The Orca Fin @orcafin.bsky.social · 3hI am an engineer; I don't talk theory. The shit I built or build works. If it doesn't, people die or lose billions. No time for theory. It works, or it doesn't; otherwise, take a hike. 000
The Orca Fin @orcafin.bsky.social · 11hNow, you have seen me take $SMCI to the cleaners (May 2024) and expose the smuggling of $NVDA GPUs (Jan 2025). Have I taken any other companies to the cleaners over the last two years for shenanigans or sleight-of-hand accounting? Yes. $TSCO $WING $AXON $CAVA $DUOL 000
The Orca Fin @orcafin.bsky.social · 14h4/4 Now the question remains: how much did $NVDA know, and who at NVDA knew? Plus, this is just one instance; there are others. What was happening was not some small-scale operation. 000
The Orca Fin @orcafin.bsky.social · 14h3/4 Scroll down to the $NVDA section of this article. It has a recording of text messages with a vendor in China who was willing to ship servers with NVDA GPUs to NY. See for yourself; it is quite juicy. Published in January 2025. orcafin.beehiiv.com/p/precious-m...orcafin.beehiiv.comPrecious Metals Streaming. DeepSeek Implications.A look at Wheaton Precious Metals and legal implications of DeepSeek. 100
The Orca Fin @orcafin.bsky.social · 14h2/4 Here is the article written in May 2024 exposing shenanigans at $SMCI. orcafin.beehiiv.com/p/smci-an-in...orcafin.beehiiv.comSMCI - An Intriguing StoryRevelations from SMCI's financial reports. 100
The Orca Fin @orcafin.bsky.social · 14hCongratulations to all who were highlighting the smuggling of $NVDA chips into China in 2024 and early 2025. I highlighted that $SMCI was up to no good in May 2024, and I had proof in January 2025 that the stuff had indeed made it to China. No recognition, but sweet validation. 1/4 100
The Orca Fin @orcafin.bsky.social · 15hA lot of countries are now figuring out that Kissinger was not joking when he said this: "It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger, Former Secretary of State (1973-1977) 000
The Orca Fin @orcafin.bsky.social · 19h1. US-to-China oil tanker shipping cost = $80 million 2. Cost to launch a SpaceX Falcon 9 = $74 million 3. Cost to buy the same tanker outright last year <= $80 million 000
The Orca Fin @orcafin.bsky.social · 20hIt is not the amount; it is the geopolitical implications. Yes, the amount of diesel is inconsequential, but Ukraine just got cooked, literally. 010
The Orca Fin @orcafin.bsky.social · 20hNow Ukraine can't bomb Russian refineries; that would piss off Trump. The EuroPoors are having, if not a heart attack, a brain hemorrhage for sure. 000
The Orca Fin @orcafin.bsky.social · 09/10/2026Since we have gone there, calling AI "SI", can we also do the following? - Artificial Flavoring = Super Flavoring - Artificial Limb = Super Limb - Artificial Selection = Super Slection - Artificial Insemination = Super Insemination -Artificial Turf = Super Turf 000
The Orca Fin @orcafin.bsky.social · 09/10/2026"What's in a name? That which we call a rose / By any other name would smell as sweet." - Shakespeare 020
The Orca Fin @orcafin.bsky.social · 09/10/2026Stage 1: Earnings Quality deteriorates; multiples compress. Stage 2: Frontier Labs' revenues disappoint, and growth slows down. <- We are here. Final Stage: Money spigot turns off. When? High probability by the end of 2027. By then, it will be too late for a lot of investors. 100
The Orca Fin @orcafin.bsky.social · 08/10/2026Now, do you understand why I didn't include semis? :) 000
The Orca Fin @orcafin.bsky.social · 08/10/2026For full details -> orcafin.beehiiv.com/p/ai-impact-...orcafin.beehiiv.comAI Impact - IT ConsultingAI 000
The Orca Fin @orcafin.bsky.social · 08/10/2026Here is what I wrote on my blog in the middle of June. 🔗to the full article in reply. Time to take a bow, I guess. :) 100
