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Paul Heer

@pauljcheer.bsky.social
366 followers 44 following 264 posts

Former National Intelligence Officer for East Asia. Diplomatic historian.

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Paul Heer @pauljcheer.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
In the wake of Xi’s visit to Washington, prospects for real stabilization of the US-China relationship will remain limited as long as the two sides are focused more on maneuvering for advantage than on working together to define "constructive strategic stability." bit.ly/46Ofsr2
bit.ly
Trump and Xi Agree on “Constructive Strategic Stability,” But Differ on What It Means
Prospects for positive breakthroughs and stabilization of the US-China relationship will remain limited as long as the two sides are focused more on maneuvering for advantage than on working to define...
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Paul Heer @pauljcheer.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
If you read one op-ed about Xi Jinping’s visit to Washington, make it this one: www.nytimes.com/2026/09/23/o...
nytimes.com
Opinion | Trump and Xi Have to Find a Way to Coexist (Gift Article)
Neither the United States nor China can bend the other to its will, and it’s time for them to settle for a durable détente.
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Paul Heer @pauljcheer.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
Trump's (fortified) arch would be roughly the height of the Arc de Triomphe in Paris with the Lincoln Memorial stacked on top of it.
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Paul Heer @pauljcheer.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
Every GOP Member of Congress who is now back in their home district to campaign for the mid-terms should be asked if they think this is a good idea and will support it.
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Paul Heer @pauljcheer.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
"The biggest obstacle to ‘constructive strategic stability’ in US–China relations is the instability posed by Trump himself." eastasiaforum.org/2026/09/20/t...
eastasiaforum.org
Trump’s instability undercuts genuine US–China stabilisation
As the countdown for Xi’s visit nears, Washington — mired in bureaucratic dysfunction and steered by the whims of an unpredictable president — is still far from any consensus on what ‘constructive str...
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Paul Heer @pauljcheer.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
"Xi equates compromise with weakness and has a hard time understanding the give-a-little-to-get-a-little logic that is the heart and soul of diplomacy." This also describes Trump.
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Paul Heer @pauljcheer.bsky.social · 04/09/2026
"What we need is a shared understanding of how the United States and China are going to cohabit this planet."
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Paul Heer @pauljcheer.bsky.social · 29/08/2026
Farm girl has a weird dream. Or: boy sent off to school away from his sled.
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Paul Heer @pauljcheer.bsky.social · 29/08/2026
Married woman runs into an old boyfriend at the bar he owns.
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Paul Heer @pauljcheer.bsky.social · 28/08/2026
Every day it becomes more astounding how much the Republicans in Congress are simultaneously (a) possessed by the belief that Trump is serving their party's interests; and (b) consumed with the fear of what Trump and his supporters might do to them.
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Paul Heer @pauljcheer.bsky.social · 07/08/2026
"Books like Crime and Punishment, Dune, or The Way of Kings"? How is Crime and Punishment remotely "like" those other books?
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Paul Heer @pauljcheer.bsky.social · 07/08/2026
"The choice is not between perfection and Mr. Blanche. It is between Mr. Blanche and another acting attorney general who . . . may not be as good as Mr. Blanche." May not be as good?! How about "may not be as bad" or "may be better"?
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Paul Heer @pauljcheer.bsky.social · 07/08/2026
I agree that folks are turning to democratic socialists out of exasperation that nothing else seems to work against Trumpism. But democratic socialists will alienate more voters than they will draw away from the GOP, and the latter is what is most needed. Only moderate Democrats could do that.
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Paul Heer @pauljcheer.bsky.social · 07/08/2026
I thought Nolan's "The Odyssey" was a spectacle, but nonetheless a sanctimonious comic book.
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Paul Heer @pauljcheer.bsky.social · 06/08/2026
Fauci is deemed in contempt of Congress because Congress is in contempt of Fauci.
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Paul Heer @pauljcheer.bsky.social · 29/07/2026
Regarding Fauci: neither a lab leak nor a natural origin of COVID-19 has been either proven or disproven. But how likely is it that Beijing knew it was a lab leak and covered it up--and that no evidence of either that knowledge or that coverup ever appeared in the intelligence record?
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Paul Heer @pauljcheer.bsky.social · 17/07/2026
This is Trump's most egregious assault yet on American democracy. Understand what he intends to do here: challenge the results of every midterm Congressional election in which a Republican loses a seat. It will be a repeat of January 6 in multiple state capitals.
