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Oyster Analytics @oysteranalytics.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

Back when he was still a Marlin, Mesa was our Miami player to watch headed into 2026. We loved his combo of contact and power, even if it came with a ton of chase. One 2.6 WAR season and a clutch HR later, he's overachieved our hyper-bullish preseason projection!

Victor Mesa Jr., Miami Marlins prospect, is ranked No. 70 overall and No. 2 in the Marlins system. Career outcome probabilities are 85% Contributor, 37% Regular, and 15% Star. Relative stats vs. league average: 0.93 development speed, -0.62 discipline, 0.71 strikeout avoidance, 0.65 contact, 0.00 gap power, 0.30 home-run power, and -0.08 lift. The career outcome chart shows a strong concentration of projected WAR in the first two seasons, with the distribution tapering steadily afterward and a smaller portion reaching the 3+ WAR/season Star range. Comp: Alek Thomas, 2024.

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Oyster Analytics @oysteranalytics.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

Nimmala is back at it, with an AFL HR! Our #4 overall prospect has been dominant since joining the Angels, and he's continuing his run in the AFL. He made strides in his hit tool and glove this season, while maintaining the lift and pop that make him special. The Angels got a good one!

Arjun Nimmala, SS for Low-A, is ranked No. 4 overall and the No. 1 LAA prospect. Career outcome probabilities: 99% Contributor, 99% Regular, 93% Star. Relative stats vs. league average: Development Speed +1.82 SD, Gap Power +1.18, HR Power +0.75, Lift +0.54, Discipline +0.44, Avoid K +0.26, Contact +0.14. His listed comp is Yu Chang, 2016. The career-outcome chart shows a very high probability of positive WAR seasons through roughly three seasons, with probabilities declining gradually thereafter; the highlighted thresholds are Contributor, Regular, and Star. Confidence meter is very high.

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Oyster Analytics @oysteranalytics.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

A big HR for Meidroth! He was once an Oyster dandy (this was April 2025), and with his improved pull and elevation, his power rose from poor to below average, letting his other exceptional attributes shine. He was perhaps a bit lucky on his batted-ball outcomes, but a 4.5 WAR season is legit!

Chase Meidroth's future projection shows a 91% chance of being a Contributor, an 80% chance of being a Regular, and an 18% chance of becoming a Star.

Relative Statistics, measured by standard deviations from the mean, include the following metrics:

Discipline: +2.30

Development Speed: +1.58

Avoid K: +1.44

Contact: +0.32

Gap Power: -0.37

Home Run Power: -0.55

His most comparable player is Che Hsuan Lin (2010).

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Oyster Analytics @oysteranalytics.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

We mentioned Virahonda in our recording of tomorrow's podcast, and we think he's worthy of legit prospect status. He makes a boatload of contact, added power, and a raised walk rate in A+ is a sign of improved discipline. He's lurking outside of our top 100.

Carlos Virahonda, an Arizona Diamondbacks catcher, is ranked #134 overall and #4 among Arizona prospects. His career outcome probabilities are 40% Contributor, 32% Regular, and 6% Star. Relative stats show development speed +0.99 SD, discipline -0.88, strikeout avoidance +0.98, contact +0.62, gap power +0.15, home-run power +1.08, and lift +0.69 versus league average. The career-outcome chart shows the probability distribution for his peak WAR per season, with most of the probability concentrated below 2 WAR, a smaller tail extending toward 3+ WAR, and the Star threshold highlighted around 3 WAR. His listed comparison is Omar Narvaez (2013).

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Oyster Analytics @oysteranalytics.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

Ben Malgeri was liked by our modeling heading into the season, but has faded a bit since. Regardless, with a strong glove and good contact, he's an ideal bench bat, and he's been a fantastic rotation player for Detroit this season. We think he's a model beater!

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Oyster Analytics @oysteranalytics.bsky.social · 10/09/2026

Our model took a long time to come around on De Paula, but it's now sold on his bat. He may have the best bat in the minors, but his corner OF status dents his ceiling a bit. Almost no hitters have his power, average, and discipline, and he'll be a day-one problem for MLB arms!

