iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Phil Smith @philsmith26.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

This is a reminder that I have several table viewers and dashboards available, free of charge and with no registration or use authorization necessary. philipsmith.ca/dashboards/

philipsmith.ca

Selected Canadian Economic Table Viewers and Dashboards

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Phil Smith @philsmith26.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

Long-term bond rates have risen sharply this year. Here's what has happened to federal interest payments on national debt in CA and US so far. Expect these ratios to go a lot higher as the debt turns over. #cdnecon

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Phil Smith @philsmith26.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

Everyone assumes Trump wants to boost US manufacturing, lower r and pdot, swing the trade balance, cut immigration and improve the US military, but is failing because of dumb policies. The alternative assumption - he is just doing Putin's bidding - fits the facts better.

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Phil Smith @philsmith26.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

The BoC released a description of its new projection and policy analysis macroeconomic model today. It's a very sophisticated model. Here's how the CPI YoY change responds in the model (deviation from control) to a 100 basis point policy rate increase (Chart 4). www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/u...

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Phil Smith @philsmith26.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

I, like you, am curious to get more details. Shall I contact the author, or are you doing that?

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Phil Smith @philsmith26.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

You are right, of course. I imagine Straus is thinking in terms of "ex ante" HHs rather than "ex post" HHs. When two or more people, or groups of people, live in one dwelling but wish to live in separate dwellings, or live unwillingly "on the street" or in a collective shelter, "ex ante" > "ex post"

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Phil Smith @philsmith26.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

I'm sure the author would provide the details if you asked for them. Why do you say "'the number of renter households increases faster than the supply of rental units' is obviously bonkers"? It sounds probably right to me. Most of the huge NPR surge was the increase in rental HHs.

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Phil Smith @philsmith26.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

An interesting study by the BoC's Benjamin Straus finds that the NPR surge and higher interest rates were the big factors causing Canadian asking rents to surge between 2002 and 2024. The paper contains other interesting findings as well. www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/09/spar...

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Phil Smith @philsmith26.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

New survey data released by STC today indicate that Canadian business enterprise in-house research and development expenditures, which were flat in 2024 and 2025, are expected to increase only marginally in 2026. #cdnecon

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Phil Smith @philsmith26.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

Real GDP was flat in July, STC reported today. One way to cut through the volatility in month-to-month real GDP growth rates is to focus on the 6-month % change expressed at annual rates. On that basis the economy has been performing quite well in recent months. #cdnecon

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Phil Smith @philsmith26.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

The chart here shows Government of Canada revenue, expenditure and debt accumulations as % of GDP, 1990 Q1 to 2026 Q2. Since 2024 Q1, expenditure has been flat while revenue has declined. #cdnecon

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Phil Smith @philsmith26.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

The first seven months of LFS and SEPH data this year show that the reconciled differences in the 12-month % changes between the two surveys have returned to the relatively small range seen in the pre-pandemic period after having widened considerably between 2020 and 2025. #cdnecon

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Phil Smith @philsmith26.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

SEPH employment, updated to July 2026 by STC today, continues its rising trend, up 0.1% in the month and 0.9% vs. July 2025. Non-O&G mining has been a major contributor, up 4.9% YoY although down -0.5% in July. #cdnecon

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Phil Smith @philsmith26.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

Quarterly population growth rates continue to be at historically low levels (the peak COVID quarters excepted) as NPR levels are gradually brought back down to earth. #cdnecon

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Phil Smith @philsmith26.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

Canada's population increased by 42,844 people (0.2%) in the 2nd quarter, StatCan reported today, with decreasing non-permanent residents continuing to be a drag on growth. #cdnecon

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Phil Smith @philsmith26.bsky.social · 19/09/2026

Here's a link to a very interesting speech a couple of days ago at the ECB by Paul Krugman in which, among other things, he looks at the role of economic size and economic power in world trade, focussing in particular on US, EU and Canada. www.youtube.com/watch?v=R0Vx...

youtube.com

Live - ECB Annual Research Conference 2026 (Day 2)

YouTube video by European Central Bank

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Phil Smith @philsmith26.bsky.social · 17/09/2026

