iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

All over now in Secret Harbour -- 13,000+ votes added from Secret Harbour Early Polling Place (around half the total count) are even stronger for One Nation that those counted earlier. www.pollbludger.net/2026/08/29/s...

Secret Harbour by-election live - The Poll Bludger

Live results and commentary from Western Australia's Secret Harbour state by-election.

070

Reposted by William Bowe

Possum @pollytics.bsky.social · 29/08/2026

I had access to old Labor party scrutineer stuff when I was doing things in Qld, and historically, it wasn't irregular that in seats where One Nation got the highest first preference, they also got the highest last preference. That carried across through time, and seems kind of apt elsewhere now.

061

After Farrer, this is the second by-election where I've been surprised by One Nation's weak preference flow: grist for the theory that the remaining Lib voters are moderates. Also (very likely) the second by-election where it ultimately didn't matter.

141

A bit of a wrinkle here: the first TCP results show preferences flowing surprisingly heavily to Labor. My system is still calling it for One Nation, but I'm no longer sure that it should be.

140

Looking good for One Nation in Secret Harbour. My results system is calling it for them, and it's doing so on the basis of a more modest projection than the ABC's (7.7% margin rather than 10.5%). www.pollbludger.net/2026/08/29/s...

032

First result from Secret Harbour is a batch of 1277 postals. It's more than consistent with a One Nation win, though Labor can hope on the tendency of early batches of postals to lean conservative. Full coverage: www.pollbludger.net/2026/08/29/s...

Secret Harbour by-election live - The Poll Bludger

Live results and commentary from Western Australia's Secret Harbour state by-election.

110

William Bowe @pollbludger.bsky.social · 16/05/2026

Labor look like they've scraped home in the Stafford by-election, but my system isn't quite calling it yet. They lead by 768 at the end of the night, which I expect late-arriving postals will cut by about half. www.pollbludger.net/2026/05/16/s...

041

William Bowe @pollbludger.bsky.social · 16/05/2026

After a bad result for Labor in the Chermside South booth (with 9.1% now counted, still nothing on TCP): pollbludger.net/qld2026by1/R...

021

William Bowe @pollbludger.bsky.social · 16/05/2026

Queensland's Stafford by-election so far living up to expectations of a tight result in seat Labor holds by 5.3%. My system is generously still allowing the chance of a GRN win. Primary votes only so far, with 3.6% counted out of expected turnout of 80%. pollbludger.net/2026/05/16/s...

021

William Bowe @pollbludger.bsky.social · 02/05/2026

My results system is calling Nepean a LIB RETAIN. Quite a few of the best areas for One Nation are still outstanding, but even so, they're running well behind the second-placed independent. www.pollbludger.net/2026/05/02/n...

0174

William Bowe @pollbludger.bsky.social · 22/03/2026

The Liberals have made a late rally in Morphett after doing quite a lot better at the electorate's early voting centre than they did on election day. Now lineball. pollbludger.net/sa2026/Resul...

The Poll Bludger: South Australian Election 2026

Live election results and projections for the 2026 South Australian state election

042

William Bowe @pollbludger.bsky.social · 21/03/2026

Not I know it seems to be working, a plug for the Poll Bludger's South Australian election live results system: www.pollbludger.net/sa2026/Resul...

The Poll Bludger: South Australian Election 2026

Live election results and projections for the 2026 Australian South Australian election

0132

William Bowe @pollbludger.bsky.social · 10/03/2026

Exactly that: I estimate the primaries at ALP 42.7% (-2.7%), LNP 39.6% (+1.6%), GRN 13.0% (+1.4%). Would no doubt have had the effect you assumed in earlier times.

041

William Bowe @pollbludger.bsky.social · 10/03/2026

Big losers: mooted future ALP leader Meaghan Scanlon, whose seat of Gaven becomes borderline unwinnable, and Katter's Australian Party, which stands to lose one of the two seats left to it after its Hinchinbrook by-election defeat

130

After strong pre-poll results for the LNP, my system is now calling the Hinchinbrook by-election www.pollbludger.net/2025/11/29/h...

Hinchinbrook by-election live - The Poll Bludger

Live results and commentary from the Queensland state by-election for Hinchinbrook.

080

The race is tightening in Hinchinbrook as larger centres come in, the early rural booths having swung massively against KAP. LNP still favoured, but a different dynamic on pre-polls could change things. www.pollbludger.net/2025/11/29/h...

040

Katter's have a vague hope in the Hinchinbrook by-election stemming from the fact that the swing against is weaker at the Townsville end than in the rural booths that have mostly reported so far. www.pollbludger.net/2025/11/29/h...

041

William Bowe @pollbludger.bsky.social · 13/09/2025

The Katter's vote has fallen by more than half across six rural booths in the Hinchinbrook by-election, leaving the LNP well placed to gain the seat. I'm projecting a One Nation vote of 15.4%, compared with 4.6%, which they would need to improve on to get in contention.

070

I'm now calling #kiamavotes for Labor www.pollbludger.net/2025/09/13/k...

0160

William Bowe @pollbludger.bsky.social · 13/09/2025

Not calling it yet, but with three booths in on the primary vote, the Liberals look well short of where they need to be in #kiamavotes pollbludger.net/2025/09/13/k...

