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Philip N Cohen

@philipncohen.com
12K followers 846 following 11K posts

Sociologist and demographer, U. of Maryland; SocArXiv director. Latest book: Citizen Scholar: Public Engagement for Social Scientists cup.columbia.edu/book/citizen-schol… Website: philipncohen.com Blog: familyinequality.com

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Philip N Cohen @philipncohen.com · 05/10/2026
A striking regression in morally tolerant attitudes in the US between 2022 and 2026. In four editions of updating this graph, I haven't had to deal with a big reversal yet. How am I supposed to teach the next generation that the arc of the moral universe bends toward debauchery now?
bar graph from this data: https://news.gallup.com/poll/710981/moral-acceptability-falls-several-behaviors.aspx
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Philip N Cohen @philipncohen.com · 05/10/2026
Some personal news
UNIVERSITY OF
MARYLAND

Requirements Completed

Hi Philip Cohen,

You have successfully completed 2026-2027 Advancing Holistic Review in Graduate Admissions.

Keep learning,
University of Maryland Open Learning
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Philip N Cohen @philipncohen.com · 05/10/2026
See, the irrationality of rationality, in today's Soc lecture
Giant China traffic jam
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Philip N Cohen @philipncohen.com · 03/10/2026
To show the importance of healthcare Justin groups everything besides healthcare and social insurance, which together are net negative. But there are other growing industries. Leisure & hospitality, construction, durable goods, retail trade, and utilities have together have added 312k jobs. Details:
	Change
Health Care	610
Social Assistance	388
Leisure and Hospitality	137
Construction	100
Durable Goods	40
Retail Trade	21
Utilities	15
Wholesale Trade	5
Professional and Business Services	2
Private Educational Services	1
Transportation and Warehousing	-56
Nondurable Goods	-61
Financial Activities	-105
Information	-138
Nonfarm private payroll, BLS data via FRED.
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Philip N Cohen @philipncohen.com · 03/10/2026
This story doesn't help Cornell pass the buck as much as they hoped. The conclusion is basically: No DA should ever trust campus police. (Raising the question: why do private universities have real police again?) www.nytimes.com/2026/10/02/n...
The former prosecutors, however, said the district attorney's approach fell short in multiple ways, including his failure to bring Jane Doe in to be interviewed by his office and his apparent total reliance on a statement recorded - and, more broadly, an investigation conducted
— by the university police.
"We would never rely on a campus police investigation," said Rick Trunfio, a former sex crimes prosecutor in upstate New York and now an adjunct law professor at Syracuse University. "There's too many problems with that"
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Philip N Cohen @philipncohen.com · 03/10/2026
187. Asked to list top five life goals, young adults in Finland (age 20-29, 2022), rank having children 6th (37%), behind romantic relationship, meaningful work, income, health, and friends. ht @jessicanisen.bsky.social www.e2.fi/media/julkai...
What do you want to achieve in your life? (Select the 1–5 most important)	Percent
A romantic relationship and love	61
Meaningful work	58
A stable income	55
Physical and mental well-being	48
Close friendships	45
Children of one's own	37
Financial wealth	27
New experiences	27
Personal growth	25
Home ownership	19
Success	14
An eco-friendly lifestyle	12
Experience living abroad	7
A leadership position in one's career	4
Fame	2
Something else	2
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Philip N Cohen @philipncohen.com · 02/10/2026
Like a "wait for it" TikTok video, the best stupid clickbait headline is one where you have to read through the entire article trying to find "this mistake" revealed. When, as in this case, it never appears, who cares? Eyeballs achieved.
 Nyt:
OPINION
GUEST ESSAY
This Mistake Doomed Biden. Trump Is Falling Into the Same Trap.
Oct. 2, 2026
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Philip N Cohen @philipncohen.com · 01/10/2026
Just don't leave home without this
19th c antimasturbation device
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Philip N Cohen @philipncohen.com · 30/09/2026
Did you ever notice the lion's tongue in Madonna's Like A Virgin video?
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Philip N Cohen @philipncohen.com · 30/09/2026
Laughing Kookaburra, I reckon
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Philip N Cohen @philipncohen.com · 29/09/2026
Is this Marc Novicoff who doesn't want free day care the same Marc Novicoff who wrote, "The Birth-Rate Crisis Isn't as Bad as You've Heard—It's Worse"?
The Birth-Rate Crisis Isn't As Bad As You've Heard-
It's Worse
June 30, 2025
Marc Novicoff, The Atlantic, June 30, 2025
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Philip N Cohen @philipncohen.com · 29/09/2026
And they think the word needs to be used less than once or their readers won't click: Genocide
OPINION
M. GESSEN
There Is a Word So Powerful It Need Be Spoken Only Once
Sept. 28, 2026
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Philip N Cohen @philipncohen.com · 29/09/2026
This is when I started to wonder. LOL. Obviously it was all LLM-generated but still seemed like it might have been a person using it to write. Because we I get "real" chatbot-generated emails every day in this god forsaken timeline.
Hello Philip,
Thank you very much for getting back to me. Yes, we are aware that The Family:
Diversity, Inequality, and Social Change is a substantial 500-page college textbook, and we appreciate you pointing that out. Our members selected it because of its depth and the range of important topics it explores. We understand that it is a significant reading commitment, and we are happy to give our members the time they need to engage with it thoughtfully.
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Philip N Cohen @philipncohen.com · 27/09/2026
"More people working in the United States right now than at any point in the History of our Country!" True. Also true, lowest percentage of the population since the Great Recession. For Monday's sociology class episode of Denominators Matter.
Stlfed graph
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Philip N Cohen @philipncohen.com · 25/09/2026
Great pronatalist poster from France circa 1930s, showing outcome of a century of "normal fertility" versus "insufficient fertility." At least 3 children per household are needed "for a country to thrive" from Andrew Gelman's visit here: www.carnavalet.paris.fr/expositions/..., on his blog today.
Two population pyramids, with French text. Google translate:

