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Reposted by Designing Better Artefacts

bryan newbold @bnewbold.net · 07/10/2026

ah damn, RIP Margaret Hamilton. she took safety-critical software engineering seriously, and got people to the moon and back. news.mit.edu/2026/margare...

old photos of a woman (Margaret Hamilton) standing next to a tall stack of books (printouts of Apollo space mission software source code)

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Designing Better Artefacts @pmholling.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

It should only be ‘mind breaking’ if you think not refineries are evenly distributed and crude oil is truly fungible and has no effect on output fractions. Once you account for these not being true the current situation becomes highly likely.

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Reposted by Designing Better Artefacts

Jim Waterson @jim.londoncentric.media · 18/09/2026

I spend my week crossing london on a bike and increasingly that means cycling alongside Wayve/Waymo robotaxis. it’s uncomfortable. they give you so much space, don’t do a close pass while accelerating as lights go red. So unnerving if you cycle on assumption everyone’s mental and wants to kill you.

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Designing Better Artefacts @pmholling.bsky.social · 16/09/2026

Of course replacing that power costs a lot more

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Designing Better Artefacts @pmholling.bsky.social · 16/09/2026

When it happens correctly it is basically a wash to consumers. Higher BSUoS but lower CfD levy.

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Designing Better Artefacts @pmholling.bsky.social · 16/09/2026

They get paid for whatever their contract to deliver before constraints. However since CfDs are settled based on the metered delivery they miss out on the CfD subsidy (based on market price and strike price). So the constraint payment is meant to cover that loss.

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Designing Better Artefacts @pmholling.bsky.social · 16/09/2026

Yes, and if they get caught the possible penalties include loosing their generators license (though that is unlikely to ever occur). More likely restitution and some form of fine. Of course the challenge is proving it. Easy to hide things in maintenance costs.

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Designing Better Artefacts @pmholling.bsky.social · 16/09/2026

The ‘turn down’ price is supposed to recompense the delta in costs as they still get paid for the power delivered. For CfD generation that is the difference between market price and the CfD strike price. In some cases it is negative. It isn’t perfect, but BMs being curtailed can’t just bid anything

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Designing Better Artefacts @pmholling.bsky.social · 11/09/2026

As such they pay more for the transmission grid than they they otherwise would, and overtime others pay less.

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Designing Better Artefacts @pmholling.bsky.social · 11/09/2026

For example the current charging model should have users in Scotland and some of England and Wales ‘getting paid’ small amounts to use power in peak times. However, that was deemed a ‘bad’ outcome so politically those consumers cannot benefit.

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Designing Better Artefacts @pmholling.bsky.social · 11/09/2026

What’s even more aggravating is that due to market design that cost is often generated by a small subset of users but mutualised so everyone pays. Future TNUoS charges may or may not equalise this issue

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Designing Better Artefacts @pmholling.bsky.social · 11/09/2026

Linking to the original source. The key outtake from this is not the payments to the generators to curtail as that is basically a wash between balancing and CfD levy, but purchasing power twice to use it once. www.nao.org.uk/reports/upgr...

nao.org.uk

Upgrading the electricity transmission network - NAO report

Upgrades to the electricity grid are struggling to keep up with the government's Clean Power 2030 schedule risking higher consumer bills

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Designing Better Artefacts @pmholling.bsky.social · 11/09/2026

$108/bbl oil is bad, but adding >$100/bbl crack (and rising) spreads on top makes things much more fun.

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Designing Better Artefacts @pmholling.bsky.social · 26/08/2026

The final part in a well written series that explains the ‘design intent’ in the different parts of the electricity market. The unintended consequences of those dispirit choices interacting and maybe where we should look to fix things.

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Designing Better Artefacts @pmholling.bsky.social · 24/08/2026

Still poor from an energy and point of view when compared to solar and BEVs

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Designing Better Artefacts @pmholling.bsky.social · 24/08/2026

It would also have the benefit of producing fewer emissions than current fuel and not be over oxygenated like alcohol.

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Designing Better Artefacts @pmholling.bsky.social · 24/08/2026

What is looking borderline ridiculous going forward is that the technology in carbon concentration is now reaching the point that using the land for solar to create fully synthetic liquid HC fuels from solar generated electricity would use less land.

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Designing Better Artefacts @pmholling.bsky.social · 20/08/2026

What do the dashed vs solid lines represent and why does it only go back to 2019?

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Designing Better Artefacts @pmholling.bsky.social · 19/08/2026

Given that cost of production as a multiplier on the gas price decreases as gas prices increase, this indicates that we have a rising compounded risk premium (base was at about 2.27X for Dec 25 at this point last year, and peak was 2.79X).

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Designing Better Artefacts @pmholling.bsky.social · 19/08/2026

Currently Dec 26 gas is trading at 162.05 p/therm, or £55.29/MWh. Public power base is at £134.4/MWh or 2.43X, peak is a bit steeper at £158.04 or 2.86X. Things were actually better last year, both in terms of price and multiplier.

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Designing Better Artefacts @pmholling.bsky.social · 19/08/2026

So we are not that far from being able to beat that efficiency, though capital costs are going to be high for a long time. Of course if you can create synth CH4 there is no good reason not to go to more volumetrically dense hydro-carbons.

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Designing Better Artefacts @pmholling.bsky.social · 19/08/2026

CH4 as an energy storage and distribution system cannot be net zero as it cannot be made leak proof. The same holds true for H2. The challenge of course with any 'synthetic' hydrocarbon fuel is the challenge of concentrating CO2. Turns out plants aren't that efficient at that either.

