.0” iVB, 6.8” arm-side HB
Change: 88.1 mph, 7.4” iVB, 14.4” arm-side HB
Cutter: 91.6 mph, 13.5” iVB, 0.8” glove-side HB
Slider: 87.0 mph, 12.1” iVB, 3.0” glove-side HB

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King Raj @rajmehta.ca · 17/01/2026

It was reported that #Giants IF Casey Schmitt had wrist surgery this offseason for an injury suffered in June, likely this HBP on June 25th that kept him out for two weeks. Before 6/25: .284/.364/.453, 133 wRC+ After return: .220/.280/.383, 84 wRC+ Bat speed went down too (72.4 mph -> 71.4 mph).

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King Raj @rajmehta.ca · 03/01/2026

2026 starts off on a high note! Just hit 1000 followers… can’t believe I got this far. 496 posts of almost exclusively baseball analysis got me to this point, and I’m not stopping now; many more will come! Thank you all for the support, and hope you all have a fantastic 2026!

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King Raj @rajmehta.ca · 29/12/2025

bFIP+ (my predictive hitting metric) of notable hitters w/ 100+ PA at Triple-A. 100 is average for AAA, and at least 120 at AAA roughly translates to 100 wRC+/bFIP+ at MLB (but it's not exactly 1 to 1 of course). If there's someone I missed that you want to know the bFIP+ of then let me know!

Sal Stewart - 196
Roman Anthony - 187
Samuel Basallo - 166
Matt Shaw - 165
JJ Wetherholt - 162
Jacob Melton - 155
Chase DeLauter - 155
Jac Caglianone - 151
Travis Bazzana - 147
Carson Benge - 142
Cole Young - 141
Cooper Ingle - 141
Dylan Beavers - 140
Owen Caissie - 137
Dalton Rushing - 136
Ryan Clifford - 135
Jonathon Long - 134
Gabriel Rincones Jr. - 133
Carter Jensen - 132
Emmanuel Rodriguez - 131

Harry Ford - 129
Walker Jenkins - 128
Abimelec Ortiz - 120
Marcelo Mayer - 120
Justin Foscue - 119
Yanquiel Fernández - 119
Moisés Ballesteros - 119
Hao-Yu Lee - 117
Alex Freeland - 116
Jeferson Quero - 115
Tyler Locklear - 115
Tre' Morgan - 115
Jordan Lawlar - 114
Adael Amador - 112
Denzel Clarke - 112
Brice Matthews - 111
Bryce Eldridge - 111
C.J. Kayfus - 108
Max Anderson - 107
Nelson Rada - 105
Yohendrick Pinango - 104
Spencer Jones - 102

Blaze Jordan - 99
Gabriel Gonzalez - 97
Brady House - 96
Justin Crawford - 96
Jett Williams - 95
Joe Mack - 94
Carson Williams - 93
Jhostynxon Garcia - 92
Daniel Susac - 92
Deyvison De Los Santos - 91
Zac Veen - 90
James Triantos - 90
Jimmy Crooks - 89
Kristian Campbell - 88
Denzer Guzman - 87
Henry Bolte - 81

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King Raj @rajmehta.ca · 27/12/2025

Just finished my share of 2026 outlooks for Prospects Live! 35k words on my end × 8 of us working tirelessly = over 250k words of content on thousands of players and prospects. All of this & much more is available at just $5/month! Lock in your rate now before we increase to $7/mo on January 2nd.

Word Count

Words: 35251
Characters: 185146
Characters excluding spaces: 151130

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King Raj @rajmehta.ca · 19/12/2025

...and filtering for the 4-seamers that resulted in barrels, this contingent is almost exactly where he allowed all his damage:

Michael King's barreled 4-seam heatmap in 2025.

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King Raj @rajmehta.ca · 19/12/2025

Looking at his 4-seam fastball heatmap from 2024 and 2025 shows that he's been locating it up at the top of the zone more, which is good as it helped increase his whiff rate on the pitch from 26.1% to 30.0%. On the other hand, there's a larger contingent of misses down in the zone...

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King Raj @rajmehta.ca · 19/12/2025

The reason for the decline against righties was due to how he attacked them, particularly with his sinker. In 2024 he primarily threw the pitch away vs RHB, but in 2025 he started throwing them in on RHB instead.