AFTER A CENTURY OF

AFTER A CENTURY OF

NORMAL FERTILITY

INSUFFICIENT FERTILITY

POPULATION DISTRIBUTION AMONG
DIFFERENT AGE GROUPS
At least, on average, 3 children per household are needed

JOIN THE NATIONAL ALLIANCE FOR INCREASING THE

for a country to thrive

FRENCH POPULATION 217, Rue du Faubourg Saint Honoré, PARIS
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Philip N Cohen @philipncohen.com · 24/09/2026
I just noticed this graphic from the After the Spike book talk shows 24 people in the first generation and 16 in the second, which is a 1/3 drop, not the 1/4 drop the text describes. (wrote about it here: familyinequality.wordpress.com/2026/01/20/i...)
How fast
would
change
come?

Consider a birth
rate of about
1.5, between
the US and
Europe

100 in first gen

75 in second gen

55 in third gen
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Philip N Cohen @philipncohen.com · 24/09/2026
Here's the review: No paywall! :) familyinequality.wordpress.com/2026/09/23/i...
image of title
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Philip N Cohen @philipncohen.com · 24/09/2026
I add a little descriptive hurdle setting. If insecurity is the issue, and there are ways we could address it - which she describes, like family support, childcare, education, etc. - what about Scandinavia? Their birth rates are lower than the US and falling. I show some OECD correlations:
For OECD countries with available data, below I show the most recent relationship between total fertility rates and four variables I think are reasonable related to the concept of security: (1) Public spending on family benefits as percent of GDP; (2) Cash family benefits for a two-child family with two-earner parents, as percentage of average full-time earnings; (3) Net childcare costs for a two-earner, two-child (ages 2 and 3) family with full-time earnings (100+67% of average earnings), as percentage of average earnings; and, (4) The child poverty rate, shown as percentage of children below half of the median disposable family income.
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Philip N Cohen @philipncohen.com · 24/09/2026
These are the completed fertility rates by gender and education in the US for the last 5 decades, from a paper by @hudde.bsky.social and me: journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10....
Figure 1. Mean completed fertility (children ever born) by birth cohort in decades, sex, and education level. The height of the bars indicates the relative size of each education group within the sex cohort. Completed fertility is from the General Social Survey for respondents age 40 or older; cohort education composition is calculated from the decennial census (1950–1990) and American Community Survey (2000–2021) data from IPUMS.org. All data are weighted.
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Philip N Cohen @philipncohen.com · 24/09/2026
And insecurity has "trickled up" so that the old privileges don't protect people from it anymore.
“For much of American history, fear, uncertainty, and insecurity governed life for those on the margins of society: migrants, the poor, people of color, sexual minorities. This was usually by design. But today, insecurity has trickled up to those formerly protected by light skin, college degrees, good jobs, or middle class upbringings. Even the ultrarich sense that security has become a luxury [as they build bunkers to protect against societal collapse]. … Contemporary capitalism acts on our bank accounts, yes, but also our bodies, and our psyches. We are at a crisis point. Too many people feel unable to have the children they want to have, and those with families too rarely feel they are thriving.“
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Philip N Cohen @philipncohen.com · 24/09/2026
She writes: "our way of life – of working, of consuming, of relating to ourselves and to one another – has become increasingly hostile to our ability to have the families we desire. ... Faced with this inhumanity, young people are less and less inclined to create more humans."
“In countries around the world, our way of life – of working, of consuming, of relating to ourselves and to one another – has become increasingly hostile to our ability to have the families we desire. Yet the policymakers hounding their citizens to make more babies miss one central fact: We have created an inhumane and uncertain world. Faced with this inhumanity, young people are less and less inclined to create more humans. … We are saddled with an excess of what the activist Astra Taylor calls ‘manufactured insecurity,’ a core feature of the insecurity machine that is our current iteration of capitalism.”
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Philip N Cohen @philipncohen.com · 23/09/2026
I approve this use of my photo of Dr. Oz.
'Stupid and Evil': Severe Outrage After White
House Revokes Health Care Coverage for 750K
Americans

CMS says the cancellations will return about $2.2 billion in advance premium tax credits,
while new verification rules target agents, brokers and applicants