Josue De Paula, LAD OF prospect, is ranked #25 overall and #2 Dodgers prospect. The model gives him a 96% chance to become a Contributor, 93% Regular, and 39% Star. Relative stats vs. league average: Development Speed +1.40 SD, Discipline +0.86, Avoid K +1.20, Contact +0.99, Gap Power +0.93, HR Power +0.90, Lift +0.74. His player comp is Ryan Waldschmidt, 2025. The career-outcome chart shows a strong probability of sustained above-average production: nearly all simulated outcomes reach the Contributor and Regular thresholds, while about 39% reach the Star threshold. The distribution is concentrated around roughly 0.5–3 WAR per season, with a smaller tail extending beyond 4 WAR. Confidence meter is very high.

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Oyster Analytics @oysteranalytics.bsky.social · 07/09/2026

Walcott is RED hot, and the biggest reason why is his elevated lift rates. He has always been a big EV guy, but until this season, he had GB% in the 40% range. Now, he's at 31.2% in AA, and he's smashing line drives. With skills like this, perhaps he hits #1 overall?

Sebastian Walcott, Texas shortstop, prospect graphic. Walcott is ranked No. 5 overall and No. 1 Texas prospect. He has a 99% probability of becoming a Contributor, 99% probability of becoming a Regular, and 97% probability of becoming a Star. His relative stats are 2.1 standard deviations above league average in development speed, 0.54 in discipline, 0.48 in avoiding strikeouts, 0.78 in contact, 0.82 in gap power, 0.61 in home-run power, and -0.39 in lift. The career outcome chart shows a very high probability of reaching the Contributor and Regular thresholds, with the distribution remaining above the Star threshold of roughly 3 WAR per season in 97% of outcomes. The probability declines steadily for outcomes above 3 WAR, with relatively few projections reaching 4 WAR or higher, indicating the model views star-level production as highly likely while elite 4-to-5 WAR seasons represent the upper end of the distribution. Player comp: Tim Beckham, 2011. Confidence meter is nearly full.

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Oyster Analytics @oysteranalytics.bsky.social · 31/08/2026

Our model is sold on Montes! Despite the clear contact concerns, Montes is an elite power bat who is also a prolific lifter, giving him tons of chances to do damage. His splits aren't great vs LHP, but at 21, he has a year of improvement ahead of him.

Lazaro Montes — SEA, RF

#8 Overall | #1 SEA Prospect

Career Outcome Probabilities

Contributor: 96%
Regular: 96%
Star: 93%

Relative Stats (SD from League Avg.)

Dev Spd: +1.57
Disc: +1.12
Avoid K: -0.92
Contact: +0.06
Gap Pwr: -0.04
HR Pwr: +2.83
Lift: +1.00

Career Outcome chart: Prime WAR per Season ranges from >0 to 5.0, with the 1-WAR “Contributor,” 2-WAR “Regular,” and 3-WAR “Star” benchmarks highlighted.

Comp: Andy Pages, 2021.

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Oyster Analytics @oysteranalytics.bsky.social · 27/08/2026

We've been excited for the call-up of Jenkins for a while! We affectionately call him the most "boring" of our top prospects, as he lacks any super-plus tools. However, almost nobody has the plus contact, lift, discipline, and now power that Jenkins possesses. He'll be huge for the playoff push!

Prospect card for Walker Jenkins, listed as #20 overall and #1 Twins prospect. Shows MIN, CF; 97% probability of becoming a Contributor, 92% Regular, and 78% Star. Relative stats: Development Speed 1.75, Discipline 0.58, Avoid K 0.59, Contact 1.32, Gap Power 0.39, HR Power 0.78, Lift 1.12. Comparison player: Carson Benge (2025).