Michael King's sinker heatmap against RHB in 2024.

Michael King's sinker heatmap against RHB in 2025.

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King Raj @rajmehta.ca · 12/12/2025

Morel already pulls the ball in the air a great amount, so he has that part covered, but Morel's pre-swing hand placement is similar to what Stowers was doing in BAL. Keeping it that far back and hitting the ball out in front results in a swing length of 8.2 feet; one of the longest in the game.

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King Raj @rajmehta.ca · 12/12/2025

Stowers was traded to the Marlins at the 2024 trade deadline, but continued to struggle as the team didn't mess with his swing until the offseason. Stowers made a subtle change that helped him break out: he lowered his hands, moving them from on top of his shoulder to down in front of his body.

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King Raj @rajmehta.ca · 12/12/2025

In 2024, Stowers was in a similar boat as Morel is in right now. He showcased great EVs, but wasn't able to get to the power enough as he struck out over 35% of the time. Here's a home run he hit for the O's in 2024, and take a note of his setup at the plate before starting his swing:

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King Raj @rajmehta.ca · 08/12/2025

He only pitched 8.1 innings with CHC due to a shoulder strain, and I’ve noticed is that leading up to the injury his velo tanked. You can look at this both ways: the injury was bothering him for a while and made him less effective, or he can’t handle a starter’s workload due to injury proneness.

Chart of Michael Soroka’s average pitch velocities by game. His fastball sat 94-95 to start the year, until late June when it started tanking. It bottomed out at 90.8 in a start in August, where he only pitched two innings then left due to a shoulder strain. He came back in a bullpen role near the end of the year and sat 95-96.

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King Raj @rajmehta.ca · 05/12/2025

I'm not sure if I should be amazed or ashamed that I've visited @fangraphs.com this much

Overall FanGraphs Usage:
Rank: 56th
Percentile: 99.9th

Award: DIAMOND

Data Digger: Drilled deep into the MLB Leaderboards
Roster Connoisseur: You were one of the first to know about roster moves on RosterResource.
Cal Ripken Jr. Award: You've visited us every day this year! (338 days through 12/4)

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King Raj @rajmehta.ca · 09/09/2025

Currently working on a projection system for fantasy baseball, right now it’s only looking at 2025 stats but I’m working on including 2024 & 2023 stats to better project for 2026. Here’s the top 10 hitters in projected value so far (assuming standard 5x5 league format):

1. Juan Soto - NYM
2. Shohei Ohtani - LAD
3. Aaron Judge - NYY
4. Pete Alonso - NYM
5. Kyle Schwarber - PHI
6. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - TOR
7. Bobby Witt Jr. - KCR
8. Byron Buxton - MIN
9. Corbin Carroll - ARI
10. Fernando Tatis Jr. - SDP

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King Raj @rajmehta.ca · 28/08/2025

I'm pleased to announce that I'm now a writer for Prospects Live! I'll mainly be writing about dynasty baseball and prospects, though I'll sometimes write about general baseball analysis. I'm excited for the opportunity and can't wait to begin my journey working in baseball! www.prospectslive.com

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King Raj @rajmehta.ca · 20/08/2025

Here’s Andrew Heaney’s performance bonuses, according to @spotrac.com:

Andrew Heaney’s performance bonus incentives, per spotrac.com:

120 IP: $50K
130 IP: $100K
140 IP: $150K
150 IP: $150K
160 IP: $150K
170 IP: $150K

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King Raj @rajmehta.ca · 18/07/2025

With Willi Castro in the lineup for Nathan Lukes, the Jays become one of the best in baseball vs LHP: So, what would it take to acquire Willi Castro in a trade?

Jays lineup vs LHP with Willi Castro. Average slash line: .274/.347/.458/.805 (.352 xwOBA).

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King Raj @rajmehta.ca · 18/07/2025

All of a sudden, the lineup goes from one of the best in baseball to one that's below average. A lot of this can be solved internally, with a few platoon substitutions (Clement for Barger, Straw for Varsho, Schneider for Wagner), which can take it from below average to above average:

Jays lineup vs LHP after substitutions. Average slash line: .263/.343/.433/.776 (.342 xwOBA).

