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Jacob Holt

@publius2481.bsky.social
80 followers 41 following 196 posts

I am a Political Science professor at American University. I research American legislative institutions (mostly Congress, but also state legislatures) and legislative elections. All opinions are my own.

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Reposted by Jacob Holt
John Pavlovitz @johnpavlovitz.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
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Jacob Holt @publius2481.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
1 in 3 dollars spent on healthcare in the US is spent on administration. In comparison, Canada spends 1 out of 12 dollars spent on healthcare on administration. When people ask how we can increase coverage without increasing costs, here is a great place to start
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Jacob Holt @publius2481.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
A BIG win for democracy! Supreme Court Blocks Trump Administration Plan to Screen Mail-In Ballots www.nytimes.com/live/2026/09...
nytimes.com
Supreme Court Blocks Trump Administration Plan to Screen Mail-In Ballots
The Trump administration had asked the justices to allow a new Postal Service plan to screen ballots just weeks before the midterm elections.
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Jacob Holt @publius2481.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
A PwC survey has found 56% of CEOs report AI has failed to increase revenue or cut costs. So 56% of CEOs are saying they wasted their company’s resources. This a good example of why we should not blindly trust businesses people to be knowledgeable
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Jacob Holt @publius2481.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
Whenever Republicans complain about Muslim officials should not participate in observing 9/11, I always want to point out Osama Bin-Laden would have agreed
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Jacob Holt @publius2481.bsky.social · 30/08/2026
Good to see (for once) an article that discusses habits of successful people that focuses on what helps them succeed, not habits they have because they have money. TDLR: they ask others for help I Study Successful People. They Have One Habit in Common. www.nytimes.com/2026/08/28/o...
nytimes.com
Opinion | I Study Successful People. They Have One Habit in Common.
Being a successful self-starter doesn’t mean pulling yourself up by your bootstraps.
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Jacob Holt @publius2481.bsky.social · 15/08/2026
It is sad that in the Clacton by election the joke candidate received over 60% of the vote while Count Binface only received 27%
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Jacob Holt @publius2481.bsky.social · 13/08/2026
This is why universities should stand up to the Trump administration’s attempts to stifle free speech and academic freedom. It has no legal credibility www.nytimes.com/2026/08/13/u...
nytimes.com
Judge Dismisses Federal Government’s Antisemitism Case Against Harvard
The government argued the university had not done enough to combat antisemitism during campus protests. A judge called the incidents “isolated and episodic.”
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Jacob Holt @publius2481.bsky.social · 12/08/2026
And the last big batch from Milwaukee seals it for Crowley
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Jacob Holt @publius2481.bsky.social · 12/08/2026
Hong did not get what she needed out of the last ballots in Dane County
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Jacob Holt @publius2481.bsky.social · 12/08/2026
At this point, there do not appear to be enough votes in Dane County for Hong to overcome Crowley’s lead from just that county. Looks like it will come down to the remaining Milwaukee County returns
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Jacob Holt @publius2481.bsky.social · 12/08/2026
That recent vote count out of Milwaukee County was big for Crowley
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Jacob Holt @publius2481.bsky.social · 12/08/2026
With 92% of the vote counted, Hong leads Crowley in Lacrosse County. That is the lower level Hong wanted, so if you did not already guess, expect a close final result
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Jacob Holt @publius2481.bsky.social · 12/08/2026
We have enough votes in in Wisconsin that I think we can start speculating. So far both Crowley and Hong have reasons for disappointment. Hong was probably hoping to do better in Dane County (the state’s most liberal county), while Crowley is probably hoping to improve in Milwaukee County
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Jacob Holt @publius2481.bsky.social · 11/08/2026
Seems like Senator Cassidy should have thought about this before voting to confirm vaccine skeptic RFK Jr (who promised to do this exact thing thehill.com/homenews/sen...
thehill.com
Cassidy blasts vaccine order, saying Trump has no ‘expertise to make these changes’
Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-La.) blasted an executive order President Trump signed Monday that splits the measles, mumps and rubella (MMR) shot across three separate visits.   “I’m a doctor. This executiv…
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Jacob Holt @publius2481.bsky.social · 07/08/2026
Another good result for Democrats in Tennessee last night. Democrats won a majority on the Montgomery County Commission. Trump won Montgomery County by 18 points in 2024
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Jacob Holt @publius2481.bsky.social · 07/08/2026
Given how much the economy is hurting Republicans, this will not help (even though it is already too late to turn around public perception on the economy)
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Jacob Holt @publius2481.bsky.social · 07/08/2026
In an overlooked result from last night, Democrats won control of the Knox County school board in Tennessee (a county Trump won by almost 20 points in 2024) even though there was a competitive Republican gubernatorial primary. That bodes well for Democrats in November
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Jacob Holt @publius2481.bsky.social · 03/08/2026
www.politico.com/live-updates...
politico.com
Cornyn, Tillis confirm they will vote for Blanche
The two holdout Republicans said their deal could assuage other GOP senators, too.
