iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Paul @phillies-therapy.com · 19h

It’s the offseason with lots of important things to discuss

The Wheelers have an interesting bath mat strategy and questionable charging cable hygiene

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Paul @phillies-therapy.com · 28/09/2026

We'll see a little movement once we have lineups, but either way it really like the NYY rotation against the BOS lineup

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Paul @phillies-therapy.com · 19/09/2026

I guess this is just the week of Phillies players doing things they haven’t done for 50-70 years

BRef Stathead table of results matching what José Urquidy did tonight. 7 other games, first since 1970

Text: For single games, As relief pitcher, Playing for PHI, in the regular
season, requiring Runs Allowed = 0 and Innings Pitched >= 4.2
and Strikeouts >= 6 and Bases on Balls = 0, sorted by
descending Date.

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Paul @phillies-therapy.com · 14/09/2026

Here is the table I referenced for Marsh, btw. sequencebaseball.com!

TABLE TITLE: Swing Efficiency: bat vs. own distribution - A >= 75.6 MPH, B >= 74.2 MPH
2026 Season
A Swing: 105 count, 61.9% hard hit, 94.3% z-contact, 10.5% whiff, .769 SLG
B Swing: 98 count, 46% hard hit, 92.5% z-contact, 11.2% whiff, .527 SLG
All Others: 811 count, 36.6% hard hit, 85.3% z-contact, 28.2% whiff, .333 SLG

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Paul @phillies-therapy.com · 04/09/2026

A little graphical study on "entropy" and predictability. Who is easiest to guess on, and how much does it matter? www.sequencebaseball.com/viz/sequence...

A scatter plot of MLB pitchers in 2026. The x-axis, left-to-right, is labeled 0.5 to 3.0 with label text "H(pitch | count) in bits, lower = more predictable." The y-axis, bottom-to-top, is labeled -6 to +6 with label text "Run value / 100 (higher = better)." Pitchers on the Phillies are highlighted, with their dots a golden color instead of the standard blue.

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Paul @phillies-therapy.com · 30/08/2026

New section on Sequence for Hitter Cards: “Swing Efficiency” I’ve bucketed players’ “A” and “B” swings based on their own bat speed range, then tracked Hard Hit%, Z-Contact, Whiff Rate, and SLG on those. Small samples and all but a fun look. Here’s Schwarber:

SWING EFFICIENCY bat speed vs. own distribution • A ≥ 81.1 mph • B ≥ 79.8
mph
All tracked
SWING
"A" Swing
90th-100th pct
2025
2026
SWINGS
HARD HIT%
Z-CONTACT%
WHIFF%
SLG
111(10.4%)
61.9% (42 BIP)
81.6% (98)
21.6%
1.000 (44 AB)
"B" Swing
80th-89th pct
113 (10.6%)
52.9% (34 BIP)
76.1% (92)
31.9%
0.681 (47 AB)
All Others below 80th pct
843(79%)
46.9% (213 BIP)
75.0% (545)
36.7%
0.503 (336 AB)

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Paul @phillies-therapy.com · 29/08/2026

Over on Sequence, I've rebuilt the Game Plan feature. Once lineups are posted, it leverages LiveSeqer's data and learning to predict pitch mixes, effectiveness, and locations by time through the order per game www.sequencebaseball.com/app#gameplan

Example of Game Plan's layout, with lineups from August 29, 2026's Dodgers/Tigers lineups. Shohei Ohtani's row is expanded to show Keider Montero's pitch offerings and the Sequence Baseball model's predictions for how he'll be pitched to

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Paul @phillies-therapy.com · 23/08/2026

Since 2008, 2-out 2-strike homers hit 450’+ in the 9th or later with the winning run on base or at the plate

Giancarlo Stanton, Travis Shaw, Wil Myers

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Paul @phillies-therapy.com · 21/08/2026

New Sequence feature: Pennant Chase A near-term projection on playoff odds changes for game outcomes over the coming 3 days. Choose one game, a whole series, a whole day's worth; this will calculate shifts in playoff odds for you based on what you select. Have fun www.sequencebaseball.com/pennant

A screen showing projected playoff odds changes over the next 3 days if the Phillies beat St. Louis in 2 of 3, and Milwaukee beats Atlanta in 3 of 3. Green and red percentage labels indicate rise/fall, and per-game selection buttons sit below.