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Paul Heer @pauljcheer.bsky.social · 08/07/2026
"The principal lesson of the war in Ukraine is that a nation determined to survive must be willing to learn how to defend itself.” But it's not only about military deterrence. A nation determined to survive must also be willing to find a diplomatic off-ramp from the road to conflict.
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Paul Heer @pauljcheer.bsky.social · 01/07/2026
I'd welcome invaders from the Canadian steppe.
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Paul Heer @pauljcheer.bsky.social · 01/07/2026
I remember the excitement of the Bicentennial in 1976. That's why it's especially disappointing that I find it hard to get excited about the 250th: there seems so much less to celebrate with Trump in charge, and with him commandeering the event for his own aggrandizement.
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Paul Heer @pauljcheer.bsky.social · 29/06/2026
“Washington’s rimland coalition . . . is being tested in every domain"--mostly by Washington itself. There is no "autocratic axis" and there is no "US-led coalition." This article is either movie script or a game of "Risk."
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Paul Heer @pauljcheer.bsky.social · 24/06/2026
"Washington should be confronting the complex and difficult issues raised by Cheng’s engagement with Beijing rather than dismissing it as appeasement, doubling down on military deterrence, and pretending that the US 'one China policy' remains clear, consistent, and credible."
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Paul Heer @pauljcheer.bsky.social · 24/06/2026
KMT leader Cheng Li-wun's visit to the US raised several key questions about Taiwan that Washington needs to confront: nationalinterest.org/feature/why-...
nationalinterest.org
Why the US Shouldn’t Dismiss Taiwan’s Cheng Li-wun
The Kuomintang’s recent visit to the United States underscores how rigid the US-Taiwan policy has become.
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Paul Heer @pauljcheer.bsky.social · 15/06/2026
Indeed, the lawlessness and corruption and mendacity and incompetence and strategic incoherence are the core problem. I was just struck by the overarching veneer of lowbrow commercial vulgarity that was especially on display last night on the South Lawn.
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Paul Heer @pauljcheer.bsky.social · 15/06/2026
It's hard to grasp the meaning and significance of the White House having been degraded into the worst aspects of Las Vegas and Atlantic City. And to understand how this was allowed to happen.
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Paul Heer @pauljcheer.bsky.social · 30/05/2026
This is an important reminder that Trump has allowed a team of fanatics and ideologues to make him the vehicle for their profoundly retrogressive and destructive policy agendas.
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Reposted by Paul Heer
Zack Cooper @zackcooper.bsky.social · 15/05/2026
POMP AND CIRCUMSTANCE, SIGNIFYING NOTHING. That's my Trump-Xi take... Few deals. No breakthroughs. But thankfully no US concessions on Taiwan or tech. Hard to call this summit a success, since it didn't really address any US-China structural problems. Yet not a disaster either.
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Paul Heer @pauljcheer.bsky.social · 14/05/2026
"In the meeting, Trump did not respond to Xi’s comments about Taiwan and moved on to the next topic without acknowledging them at all, according to a White House official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss the sensitive closed-door meeting." (From the Washington Post)
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Paul Heer @pauljcheer.bsky.social · 11/05/2026
Prediction: Whatever transpires at the Trump-Xi summit this week, it will have a very short shelf life. Then we can all start spinning narratives again until their next meeting.
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Paul Heer @pauljcheer.bsky.social · 11/05/2026
Is that dark portrait not accurate?
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Paul Heer @pauljcheer.bsky.social · 09/05/2026
What should Washington do about this?  Are we comfortable with Beijing judging that time is on its side?  IS time on its side?  How could we undermine Beijing's confidence in its strategy?  Should we want to?
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Paul Heer @pauljcheer.bsky.social · 30/04/2026
(3/3) Rather than focusing exclusively on the need to prepare for either a war or a crisis, Washington should be directing some attention toward diplomatic ways to avert either by clarifying what the “one China” policy actually means. (END)
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Paul Heer @pauljcheer.bsky.social · 30/04/2026
(2/3) . . . the existing one is that neither confronts the holes in Washington’s “ambiguous position.” Both strategies seek to protect Taiwan from China—by responding to coercion with coercion—even though US policy refuses to affirm whether Taiwan is or is not part of China.