There is considerable variation in the gap between the unemployment rate and the EI insurance rate across provinces. It's currently around 5% in ON, AB and BC, 3-4% in NS, QC, MB and SK and close to zero in NL, PE and NB. This relates to the 'economic region' criterion in the EI program. #cdnecon

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Phil Smith @philsmith26.bsky.social · 17/09/2026

Prices for new housing continued to drop in August. They were down -0.1% in the month and -2.0% over the last twelve, StatCan reported this morning. They have been on a slow decline for 4 years now. #cdnecon

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Phil Smith @philsmith26.bsky.social · 16/09/2026

The pickup in Canadian new car sales, in value terms, that had begun in January, fell off a bit in July according to data released by StatCan today. #cdnecon

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Phil Smith @philsmith26.bsky.social · 16/09/2026

Harper has many reasons not to like Trudeau, but blaming him for killing hopes for Canada to become an energy superpower is not one of them. Brent oil prices fell from $108.63 in April 2014 to just $34.74 in January 2016 and have never fully recovered. That's what killed those hopes.

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Phil Smith @philsmith26.bsky.social · 16/09/2026

I suppose they have value in revealing the "herd opinion", provided the market has sufficient depth. Since people pay to participate, one might assume their input is sincere and carefully considered. Marketers and politicians, for example, might find this information useful.

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Phil Smith @philsmith26.bsky.social · 03/09/2026

Statistics Canada reported this morning that labour productivity increased 1% in the second quarter. #cdnecon philipsmith.ca/labour_produ...

philipsmith.ca

Canadian Quarterly Labour Productivity Dashboard

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Phil Smith @philsmith26.bsky.social · 02/09/2026

The joy of winning and the pain of losing static01.nyt.com/athletic/upl...

static01.nyt.com

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Phil Smith @philsmith26.bsky.social · 02/09/2026

StatCan reported capital expenditure survey results for Canada's O&G industry yesterday. Investment, seasonally adjusted, was up 7% compared to the first quarter, but down -2.3% compared to a year earlier. #cdnecon

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Phil Smith @philsmith26.bsky.social · 29/08/2026

Two Americans from the past discuss the world situation.

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Phil Smith @philsmith26.bsky.social · 29/08/2026

View my three Canadian economic statistics browsers here: Quarterly nat. accts: philipsmith.ca/nataccts/ Monthly national economic indicators: philipsmith.ca/macroindicat... Monthly by-province economic indicators: philipsmith.ca/provindicato... #cdnecon

philipsmith.ca

Canadian Income and Expenditure Accounts Dashboard

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Phil Smith @philsmith26.bsky.social · 28/08/2026

But you cannot update the dashboard as of now (08:45am August 28) because StatCan's system is down.

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Phil Smith @philsmith26.bsky.social · 28/08/2026

A reminder: If you are interested to view the latest monthly economic indicators for a Canadian province, you can do so in my provincial economic indicators dashboard: philipsmith.ca/provindicato...

philipsmith.ca

Canadian Provincial and Territorial Economic Indicators

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Phil Smith @philsmith26.bsky.social · 27/08/2026

Total hours worked in Canada rose 0.5% in June, continuing the solid uptrend that started in February this year StatCan reported this morning (in SEPH). #cdnecon

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Phil Smith @philsmith26.bsky.social · 26/08/2026

Here is a chart showing the pre-trade-war relative trends in Canada's imports from the US, by major NAPCS product group. It will be interesting to watch how these lines move in the year ahead. #cdnecon

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Phil Smith @philsmith26.bsky.social · 26/08/2026

BEA released its second estimates of US real GDP in the second quarter. The US economy grew 1.5% at annual rates. See my browser at the address below for details. #economy #useconomy #business #gdp philipmsmith.shinyapps.io/NatAcctsUSA/

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Phil Smith @philsmith26.bsky.social · 24/08/2026

Part of Paul Krugman's (paulkrugman@substack.com) commentary today on the US-CA trade war. www.youtube.com/watch?v=NPcy...

youtube.com

Alanis Morissette - You Oughta Know (Official 4K Music Video)