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Oyster Analytics @oysteranalytics.bsky.social · 27/08/2026

Our model likes him a ton. He clearly has a lot of chase with his low walk rates, but even with the chase, he still creates big, pulled, elevated (in 2026) pop. I think he will have to swing a bit less to make the profile effective later, but we prefer him to the Cards' other Báez.

Prospect card for Jesus Baez, listed as #43 overall and #2 Cardinals prospect. Shows STL, SS; 54% probabilities for Contributor, Regular, and Star outcomes. Relative stats: Development Speed 1.16, Discipline -1.13, Avoid K 1.21, Contact 0.78, Gap Power -0.36, HR Power 2.71, Lift -0.21. Comparison player: Isaac Paredes (2018).

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Oyster Analytics @oysteranalytics.bsky.social · 27/08/2026

Héctor has been looming around our 100th-ranked bat for a while, and his combo of contact and power is fantastic. He's also a big chaser who rarely walks, so his contact truly needs to shine. If he can make strides defensively or slightly cut his chase, he'll hit his ceiling.

Prospect card for Héctor Rodríguez, a Cincinnati Reds catcher/left fielder. Rodríguez is ranked No. 102 overall and No. 3 among Cincinnati prospects. His projected career outcomes are 57% Contributor, 34% Regular, and 9% Star. Relative stats show above-average development speed (1.46), contact (0.73), avoid-K (0.58), and home-run power (1.32), with below-average discipline (-0.67), gap power (-0.19), and lift (-0.30). The career outcome chart shows probabilities of achieving different levels of WAR per season, with Contributor, Regular, and Star outcomes highlighted. Comparable player: Alec Burleson, 2022.

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Oyster Analytics @oysteranalytics.bsky.social · 14/08/2026

Baez finally gets the call. His swing-and-miss and high chase rates could prove problematic early on, but his raw power and pull-and-lift ability make him a truly premier power bat. Our model isn't entirely sold, believing he needs either contact or BB improvements to be elite!

Twitter alt text: Joshua Baez, STL RF, prospect card. Ranked #231 overall and #13 Cardinals prospect. Relative stats vs. league average: Dev Spd 1.00, Disc -0.47, Avoid K -0.71, Contact 0.27, Gap Pwr 0.34, HR Pwr 2.04, Lift 1.00 SD. Career outcome probabilities show 18% Contributor, 17% Regular, and 5% Star. Composite: Jeremy Hazelbaker, 2012.

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Oyster Analytics @oysteranalytics.bsky.social · 09/08/2026

Veen has been one of the hottest players in MiLB over the last month, and last night's performance was one for the ages! At 24, he doesn't have too much else to prove in AAA, and he's a well-rounded bat. One flaw is a 35.4% chase rate, which could prove trouble in the show.

Zac Veen prospect card. Veen is a 24-year-old Colorado Rockies AAA outfielder who plays LF/RF. Oyster Projections: 53% Contributor, 42% Regular, 8% Star. Yesterday: 5-for-5 with 3 HR, 1 double, 1 triple. Last 7 days: 12-for-24 with 5 HR, 4 doubles, 1 triple, 2 walks, 1 HBP, 6 strikeouts and 2 stolen bases. Last 25 games: 115 PA, .346/.409/.798 with a 20% strikeout rate, 7.8% walk rate and 8.7% HR rate. Streak: Hot — Not Conclusive. Rank trend: up 3 spots this month.

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Oyster Analytics @oysteranalytics.bsky.social · 06/08/2026

We also saw the @milwaukeebrewers.bsky.social Brailyn Antunez in Wilson, and his swing looked smooth, long but direct, and powerful! Most importantly, his contact metrics have improved a ton in his time in Single-A, and these gains haven't resulted in a loss of pop. Could be a fast riser!

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Oyster Analytics @oysteranalytics.bsky.social · 05/08/2026

We saw new Cardinal Alexander Frias in action last week, and we were impressed! He consistently hits the ball hard (as he did below) and has fantastic power and discipline. Our one quibble comes from his busy hands in the load phase, but 18-year-olds aren't ever complete!