090

Reposted by William Bowe

Crikey @crikey.com.au · 21/07/2025

Tasmanian voters have been treated to a state election result that pleased no one and resolved nothing, @pollbludger.bsky.social writes.

crikey.com.au

Tasmanian Labor just bought itself an extra year in opposition

194

William Bowe @pollbludger.bsky.social · 19/07/2025

Now it's Labor's turn to "wait for the pre-polls to come in" #tasvotes

0241

William Bowe @pollbludger.bsky.social · 19/07/2025

Eric Abetz on the ABC wishes he has 2024 figures for comparison from Irishtown. Right here, Eric. Swings shown below compared with that booth from last time. #tasvotes

140

William Bowe @pollbludger.bsky.social · 19/07/2025

First booths are in for #tasvotes and the big news is that my live results system seems to be working. Huge result for the Liberals in Irishtown, FWIW (not much). Follow the action here: www.pollbludger.net/tas2025/Resu...

073

William Bowe @pollbludger.bsky.social · 17/07/2025

You appear to be asking for the dataset, which you're never going to get, but the question of who's paying for it (nobody, in this case) is answered in the methodology statement d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/Yo...

d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net

110

William Bowe @pollbludger.bsky.social · 20/05/2025

The AEC confirms this is the final result (pending preference distribution and possible recount) -- the 86 have Senate votes only.

4186

William Bowe @pollbludger.bsky.social · 20/05/2025

Tim Wilson's lead in Goldstein in today from 206 to 128. 86 envelopes awaiting scrutiny, but some of them will presumably be rejected. www.pollbludger.net/fed2025/Resu...

The Poll Bludger: Federal Election 2025

Live election results and projections for the 2025 Australian federal election

3183

William Bowe @pollbludger.bsky.social · 19/05/2025

It's to do with me being on the road, but it's updating for at least the time being and I'm hoping I can keep that going

120

William Bowe @pollbludger.bsky.social · 19/05/2025

2500 words on Chinese Australians losing faith with the Liberals, and the only mention of the party whose leader said Australia was in danger of being swamped by them, to whom the Libs directed preferences, is an utterly irrelevant shot at the teals theaustralian.com.au/inquirer/can...

theaustralian.com.au

284

William Bowe @pollbludger.bsky.social · 19/05/2025

Modelling the Senate outcome. A close race in WA gives One Nation a chance of a third seat, and some cold water for The Australian's enthusiasm about Jacqui Lambie losing her seat www.pollbludger.net/2025/05/18/s...

Senate counting: week three - The Poll Bludger

A second attempt to model the Senate outcome, with some finer points concerning the composition of the cross-bench chiefly at issue.

2151

Reposted by William Bowe

Crikey @crikey.com.au · 16/05/2025

Australians take a lot of pride in their preferential voting system. But does it actually suck? Robert Lechte argues it doesn't reflect voter sentiment: www.crikey.com.au/2025/05/16/a... William Bowe argues it ensures government accountability: www.crikey.com.au/2025/05/16/a...

20146

William Bowe @pollbludger.bsky.social · 13/05/2025

Bradfield back in play after a batch of out-of-division pre-polls breaks 298-179 to Nicolette Boele, cutting her deficit from 178 to 59. Based on how late counting has been counting, my probability estimate is probably an under-estimate. www.pollbludger.net/fed2025/Resu...

The Poll Bludger: Federal Election 2025

Live election results and projections for the 2025 Australian federal election

0436

William Bowe @pollbludger.bsky.social · 12/05/2025

My database records 13: ten Labor (Plibersek, Leigh, Albanese, Rishworth, Husic, Dick, Thistlethwaite, Rowland and Chalmers) and three Nationals (Chester, Joyce, Webster). Rishworth an interesting case: she gained Kingston from the Libs in 2007, and redistributions have done her more harm than good.

1101

William Bowe @pollbludger.bsky.social · 11/05/2025

Queensland is ALP 2, LNP 2, GRN 1, ON 1, and NSW, VIC and SA are ALP 3, L-NP 2, GRN 1. With the territories status quo, likely final numbers are ALP 30, L-NP 27, GRN 11, ON 2, plus Lambie, Pocock, Babet, Tyrell, Thorpe and Payman.

2168

William Bowe @pollbludger.bsky.social · 11/05/2025

According to the Poll Bludger's sophistimucated modelling, two Senate contests are in doubt: WA, either ALP 3, LIB 2, GRN 1 or (less likely) ALP 2, LIB 2, GRN 1, ON 1; and TAS, either ALP 2, LIB 2, GRN 1, JLN 1 or (less likely) ALP 3, LIB 1, GRN 1, JLN 1. pollbludger.net/2025/05/11/l...

Late counting: the Senate - The Poll Bludger

A look at the other aspect of the Labor triumph: a Senate in which the balance of power has been titled distinctly leftward.

062

Reposted by William Bowe

Crikey @crikey.com.au · 04/05/2025

Labor won a landslide with barely a third of the vote. Now all eyes will move to the Senate, with a shift leftwards on the cards if the Coalition's disastrous lower house vote is anything to go by.

crikey.com.au

Forget the lower house, the game-changing shift could be Senate's tilt to the left

The Coalition looks set to be reduced to 27 seats — two fewer than at any time since the Senate assumed its current size in 1984.

1277

William Bowe @pollbludger.bsky.social · 03/05/2025

With polls closed on the eastern seaboard, the Poll Bludger's live results feature is in business: pollbludger.net/fed2025/Resu...