By Robert Gorgonio
Published 23 September 2026, 4:58 PM BST

f in GFO

CMS Administrator Dr. Mehmet Oz cancels 315,000 unauthorised ACA enrolments covering 760,000 people in a fraud
(PHOTO: PHOTO BY: PHILIP COHEN - HTTPS://WWW.FLICKR.COM/PHOTOS/PHILIPCOHEN/55366660718/, CC BY-
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Philip N Cohen @philipncohen.com · 23/09/2026
Review of Inconceivable, by Anna Louie Sussman: familyinequality.wordpress.com/2026/09/23/i...
Family Inequality
by Philip N. Cohen
Inconceivable takes insecurity too far
• September 23, 2026
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Philip N Cohen @philipncohen.com · 23/09/2026
Sometimes there are slow countervailing forces and their product is a trend that changes more suddenly. This happens in demography all the time, as trends work through generations. If you showed these as ratios you could make meaningless tipping points. And of course the categories are arbitrary
Birth rates 15-19 and 40-44 crossingBirths to women under/over 30 crossing over
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Philip N Cohen @philipncohen.com · 23/09/2026
My radical theory is that the moment a trend changes direction might not hold the secret to what's driving it. Sometimes it's a matter of scale. A, B, and C represent the same trend on different time scales
Squiggles showing trends
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Philip N Cohen @philipncohen.com · 21/09/2026
Hey, I'm giving a talk at Johns Hopkins on Friday: "Depopulation Panic and Doing Demography in Public." Includes zoom option. (Yes, I've used versions of this title as I keep working on the book, but the talk keeps changing!) popcenter.jhu.edu/event/hpc-se...
Hopkins Population Center Seminar
Depopulation Panic and Doing Demography in Public
Guest Speaker:
DR. PHILIP COHEN
Professor, Department of Sociology, University of Maryland, College Park
Abstract
Strongman national leaders from Mussolini to MAGA have used falling birth rates to energize their political movements. Their nostalgic images of gender, sexuality, and family life easily summon pronatalist ideology. But today's depopulation panic is driving liberal pronatalism as well. So the "Great Replacement" and anti-immigrant politics exist side-by-side with democratic socialists demanding more generous family support and childcare, to help young families meet their fertility goals. Can demographers, as social scientists, contribute constructively to these debates? To do so, our engagement must be informative as well as trustworthy, even as we rise to meet our obligations as citizens in defense of democratic values. The talk includes preliminary results from a new survey of demographer attitudes on birth rates and population trends.
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Philip N Cohen @philipncohen.com · 20/09/2026
Like a Trojan Arch
Donald J. Trump
@reaDonald Trump
At the strong request of the United States Military, and for National Security purposes, I have agreed to convert the magnificent Triumphal Arch, planned since the Civil War Era many years ago, at the Receptive Circle adjoining the Arlington Memorial Bridge, into a top grade Military Complex/Triumphal Arch, to house, store, and have the rapid ability to use large numbers of drones, plus Snipers, on both the roof and plaza areas, and additionally have and hold large quantities of sniper ammunition in storage.
There will be no facility like this anywhere in the World. Out of the 59 top cities and Capitals, Washington, D.C., IS THE ONLY ONE IN THE WORLD THAT DOES NOT HAVE A TRIUMPHAL ARCH, but it will now and, by far, the greatest of them all! Thank you for your attention to this matter. President
DONALD J. TRUMP
324 ReTruths 1.17k Likes