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Oyster Analytics @oysteranalytics.bsky.social · 03/08/2026

Enddy is our 67th-overall hitter, and he's a rare triple threat in contact, power, and K avoidance. His contact rates aren't amazing, though, and are the biggest threat to his road to the show. Also a + OF, a solid acquisition for the @orioles.com! @oriolesontheverge.bsky.social

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Oyster Analytics @oysteranalytics.bsky.social · 02/08/2026

Bryan Rincon has always been a bag swiper for the @phillies.com, but his pro prospects are on the rise due to a rare combo of improved power and lowered Ks after moving up a level to the @fightinphils.bsky.social! He’s deep in our rankings, but if the trend continues, he’s a hidden 💎

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Oyster Analytics @oysteranalytics.bsky.social · 01/08/2026

O’s prospect Jaiden Lo Re hits an absolute tank to LF! Smashes like this prove the power is at least present, and he has some of the best bat to ball in the lower minors @oriolesontheverge.bsky.social is a believer, and so are we!

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Oyster Analytics @oysteranalytics.bsky.social · 26/07/2026

Excited to take in the Dayton Dragons game! High-potential SS Tyson Lewis has had a decent stretch recently! He still has contact struggles, but he’s a player with real upside!

Dayton park, with Tyson Lewis at the dish

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Oyster Analytics @oysteranalytics.bsky.social · 23/07/2026

Newly promoted Triantos is a high-floor utility-type player with elite bat-to-ball skills but somewhat poor discipline, with high chase and walk rates. His future success depends on building strength, as he'll likely need more XBH and HR to be successful with his free-swinging ways.

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Oyster Analytics @oysteranalytics.bsky.social · 17/07/2026

At the halfway point, the Rays are the org kings, followed closely by the loaded Brewers organization. The Mets and Red Sox are at the bottom, despite the latter having a crop of strong-hitting prospects. Highly ranked prospects don't always translate to good records!

Bar chart titled "2026 MLB Organizational Records" with the subtitle "Combined MLB + MiLB | as of July 17, 2026." Organizations are ranked from lowest to highest combined winning percentage.

From left to right: New York Mets (249–318), Boston Red Sox (251–303), Oakland Athletics (244–286), Baltimore Orioles (263–300), Minnesota Twins (247–280), Chicago White Sox (252–284), San Diego Padres (272–297), Detroit Tigers (271–295), Philadelphia Phillies (260–279), Kansas City Royals (272–290), Arizona Diamondbacks (277–294), Toronto Blue Jays (279–289), Atlanta Braves (258–267), Miami Marlins (276–284), Cincinnati Reds (280–284), Pittsburgh Pirates (281–285), Houston Astros (278–281), Chicago Cubs (280–278), St. Louis Cardinals (265–260), Los Angeles Angels (271–265), Seattle Mariners (274–266), Cleveland Guardians (288–279), Texas Rangers (290–278), Colorado Rockies (297–273), Washington Nationals (276–253), New York Yankees (299–265), Los Angeles Dodgers (315–251), San Francisco Giants (318–247), Milwaukee Brewers (315–243), and Tampa Bay Rays (319–243), who lead all organizations.

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Oyster Analytics @oysteranalytics.bsky.social · 11/07/2026

Gonzalez is now our 68th ranked guy after finally finding the power necessary to utilize his fantastic lift. Playing time is a challenge with the Sox, and the Bucs infield injuries should give him real run. For a comp pick? We love the deal, even if the star odds aren’t massive!

Jacob Gonzalez’s player card: 63% contributor, 48% regular, 22% star.

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Oyster Analytics @oysteranalytics.bsky.social · 11/07/2026

Oyster dandy Christian Cerda has struggled this season, failing to generate the pop that made him a menace at the lower levels. His contact still looks solid, but as a non EV demon, he needs to get back to pulling the ball to find success, unlike he did here.