YouTube video by Alanis Morissette

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Phil Smith @philsmith26.bsky.social · 17/08/2026

Here's my CPI browser with all of the price indexes released by Statistics Canada today. #cdnecon philipsmith.ca/CPI/cpi.html

philipsmith.ca

Canadian Monthly CPI Dashboard

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Phil Smith @philsmith26.bsky.social · 15/08/2026

Perhaps already proposed, I don't know, but if Canada must retaliate I suggest we impose 5% export taxes on electricity, potash and O&G, using the revenues from the tax to compensate firms in the those industries as much as we can. If the US retaliates to this, raise the tax to 10%. #cdnecon

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Phil Smith @philsmith26.bsky.social · 11/08/2026

Herewith a simulation of Canadian labour market monthly flows among employment, unemployment and not in the labour force, done using the Claude AI Agent. #cdnecon philipsmith.ca/Cdn_labour_f...

philipsmith.ca

Canada's labour-market conveyor — a particle view

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Phil Smith @philsmith26.bsky.social · 08/08/2026

Foreign purchases of Canadian financial assets have been on a tear for the last two years. Evidently foreign investors' confidence in our economy is very much on the rise. #cdnecon

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Phil Smith @philsmith26.bsky.social · 07/08/2026

The hours-worked growth gap since January 2024, between the O&G-producing and non-O&G-producing provinces remains wide. In July it widened further in goods-producing industries and narrowed in services-producing industries. #cdnecon

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Phil Smith @philsmith26.bsky.social · 05/08/2026

philip635.substack.com/p/measuring-...

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Phil Smith @philsmith26.bsky.social · 05/08/2026

On July 29 StatCan released a 'corrected' version of its table 36-10-0713-01 with annual labour productivity statistics for 2025, by industry and province. They contrast greatly with the annual version of the quarterly LP statistics released June 3. Hard to know what's going on with Canadian LP.

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Phil Smith @philsmith26.bsky.social · 04/08/2026

Canada's monthly exports to EU nations are volatile, but have been trending up since early 2024. They plunged during the pandemic period, but have now recovered to the pre-pandemic level. The government is doing what it can to keep them growing at a strong pace. #cdnecon

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Phil Smith @philsmith26.bsky.social · 01/08/2026

Among the economically advanced democracies, it seems the smaller ones tend to have the most prosperity. The US, UK and Canada should learn from this although what the key lessons are, I am not sure. More decentralization perhaps? Or perhaps the opposite? prosperityindex.com/rankings

prosperityindex.com

Rankings :: The Legatum Prosperity Index

Explore the Legatum Prosperity Index rankings. Compare how 161 countries perform across the Development, Freedom, and Society domains with detailed pillar breakdowns.

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Phil Smith @philsmith26.bsky.social · 31/07/2026

StatCan's most recent population estimate is for April 2026, so one would have to project forward that estimate to June in some way.

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Phil Smith @philsmith26.bsky.social · 31/07/2026

My mistake corrected : 0.2%, 0.8% and 3.3%

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Phil Smith @philsmith26.bsky.social · 31/07/2026

My mistake. It was 0.2% in June, and 0.8% (3.3% at annual rates) in Q2.

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Phil Smith @philsmith26.bsky.social · 31/07/2026

Thanks. My mistake. It was 0.2% in June, and 0.8% (3.3% at annual rates) in Q2.

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Phil Smith @philsmith26.bsky.social · 31/07/2026

With 0.9% real growth (3.5% at annual rates), as reported by Statistics Canada today, the Canadian economy was steaming in 2026 Q2. #cdnecon

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Phil Smith @philsmith26.bsky.social · 30/07/2026

SEPH's estimate of weekly total employee compensation fell 0.2% in May reflecting a 0.3% drop in average hours worked, a 0.1% decrease in average hourly compensation and a 0.1% rise in employment. The 12-month increase was 3.8%. philipmsmith.shinyapps.io/SEPHbrowser/ #cdnecon

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Phil Smith @philsmith26.bsky.social · 30/07/2026

It's not something I know anything about, Jens.

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