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Paul @phillies-therapy.com · 19/08/2026

Sometimes you just know ball

Browser history entry from August 1 for Nestor Cortes’s BRef page. The Phillies signed him on August 19.

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Paul @phillies-therapy.com · 11/08/2026

Pitcher Monitor is filterable by all pitch types and graphs, with added visual distinction for pitches out-of-band. Updates every 20s while games are live.

Andrew Painter's Pitcher Monitor from Monday, Aug. 10; 6 EKG-style line graphs depict the characteristics of Painter's pitches during his outing, chronologically

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Paul @phillies-therapy.com · 11/08/2026

Pitcher Monitor insights included on pitcher cards, with summarized flags (I need to clean up run-rule alerts I know), performance of pitches in or out of the 20-80 percentile band, and ability to hold stuff late into outings

Jesus Luzardo's Pitcher Monitor insights from SUnday, August 9. 63% pitches in-band, more pitches in-band late in game than at start

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Paul @phillies-therapy.com · 11/08/2026

Recalibrated challenge engine with remodeled ZoneIQ, leverage impacts, overturn rate and missed strikes

The top 10 catchers by ZoneIQ (proprietary measure) as of August 11

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Paul @phillies-therapy.com · 11/08/2026

Tunneling leaderboard has been renamed to Deception leaderboard, with a re-tuned scoring system and additional tunneling data included

Data table showing 5 highest-scoring two-pitch sequences, with tunnel score, sequence count, called+swinging strike lift, and divergence gap shown

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Paul @phillies-therapy.com · 11/08/2026

Some updates to sequencebaseball.com lately Overall - Nav update to use a left-rail menu Game Stories - Landing page shows SP grades and hardest-hit BBE - Detail page features a hardest-hit detail card, highest-scoring sequence with pitch tails, and a normalized strike zone miss map (unchallenged)

Game Stories landing page, with final scores and starting pitcher grades. The day's top SP grades are shown in a ribbon above the game cards

Dataviz cards with info on a batted ball, shown on a ballpark outline and sideways POV slice; a two-pitch sequence shown from catcher's POV with pitch tails, outcome, usage, and score; ABS zone of missed calls that went unchallenged, and the most impactful of those misses highlighted via encircled map dot

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Paul @phillies-therapy.com · 25/07/2026

Me watching a second Br. Keller pitch for the Phillies this season

Hot Fuzz. Danny and Nicholas are in the car, and Nicholas has his revelation. Next sentence is a spoiler: “It’s just the one killer, actually”

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Paul @phillies-therapy.com · 17/07/2026

Cursory glance shows Nola made some sort of mechanical tweak. Last night’s curves and changeups (which he featured most) often had more extension. 14 whiffs in 29 swings combined, zero hard-hit curves. Again he isn’t fully fixed but I’d call this promising

Line graph of Aaron Nola’s changeups and curveballs, by difference in extension from season average, from 7/16/26. Many pitches are above his typical band.

