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Jacob Holt

@publius2481.bsky.social
80 followers 41 following 197 posts

I am a Political Science professor at American University. I research American legislative institutions (mostly Congress, but also state legislatures) and legislative elections. All opinions are my own.

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Reposted by Jacob Holt
John Pavlovitz @johnpavlovitz.bsky.social · 12/10/2026
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Reposted by Jacob Holt
Tammy Duckworth @duckworth.senate.gov · 10/10/2026
Putin told Iran the locations of our warships. Today, Trump rewarded him by lifting sanctions and allowing American dollars to fuel Russia’s war machine. Our troops are in harm’s way, and the President cut a deal with the adversary putting a target on their backs.
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Jacob Holt @publius2481.bsky.social · 04/10/2026
This is what Trump wants How Meta Uses A.I. Data Centers to Avoid Billions in Federal Taxes www.nytimes.com/2026/09/30/t...
nytimes.com
How Meta Uses A.I. Data Centers to Avoid Billions in Federal Taxes
Meta is exploiting a lucrative tax break intended to support research and experimentation. Its own accountants say the gambit is risky.
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Reposted by Jacob Holt
John Pavlovitz @johnpavlovitz.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
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Jacob Holt @publius2481.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
In 1986 Democrats won the House vote by 9.9 points. In 1982, Democrats won by 11.8 points. In 1974 Democrats won by a whopping 16.8 points. In 1958 Democrats won by 12.4 points.
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Jacob Holt @publius2481.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
1 in 3 dollars spent on healthcare in the US is spent on administration. In comparison, Canada spends 1 out of 12 dollars spent on healthcare on administration. When people ask how we can increase coverage without increasing costs, here is a great place to start
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Jacob Holt @publius2481.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
A BIG win for democracy! Supreme Court Blocks Trump Administration Plan to Screen Mail-In Ballots www.nytimes.com/live/2026/09...
nytimes.com
Supreme Court Blocks Trump Administration Plan to Screen Mail-In Ballots
The Trump administration had asked the justices to allow a new Postal Service plan to screen ballots just weeks before the midterm elections.
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Jacob Holt @publius2481.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
A PwC survey has found 56% of CEOs report AI has failed to increase revenue or cut costs. So 56% of CEOs are saying they wasted their company’s resources. This a good example of why we should not blindly trust businesses people to be knowledgeable
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Jacob Holt @publius2481.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
Whenever Republicans complain about Muslim officials should not participate in observing 9/11, I always want to point out Osama Bin-Laden would have agreed
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Jacob Holt @publius2481.bsky.social · 30/08/2026
Good to see (for once) an article that discusses habits of successful people that focuses on what helps them succeed, not habits they have because they have money. TDLR: they ask others for help I Study Successful People. They Have One Habit in Common. www.nytimes.com/2026/08/28/o...
nytimes.com
Opinion | I Study Successful People. They Have One Habit in Common.
Being a successful self-starter doesn’t mean pulling yourself up by your bootstraps.
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Jacob Holt @publius2481.bsky.social · 15/08/2026
It is sad that in the Clacton by election the joke candidate received over 60% of the vote while Count Binface only received 27%
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Jacob Holt @publius2481.bsky.social · 13/08/2026
This is why universities should stand up to the Trump administration’s attempts to stifle free speech and academic freedom. It has no legal credibility www.nytimes.com/2026/08/13/u...
nytimes.com
Judge Dismisses Federal Government’s Antisemitism Case Against Harvard
The government argued the university had not done enough to combat antisemitism during campus protests. A judge called the incidents “isolated and episodic.”
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Jacob Holt @publius2481.bsky.social · 12/08/2026
And the last big batch from Milwaukee seals it for Crowley
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Jacob Holt @publius2481.bsky.social · 12/08/2026
Hong did not get what she needed out of the last ballots in Dane County
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Jacob Holt @publius2481.bsky.social · 12/08/2026
At this point, there do not appear to be enough votes in Dane County for Hong to overcome Crowley’s lead from just that county. Looks like it will come down to the remaining Milwaukee County returns
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Jacob Holt @publius2481.bsky.social · 12/08/2026
That recent vote count out of Milwaukee County was big for Crowley
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Jacob Holt @publius2481.bsky.social · 12/08/2026
With 92% of the vote counted, Hong leads Crowley in Lacrosse County. That is the lower level Hong wanted, so if you did not already guess, expect a close final result
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Jacob Holt @publius2481.bsky.social · 12/08/2026
We have enough votes in in Wisconsin that I think we can start speculating. So far both Crowley and Hong have reasons for disappointment. Hong was probably hoping to do better in Dane County (the state’s most liberal county), while Crowley is probably hoping to improve in Milwaukee County
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Jacob Holt @publius2481.bsky.social · 11/08/2026
Seems like Senator Cassidy should have thought about this before voting to confirm vaccine skeptic RFK Jr (who promised to do this exact thing thehill.com/homenews/sen...