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King Raj @rajmehta.ca · 18/07/2025

Now, let's look at the same lineup vs LHP:

Jays lineup vs LHP. Average slash line: .235/.310/.366/.676 (.302 xwOBA).

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King Raj @rajmehta.ca · 18/07/2025

Let's start with the current lineup vs RHP, with Daulton Varsho as he's currently on a rehab assignment and will be returning soon (the average slash line is the mean of the 9 hitters in the lineup):

Jays lineup vs RHP. Average slash line: .290/.358/.492/.850 (.368 xwOBA).

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King Raj @rajmehta.ca · 13/06/2025

Just made a reworked version of a swing quality metric I made a couple years ago. The old version had a power component, while this one doesn't (but I'll make another version that includes it). Here are the top 10 hitters by SQ+ (min. 1000 pitches):

Top 10 Hitters by SQ+ (min. 1000 pitches):
1. Kyle Tucker - 128
2. Gleyber Torres - 122
3. Miguel Vargas - 119
4. Jung Hoo Lee - 118
5. Marcus Semien - 118
6. Adley Rutschman - 118
7. Steven Kwan - 116
8. TJ Friedl - 115
9. Ty France - 115
10. Nolan Schanuel - 114

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King Raj @rajmehta.ca · 13/06/2025

This was the swing decision component for the stat I mentioned earlier; it looked at swings in the zone & takes outside of the zone vs average. Calculated it back in 2023 so I don’t have anything more recent than that yet, but here are the top 10 from that season (min. 1000 pitches):

Top 10 hitters by “SWING+” in 2023 (min. 1000 pitches):

1. Corey Seager - 143
2. Matt Thaiss - 135
3. J.D. Davis - 134
4. Marcus Semien - 130
5. George Springer - 127
6. Kyle Tucker - 127
7. Mike Trout - 126
8. Freddie Freeman - 125
9. Chris Taylor - 125
10. Brandon Belt - 124

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King Raj @rajmehta.ca · 13/05/2025

Among pitchers with at least 27 IP in both '23 & '24, '23 bFIP is more strongly correlated with '24 ERA than ERA, RA/9, FIP, xERA, xFIP, and SIERA. In other words, bFIP is more predictive of next season's ERA than most other ERA predictors. Check out the linked thread for a quick explainer on bFIP:

Table of R^2 values checking the correlation of each of 2023 ERA, RA/9, FIP, xERA, xFIP, SIERA, and bFIP to each of 2024 ERA, RA/9, FIP, xERA, xFIP, SIERA, and bFIP.

2023 bFIP is the most predictive of 2024 ERA, RA/9, FIP, xERA, and bFIP. 2023 xFIP is the most predictive of 2024 xFIP and 2023 SIERA is the most predictive of 2024 SIERA, with bFIP being second in both.

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King Raj @rajmehta.ca · 15/04/2025

This is what you get when you search for Boyle’s splinkers from yesterday’s game. Other pitch-level stats are there, but the arm angle fields are blank.

Search results of Joe Boyle’s splinkers thrown against the Braves on April 13th, along with various pitch-level metrics. Other stats appear just fine and seem normal, but the arm angle fields are blank.

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King Raj @rajmehta.ca · 04/04/2025

The team logos of the current AL West standings spells out “ASSHAT” from bottom to top.

Current AL West Standings

1. (T) Texas Rangers
2. (A) Los Angeles Angels
3. (H) Houston Astros
4. (S) Seattle Mariners
5. (A’s) Athletics

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King Raj @rajmehta.ca · 15/03/2025

Back at TD Ballpark for another Spring Breakout game! Twins @ Jays today. Flying back home tomorrow so this will be my final spring training game this year. Really enjoyed my experience here!

Picture of TD Ballpark, the Jays’ spring training home ballpark in Dunedin.

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King Raj @rajmehta.ca · 14/03/2025

Day 2: Pirates @ Phillies (Spring Breakout) Lots of interesting prospects playing for both sides, can’t wait to see them all in action!

Picture of BayCare Ballpark, the Phillies’ spring training home ballpark in Clearwater.