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Jacob Holt @publius2481.bsky.social · 01/08/2026
Remember the Trump administration was very willing to try and prosecute innocent Americans to cover up its failures. This should alarm all Americans www.npr.org/2026/07/31/n...
npr.org
Prosecutors move to dismiss Reflecting Pool vandalism case, saying 'botched installation' to blame
The government had accused David Hearn of ripping a piece of sealant after a $14-million renovation. Hearn has repeatedly said that he simply touched the water in the pool out of curiosity last month.
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Jacob Holt @publius2481.bsky.social · 28/07/2026
So Tesla’s Cybertruck has been named the biggest flop in automotive history by Bloomberg. Somehow Elon Musk’s plan to upset the people most likely to buy electric vehicles has failed (also a good reminder that being rich does not equal being intelligent)
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Reposted by Jacob Holt
Governor JB Pritzker @govpritzker.illinois.gov · 25/07/2026
Emmett Till was born right here in Chicago on July 25, 1941. And it is with deep humility and great pride that I signed legislation this week at Roberts Temple to declare his birthday as the Illinois Day of Reflection and Remembrance of Emmett Till and Mamie Till-Mobley.
Governor Pritzker, Rev. Wheeler Parker Jr., Dr. Marvel McCain Parker, and others at the Roberts Temple Church of God in Christ.Governor Pritzker holds the bill designating Emmett Till Day in Illinois.
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Jacob Holt @publius2481.bsky.social · 23/07/2026
Democrats should be thrilled with this. What is interesting is the sample if anything is slightly friendly to Republicans, so this result is probably not due to sample issues emersoncollegepolling.com/july-2026-na...
emersoncollegepolling.com
July 2026 National Poll: Democrats with 11-Point Generic Ballot Advantage - Emerson Polling
Opposition to data centers growing; majority think US spending too much on Israel aid A…Full Release & Results
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Jacob Holt @publius2481.bsky.social · 17/07/2026
Under Kentucky law, the governor is not allowed to appoint a replacement in the event of a Senate vacancy. I hope this is just someone that is ill informed because recommending Democrats not follow the law is suggesting they should join Republicans in undermining Democracy
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Jacob Holt @publius2481.bsky.social · 17/07/2026
Trump’s document release appears to confirm Russia assisted Trump in the 2020 election politicalwire.com/2026/07/17/t...
politicalwire.com
Trump's Own Docs Reveal Russian Assistance
"President Donald Trump addressed the nation on Thursday night in a speech that alleged the country’s election integrity is at risk," Mediaite reports."During his 26-minute address, he urged viewers t...
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Reposted by Jacob Holt
NPR @npr.org · 16/07/2026
President Trump said TrumpRx is the biggest thing to happen in healthcare in decades. But an NPR analysis finds drugmakers are only offering deals on a few of their medicines.
n.pr
TrumpRx promised a supermarket for cheaper drugs but delivered a boutique
President Trump said TrumpRx is the biggest thing to happen in healthcare in decades. But an NPR analysis finds drugmakers are only offering deals on a few of their medicines.
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Reposted by Jacob Holt
Seth Abramson @sethabramson.bsky.social · 14/07/2026
This is very close to a confession of murder. Law enforcement cannot fire at a vehicle under these circumstances—and whoever fired would undoubtedly have been trained on that fact. There used to be a Republican Party that would howl at Armed Big Government confessing to murder.
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Jacob Holt @publius2481.bsky.social · 13/07/2026
This is heavily due to FBI Director Kash Patel’s need for attention. His saying the FBI was aiding the investigation set off the conspiracy nuts
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Jacob Holt @publius2481.bsky.social · 12/07/2026
I have seen people asking how Lindsey Graham’s death will affect the Senate. In the short term, it reduces the GOP numbers to 52 (effectively 51 since Senator McConnell is unlikely to be present). The Republican plan was to have a big legislative/nomination push the next four weeks and recess 1/
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Jacob Holt @publius2481.bsky.social · 12/07/2026
With Senator Lindsey Graham’s sudden passing, I know people are interested in what happens next. In the short term, Governor McMaster appoints a replacement (which will probably happen quickly). Because Graham won the nomination for this election, the Republican Party has to name a replacement 1/
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Jacob Holt @publius2481.bsky.social · 12/07/2026
www.nbcnews.com/politics/pol...
nbcnews.com
Sen. Lindsey Graham dies at 71 after ‘brief and sudden illness’
Graham had just returned from Kyiv, Ukraine, where he met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
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Jacob Holt @publius2481.bsky.social · 08/07/2026
Given the unpopular one has been the biggest threat to Israel’s security in decades, it is not surprising American Jews prefer the Mayor of New York City. At least if you disagree with Mamdani, it is over policies where he is not committing War Crimes politicalwire.com/2026/07/08/m...
politicalwire.com
Mamdani More Popular Than Netanyahu Among U.S. Jews
An Associated Press-NORC survey found that 44% of American Jews hold a favorable opinion of New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani, compared with 39% who view him unfavorably. By contrast, just 32% of res...