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Designing Better Artefacts @pmholling.bsky.social · 19/08/2026

As always the problem is that demand will outstrip the natural supply so we have folks that want subsidies to create CH4 feed stocks specifically for this purpose. Like other bio-fuels this is a fools errand as it completely destroys any near Net Zero possibility

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Designing Better Artefacts @pmholling.bsky.social · 19/08/2026

It primarily makes sense if they CH4 was going to be produced and released anyhow as part of other value adding processes. Even if you assume that the resulting CO2 is 'fossil' it is still better to use it then vent it.

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Designing Better Artefacts @pmholling.bsky.social · 19/08/2026

People who own properties will go for shorter stays other times of the year, but the summer is where the money is at (you have to want to work 12-hour days for 10-weeks though)

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Designing Better Artefacts @pmholling.bsky.social · 19/08/2026

To be fair I wouldn't necessarily want to spend my summer at the same place every year. However, it can definitely be made to work. The key is to stagger holidays again. This extends the season. In the US there are entire beach communities built around the 10-week summer period.

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Designing Better Artefacts @pmholling.bsky.social · 14/08/2026

They are close enough in the column that refineries can comparatively easily change output ratios focusing more on one than the other. Not the case of lighter outputs, eg petrol/gasoline.

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Designing Better Artefacts @pmholling.bsky.social · 14/08/2026

It requires, basically, a complete re-design of the carrier’s internal systems and architecture.

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Designing Better Artefacts @pmholling.bsky.social · 06/08/2026

Grid costs are also much much greater. A single site that ties into the HV or HV grid, with direct metering is much cheaper to provision than a bunch of distributed LV systems, At least when local generation outstrips local demand.

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Designing Better Artefacts @pmholling.bsky.social · 30/07/2026

That’s about normal. Looking at click and collect prices for a Ralph’s brioche buns range from$3.99 to $4.99 and veg trays a bit cheaper than above $6.99 for similar weight for the cheapest.

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Designing Better Artefacts @pmholling.bsky.social · 30/07/2026

I was going to guess $4.99 on the bread because that’s the prices that stuck in my head from last year for a loaf

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Reposted by Designing Better Artefacts

Doctor Memory @blank.org · 25/07/2026

“If something is worth doing, it’s even worth doing badly” is an underrated maxim. Nobody is keeping score. Nobody is handing out medals for executive function. (But they should.) Dishes washed half-assedly are still less dirty than when they started.

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Designing Better Artefacts @pmholling.bsky.social · 25/07/2026

Result was NESO paid a lot of money to get very little.

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Designing Better Artefacts @pmholling.bsky.social · 25/07/2026

There were some relatively big issues exposed by the ‘event’. It has put to bed the idea that winter is the only critical planning period (we knew this was coming), plus highlighted that the current market structure is not really capable of ‘managing’ the grid.

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Designing Better Artefacts @pmholling.bsky.social · 23/07/2026

Rough’s max delivery rates were in the order of the smallest medium term storage site. It would provide essentially no buffer against an extended LNG delivery hiatus

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Designing Better Artefacts @pmholling.bsky.social · 23/07/2026

Liverpool has it for Merseyrail, both their own lines and branded Northern Rail lines, but don’t know about busses

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Designing Better Artefacts @pmholling.bsky.social · 23/07/2026

The concept is definitely rolling out more and more places. I believe the entirety of the Netherlands has it now, or will soon. More and more English cities are getting this. Manchester on buses and trams (up to a weekly ticket equivalent), trains coming eventually

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Designing Better Artefacts @pmholling.bsky.social · 22/07/2026

Given that today’s inventions follow prior prior ones, by definition all of the enabling inventions are more important than AI.

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Designing Better Artefacts @pmholling.bsky.social · 22/07/2026

Disposable BBQs – that brilliant combination of fleeing a wildfire while suffering from food poisoning.

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Designing Better Artefacts @pmholling.bsky.social · 22/07/2026

One of the big wins of smaller piston-prop operations transitioning to electric is in non-CO2 emissions. For example GA is currently one of the largest remaining sources of atmospheric lead pollution.

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Designing Better Artefacts @pmholling.bsky.social · 22/07/2026

Yes, we get engine noise, but the older, high-performance props are quite loud, lots of noise from the prop tips. Getting rid of 100LL is probably a bigger win.

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Designing Better Artefacts @pmholling.bsky.social · 22/07/2026

Even better if these replace the two Britten-Norman islanders in their fleet it will significantly reduce lead emissions. Don’t see the current orders touching the Twin Otter operations as those are significantly larger aircraft.

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Designing Better Artefacts @pmholling.bsky.social · 22/07/2026

It’s not jets that these will be replacing, but small props. Though most of that noise is related to disk loading and tip speed/losses, there is significant room for improvement over 60 year old designs.

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Designing Better Artefacts @pmholling.bsky.social · 22/07/2026

I tried my hand at speed skating a good while back. Got 1/2 way around, was nearly collapsing from trying to work ‘clap’ skates and by that time had been lapped by a retired Dutchman about 8 times and he wasn’t event sweating.

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Designing Better Artefacts @pmholling.bsky.social · 16/07/2026

Nearly 80% of domestic gas consumption (equates to about 65% of a typical households energy use) occurs between 1 October and 31 March. Gas prices hit very hard during that time. When you add in the typical electricity profile it’s roughly 76% of all energy use in that period.

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Reposted by Designing Better Artefacts

Tom Haddon @tomh-analyst.bsky.social · 16/07/2026

Another thing to note on this is, high gas prices up to now during the 'Iranian crisis' haven't been that big an issue for your average consumer because it was driving price cap during the summer months. Every day now it is impacting the formula for Oct-Dec which is high price x high volume period.

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Designing Better Artefacts @pmholling.bsky.social · 15/07/2026

What are the boundaries of your system?

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Designing Better Artefacts @pmholling.bsky.social · 11/07/2026

Unfortunately, not as well. Lancs lost that one

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