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Reposted by Philippe Papin

National Hurricane Center @nhc-atlantic.extwitter.link · 05/10/2026

8 am EDT Oct 5 - A trough in the southwestern Gulf of America is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Gradual development is becoming more likely, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the middle or latter portion of the week. This system is expected to... 🔗 hurricanes.gov

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Reposted by Philippe Papin

EUMETSAT @eumetsat.int · 13/08/2026

Yesterday, the Moon’s shadow crossed parts of Europe during a total solar eclipse! 🌖 Our satellites captured the event over Earth from 36,000km in space, featuring live imagery during RTBF’s special broadcast. See the full animation & imagery in our Image of the Week: bit.ly/3SrZCi5 🛰️

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Reposted by Philippe Papin

Dakota Smith @weatherdak.bsky.social · 11/04/2026

The life and death of twin cyclones in the West Pacific. A fascinating evolution and interaction.

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Reposted by Philippe Papin

cira-csu.bsky.social @cira-csu.bsky.social · 23/02/2026

A stunning satellite shot of a powerful nor'easter.

Still satellite imagery of a nor'easter. This image contains the GeoColor product from the GOES-19 weather satellite from the morning of 2026-02-23.

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Reposted by Philippe Papin

National Weather Service @nws.noaa.gov · 29/01/2026

Further increases in confidence for an impactful winter storm are noted across the Carolinas with greater uncertainty still farther up the coast.

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Reposted by Philippe Papin

National Weather Service @nws.noaa.gov · 23/01/2026

Take this storm seriously. Moderate to major impacts are expected from the Central US through to the Northeast through the weekend. - Hazardous to impossible driving conditions are expected. Avoid travel if at all possible. - Widespread closures and disruption to infrastructure may also occur.

Winter Storm Severity Index. No more important added content to add from what is in the post text.

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Reposted by Philippe Papin

Tomer Burg @burgwx.bsky.social · 20/01/2026

I’d be very careful with posting snow maps for the weekend storm this far out. There’s still significant uncertainty with the amplitude & progression of both SW US + north stream troughs, which drives both the event duration & how far north heavy snow expands into the Northeast.

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Reposted by Philippe Papin

National Weather Service @nws.noaa.gov · 16/01/2026

The National Weather Service is now hiring for both entry-level and seasoned meteorologist positions. Apply by January 29! The entry-level positions are available in: ▪️ Houston, TX ▪️ Ft. Worth, TX ▪️ Hastings, NE ▪️ Great Falls, MT ▪️ Marquette, MI Apply: www.usajobs.gov/job/854675700

3 by 3 collage of NWS employees around the country

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Philippe Papin @pppapin.bsky.social · 05/01/2026

I think @discord.com has taken up the spot that old school bulletin board forums like Storm2k, Wunderground, EasternUSWx had. 2015-2020 was the golden age of #wxtwitter but now that misinformation has taken a hold there it is hard to see a path where the online wx community is more unified again.

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Reposted by Philippe Papin

National Weather Service @nws.noaa.gov · 23/12/2025

Here is the latest update from WPC on the California atmospheric river event where a moderate to high risk of flash flooding is anticipated for southern California on Wednesday Christmas Eve. Please stay safe through the upcoming Christmas holiday. www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/key_messages...

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Reposted by Philippe Papin

National Weather Service @nws.noaa.gov · 23/12/2025

Unseasonable warmth is forecast across a large portion of the Lower 48 this week. High temps will soar to 30-40 degrees above normal, with some areas as much as 50 degrees above normal. Dozens of daily temp records could be broken. How warm will it be where you live this week? Check weather.gov.

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Reposted by Philippe Papin

National Weather Service @nws.noaa.gov · 19/12/2025

Wildfires can spread quickly — by the time one is nearby, you may not have much time. Have an evacuation plan, and prepare an emergency supply kit ahead of time. Listen to local officials for emergency information and any evacuation orders.

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Philippe Papin @pppapin.bsky.social · 08/12/2025

Nice! Thanks for producing that on such short notice!

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Philippe Papin @pppapin.bsky.social · 05/12/2025

Awesome! Yeah it’s a great way to highlight the evolution of these important environmental values for TC activity.

