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4/ But, the rush to move things is winding down. Help Wanted ads are now down 35% in the state for logistics firms (transport and material moving occupations) Just an economic disaster unfolding before our eyes.

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3/ Ironically, logistics has been buffered by a big surge in imports in January and Feb (here's the nation's most manufacturing reliant state (Indiana) almost doubling imports in preparation for tariffs.

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2/ This is the worst of the COVID drops . . . and it is indistinguishable from logistics right now (note this is weekly data, same source (RTI Job Listings through Chmura Economics). Economic effects are imminent, single digit weeks away from broad damage.

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1/ Active help wanted ads for logistics firms are down a stunning 40% since Jan 20, with a just astonishing 25% decline since "Liberation Day." As context, help wanted ads for "Hospitality, Events and Tourism" dropped by 42% from Feb 2020 through May 2020. #tariffs

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6/ Labor markets have remained resilient. Firms have been hoarding labor since COVID, and the inanity of the Tariff policy keeps layoffs down. But, the signals of a downturn are all present (again, here's Indiana data on crashing help wanted ads).

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3/ The import declines are shocking, given that January and February imports were wildly high, as firms prepositioned inventory in advance of expected tariffs. This graph is for 'manufacturing heavy' Indiana, but this played out identically nationwide.

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2/ Consumer spending slowed, investment spending (inventories) spiked, government spending declined, exports expanded, and imports crashed. The last of these is not part of GDP, but is interesting as it is a signal of future production and sales.

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Michael Hicks @profhicks.bsky.social · 28/04/2025

1/ Quick GDP thread. We ended 2024 with good economic conditions, indicative of a soft landing. All indications are that GDP growth continued in January and into February, stalling in the last few weeks of the quarter, giving us -0.3% growth for the quarter.

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Just stunning downgrade of the US economy . . . Not COVID, not an oil price shock or fear of international conflict. Not a financial bubble bursting, not a miscue by a major central bank, not a Y2K run up in tech stocks crumbling. This is the GOP, led by Donald Trump.

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Michael Hicks @profhicks.bsky.social · 25/04/2025

Nothing to see here folks, walk along . . . We are sleepwalking into an economic catastrophe. You can blame Donald Trump of course, but Congressional Republicans hold the key to reversing this. (source: RTI Job Postings via Chmura Economics)

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Michael Hicks @profhicks.bsky.social · 22/04/2025

1/ A substantial share of imports are actually inputs to domestic production of durable goods. Economic Theory from Adam Smith onwards predicts these imports would boost domestic productivity. What does a quick snapshot of the data say? Hmmm, yep.

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Michael Hicks @profhicks.bsky.social · 21/04/2025

Seems like building a multi-ethnic working class majority might need some different economic policies. This is a stunning -43.9 change in help wanted ads for HS grads in production occupations. Bad for everyone, but ~550% worse for HS grads than ppl with graduate degrees.

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Michael Hicks @profhicks.bsky.social · 21/04/2025

Donald Trump doesn't always get all the credit he deserves for his deep and wide-ranging skills at managing the economy. For example, he has personally solved the Truck Driver shortage in the USA. A 32.4% decline in help wanted ads since Inaugural Day.

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Michael Hicks @profhicks.bsky.social · 18/04/2025

When you don't trade with China, you see the loss of over 15 million TEU's, which would be roughly 340k truck drivers. Whooopsie . . .

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Michael Hicks @profhicks.bsky.social · 18/04/2025

When you work in an AUBER research center, you do work that actually matters in communities. This is an excerpt of a State of the City address in Connersville citing work by @profweinstein.bsky.social and me on Quality of Life. Thanks Mayor Frank #qualityoflife #indiana

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Michael Hicks @profhicks.bsky.social · 17/04/2025

1/ It's always good to learn from some some empirics. Preliminary results from both a panel and cross section model of county level employment change at NAFTA,. size matters, nonlinear effects of education (0-100), automation risk matters a bit, and trade exposure does not.

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Michael Hicks @profhicks.bsky.social · 17/04/2025

1/ Atlanta Federal Reserve GDPNow estimate just released, settling in at -2.19 for 1st Quarter. I think that's lower than what we'll see from the preliminary numbers in the next two weeks. But, recent economic activity (March/April) are more than consistent with a recession.

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9/ I project employment losses of ~55,000 jobs of which almost 20,000 will be in manufacturing. This is more than a 90k swing from my January forecast. Assuming static labor supply, the unemployment rate in 4th quarter will rise to 5.8%.

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8/ Using the short run figure inside the Indiana Econometric Model, I have the following revisions (shown with my January forecast). Overall, this is a reduction in GDP this year of just over 2.0% in the state.

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7/ The tariff effects nationally affect both intermediate and final goods. The Yale Budget Lab estimates are $4,700 per family in the short run, sliding to $2,700 over the long term. A 5.8% to 3.4% cut to family budgets.

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6/ The effect of these announcements is already occurring, and help wanted ads in Indiana are down 26% since Inaugural Day. Help wanted ads by education level are down by ~40%, suggesting deeper cuts to more permanent job types. This alone is shockingly bad.

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5/ Looking at Indiana manufactured imports, which are mostly intermediate goods, the 'Liberation Day" and revised tariffs hardly change the effective tariff rate on Hoosier businesses. The total size of these tariffs is roughly equal to ALL STATE TAX Revenues for a year.

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3/ This is consistent with the record levels of economic policy uncertainty that the Trump Administration has imposed on our economy.

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