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Oyster Analytics @oysteranalytics.bsky.social · 06/07/2026

Both of us (Max and Owen) have spoken together about the Walcott sleep effect. Age for level is so important, and even some seemingly tempered performances are signs of elite-ness when you're playing against players 5 years older than you (on average). We'd rank him 5th too, but the upside is real!

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Oyster Analytics @oysteranalytics.bsky.social · 29/06/2026

JKG hits the bigs! His newfound power has brought him up our rankings, giving us more reason to believe in his high-chase, high-contact profile. If he can keep powering the ball, his good, versatile infield play gives him a utility floor with a shot at more. Congrats!

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Oyster Analytics @oysteranalytics.bsky.social · 29/06/2026

All XBH aren’t created equal! James Tibbs has had it all go right this season in Triple-A, and this double is no exception. The power is pretty easy though!

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Oyster Analytics @oysteranalytics.bsky.social · 25/06/2026

Frias is shooting up our models, a rarity for a player with only Rookie Ball experience (until this week)! He has the Luis Peña-style profile: elite contact with respectable power, traits that play up extremely well. If he tears up Single-A, the top 40 is imminent!

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Oyster Analytics @oysteranalytics.bsky.social · 23/06/2026

Ben Malgeri finally gets a well-deserved promotion! While the model has soured a bit on the aging prospect, he's still producing as a solid contact, versatile outfield option. We spoke about him with @tigersmlreport.bsky.social in the preseason, and we're pumped for his debut!

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Oyster Analytics @oysteranalytics.bsky.social · 17/06/2026

We're excited for Fedko's debut! He's broken out in a big way this season, and despite being an older prospect, he offers well-rounded hitting upside. His slightly improved contact has made the difference this year, and we give him a 25% shot to be an impact player.

Kyler Fedko prospect card for Minnesota Twins outfielder/first baseman Kyler Fedko. Ranked No. 142 overall and No. 9 in the Twins system. Career outcome projections show a 41% chance of becoming a contributor, 24% chance of developing into a regular, and 4% chance of reaching star status. Relative metrics highlight above-average discipline (0.98 SD), home run power (1.13 SD), and lift ability (0.87 SD), with average contact skills and slightly below-average development speed, gap power, and strikeout avoidance. Comparable player: Blake Perkins (2022).

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Oyster Analytics @oysteranalytics.bsky.social · 12/06/2026

We've been huge Blaze Jordan fans for the past two seasons, and his #56 preseason rank seemed a bit absurd at the time. He's been elite in AAA this year, showing off the full potential of his contact + power game (.313/ 11 HR). LA and EV are up, and we're excited for his debut!

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Oyster Analytics @oysteranalytics.bsky.social · 11/06/2026

Rodríguez is an Oyster model darling, as he's young for the level, has both power and contact skills, and has demonstrated improved patience in 2026. There's platoon risk here (vs. LHP), but so few hitters have the boom to complement bat-to-ball. Yesterday's cycle showcases it all!

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Oyster Analytics @oysteranalytics.bsky.social · 09/06/2026

We thought our model was a bit crazy putting Lara as our preseason #31 overall hitting prospect, but he's been elite this season, adding enough power to complement his strong hit tool. As he adds strength, the ceiling could rise further, and his great glove gives a high floor!

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Oyster Analytics @oysteranalytics.bsky.social · 09/06/2026

Despite a decent projection, we are concerned about the low contact rates, coupled with good but not fantastic power for a 23-year-old. He would make big steps forward, though, if he elevated the ball more, as his poor FB% caps his pop. He has a decent OF floor as well!

Player card for Braden Montgomery, a center fielder in the Chicago White Sox organization. Montgomery is ranked as the No. 195 overall prospect and the No. 6 prospect in the White Sox system. The card shows a projected 22% chance of becoming an MLB contributor, 17% chance of reaching regular status, and 10% chance of developing into a star player. Relative tool grades compared to league average highlight strong gap power (+1.24 SD), above-average contact (+0.93), discipline (+0.63), and development speed (+0.60). Home run power rates slightly above average (+0.46), while strikeout avoidance (-0.18) and lift ability (-0.09) grade below average. His closest statistical comparison is Jake Meyers' 2019 season. A confidence meter at the bottom indicates a high level of confidence in the projection.