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Reposted by Philippe Papin

National Weather Service @nws.noaa.gov · 05/12/2025

❄️ D.C.'s first measurable snow of the season covers the capital in a hush of flurries. Winter is making a return with cooler than normal temperatures in the forecast for the next several days. Stay up to date with the latest forecast at weather.gov. Credit: Bob Hyatt, NWS

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Philippe Papin @pppapin.bsky.social · 05/12/2025

Sad but true 😔… felt this a lot of times in upstate SC.

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Philippe Papin @pppapin.bsky.social · 05/12/2025

Really love the idea you have of producing joint probabilities of relevant TC env, but can’t help but wonder how sensitive this result is to the thresholds you have chosen. Maybe try RH >70%, SSTs >27C, & shear <7.5 m/s. May also need to use vortex removal to get rid of TC influenced environments.

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Philippe Papin @pppapin.bsky.social · 05/12/2025

Interesting plot… but a little confused on the AEW activity right at the end of the plot in late Oct right before Nov. Aside from the wave the spawned #Melissa what other waves were contributing to the index… could this be a case of much activity produced by one single TC in the MDR box?

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Reposted by Philippe Papin

cira-csu.bsky.social @cira-csu.bsky.social · 01/12/2025

Persistent fog and low stratus clouds have been plaguing California's Central Valley for the last week.

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Reposted by Philippe Papin

Climatologist49 @climatologist49.bsky.social · 01/12/2025

December is the coldest month of the year for most areas from the Rocky Mountains to the Pacific Ocean.

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Philippe Papin @pppapin.bsky.social · 01/12/2025

That’s great to hear the progress in this space! Really with future funding for supercomputers likely partitioning between both CPUs & GPUs, it’s going to be increasingly critical going forward for physics based models behind able to run with CPUs/GPUs. Looking forward to seeing the developments!

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Philippe Papin @pppapin.bsky.social · 01/12/2025

They won’t go away *if* funding is provided for these critical datasets. We are at a pretty precarious crossroads in ATMS. A big advantage of ML-based modeling techniques is efficiency gains using GPUs. We should also spend similar efforts rewriting NWP for GPUs for similar parallelization gains.

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Reposted by Philippe Papin

National Hurricane Center Bot @nhcbot.bsky.social · 30/11/2025

11/30: Today is the last day of the 2025 hurricane season. The month of November has proven to be very quiet this year, with no named storms during the month. There weren't even any disturbances mentioned in the Tropical Weather Outlook the en... x.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/199509624…

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Philippe Papin @pppapin.bsky.social · 30/11/2025

Interesting to see that the only period where the shear went above normal in Aug-Sep-Oct was at end of October, when #Melissa was in the Caribbean. There was significant shear affecting it from 10-21 to 10-24, but if there was no vortex removal, some of the increase may be the TC vortex itself?

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Philippe Papin @pppapin.bsky.social · 30/11/2025

The last sentence resonated with me most. We now have a TC ensemble, in addition to hurricane regional models, capable of forecasting high-end TC intensity. In Melissa's case, combo of HAFS-A/B & Google DeepMind increased confidence in a Category 5 forecast. Human interpretation & NWP still vital.

Last sentence in the NPR article on "As the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season ends, the future of forecasting is AI"

URL: https://www.npr.org/2025/11/29/nx-s1-5604290/atlantic-hurricane-season-forecast-ai-google

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Philippe Papin @pppapin.bsky.social · 28/11/2025

Impressed with the resilience of #Senyar… looks like a coherent circulation may have made it across #Malaysia. Nice radar coverage showing the last 24h revolution as it crossed from the Malacca Strait ➡️ South China Sea. Imagery courtesy of @zoom.earth

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Reposted by Philippe Papin

National Weather Service @nws.noaa.gov · 26/11/2025

Is your vehicle ready for the winter? Watch this brief video to know what needs to be in your emergency kit and how to winterize your vehicle. For more winter weather safety tips visit weather.gov/safety.

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Reposted by Philippe Papin

National Weather Service @nws.noaa.gov · 25/11/2025

Following the ongoing winter storm across the Upper Midwest, another storm system is forecast to impact parts of the Midwest and Great Lakes with wintry weather this weekend. Keep an eye on the forecast and check weather.gov for more information. ❄️

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Reposted by Philippe Papin

National Weather Service @nws.noaa.gov · 26/11/2025

Here are the latest key messages for the current storm impacting the Great Lakes. Keep up to date with the latest forecast at weather.gov and find the latest storm summary here: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/...

