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Paul Heer

@pauljcheer.bsky.social
366 followers 44 following 264 posts

Former National Intelligence Officer for East Asia. Diplomatic historian.

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Paul Heer @pauljcheer.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
In the wake of Xi’s visit to Washington, prospects for real stabilization of the US-China relationship will remain limited as long as the two sides are focused more on maneuvering for advantage than on working together to define "constructive strategic stability." bit.ly/46Ofsr2
bit.ly
Trump and Xi Agree on “Constructive Strategic Stability,” But Differ on What It Means
Prospects for positive breakthroughs and stabilization of the US-China relationship will remain limited as long as the two sides are focused more on maneuvering for advantage than on working to define...
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Paul Heer @pauljcheer.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
If you read one op-ed about Xi Jinping’s visit to Washington, make it this one: www.nytimes.com/2026/09/23/o...
nytimes.com
Opinion | Trump and Xi Have to Find a Way to Coexist (Gift Article)
Neither the United States nor China can bend the other to its will, and it’s time for them to settle for a durable détente.
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Paul Heer @pauljcheer.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
Trump's (fortified) arch would be roughly the height of the Arc de Triomphe in Paris with the Lincoln Memorial stacked on top of it.
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Paul Heer @pauljcheer.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
Every GOP Member of Congress who is now back in their home district to campaign for the mid-terms should be asked if they think this is a good idea and will support it.
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Paul Heer @pauljcheer.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
"The biggest obstacle to ‘constructive strategic stability’ in US–China relations is the instability posed by Trump himself." eastasiaforum.org/2026/09/20/t...
eastasiaforum.org
Trump’s instability undercuts genuine US–China stabilisation
As the countdown for Xi’s visit nears, Washington — mired in bureaucratic dysfunction and steered by the whims of an unpredictable president — is still far from any consensus on what ‘constructive str...
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Paul Heer @pauljcheer.bsky.social · 04/09/2026
"What we need is a shared understanding of how the United States and China are going to cohabit this planet."
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Paul Heer @pauljcheer.bsky.social · 28/08/2026
Every day it becomes more astounding how much the Republicans in Congress are simultaneously (a) possessed by the belief that Trump is serving their party's interests; and (b) consumed with the fear of what Trump and his supporters might do to them.
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Paul Heer @pauljcheer.bsky.social · 06/08/2026
Fauci is deemed in contempt of Congress because Congress is in contempt of Fauci.
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Paul Heer @pauljcheer.bsky.social · 29/07/2026
Regarding Fauci: neither a lab leak nor a natural origin of COVID-19 has been either proven or disproven. But how likely is it that Beijing knew it was a lab leak and covered it up--and that no evidence of either that knowledge or that coverup ever appeared in the intelligence record?
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Paul Heer @pauljcheer.bsky.social · 17/07/2026
This is Trump's most egregious assault yet on American democracy. Understand what he intends to do here: challenge the results of every midterm Congressional election in which a Republican loses a seat. It will be a repeat of January 6 in multiple state capitals.
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Paul Heer @pauljcheer.bsky.social · 01/07/2026
I remember the excitement of the Bicentennial in 1976. That's why it's especially disappointing that I find it hard to get excited about the 250th: there seems so much less to celebrate with Trump in charge, and with him commandeering the event for his own aggrandizement.
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Paul Heer @pauljcheer.bsky.social · 24/06/2026
"Washington should be confronting the complex and difficult issues raised by Cheng’s engagement with Beijing rather than dismissing it as appeasement, doubling down on military deterrence, and pretending that the US 'one China policy' remains clear, consistent, and credible."
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Paul Heer @pauljcheer.bsky.social · 24/06/2026
KMT leader Cheng Li-wun's visit to the US raised several key questions about Taiwan that Washington needs to confront: nationalinterest.org/feature/why-...
nationalinterest.org
Why the US Shouldn’t Dismiss Taiwan’s Cheng Li-wun
The Kuomintang’s recent visit to the United States underscores how rigid the US-Taiwan policy has become.
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Paul Heer @pauljcheer.bsky.social · 15/06/2026
It's hard to grasp the meaning and significance of the White House having been degraded into the worst aspects of Las Vegas and Atlantic City. And to understand how this was allowed to happen.
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Reposted by Paul Heer
Zack Cooper @zackcooper.bsky.social · 15/05/2026
POMP AND CIRCUMSTANCE, SIGNIFYING NOTHING. That's my Trump-Xi take... Few deals. No breakthroughs. But thankfully no US concessions on Taiwan or tech. Hard to call this summit a success, since it didn't really address any US-China structural problems. Yet not a disaster either.