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Paul @phillies-therapy.com · 14/07/2026

Good ballplayers in town

It’s Citizens Bank Park. You already know it’s pretty

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Paul @phillies-therapy.com · 11/07/2026

Go away go awayyya goog awwwyayayyyyyu

“Betting odds now available” yeah great how about I just ki

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Paul @phillies-therapy.com · 09/07/2026

Alright anyway on a happier note, I've pushed this live. Pitcher Monitor! sequencebaseball.com/monitor Updates every 20s when games are live, past game graphs calculated on-demand so they're available. Here's Dylan Cease's near no-no from yesterday:

A panel of 4 EKG-style graphs that chronologically track a pitcher’s velocity, movement (V/H), and spin during an outing. Each has a shaded portion of the 20th-80th percentile range for the pitcher

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Paul @phillies-therapy.com · 09/07/2026

Also coming soon: Pitcher Monitor. Track how pitchers are holding their stuff during an outing

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Paul @phillies-therapy.com · 08/07/2026

Schwarber‘s second-ever 3-0 homer means it’s just him and Mikey Jack at 31 pre-ASG homers

Rk I Player
Split
Year G

HR
GS
1

Mike Schmidt

1st Half 1979 92

31
91
2

Kyle Schwarber

1st Half 2026 87

30
86
3

Kyle Schwarber

1st Half 2025 96

30
96
4

Kyle Schwarber
1st Half 2022

90
29
90
5

Ryan Howard

1st Half 2008 96

28
93
6

Ryan Howard

1st Half 2006 84

28
82
7

Jim Thome

1st Half 2004 79

28
78

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Paul @phillies-therapy.com · 05/07/2026

ZoneIQ top and bottom 10 for ABS challenge accuracy, effectiveness, and leverage

PLAYER
ZONE IQ »
TEAM

Dillon Dingler
81.5
DET
Brandon Valenzuela
80.7
TOR
Tyler Heineman
75.4
TOR
Carlos Narváez
73.0
BOS
P.J. Higgins
72.6
CIN
Keibert Ruiz
70.3
WSH
Rafael Marchán
69.4
PHI
Luis Torrens
68.8
NYM
Austin Wynns
67.2
OAK
Ryan Jeffers
66.5
MIN

Yainer Diaz
33.9
HOU
Salvador Perez
31.9
KC
Jake Rogers
31.1
DET
Tyler Stephenson
27.9
CIN
Danny Jansen
27.7
TEX
William Contreras
26.3
MIL
Elias Díaz
24.9
KC
Dalton Rushing
23.4
LAD
Eric Haase
20.5
SF
Logan O'Hoppe
13.4
LAA

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Paul @phillies-therapy.com · 02/07/2026

Ok seriously: Tomorrow is about survival. I truly do not care if it‘s a win, everybody (not just players) be safe

Temps during tomorrow’s Phillies game. Heat index 112 by 3pm.

Thu, Jul 02
12p
0%
97°
1p
• 0%
99°
→ 6 mph WNW +
→ 7 mph W
+
2p
6 0%
101° → 7 mph W
+
3p
0%
102°
102° > 8 mph WSW -
For the Hour: Sunny
Feels Like
112°
Rain Amount
O in

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Paul @phillies-therapy.com · 27/06/2026

Zack Wheeler is the 13th Phillies pitcher with 40 starts of 7+ innings and 1 or 0 runs allowed

BRef screenshot showing evidence of the post’s statement. Steve Carlton leads the way with 125

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Paul @phillies-therapy.com · 25/06/2026

This is not the actual location of this pitch BUT…I do kinda wanna see what the swing to turn this into a homer would look like…

Gameday screenshot of Curtis Mead’s home run with the pitch marker entirely too far above the zone

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Paul @phillies-therapy.com · 22/06/2026

Nowhere near as good as Matt’s but I had to join the prognostication party

Dunks dunks dunks dunks
Bloop and blast time

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Paul @phillies-therapy.com · 09/06/2026

Not quite a Q Day but when (when!) this thing is jailbroken and ablated, I bet it’s gonna cause a whole lot more problems than it solves.

Releasing a model this capable comes with risks. Without strong safeguards, Claude Fable 5's advanced capabilities in areas like cybersecurity and biology could be misused by users to create large-scale cyberattacks or bioweapons that could result in catastrophic damage. These capabilities are the reason we've previously only released Mythos-class models (like Claude Fable 5) to a small number of selected and vetted partners.