Key Messages for Thanksgiving Week Winter Storm issued on Wed, Nov 26, 2025, 3:25 AM CST.
- A storm will move into the western Great Lakes today, bringing blizzard conditions, strong winds, intense snowfall rates (primarily along the southern shore of Lake Superior), & lake effect snow.
- Snowfall will end over Minnesota later today. Heavy snow with rates of 1-2 in/hr will continue over far northern Wisconsin and especially into the western portions of the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. Lake effect snow will start over Lower Michigan and then downwind of Lakes Erie and Ontario later today and overnight.
- Blizzard conditions will make travel impossible at times across portions of the western Great Lakes this morning and overnight. Lake effect snow of 1-2ft, and locally higher, is forecast downwind of western Lake Superior over northern Wisconsin into the western U.P. of Michigan. Heavy snow and gusty winds will commence downwind of Lake Erie between Cleveland and Buffalo tomorrow.

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Reposted by Philippe Papin

NOAA @noaa.gov · 25/11/2025

JUST IN: The 2025 Atlantic #HurricaneSeason ends on Nov. 30 with 13 named storms, including 5 hurricanes, of which 4 intensified to be major hurricanes. Find our news release, images and wrapup video at: noaa.gov/news-release... @nws.noaa.gov

NOAA’s GOES-19 satellite captured Hurricanes Imelda (left) and Humberto (right) churning off the U.S. east coast on Sept. 30, 2025 (Credit: NOAA).

The Atlantic basin saw 13 named storms in 2024, with four reaching major hurricane status. They were: Andrea, Barry, Chantal, Dexter, Erin, Fernand, Gabrielle, Humberto, Imelda, Jerry, Karen, Lorenzo and Melissa. Tropical cyclone names are selected by the World Meteorological Organization. (Image credit: NOAA)

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Philippe Papin @pppapin.bsky.social · 25/11/2025

The National Hurricane Center has put together a 2025 Verification Preview. Covers a prelim view on seasonal track, intensity, & genesis 🌀forecasts. Also touching on rapid intensification forecasts & Melissa which was the most impactful storm of the year. URL: www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/NHC_Veri...

Title & Abstract of the National Hurricane Center Verification Report Preview.

Figure 5 of the Verification Report Preview

Figure 7 of the report comparing NHC intensity forecasts of Michael (2018), Dorian (2019), Otis (2023) vs. Melissa.

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Reposted by Philippe Papin

Clark Evans @clarkevanswx.github.io · 22/11/2025

After many long months, I’m excited to announce: we’re hiring! GSL through CIRES is looking to hire a land-surface model developer. Come join us in developing the next generation of storm-scale NWP for NOAA & community! Closes 12/12, pls contact me w/ questions. jobs.colorado.edu/jobs/JobDeta...

jobs.colorado.edu

CIRES / NOAA Global Systems Laboratory, Land Surface Modeler

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Philippe Papin @pppapin.bsky.social · 24/11/2025

What is poor practice during Hurricane season is also poor practice in Winter Season. Do not share deterministic models forecasts >5-7 days out. Snowfall maps are an especially poor choice of model graphic to share with much lead time. My 2️⃣🪙

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Reposted by Philippe Papin

Alan Gerard @wxmanms1.bsky.social · 23/11/2025

A horrific accident early Saturday morning left a car in the side of an NWS office and the office relying on the NWS service backup system. Service backup is important in situations like this - but also is being increasingly used due to NWS staffing and infrastructure issues. tinyurl.com/4txuyhbz

tinyurl.com

Tragic vehicle accident takes an NWS office offline

Looking at how the NWS offices back each other up. Severe weather and flash flooding in the south central US next couple of days.

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Philippe Papin @pppapin.bsky.social · 23/11/2025

We just so happened to be driving along the San Luis Reservoir on Hwy 152 where this was observed today. A good 10F difference between being in the fog (49F) vs in the clear (60F)! #CAwx

View of the San Luis Reservoir where low clouds are draining in from the Central Valley.

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Philippe Papin @pppapin.bsky.social · 23/11/2025

Love observing the local effects of terrain on the boundary layer fog in California. For instance, Check out the drainage into the San Luis Reservoir where low level flow is forced to curve anticyclonic into the local saddle point of the Coastal Range. Makes for some photogenic views!