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Paul Heer @pauljcheer.bsky.social · 14/05/2026
"In the meeting, Trump did not respond to Xi’s comments about Taiwan and moved on to the next topic without acknowledging them at all, according to a White House official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss the sensitive closed-door meeting." (From the Washington Post)
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Paul Heer @pauljcheer.bsky.social · 11/05/2026
Prediction: Whatever transpires at the Trump-Xi summit this week, it will have a very short shelf life. Then we can all start spinning narratives again until their next meeting.
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Paul Heer @pauljcheer.bsky.social · 11/05/2026
Is that dark portrait not accurate?
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Paul Heer @pauljcheer.bsky.social · 29/04/2026
"The preoccupation in Washington and Tokyo with the threat of a potential Chinese attack on Taiwan diverts attention—intentionally or otherwise—away from the erosion and obfuscation of their 'one China' policies." nationalinterest.org/feature/chin...
nationalinterest.org
China Never Promised a Peaceful Resolution of the Taiwan Issue
The United States and Japan risk moving the goalposts of their “one China” policies well outside of their previous agreements with China.
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Paul Heer @pauljcheer.bsky.social · 28/04/2026
Washington and Tokyo appear to have made their "one China" policies contingent on a Chinese commitment not to use force against Taiwan--a commitment that Beijing never made. nationalinterest.org/feature/chin...
nationalinterest.org
China Never Promised a Peaceful Resolution of the Taiwan Issue
The United States and Japan risk moving the goalposts of their “one China” policies well outside of their previous agreements with China.
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Paul Heer @pauljcheer.bsky.social · 19/03/2026
Get ready for a kitschy cringey whitewashed Christian nationalist celebration of the United States' 250th anniversary! www.nytimes.com/2026/03/18/a...
nytimes.com
A Peek Into Trump’s Planning of America’s 250th Suggests a Religious Focus
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Paul Heer @pauljcheer.bsky.social · 18/03/2026
DNI Gabbard in today's Congressional testimony: “the only person who can determine what is and is not an imminent threat is the president.”
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Paul Heer @pauljcheer.bsky.social · 18/03/2026
Here's the US Intelligence Community's 2026 Annual Threat Assessment, released today: www.dni.gov/files/ODNI/d...
dni.gov
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Paul Heer @pauljcheer.bsky.social · 17/03/2026
1/ A new book by Odd Arne Westad, “The Coming Storm: Power, Conflict, and Warnings from History,” is a must-read on the future of US-China relations. It compares today’s international environment with the eve of World War I, drawing lessons and warnings of immediate relevance. Some key excerpts:
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Paul Heer @pauljcheer.bsky.social · 17/03/2026
"It is too soon to say how degraded American power will be by the end of this administration."
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Paul Heer @pauljcheer.bsky.social · 16/03/2026
Stop trying to understand or explain Trump's foreign policy thinking in terms of logic, coherence, insight, or strategy. It's just the functional equivalent of a Magic 8 Ball.
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Paul Heer @pauljcheer.bsky.social · 08/03/2026
For those Republicans who dismiss Trump's critics as afflicted by "Trump Derangement Syndrome": (1) Are there any things Trump has done that you don't like? (2) What do you think should be done about those things? (3) Why isn't something being done about those things?
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Paul Heer @pauljcheer.bsky.social · 07/03/2026
Great thread. Operation Epic Fury could also reinforce Beijing's belief that time is on its side with regard to Taiwan: if the US preoccupation with Iran undermines Taiwan's confidence in US attention and protection, it might reduce the possibility that Beijing sees the need to use force.
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Paul Heer @pauljcheer.bsky.social · 07/03/2026
Just FYI: Iran is a big country. And its population is 25% that of the United States. Imagine trying to bomb an area this large into submission.
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Paul Heer @pauljcheer.bsky.social · 05/03/2026
Will he give the Nobel Peace Prize back to María Corina Machado?
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Paul Heer @pauljcheer.bsky.social · 04/03/2026
Yes! Folks should stop fantasizing that the war in Iran has left China scrambling. See also: carnegieendowment.org/emissary/202...
carnegieendowment.org
Beijing Doesn’t Think Like Washington—and the Iran Conflict Shows Why
Arguing that Chinese policy is hung on alliances—with imputations of obligation—misses the point.
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Reposted by Paul Heer
Max Boot @maxboot.bsky.social · 04/03/2026
At a time when the Pentagon warns about competition with China, voluntarily pulling U.S. military officers out of the world’s most important research and policy institutions is not a show of strength. It is a strategic retreat. www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/202...
washingtonpost.com
Opinion | Why U.S. military officers need to go to Harvard. And Columbia. And …
The civil-military-academic ecosystem is the foundation of American geopolitical power.
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Paul Heer @pauljcheer.bsky.social · 03/03/2026
Great quote on the PBS Newshour from former US diplomat Alan Eyre: "I think this administration is trying to justify the war the same way Jackson Pollock used to paint. You just throw a bucket of reasons up against the canvas and hope the result looks good."