The Orca Fin @orcafin.bsky.social · 08/10/2026OpenAI Revenue 🔻=> Lower CAPEX expectations => Lower Yields => outside of semis 🔼, semis 🔻🔻🔻, and Russell rebounds. 000
The Orca Fin @orcafin.bsky.social · 08/10/2026"OpenAI annualised revenues $20 billion less than previously signaled" - FT Awesome... 000
The Orca Fin @orcafin.bsky.social · 08/10/2026Note: My Premium (paid) Subscribers had the majority of these names months ago, mostly in June. 000
The Orca Fin @orcafin.bsky.social · 08/10/2026Since this was a free article, here are the 13 names on the list: ANET, DELL, PANW, NET, DDOG, SNOW, PLTR, ACN, NOW, ECL, XYL, PWR, MRSH Oh, Goldman upgraded PLTR. PLTR crossed 200 ... awesome 200
The Orca Fin @orcafin.bsky.social · 08/10/2026Wingstop still needs to get better with its ads. The recent ones are not as bad as the "doorbell" ad from 2024, but still. 000
The Orca Fin @orcafin.bsky.social · 07/10/2026San Francisco passes a data center moratorium in the hometown of AI. Now this is another level of NIMBYism. 000
The Orca Fin @orcafin.bsky.social · 07/10/2026Vitol's CEO was on point. Supertanker chartered from Gulf Coast to China for $76 million, 10 times higher than pre-war level: BBG 000
The Orca Fin @orcafin.bsky.social · 07/10/2026Rising yields hit stocks of heavy equipment makers. Heavy equipment is generally bought on credit. Higher long yields eventually squeeze credit-driven demand and dealer rental fleets. $CAT $DE $PCAR $GEV $XLI 000
The Orca Fin @orcafin.bsky.social · 07/10/2026"We started this conflict with a crude crisis. Then it turned into a product crisis. Now we have more crude oil coming out of the Middle East, but it is turning into a shipping crisis... the price for chartering a tanker has become pretty parabolic” - Vitol CEO Got tanker stocks? 000
The Orca Fin @orcafin.bsky.social · 07/10/2026"Goldman Sachs Research pushed back its forecast for a second hike in 2026 to December, and our economists now see a strong chance that the FOMC will ultimately conclude that additional rate hikes are unnecessary." - From Goldman Sachs Briefings 000
The Orca Fin @orcafin.bsky.social · 07/10/2026𝐸̶𝑓̶𝑓̶𝑖̶𝑐̶𝑖̶𝑒̶𝑛̶𝑡̶ ̶𝑀̶𝑎̶𝑟̶𝑘̶𝑒̶𝑡̶ ̶𝐻̶𝑦̶𝑝̶𝑜̶𝑡̶ℎ̶𝑒̶𝑠̶𝑖̶𝑠̶ Reflexivity 000
The Orca Fin @orcafin.bsky.social · 06/10/2026Since we have gone there, calling AI "SI", can we also do the following? - Artificial Flavoring = Super Flavoring - Artificial Limb = Super Limb - Artificial Selection = Super Slection - Artificial Insemination = Super Insemination - Artificial Turf = Super Turf 000
The Orca Fin @orcafin.bsky.social · 06/10/2026AI in its current state is better for improving/enhancing ops (somewhat) rather than for customer-facing use cases (broadly). Chick-fil-A has made the right decision. 000
The Orca Fin @orcafin.bsky.social · 06/10/2026Isn't adjusting prices based on aggregate signals such as time of day, inventory, or seasonal demand lawful and used by airlines, hotels, ride-hailing, etc.? Dynamic pricing is illegal if private personal data is used. Don't see anything wrong with what $MCD is doing. 000
The Orca Fin @orcafin.bsky.social · 06/10/2026Russia, a long-term friend of India, seems to be on board and agreeable to the Indian proposal. Putin made positive comments about it recently. 000
The Orca Fin @orcafin.bsky.social · 06/10/2026India, a neutral party, has become active in ending the Russia-Ukraine war. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha has said India’s proposal is the broadest. Kyiv is ready for a ceasefire provided it covers not only combat operations but also strikes on energy infrastructure and in the Black Sea. 100