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Philippe Papin @pppapin.bsky.social · 21/11/2025

That’s a lot of intense hurricanes over the past 5 years 😵‍💫 We added 4 more to the list this year, #Erin, #Gabrielle, #Humberto, & #Melissa.

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Reposted by Philippe Papin

NSF NCAR & UCAR @ncar-ucar.bsky.social · 19/11/2025

Hurricane Melissa produced the fastest hurricane winds to be recorded by a dropsonde, verified by reviewing data at NSF NCAR! Hurricane Melissa’s 252 mph wind gust surpassed the previous record from Typhoon Megi over the Western Pacific in 2010, where a dropsonde measured wind gusts of 248 mph.

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Philippe Papin @pppapin.bsky.social · 17/11/2025

I like an edit feature where it still shows the post history (similar to what facebook does when you edit posts). But agree needs to only be available for a short period of time after the original post (to fix typos and other obvious errors).

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Philippe Papin @pppapin.bsky.social · 17/11/2025

Still waiting for @bsky.app to build out functionality with direct messages. Namely, allow users to include images/videos in messages & ability to DM multiple users at once. Twitter's botched update on their platform for DMs should provide motivation to move here, but need similar functionality.⏰

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Philippe Papin @pppapin.bsky.social · 16/11/2025

Haha, I'm not even sure I had internet back then, but I remember both the 1995/1996 seasons as being the first couple that got me into weather. The rest as they say "is history"... what a period it has been.

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Philippe Papin @pppapin.bsky.social · 16/11/2025

Nice summary of the 2025 season Brian! And man that is an impressive streak of posting. Sad to hear 2026 might be your last year of posts, but you should be proud of your efforts all through the years to maintain such a consistent record of articles. Bravo 👏

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Philippe Papin @pppapin.bsky.social · 12/11/2025

Seems like the #Aurora is already visible over a large chunk of the CONUS tonight thanks to the #CME's over the last few days from a couple of significant X-class solar flares.

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Philippe Papin @pppapin.bsky.social · 11/11/2025

I love how the wake-free zone of stratocu nicely corresponds to the area of >50F dewpoints advected off the Florida Peninsula & adjacent Gulf coast area. Taking a while for the sfc fluxes to moisten boundary layer enough to reach convective temp. Plot via @burgwx.bsky.social's RTMA analysis. #FLwx

Tomer Burg's RTMA centered over the Southeast. Plotted is dewpoint (shaded, deg F), 10 m wind (barbs), and MSLP (every 2 mb, thin black lines).

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Philippe Papin @pppapin.bsky.social · 11/11/2025

I'll just drop this in here too. bsky.app/profile/pppa...

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Philippe Papin @pppapin.bsky.social · 11/11/2025

So it only tied a record low that day -- which was also set on 2/20/1972. I see that in the threads data too. I was specifically talking about setting a new record low at #KMIA, though it looks dependent if you take the record back to 1895 or just back to 1937. Ahh the devil is in the details.

10 minimum temperatures for Feb 20th. Two dates set the record minimum (2/20/1972 & 2/20/2015).

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Philippe Papin @pppapin.bsky.social · 11/11/2025

A few addendum: 1) Since posting, the CLIMIA came out indicating the low was actually 48°F! 2) Some of those record highs likely occurred on the same calendar day, but in different years b/w 2014-2025. 3) I'm using climo data 3/1/37 to now, which is the same period in xmacis.rcc-acis.org

11/11/25 Climate Report for KMIA (Miami International Airport).

xmACIS2 minimum temperature values at KMIA (records going back to 3/1/1937).

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Philippe Papin @pppapin.bsky.social · 11/11/2025

Haha of course I sent this post just before the climo report showed it actually got down to 48F. Should have clarified I only was using the #KMIA climo data from the Iowa State Mesonet page, which only goes back to 3/1/1937 -- not sure where Miami station data was located before that date.

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Philippe Papin @pppapin.bsky.social · 11/11/2025

Another way to put it -- in time it took to get 2️⃣ daily record lows at #KMIA, we set new record highs for more than a quarter of days in the calendar year b/w Nov 2014 to Nov 2025 (97/365 ~ 27% of all days). So yes, a remarkable cold snap, but got to put in proper context of record tends. #FLwx

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