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Oyster Analytics @oysteranalytics.bsky.social · 06/06/2026

Emerson's high K rate in MLB was as expected, but we didn't foresee his jump in power! He has been elevating well in the bigs, upping his overall power output. He's still vastly outperforming his xwOBA, but this is a welcome change for the typically GB-happy Emerson.

Oyster Analytics prospect card for Seattle Mariners shortstop Colt Emerson. Emerson is ranked as the No. 7 overall prospect and the No. 1 prospect in Seattle's system. The card shows extremely high projected MLB outcomes, with a 99% chance of becoming a contributor, 99% chance of becoming a regular, and 93% chance of reaching star status. Relative skill metrics compared to league average highlight elite developmental speed (+2.2 standard deviations), along with above-average discipline (+0.32), strikeout avoidance (+0.95), contact ability (+0.82), and gap power (+0.69). Home run power grades slightly above average (+0.12), while lift is slightly below average (-0.17). A career outcome chart displays strong probabilities of achieving between 3 and 4+ prime WAR per season, supported by a high confidence meter. The listed player comparison is Daniel Robertson (2015).

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Oyster Analytics @oysteranalytics.bsky.social · 01/06/2026

We were surprised when just-promoted Arroyo cracked our preseason top 30, but he's torn up Triple-A this season! His power is the best it has ever been, his contact rates are stellar, and he's elevating at a high rate. His lone fear is high chase rates, but his contact helps compensate!

Prospect card for Cincinnati Reds shortstop Edwin Arroyo. Arroyo is ranked as the No. 37 overall prospect and the No. 1 prospect in the Reds system. Career outcome projections show an 84% chance of becoming a contributor, 69% chance of becoming a regular, and 49% chance of becoming a star. Relative skill grades versus league average highlight plus developmental speed (+1.46 SD), contact (+1.33), and strikeout avoidance (+0.94), with average gap power (+0.31), modest lift (+0.52), below-average plate discipline (-0.96), and near-average home run power (-0.04). The confidence meter is high, and his statistical comparison is Kevin Newman’s 2017 season.

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Oyster Analytics @oysteranalytics.bsky.social · 28/05/2026

Arias has been Keith Law's guy since day one, and we concur with his aggressive projection! Very few SS show plus power without K issues, but Arias is that guy. As he's gained strength, the power has fully surfaced, and he's shot up our model. A future star!

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Oyster Analytics @oysteranalytics.bsky.social · 25/05/2026

Was away during Ramírez's debut, but better late than never! Ramírez made our preseason top 100 as a young player with elite contact skills, but this year, he's added high-end power to the mix. If there's one under-the-radar 2026 debut that hits it big, we think it's him!

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Oyster Analytics @oysteranalytics.bsky.social · 17/05/2026

Soon to debut, Colt Emerson fits into our top tier of elite prospects! He's had a solid but chase-happy AAA campaign, so K-concerns are real out of the gate, but he's only 20, and he has many years to up his game. Very few SS tease all-around hitting potential, but Emerson's got it!

Prospect card for Colt Emerson, shortstop in the Seattle Mariners system. Emerson is ranked No. 6 overall and No. 1 in Seattle’s farm system. Outcome probabilities show 99% contributor, 99% regular, and 94% star odds. Relative tools versus league average: developing speed (+2.1 SD) stands out as the top trait, with above-average contact (+0.50), gap power (+0.55), home run power (+0.36), and strikeout avoidance (+0.24). Plate discipline is roughly average (+0.01), while lift is below average (-0.48). Career comparison listed as Daniel Robertson, 2014. Confidence meter appears near maximum.

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Oyster Analytics @oysteranalytics.bsky.social · 16/05/2026

Power-packed Payne has been rocketing up our rankings after finally adding the juice that his profile required to justify his whiff. He's still very risky: his contact % and K% aren't great, and he has a lot of walks value, which are common in A and A+. + field and + wheels add value though!