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Paul @phillies-therapy.com · 04/06/2026

When LiveSeqer predicted a fastball during yesterday's games, it was right 62.5% of the time. Earlier this week, it hit 65%. Three weeks ago, this number was 55.9%. sequencebaseball.com

Pitch Type: Four-Seam Fastball (FF)
Thrown: 1,367
Correct: 855
Accuracy: 62.5%

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Paul @phillies-therapy.com · 03/06/2026

Schwarber wasn’t expecting it, but Walker Buehler follows up sliders to LHB with a sinker more than any of his other pitches on the 1st time through the order

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Paul @phillies-therapy.com · 03/06/2026

Calling this scheduled Aidan Miller procedure “surgery” does not feel fully accurate. Sounds like heated acupuncture. Anyway, glad his condition has a name. Looking for ya at the top in 2027, bud

Radiofrequency Ablation for Pain Management
Medically Reviewed.
Last updated on 03/14/2022.
Radiofrequency ablation (RFA) uses heat to destroy tissue. For pain management, radio waves are sent through a precisely placed needle to heat an area of the nerve. This prevents pain signals from being sent back to your brain. RFA is considered for long-term pain conditions, especially of the neck, lower back or arthritic joints that haven’t been successfully treated with other methods.
Source: Cleveland Clinic

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Paul @phillies-therapy.com · 01/06/2026

Coming soon over at sequencebaseball.com Sequence DNA A visualizer set that expands on pitcher stuff profiles and sequencing to show tendencies and patterns, including relative to league usage

Zack Wheeler's pitch type usage by count, with filter for batter handedness

Zack Wheeler's pitch type usage by count in relation to league usage (delta), with filter for batter handedness

Zack Wheeler's sequencing grid, showing how often one pitch type follows another

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Paul @phillies-therapy.com · 29/05/2026

Wheeler’s been good with his FB this year…but I wonder if we see a few more sliders tonight

Zack Wheeler cheat sheet as of 5/28. Heavy sinker/4-seamer use, top sequence is 2S -> 4S with 54% whiff and 75% chase combined across 18 PA

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Paul @phillies-therapy.com · 29/05/2026

The off day leaves everyone pretty fresh, but a Dodgers lineup that doesn’t have big weaknesses takes a bite out of the matchup scores

Phillies Relief Readiness for May 28. Tanner Banks has the top composite score at 73

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Paul @phillies-therapy.com · 27/05/2026

The Phillies traded one of their ascendant position player prospects for a complex arm in the Tampa Bay system. Now why would they do that

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Paul @phillies-therapy.com · 27/05/2026

Please do not get accustomed to "New Feature Every Day" but I did have this idea rolling before yesterday's release and now it's also out for your eyes to test. Game Plan looks at pitcher/hitter matchups and adapt pitch mix based on arsenal and trends as the game goes on

Cris Sanchez vs Walker Buehler, with the first 5 hitters of each opposing lineup shown beneath with analysis on repertoire and approach for each

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Paul @phillies-therapy.com · 27/05/2026

Cris does not have the big guns behind him today. Walker Buehler does, if he can hold a lead

PHI/SD Relief Readiness graph for May 27. Bowlan, Shugart, and Banks are most-ready for the Phillies, while the Padres' big group of Jason Adam, Mason Miller, and Jeremiah Estrada line up well.

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Paul @phillies-therapy.com · 27/05/2026

New pitch prediction high of 44% yesterday

LiveSeqer Model Performance (for 5/26/2026)

44.0% Pitch-Type Accuracy
1,923 / 4,374 pitches

50.4% Bucket Accuracy
2,195 / 4,351

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Paul @phillies-therapy.com · 26/05/2026

Now that a game is live, here’s what LiveSeqer looks like. Live pitch predictions based on the model’s latest training, which happens daily but will only show incremental improvement until about July (I think)

Predictions for a pitch from Joey Cantillo to CJ Abrams. There are multiple bar graphs in gradients and hues, with a strike zone plot in shades of purple based on predicted location

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