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Paul Heer @pauljcheer.bsky.social · 30/04/2026
(1/3) "Washington needs to modernize the way it communicates its ambiguous position [on Taiwan's status], warning Beijing that gray-zone coercion in one domain may trigger proportionate US responses in others.” The problem with both this proposed strategy and . . .
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Paul Heer @pauljcheer.bsky.social · 29/04/2026
"The preoccupation in Washington and Tokyo with the threat of a potential Chinese attack on Taiwan diverts attention—intentionally or otherwise—away from the erosion and obfuscation of their 'one China' policies." nationalinterest.org/feature/chin...
nationalinterest.org
China Never Promised a Peaceful Resolution of the Taiwan Issue
The United States and Japan risk moving the goalposts of their “one China” policies well outside of their previous agreements with China.
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Paul Heer @pauljcheer.bsky.social · 28/04/2026
They are pioneering a new concept: vindictive stupidity.
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Paul Heer @pauljcheer.bsky.social · 28/04/2026
Washington and Tokyo appear to have made their "one China" policies contingent on a Chinese commitment not to use force against Taiwan--a commitment that Beijing never made. nationalinterest.org/feature/chin...
nationalinterest.org
China Never Promised a Peaceful Resolution of the Taiwan Issue
The United States and Japan risk moving the goalposts of their “one China” policies well outside of their previous agreements with China.
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Paul Heer @pauljcheer.bsky.social · 21/04/2026
It's "simple medical autonomy"! Because COVID vaccines were the "era of betrayal"!
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Paul Heer @pauljcheer.bsky.social · 15/04/2026
Speaking of college towns: I recall a decade ago having lunch at a restaurant in Harvard Square and overhearing a conversation at the next table in which someone used the word "heterogeneity." My first thought was that that could only happen in a college town.
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Paul Heer @pauljcheer.bsky.social · 02/04/2026
The problem with the firing of Bondi and the potential firing of Gabbard (et al.) is that Trump's goal is to replace them with ever-more-loyal-and-responsive sycophants. Don't expect improvement.
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Paul Heer @pauljcheer.bsky.social · 19/03/2026
Get ready for a kitschy cringey whitewashed Christian nationalist celebration of the United States' 250th anniversary! www.nytimes.com/2026/03/18/a...
nytimes.com
A Peek Into Trump’s Planning of America’s 250th Suggests a Religious Focus
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Paul Heer @pauljcheer.bsky.social · 18/03/2026
DNI Gabbard in today's Congressional testimony: “the only person who can determine what is and is not an imminent threat is the president.”
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Paul Heer @pauljcheer.bsky.social · 18/03/2026
3/END Note that these goals do NOT include seeking to supplant the United States as the leading world power. Beijing's central objective is instead to maximize its clout in a multipolar world.
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Paul Heer @pauljcheer.bsky.social · 18/03/2026
2/ " . . . reduce U.S. military presence and operations on its periphery; and fend off challenges to its reputation, legitimacy, and capabilities at home and abroad. China also sees benefits to and is prioritizing a productive, stable economic relationship with the US."
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Paul Heer @pauljcheer.bsky.social · 18/03/2026
1/ "China will seek to increase its power and influence to shape its region and world events; create an environment favorable to Chinese interests; overcome perceived containment efforts by the U.S.; secure its freedom of movement at sea; . . . "
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Paul Heer @pauljcheer.bsky.social · 18/03/2026
Here's the US Intelligence Community's 2026 Annual Threat Assessment, released today: www.dni.gov/files/ODNI/d...
dni.gov
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Paul Heer @pauljcheer.bsky.social · 17/03/2026
10/END "At the moment there is very little going on in either city to display the wisdom and ability that creating such an outcome would depend on."
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Paul Heer @pauljcheer.bsky.social · 17/03/2026
9/ "[The Taiwan issue in particular] makes for an explosive mix, which, in case of an acute crisis, can only be defused through political decisions in Beijing and Washington to avoid Great Power war."
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Paul Heer @pauljcheer.bsky.social · 17/03/2026
8/ "The task is how to manage the transition to multipolarity without creating the kind of spheres of influence for Great Powers that are based solely on might making right."
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Paul Heer @pauljcheer.bsky.social · 17/03/2026
7/ "A multipolar world is not something that individual Great Powers can choose or prevent. It is happening today because of changes in the underlying economic and social structure of world affairs."
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