9/20/26, 7:34 AM
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Philip N Cohen @philipncohen.com · 19/09/2026
As I'm waiting for an editor to decide whether to desk-reject my article (going on two weeks, everyone is busy!), I gave Google Notebook the paper and supporting materials and had it do a peer review for me and the results were very positive. I think we can skip to conditional accept.
5. Concluding Assessment
This manuscript addresses a significant disconnect between XXX and XXX. With minor revisions to resolve reporting consistency and refine the conceptual discussion around policy intervention, this paper will be a valuable and highly cited addition to the journal.
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Philip N Cohen @philipncohen.com · 19/09/2026
Counting blessings: Glad I'm not 1/100th the size of this Great Blue Heron🪶
GBH in pondfront viewGBH huntingGBH about to swallow its fish
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Philip N Cohen @philipncohen.com · 18/09/2026
Periodic reminder that the economics concept of "productive" doesn't reflect the common meaning of "hard working." Between social settings, if not within them, human energy expended is negatively correlated with productivity.
A farmer with draft animals and a plough in the mud; a farmer in an air-conditioned combine in a field
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Philip N Cohen @philipncohen.com · 18/09/2026
Lol now try driving one of these 100 miles each way to work
Stretch hummer
050
Philip N Cohen @philipncohen.com · 16/09/2026
(Note it is still the case that the longer you live the higher your life expectancy, and the first year is more dangerous than any before age 50)
Video screenshot
020
Philip N Cohen @philipncohen.com · 16/09/2026
185. In 2025 White non-Hispanic births* as a share of total U.S. births bounced back a little, but remained just less than half of the total. They first fell below 50% in 2023. (2/3 of the change was a decline among non-WNH births, 1/3 from more WNH births.) * Based on race/ethnicity of the mother.
	Non-Hispanic White births as share of births (based on mother's race/ethnicity)
2018	0.516
2019	0.511
2020	0.510
2021	0.515
2022	0.502
2023	0.497
2024	0.491
2025	0.497
PNC calculations from CDC Wonder data
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Philip N Cohen @philipncohen.com · 14/09/2026
For Citizen Scholar, I did a survey, then used cluster analysis to group the respondents and interviewed people from each cluster. It was a convenient way of selecting interviewees to get a range of responses.
SURVEY AND INTERVIEWS
In this chapter, I include information from a survey of researchers I conducted in 2022. By sharing a link on my social media accounts, - generated a convenience sample of about 400 academics and researchers who used social media for professional purposes. About half were sociologists, and most of the rest were social scientists in other disciplines (Black [4 percent], Hispanic [6 percent], and Asian [8 percent] scholars were underrepre-sented). Using this (nonrandom) sample, I set out to identify patterns unfamiliar to me; then I followed up by interviewing a subsample of respondents. In the survey, I offered fifteen possible reasons to use social media in our professional work, each of which addressed types of information gathering, interpersonal networking, and research dissemination. I clustered the respondents into five groups by their level and type of engagement and then interviewed people from each cluster.
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Philip N Cohen @philipncohen.com · 13/09/2026
My friend Phil just picks them up just so
Phil holding a big snapping turtle
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Philip N Cohen @philipncohen.com · 12/09/2026