thehill.com
Cassidy blasts vaccine order, saying Trump has no ‘expertise to make these changes’
Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-La.) blasted an executive order President Trump signed Monday that splits the measles, mumps and rubella (MMR) shot across three separate visits.   “I’m a doctor. This executiv…
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Jacob Holt @publius2481.bsky.social · 07/08/2026
Another good result for Democrats in Tennessee last night. Democrats won a majority on the Montgomery County Commission. Trump won Montgomery County by 18 points in 2024
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Jacob Holt @publius2481.bsky.social · 07/08/2026
Given how much the economy is hurting Republicans, this will not help (even though it is already too late to turn around public perception on the economy)
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Jacob Holt @publius2481.bsky.social · 07/08/2026
In an overlooked result from last night, Democrats won control of the Knox County school board in Tennessee (a county Trump won by almost 20 points in 2024) even though there was a competitive Republican gubernatorial primary. That bodes well for Democrats in November
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Jacob Holt @publius2481.bsky.social · 03/08/2026
www.politico.com/live-updates...
politico.com
Cornyn, Tillis confirm they will vote for Blanche
The two holdout Republicans said their deal could assuage other GOP senators, too.
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Jacob Holt @publius2481.bsky.social · 01/08/2026
Remember the Trump administration was very willing to try and prosecute innocent Americans to cover up its failures. This should alarm all Americans www.npr.org/2026/07/31/n...
npr.org
Prosecutors move to dismiss Reflecting Pool vandalism case, saying 'botched installation' to blame
The government had accused David Hearn of ripping a piece of sealant after a $14-million renovation. Hearn has repeatedly said that he simply touched the water in the pool out of curiosity last month.
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Jacob Holt @publius2481.bsky.social · 28/07/2026
So Tesla’s Cybertruck has been named the biggest flop in automotive history by Bloomberg. Somehow Elon Musk’s plan to upset the people most likely to buy electric vehicles has failed (also a good reminder that being rich does not equal being intelligent)
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Reposted by Jacob Holt
Governor JB Pritzker @govpritzker.illinois.gov · 25/07/2026
Emmett Till was born right here in Chicago on July 25, 1941. And it is with deep humility and great pride that I signed legislation this week at Roberts Temple to declare his birthday as the Illinois Day of Reflection and Remembrance of Emmett Till and Mamie Till-Mobley.
Governor Pritzker, Rev. Wheeler Parker Jr., Dr. Marvel McCain Parker, and others at the Roberts Temple Church of God in Christ.Governor Pritzker holds the bill designating Emmett Till Day in Illinois.
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Jacob Holt @publius2481.bsky.social · 23/07/2026
One warning, the poll ask about the 2028 presidential race. Although the people in this poll are more likely to vote in presidential primaries, because the sample is not designed to capture the midterm electorate, it is more showing the opinions of more engaged voters
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Jacob Holt @publius2481.bsky.social · 23/07/2026
Democrats should be thrilled with this. What is interesting is the sample if anything is slightly friendly to Republicans, so this result is probably not due to sample issues emersoncollegepolling.com/july-2026-na...
emersoncollegepolling.com
July 2026 National Poll: Democrats with 11-Point Generic Ballot Advantage - Emerson Polling
Opposition to data centers growing; majority think US spending too much on Israel aid A…Full Release & Results
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Jacob Holt @publius2481.bsky.social · 23/07/2026
Do some research before you spread false information. Under Kentucky law, the governor does not have the power to name a replacement
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Jacob Holt @publius2481.bsky.social · 17/07/2026
Under Kentucky law, the governor is not allowed to appoint a replacement in the event of a Senate vacancy. I hope this is just someone that is ill informed because recommending Democrats not follow the law is suggesting they should join Republicans in undermining Democracy
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Jacob Holt @publius2481.bsky.social · 17/07/2026
Under Kentucky law, a governor cannot appoint a replacement when there is a Senate vacancy, so you are recommending something illegal
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Jacob Holt @publius2481.bsky.social · 17/07/2026
Trump’s document release appears to confirm Russia assisted Trump in the 2020 election politicalwire.com/2026/07/17/t...
politicalwire.com
Trump's Own Docs Reveal Russian Assistance
"President Donald Trump addressed the nation on Thursday night in a speech that alleged the country’s election integrity is at risk," Mediaite reports."During his 26-minute address, he urged viewers t...
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Reposted by Jacob Holt
NPR @npr.org · 16/07/2026
President Trump said TrumpRx is the biggest thing to happen in healthcare in decades. But an NPR analysis finds drugmakers are only offering deals on a few of their medicines.
n.pr
TrumpRx promised a supermarket for cheaper drugs but delivered a boutique
President Trump said TrumpRx is the biggest thing to happen in healthcare in decades. But an NPR analysis finds drugmakers are only offering deals on a few of their medicines.