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Jacob Holt @publius2481.bsky.social · 02/07/2026
On July 2, 1964 President Lyndon Johnson signed one of the most important pieces of legislation in US history, the Civil Rights Act of 1964. We should remember this day because while we cannot fix the past, we can always do better in the future
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Jacob Holt @publius2481.bsky.social · 02/07/2026
Happy Bobby Bonilla day! The day people make fun of the Mets for paying a long retired player not realizing their team is likely doing the same (in one case, that player is also Bobby Bonilla)
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Jacob Holt @publius2481.bsky.social · 01/07/2026
I see people rightly complaining that 3 justices voted against birthright citizenship (despite clear constitutional text and clear original intent). It is actually worse because Kavanaugh’s concurrence says birthright citizenship is due to naturalization laws, not the Constitution
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Jacob Holt @publius2481.bsky.social · 21/06/2026
Netanyahu tied his political future to Trump (because he needed to overcome his disastrous handling of the Gaza War) and of course Trump leaves him in a worse situation. Trump needs a peace deal so naturally Netanyahu tries to spoil it. How did both fail to see this coming?
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Jacob Holt @publius2481.bsky.social · 19/06/2026
Juneteenth is an important holiday because it reminds of both our failures as a country but also that we can try and correct those failures. In a time when the current administration wants to erase history to avoid confronting unpleasant facts, it is more important we recognize this day
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Jacob Holt @publius2481.bsky.social · 01/06/2026
Republicans continue to show that they support violence and murder against any one or group they do not like. They are not a party for law and order;they are a party committed to chaos politicalwire.com/2026/06/01/m...
politicalwire.com
Minnesota GOP Held Silent Prayer for George Floyd's Killer
"Minnesota Republicans left their state convention with endorsed candidates and a renewed focus on winning statewide office in 2026, but a delegate-driven tribute to Derek Chauvin is giving Democrats ...
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Jacob Holt @publius2481.bsky.social · 31/05/2026
There is an internet meme spreading that says 50% of parents are financially supporting their adult children. This is one of those claims that misrepresents what the data shows. The 50% includes the following: 1. 18 year olds still in high school (makes sense why they are supported) 1/
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Jacob Holt @publius2481.bsky.social · 28/05/2026
Why are Americans pessimistic about the economy? A few reasons. First, post-pandemic inflation has been higher than anytime since the 1980’s, so even though it came down quickly in the Biden years, most people do not remember a time without low inflation www.theatlantic.com/ideas/2026/0...
theatlantic.com
The ‘Vibecession’ Is Over. The ‘Permacession’ Is Here.
Why Americans are so unhappy
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Jacob Holt @publius2481.bsky.social · 21/05/2026
I have seen some people claiming that with the recent gerrymandering Democrats would have to win the 2026 House vote by 10 points to win the majority. As a Political Scientist, I must say this is false. They actually need to win by 4 points to win the majority
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Jacob Holt @publius2481.bsky.social · 15/04/2026
For those of you who do not follow Canadian politics, last night the Liberal Party won 3 by-elections giving it a majority in the Canadian Parliament. Although two of the victories were expected, this is still a big deal for Prime Minister Mark Carney
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Jacob Holt @publius2481.bsky.social · 12/04/2026
Although it was not his goal, JD Vance helped rally the people of Hungary to remove autocrat Viktor Orban from power. Let’s he continues to accidentally help peacefully remove global threats to democracy
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Jacob Holt @publius2481.bsky.social · 08/04/2026
Trump is so good at negotiating a deal, that the ceasefire agreement will allow Iran to collect tolls from ships using the Strait of Hormuz. This will give Iran revenue to rebuild its military, continue to arm terrorist groups, and gives it new leverage in the Middle East.
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Jacob Holt @publius2481.bsky.social · 08/04/2026
How bad was the last night for Republicans in Wisconsin? Chris Taylor won the highest vote share a candidate for Wisconsin Supreme Court has received in a contested election since 2000
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Jacob Holt @publius2481.bsky.social · 08/04/2026
Since the result is not in doubt, the number to keep your eye on is 59.67. If Taylor exceeds that number it will beat Shirley Abrahamson’s performance in 2009, giving her the highest vote share in a contested Wisconsin Supreme Court race since 2000.
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Jacob Holt @publius2481.bsky.social · 08/04/2026
Showing how bad things are going for Republicans in Wisconsin, Taylor currently lead in Wood County with 80% of the vote in. Trump won 59% of the vote in this county in 2024
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Jacob Holt @publius2481.bsky.social · 08/04/2026
Congratulations to Chris Taylor on winning election to the Wisconsin Supreme Court! It looks like her margin of victory might be the largest in the past decade
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Jacob Holt @publius2481.bsky.social · 08/04/2026
With almost 3/4 of the vote in, Lazar is running behind Trump’s 2024 performance in Waukesha County. This is the largest Red County in Wisconsin and one where Lazar needed a strong performance
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Jacob Holt @publius2481.bsky.social · 08/04/2026
The early results from Wisconsin look good for Chris Taylor. With 95% of the vote in, it looks like Taylor will win Jefferson County (where Trump won 57% of the vote in 2024) and so far the Red counties are shifting left
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