He wants to replace this with a 30-foot George Washington Colossus
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Philip N Cohen @philipncohen.com · 10/09/2026
I guess we could ask, I don't know, the Census Bureau who gets counted: www.census.gov/programs-sur...
census.gov
Decennial Census of Population and
Housing
The U.S. census counts every resident in the United States. It is mandated by Article I, Section 2 of the Constitution and takes place every 10 years.
020
Philip N Cohen @philipncohen.com · 09/09/2026
"Most were dressed neatly and showed no signs of hippie influence." 1967. For today's intro discussion of social construction. Cool story (some of the kids arrested are alive and traceable).
The New Hork Cimes
TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 14, 1967
'Marijuana Party' Arrests Upset Naugatuck
Special to The New York Times
The parents of the young-
WATERBURY, Conn., Nov.
well-dressed products
rest," nobody heard him. He the youngsters were refund-
of middle-class
had to pull the plug on the record player and announce
ed by Judge DiCenzo,
who
homes, also were disturbed the arrest a second time.
continued all but one of the
jammed into a tiny court-here today to be arraigned on charges growing out of what police called a marijuana
neighboring
Naugatuck on the presiding judge
at the arraignment and the
by the mass arrest.
Donna Dlugokecki and 59
without bail in
the custody of their parents.
"A lot of us parents are
of her friends—23 of them
was cor-
thinking of getting together
giris-were
arrested
tinued in
$2,500 bail.
Mr.
something about
this," one father said of the
charges of breach of the peace. Five other youngsters
Birdsall in $1,000 bail and the teen-ager accused of possess-
police action.
under 16 were turned over to
Two dozen state and local
juvenile authorities.
switchblade
n $300
policemen staged the raid on
Four-Hour Wait for Some
the home
youngsters questioned the ar-which occurred during birthday party at a home n a good residential sectior of Naugatuck.
"I suspect that many these youngsters should not have been arrested," Circuit Court Judge George C.
Di-
Cenzo declared as he opened the all-day arraignment ses-sion.
Rejeets Month's Delay
The judge ordered the cases against the
youngsters con-
tinued until Nov.
21, reject-
ing a prosecution plea tor a month's delay by comment-ing:
Quite out of the question.
I'm not going to have these youngsters bouncing around with these
charges hanging
over them."
Dlugokecki at 11 P.M. Friday
Mrs. Dlugokecki, Donna's
while a party celebrating the 17th birthday of Mrs. Dlugo-
possession of marijuana and
kecki's daughter, Denna, was
The police
rested everyone in the house.
Cites "Sweet Snoke'
"The place was thick with
Birds…
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Philip N Cohen @philipncohen.com · 08/09/2026
Beginning to think Apple and Google didn't just passively let the US map automatically update to show Lake America, considering NWS and USGIS are still displaying Lake Ontario.
NWS maps showing Lake OntarioUSGS map showing Lake Ontario
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Philip N Cohen @philipncohen.com · 07/09/2026
They will do anything to make sure these headlines have no value. It's deranged
OPINION
GUEST ESSAY
I'm Furious. This TV Show Understands Why.
Sept. 6, 2026, 6:52 a.m. ET
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Philip N Cohen @philipncohen.com · 06/09/2026
Have any fecundity experts commented on this Atlanta Fed analysis of declining birth rates, which attributes much of it to "increased medical difficulty of having children", based on their NSFG analysis? www.atlantafed.org/-/media/Proj...
FEDERAL RESERVE BANK of ATLANTA WORKING PAPER SERIES