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Reposted by Jacob Holt
Seth Abramson @sethabramson.bsky.social · 14/07/2026
This is very close to a confession of murder. Law enforcement cannot fire at a vehicle under these circumstances—and whoever fired would undoubtedly have been trained on that fact. There used to be a Republican Party that would howl at Armed Big Government confessing to murder.
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Jacob Holt @publius2481.bsky.social · 13/07/2026
This is heavily due to FBI Director Kash Patel’s need for attention. His saying the FBI was aiding the investigation set off the conspiracy nuts
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Jacob Holt @publius2481.bsky.social · 12/07/2026
likely still slows down the the Republican agenda. The session after the election will be more important now, although you might have more Republicans willing to buck the White House then, so not a good scenario
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Jacob Holt @publius2481.bsky.social · 12/07/2026
Now, Governor McMaster could name a replacement quickly (that would be the smart move) but he cannot wait for the special primary (which would occur August 11). However, Senator Graham was not a run of the mill Senator; he was actually the point man on some of their agenda. Thus, his death 3/
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Jacob Holt @publius2481.bsky.social · 12/07/2026
August 7th. Although the Senate is scheduled to be in session for a couple of weeks in September, they were not planning on doing much then (likely they would have recessed early to allow incumbents to campaign). Being down 2 members will make it much harder to work on their agenda. 2/
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Jacob Holt @publius2481.bsky.social · 12/07/2026
I have seen people asking how Lindsey Graham’s death will affect the Senate. In the short term, it reduces the GOP numbers to 52 (effectively 51 since Senator McConnell is unlikely to be present). The Republican plan was to have a big legislative/nomination push the next four weeks and recess 1/
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Jacob Holt @publius2481.bsky.social · 12/07/2026
Correction, the primary would be August 11.
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Jacob Holt @publius2481.bsky.social · 12/07/2026
Under South Carolina law, the filing period will open on the second Tuesday after Graham’s death (July 21) and will be open one week. The special primary occurs two weeks after the closing of the filing deadline (so it will be August 4).
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Jacob Holt @publius2481.bsky.social · 12/07/2026
With Senator Lindsey Graham’s sudden passing, I know people are interested in what happens next. In the short term, Governor McMaster appoints a replacement (which will probably happen quickly). Because Graham won the nomination for this election, the Republican Party has to name a replacement 1/
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Jacob Holt @publius2481.bsky.social · 12/07/2026
www.nbcnews.com/politics/pol...
nbcnews.com
Sen. Lindsey Graham dies at 71 after ‘brief and sudden illness’
Graham had just returned from Kyiv, Ukraine, where he met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
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Jacob Holt @publius2481.bsky.social · 08/07/2026
Given the unpopular one has been the biggest threat to Israel’s security in decades, it is not surprising American Jews prefer the Mayor of New York City. At least if you disagree with Mamdani, it is over policies where he is not committing War Crimes politicalwire.com/2026/07/08/m...
politicalwire.com
Mamdani More Popular Than Netanyahu Among U.S. Jews
An Associated Press-NORC survey found that 44% of American Jews hold a favorable opinion of New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani, compared with 39% who view him unfavorably. By contrast, just 32% of res...
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Jacob Holt @publius2481.bsky.social · 02/07/2026
On July 2, 1964 President Lyndon Johnson signed one of the most important pieces of legislation in US history, the Civil Rights Act of 1964. We should remember this day because while we cannot fix the past, we can always do better in the future
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Jacob Holt @publius2481.bsky.social · 02/07/2026
Happy Bobby Bonilla day! The day people make fun of the Mets for paying a long retired player not realizing their team is likely doing the same (in one case, that player is also Bobby Bonilla)
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Jacob Holt @publius2481.bsky.social · 01/07/2026
This is important because it suggests are willing to openly defy the clear text of the Constitution
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Jacob Holt @publius2481.bsky.social · 01/07/2026
I see people rightly complaining that 3 justices voted against birthright citizenship (despite clear constitutional text and clear original intent). It is actually worse because Kavanaugh’s concurrence says birthright citizenship is due to naturalization laws, not the Constitution
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Jacob Holt @publius2481.bsky.social · 21/06/2026
If you think about it, they are both only ever act in their own interest, so they should know what to expect from the other
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Jacob Holt @publius2481.bsky.social · 21/06/2026
Netanyahu tied his political future to Trump (because he needed to overcome his disastrous handling of the Gaza War) and of course Trump leaves him in a worse situation. Trump needs a peace deal so naturally Netanyahu tries to spoil it. How did both fail to see this coming?
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