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Oyster Analytics @oysteranalytics.bsky.social · 16/05/2026

We are lower on Culpepper than many others, mostly due to his unexceptional lift and a slightly more advanced age compared to peer prospects. We like younger, more liftier SS like Edwin Arroyo (CIN) more than Culpepper, but we still give the Twin a 16% chance to be a big contributor!

Prospect card for Kaelen Culpepper, shortstop in the Minnesota Twins organization, ranked No. 192 overall and No. 10 in the system. Projection gives him a 28% chance to become an MLB contributor, 16% chance to become a regular, and 2% chance to become a star. Relative offensive traits versus league average show strong developing speed (+0.86), above-average strikeout avoidance (+0.73), contact (+0.52), and home run power (+0.96), with roughly average discipline (-0.07), below-average gap power (-0.50), and slightly below-average lift (-0.37). Career outcome distribution centers around 0–1 WAR seasons, with player comp listed as Willi Castro, 2017.

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Oyster Analytics @oysteranalytics.bsky.social · 14/05/2026

Made is our #1(1) prospect! His maturity at the dish is remarkable, and he has a legit shot to stay at shortstop. He's upped his power and contact rates in AA, even though his overall numbers have cooled. If he can find his lift, he'll resume his domination and surge to AAA!

Prospect card for Jesus Made, shortstop in the Milwaukee Brewers system. Ranked #11 overall and the top Milwaukee Brewers prospect. Model projects a 92% chance of becoming a contributor, 91% chance of becoming a regular, and 85% chance of becoming a star. Relative offensive traits show elite development speed (+2.2 SD), with above-average discipline (+0.21), contact (+0.78), strikeout avoidance (+0.76), and gap power (+0.60), while home run power (-0.44) and lift (-0.60) currently lag. Player comp listed as Royce Lewis, 2018.

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Oyster Analytics @oysteranalytics.bsky.social · 13/05/2026

Another pair of dingers last night from one of the best power/hit combos in the minors! Fitz-Gerald was featured as one of the top players of the week last week, and his newfound power has him at another level. A promotion may be soon to arrive, and the Rangers may have seller's remorse!

Prospect card for Devin Fitzgerald, shortstop in the Washington Nationals system. Ranked No. 46 overall and the No. 1 Washington prospect. Projection model gives him a 68% chance to become an MLB contributor, 66% chance to become a regular, and 32% chance to become a star. Relative tools show above-average speed (1.14), discipline (0.94), contact (1.22), strikeout avoidance (1.31), average gap power (1.00), standout home run power (1.83), and below-average lift (0.20), all measured in standard deviations from league average. Career comparison listed as Corey Seager.

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Oyster Analytics @oysteranalytics.bsky.social · 08/05/2026

Waldschmidt may be our model's lowest relative to mainstream take, but we aren't totally shocked. He's older than some prospects, and he derives a lot of walk value; not ideal at lower levels. He is well-rounded, though, and has shown real upside. Will this take prove foolish?

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Oyster Analytics @oysteranalytics.bsky.social · 07/05/2026

We've come around a bit on Jones, despite negativity on his floor. He's a high-ceiling, low-floor prospect, as demonstrated by his 3/4 chance to non-contribute, but 1/5 regular chance! The power is real, and if the glove is good, he could be a volatile but effective MLBer!

Prospect card for Spencer Jones, center fielder in the Yankees system. Ranked #145 overall and the #3 Yankees prospect by Oyster Analytics. Career outcome projections show a 24% chance to become a Contributor, 20% chance to become a Regular, and 11% chance to become a Star. Relative tools show above-average development speed (+0.44), discipline (+0.22), contact (+0.35), gap power (+0.07), elite home run power (+2.70), and strong lift (+2.10), with below-average strikeout avoidance (-1.67). Prime WAR distribution peaks around 0–1 WAR with smaller upside outcomes reaching 3+ WAR. MLB statistical comp listed as Brett Phillips, 2016.