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King Raj @rajmehta.ca · 13/03/2025

I’m in Florida for a few days so I figured I’d catch a few spring training games! First up: O’s @ Jays

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King Raj @rajmehta.ca · 07/03/2025

One thing I do to see if I have a good fantasy team is to send it to others and have them guess the # of teams in the league (guess lower = good, guess higher = bad). The draft for one of my main leagues just ended, so guess away! Format: H2H each cat; R, RBI, SB, OBP, TB; K, ERA, WHIP, SV+H, W+QS

Fantasy Team Draft Picks (pic 1 of 2):

1. Tarik Skubal
2. Yordan Alvarez
3. William Contreras
4. Oneil Cruz
5. Jacob deGrom
6. Alex Bregman
7. Yandy Diaz
8. Matt McLain
9. Ryan Helsley
10. Felix Bautista
11. Dansby Swanson
12. Spencer Strider
13. Tyler Holton
14. Jorge Soler

Fantasy Team Draft Picks (pic 2 of 2):

15. Brendan Donovan
16. Jung Hoo Lee
17. Jake McCarthy
18. Jeff Hoffman
19. Matt Strahm
20. Bryan Abreu
21. Jeremiah Estrada
22. Spencer Horwitz
23. Bubba Chandler
24. Alejandro Kirk
25. Ryan Weathers
26. Roman Anthony
27. Sean Burke
28. Isiah Kiner-Falefa

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King Raj @rajmehta.ca · 22/02/2025

Here’s the metrics for Clay Holmes’ new changeup, which Statcast mislabeled as a sinker. Only 83 changeups in 2024 were thrown w/ >=89 mph, <=1 in. iVB, & >=45° arm angle. Those CH had a 49% Whiff%, an avg EV of 85 mph, & an avg launch angle of -5°. This could easily be an elite pitch for Holmes.

Clay Holmes’ changeups from his start today vs Houston, which is mislabeled as a sinker.

1: 90.1 mph, 1291 rpm, 2 inches iVB, 15 inches HB
2: 90.0 mph, 1303 rpm, 1 inch iVB, 13 inches HB
3: 89.2 mph, 1196 rpm, 1 inch iVB, 16 inches HB
4: 88.7 mph, 1324 rpm, -2 inches iVB, 15 inches HB
5: 86.3 mph, 1241 rpm, 4 inches iVB, 18 inches HB

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King Raj @rajmehta.ca · 22/12/2024

When looking at pitchers with at least 250 pitches thrown in both 2023 and 2024, there is a moderately strong correlation between 2023 CRV2/100 and 2024 CRV2/100, and the relationship has an R^2 of 0.346. This is much stronger than CRV1, which had an R^2 of 0.247.

Chart of the relationship between Command Run Value version 2 per 100 pitches for 2023 and 2024. The relationship has an R^2 of 0.346.

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King Raj @rajmehta.ca · 20/12/2024

There is a positive correlation between BABIP and SBI. Therefore, if you want your batted balls to become hits more often, you must become a chonky boi with hella zoomies.

Chart of the correlation between Speed-to-Beef Index (SBI) and Batting Average on Balls in Play (BABIP). The correlation has an R^2 of 0.039.

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King Raj @rajmehta.ca · 02/12/2024

To end off, here's Frankie Montas' pitch mix vs LHB from 2021, his best full season. Some of the suggested changes are present (more SI, less FB & FC), but with it essentially being a three-pitch mix, Montas would likely still benefit from adding a sweeper, though that's easier said than done.

Frankie Montas' pitch mix vs LHB, 2021.

SI: 34.8%
FS: 30.6%
FF: 22.5%
FC: 8.6%
SL: 3.4%

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King Raj @rajmehta.ca · 02/12/2024

From '23 to '24, Sean Manaea completely reinvented himself vs RHB, going from a fastball-changeup pitcher to a sinker-sweeper one. His lower arm angle gave his pitches more horizontal break, which helps with avoiding the barrel of the bat in terms of both generating whiffs and limiting hard contact.

Sean Manaea's pitch mix vs LHB, 2023.

FF: 55.5%
CH: 22.1%
SL: 12.8%
ST: 8.8%
SI: 0.7%

Sean Manaea's pitch mix vs LHB, 2024.

SI: 41.9%
ST: 17.7%
CH: 14.5%
FF: 12.0%
FC: 7.7%
SL: 6.2%

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