The Orca Fin @orcafin.bsky.social · 06/10/2026There is a fine line between being rational and being a doomer. The GFC spawned a lot of doomers whose inherent fear, stemming from recency bias, was further fueled by leading doomer voices from the GFC period. We should have had a lot more millionaires and billionaires. 000
The Orca Fin @orcafin.bsky.social · 05/10/2026Hey, new business opportunity. Rehab centers for AI addicts. 000
The Orca Fin @orcafin.bsky.social · 04/10/2026We are now firmly in the era of "Balance-Sheet-as-a-Service" (BSaaS). It sure seems to require a lot of BS. 000
The Orca Fin @orcafin.bsky.social · 03/10/2026In 2002, the DOJ targeted the international cartel of DRAM companies for price-fixing between 1998 and 2002. This led to criminal guilty pleas, federal prison sentences for executives, $730 million in criminal fines, and $310 million in civil penalties. History may not repeat, but it sure can rhyme 020
The Orca Fin @orcafin.bsky.social · 02/10/2026Since Nov last year (Q3 FY '26), NVDA started reporting revenue based on customers' HQ, and not based on billing location. This shifted reported revenue to the US and Taiwan, away from Singapore and SEA. The majority of Taiwan revenue supports US and EU customers supposedly. 000
The Orca Fin @orcafin.bsky.social · 02/10/2026$STX fell 11%, and $WDC dropped 7%, after Nikkei reported that Toshiba plans to significantly expand its hard disk drive production capacity to meet growing demand from AI data centers. Competition strikes; a feature of capitalism, no? Next up: memory players. 000
The Orca Fin @orcafin.bsky.social · 02/10/2026Time for the SEC to get busy. The Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002 was passed to ensure the shenanigans of the dot-com bubble were not repeated, especially sale-leaseback transaction-related sleight of hand. 001
The Orca Fin @orcafin.bsky.social · 02/10/2026EU discussed the release of 50 million barrels of crude and 50 million barrels of diesel, according to sources. No official confirmation yet. Brent is down 3.9%. European gasoil futures, a benchmark for diesel prices, fell more than 5% to $1,377 per metric ton. 000
The Orca Fin @orcafin.bsky.social · 02/10/2026At least I agree 100% with the cybersecurity part of this headline from Fortune. Can't speak about the rest, as I haven't met Dario. 000
The Orca Fin @orcafin.bsky.social · 02/10/2026Good ... But isn't NVDA now too big to fail? If the stock crashes, then something will probably happen. Isn't that always the case? By the time anything happens on the law enforcement front, it is already too late for investors. 000
The Orca Fin @orcafin.bsky.social · 02/10/2026The DOJ is finally doing something about GPU smuggling that was widely prevalent in 2023 and 2024. A simple search on various marketplaces showed GPUs available in China. There was a glut by the end of 2024, and Chinese suppliers were ready to ship to the US. Yes, I have proof. 000
The Orca Fin @orcafin.bsky.social · 01/10/2026While $NKE has quite a way to go before it is able to fix its operational missteps, it has a product problem and marketing misalignment. The message they convey should resonate when a customer picks up a shoe, and the company internally needs to rally behind it. Marketing 101. 000
The Orca Fin @orcafin.bsky.social · 01/10/2026Things might not be going well in India. Pepsi dropped prices; now Apple TV has dropped its monthly subscription fee by 25%. $INDA 000
The Orca Fin @orcafin.bsky.social · 01/10/2026"FTC is investigating OpenAI and Anthropic over possible risks to consumers" - AP About time. 000
The Orca Fin @orcafin.bsky.social · 01/10/2026$MU == "Micron tops Q4 estimates on top and bottom lines, offers strong Q1 outlook" When a stonk doesn't jump on such a headline, you know what to do. 000