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Oyster Analytics @oysteranalytics.bsky.social · 06/05/2026

Bonemer is back at it! He had a strong high-HR, high-K week last week, but getting it done against a big-time MLB arm in Gerrit Cole is something else! He keeps trending up.

Caleb Bonemer prospect card from Oyster Baseball, showing the Chicago White Sox shortstop ranked #31 overall and #2 in the White Sox system. Bonemer carries a 64% contributor probability, 62% regular probability, and 59% star probability. Relative offensive traits compared to league average show strong developmental speed (1.32 SD), discipline (0.79), contact ability (0.63), gap power (1.41), plus home run power (about 2.0), and lift ability (1.17), with slightly below-average strikeout avoidance (-0.09). Career outcome distribution is visualized by projected peak WAR outcomes, with a player comp listed as Trevor Story, 2012 version.

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Oyster Analytics @oysteranalytics.bsky.social · 03/05/2026

Angel Genao looks to have added some power this season, but his power numbers are hampered by a very low FB% (16.4%). He already has a great BB and hit tool, but if he can find a decent amount of loft going forward, he may now possess the strength to take advantage!

Prospect card for Angel Genao, SS (CLE). Header lists career outcome probabilities of 52% Contributor, 45% Regular, and 8% Star, with Genao ranked #75 overall and #5 in Cleveland’s system. Left panel shows relative tools measured in standard deviations from league average: Development Speed +1.14, Plate Discipline +0.88, Avoid K +1.11, Contact +0.49, Gap Power +0.17, Home Run Power -0.41, and Lift -0.60. Right panel displays a probability distribution of prime WAR per season, with benchmark lines for Contributor, Regular, and Star outcomes. Confidence meter appears moderately high. Player comparison listed as Joey Ortiz, 2022.

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Oyster Analytics @oysteranalytics.bsky.social · 03/05/2026

It makes sense why the A's are giving the Oyster #1 overall prospect, Leo De Vries, time at third. The A's lack high-level future upside at 3B and 2B, and upping De Vries' versatility is a big step in making his final push to the show easier. The bat certainly won't hold him back!

Prospect player card for Leo De Vries, shortstop in the Athletics organization. Header lists elite projection marks: 99% chance to become a contributor, 99% chance to become a regular, and 97% chance to become a star. The card ranks him as the #1 overall prospect and the #1 Athletics prospect.

Left panel shows relative tools measured in standard deviations from league average: Development Speed +2.59, Discipline +0.35, Avoid Strikeouts +0.39, Contact +0.58, Gap Power +0.42, Home Run Power +0.81, and Lift +0.51. Development speed stands out as the clear carrying tool.

Right panel displays career outcome probabilities across prime WAR per season thresholds, with near-certain odds through contributor, regular, and star benchmarks before tapering at higher WAR levels. Confidence meter at the bottom is in the high-confidence range. Historical comp listed as Yu Chang, 2016.

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Oyster Analytics @oysteranalytics.bsky.social · 29/04/2026

Bonemer's bat has been dominant this season and is one of the premier HR threats in the minors, as shown by his 3 HR Tuesday! His contact numbers aren't elite, but if he can continue his supreme contact quality, it won't matter. He's played mostly 3B this year, and he has to be close to a AA debut!

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Oyster Analytics @oysteranalytics.bsky.social · 28/04/2026

We aren't as high on Bazzana as some, mostly due to his lack of contact in his full 2025 season. This year, he's improved in these areas while keeping up his elite BB rate. His high BABIP (.373) with a 46.4 GB% is a bit of a red flag, but his patience and pop give strong upside!

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Oyster Analytics @oysteranalytics.bsky.social · 25/04/2026

AJ Ewing was a player we recently cited as a high-potential "slap-happy" hitter. His ISO is on the rise, and he's already 2/3 of the way to last season's homer total. With a complete hitting package and elite base-stealing skills, he's another Mets OF to watch!

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