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Paul Heer @pauljcheer.bsky.social · 02/03/2026
Hegseth said at the press conference this morning that Trump's decision to attack Iran was "unlike other presidents [whose] foolish policies of the past that recklessly pulled us into things that were not tethered to actual clear objectives."
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Paul Heer @pauljcheer.bsky.social · 02/03/2026
"For they sow the wind, and they shall reap the whirlwind." Hosea 8:7
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Paul Heer @pauljcheer.bsky.social · 25/02/2026
Trump challenged the Democrats to agree that "The first duty of the American government is to protect American citizens, not illegal aliens.” Here's an alternative: "The first duty of the American government is to protect American citizens, not make money for the president's family and friends."
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Paul Heer @pauljcheer.bsky.social · 14/02/2026
Rubio in Munich: "Our great midwestern heartland was built by German farmers and craftsmen who transformed empty plains into a global agricultural powerhouse." But the plains were not in fact empty. Native farmers and craftsmen had been here for thousands of years.
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Paul Heer @pauljcheer.bsky.social · 11/02/2026
I keep hearing from politicians from both US parties about what "the American people want" or what "the American people want to know." But many of these are things that I do not want or do not want to know.
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Paul Heer @pauljcheer.bsky.social · 10/02/2026
Takaichi's election victory does not erase the fact that her comments about Taiwan in the Diet last November obfuscated and eroded Tokyo's one-China policy. That issue still needs to be addressed and persuasively clarified.
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Paul Heer @pauljcheer.bsky.social · 06/02/2026
People should stop talking and thinking about the Trump Administration's National Security Strategy and National Defense Strategy as if Trump himself knows what they say.
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Reposted by Paul Heer
Paul Heer @pauljcheer.bsky.social · 30/01/2026
"Washington’s 'one China' policy continues to erode, with potentially dire consequences if Washington persists in denying this erosion and Beijing continues to find the denials unpersuasive." nationalinterest.org/feature/why-...
nationalinterest.org
Why the US’ “One China Policy” Is Fading Away
The White House’s recently published strategic documents further the US’ drift away from the original meaning of the “one China” policy.
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Reposted by Paul Heer
Max Boot @maxboot.bsky.social · 30/01/2026
The DNI is pursuing crackpot conspiracy theories about the 2020 election being “stolen” by Biden, while lowering the intelligence community’s defenses against future foreign election interference. www.washingtonpost.com/national-sec...
washingtonpost.com
Tulsi Gabbard’s appearance at Fulton County FBI raid raises questions
Lawmakers called for the Office of the Director of National Intelligence to explain the presence of the nation’s top spy at a domestic law enforcement action in Georgia.
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Paul Heer @pauljcheer.bsky.social · 30/01/2026
"Washington’s 'one China' policy continues to erode, with potentially dire consequences if Washington persists in denying this erosion and Beijing continues to find the denials unpersuasive." nationalinterest.org/feature/why-...
nationalinterest.org
Why the US’ “One China Policy” Is Fading Away
The White House’s recently published strategic documents further the US’ drift away from the original meaning of the “one China” policy.
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Paul Heer @pauljcheer.bsky.social · 22/01/2026
Artificial intelligence may be a form of intelligence, but it will always be artificial, and thus imperfect. Human intelligence is also imperfect, but as a human I will always have more confidence and faith in it.
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Paul Heer @pauljcheer.bsky.social · 13/01/2026
Has a consensus emerged that when Trump told the New York Times last week that his power was limited only by his "own morality," that he actually meant to say "mortality"?
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Paul Heer @pauljcheer.bsky.social · 12/01/2026
Best Trump lines from the New York Times interview: "Everything I’ve read has been proven." "I did do that? When did I do that?" "I always respect the results of elections, but the elections in our country are rigged." "I just hate dishonest people." "I love democracy. I’m a big fan."
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Paul Heer @pauljcheer.bsky.social · 04/01/2026
(1/3) It’s appropriate to criticize China for accusing the US of violating international law in Venezuela but not accusing Russia of violating it in Ukraine. But Beijing obviously has diplomatic reasons for condemning Washington and for not condemning Moscow. . . .
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Paul Heer @pauljcheer.bsky.social · 03/01/2026
"The Trump administration’s attack on Venezuela gives Beijing another opening to portray China as a more responsible international actor than the United States."
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Paul Heer @pauljcheer.bsky.social · 03/01/2026
Something was needed to distract attention from the fifth anniversary of January 6.
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Paul Heer @pauljcheer.bsky.social · 17/12/2025
In the current dispute between Japan and China over Taiwan, Washington and Tokyo are relying on a highly selective reading of history. They are also obscuring the erosion over time of their positions on “one China.” My take: nationalinterest.org/feature/why-...
nationalinterest.org
Why Taiwan’s Status Can’t Stay “Undetermined”
The United States and Japan’s vague, ahistorical version of the “one China” policy is inflaming tensions with Beijing.
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