What's Behind Declining Birth Rates in the U.S .?

Allen Bradley, Lila Newberry Bradley, Julie Hotchkiss,
Clare Ostle, and Deborah Partey

Working Paper 2026-5
May 2026

Abstract: Using the National Survey of Family Growth, this paper explores reasons behind the falling
birth rate in the United States. The analysis confirms that newer generations of women are less likely
to have any children than generations that came before. Comparing outcomes among women at the
same age, two sources for this decline are identified: (1) a dramatic decrease in the desire to have
children, but only among the youngest generation in the sample (Gen Z) and (2) an increase in the
medical difficulty of having children among all generations of women since the Boomer generation.
Various policies addressing both desire and difficulties are discussed in the context of a goal to arrest
or reverse declining birth rates. The primary contribution of this paper is consideration of increasing
medical difficulty in conceiving and bearing children (impaired fecundity) alongside the current
dominant theory of shifting priorities and preferences of recent cohorts of women.
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Philip N Cohen @philipncohen.com · 05/09/2026
Sisterhood is Powerful was a major phenomenon. (Anthologies were very important.)
Picture of the book
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Philip N Cohen @philipncohen.com · 05/09/2026
On today's passing of radical feminist Robin Morgan, I remember my 1995 letter to the Washington Post noting that Morgan used "politically correct" back in 1970 to mock liberal feminists who were trying to impress leftists. ("PC" was such a clusterfvck.) www.washingtonpost.com/archive/opin...
If, as Jefferson Morley reports, William Safire didn't find uses of the term "politically correct" before 1975, it must be because he (like Morley) wasn't looking for earlier meanings.
Robin Morgan used the term in the introduction to the 1970 feminist anthology,
"Sisterhood Is Powerful" to refer to liberals who thought a few superficial changes in their language or tone would endear them to radical feminists.
No wonder, then, that radicals are infuriated that the term "politically correct" is used to describe a conscious stance of the "left."
PHILIP COHEN Takoma Park
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Philip N Cohen @philipncohen.com · 05/09/2026
I have just the design to promote this new program
Old Nazi poster with three-child family and the words:
MAGA
Protects
The People's
Community
Join the local party
Organization today!
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Philip N Cohen @philipncohen.com · 05/09/2026
Nope. Mary went from behemoth to bit player over the long twentieth century and no one cared. Until I started writing about it 15 years ago... (actually no one still cares) familyinequality.wordpress.com/2011/04/19/t...
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Philip N Cohen @philipncohen.com · 05/09/2026
From 2005 to 2023, naming newborn US girls Nevaeh (Heaven spelled backwards) was more common than naming them Mary.
Trend graph
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Philip N Cohen @philipncohen.com · 04/09/2026
Are you or a loved one desperately scanning your phone for literally any news that means your life may yet be spared? Click here to see if this story is relevant (or just read the news on a site more concerned with providing information to its readers than @nytimes.com)
OPINION
GUEST ESSAY
This Is the Biggest Obstacle to New Cancer Cures
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Philip N Cohen @philipncohen.com · 03/09/2026
184. People over age 65 now outnumber people under age 5 worldwide, for the first time ever (new Census Bureau report)
Trend lines graph
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Philip N Cohen @philipncohen.com · 02/09/2026
Getting to know the new students: "How many books have you read all the way through in the past year?" (Notes show that some excluded assigned books and some didn't)
How many books have you read all the way through in the past year?		
(N=126, majority freshmen)	Count	percent
0	24	19%
1-2	27	21%
3-4	31	25%
5-6	21	17%
7-8	7	6%
9-13	7	6%
14+	9	7%
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Philip N Cohen @philipncohen.com · 02/09/2026
A search for "Lake Ontario" at weather.gov gives "Lake Ontario" at this map. And a search for "Lake America" is blank.
Mapweather.gov
"City, St" or ZIP code
Lake Ontario
Lake Ontario Hamlin State Park, Ha Lake Ontario Overlook, 137 Ontario Lake Ontario Sand Beach, 1371 Lat Lake Ontario Mariners Marina, Henc
Lake Ontario, NY, USA
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