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The Orca Fin

@orcafin.bsky.social
138 followers 16 following 1.1K posts

A good message will always find a messenger. Focus on the message, not the messenger. orcafin.beehiiv.com

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The Orca Fin @orcafin.bsky.social · 2m
IMF enforces strict privatization and requires developing nations to reduce corporate equity ownership; however, it has remained silent on the US taking equity ownership under Trump. Maybe because the US holds 17% voting power, effectively veto power, as major policy changes require an 85% vote.
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The Orca Fin @orcafin.bsky.social · 59m
While $NKE has quite a way to go before it is able to fix its operational missteps, it has a product problem and marketing misalignment. The message they convey should resonate when a customer picks up a shoe, and the company internally needs to rally behind it. Marketing 101.
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The Orca Fin @orcafin.bsky.social · 13h
Things might not be going well in India. Pepsi dropped prices; now Apple TV has dropped its monthly subscription fee by 25%. $INDA
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The Orca Fin @orcafin.bsky.social · 14h
"FTC is investigating OpenAI and Anthropic over possible risks to consumers" - AP About time.
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The Orca Fin @orcafin.bsky.social · 14h
Here is what Gemini has to say about Orca Fin LLC.
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The Orca Fin @orcafin.bsky.social · 21h
$MU == "Micron tops Q4 estimates on top and bottom lines, offers strong Q1 outlook" When a stonk doesn't jump on such a headline, you know what to do.
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The Orca Fin @orcafin.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
Never mistake humility for weakness.
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The Orca Fin @orcafin.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
Stolen Intelligence.
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The Orca Fin @orcafin.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
Almost time for oil to go parabolic. Give it a few months, I guess. Oh, impeachment hearings in 2027 are gonna be fun. This place will be lit.:)
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The Orca Fin @orcafin.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
Awesome ... you know what to do.
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The Orca Fin @orcafin.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
The biggest difference between the Internet Bubble and the AI Bubble? The Internet was loved universally.
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The Orca Fin @orcafin.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
MongoDB is for retarded lazy programmers. Now their CEO is gonna lead the next retarded shit that META is gonna release. Have fun with Cuckerburg.
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The Orca Fin @orcafin.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
I was much more milder than this on my blog last week. But yeah ...
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The Orca Fin @orcafin.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
It is very hard to get my vote of confidence. Mistral got it. Take it for what it is worth.
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The Orca Fin @orcafin.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
There is something called the President's Working Group on Financial Markets. It is simple: never fuck around with the President. On March 6, 2009, Obama said, "Buy stonks." SP500 bottomed at 666. Quite an interesting number. Check history. Never bet against the President.
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The Orca Fin @orcafin.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
Even though we are well aware of the circle of life and its realities, we do get affected by events that are but natural to occur. Getting emotional even when faced with the reality of how it is makes us human, I guess. Still so much to learn.
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The Orca Fin @orcafin.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
A friend said: Why do you even bother with the blog? You don't need the money. You don't need to work. I do it because: 1. It keeps me busy. How much golf am I gonna play? 2. I get to share my knowledge. 3. It has made me a better investor.
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The Orca Fin @orcafin.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
OK... The tech industry must have fallen off a cliff and become totally incompetent. If NVDA needs to release shit like this, we should be concerned. WTF is going on?
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The Orca Fin @orcafin.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
Wife said: Why only give a shout-out to guys? Fair enough... I love this song by Natalie Marchant. www.youtube.com/watch?v=6zpY...
youtube.com
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The Orca Fin @orcafin.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
Microservices inflate your cloud bill. Your tech staff didn't tell you that? Why would they? They are more concerned about their resume and having the "in thing" on it, not about what it costs you and the tech debt they are leaving you with. Thank you. I just saved you boatloads.
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The Orca Fin @orcafin.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
1. Flip-flops. If your size is 12, buy 10 or 11 depending on whether it fits tight. 2. Slip-on sneakers. If 12, buy 11. 3. Jeans. If 32 (yeah, still 32, but the six-pack is gone; need to get it back), buy 30. I am surprised how many people don't know this.
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The Orca Fin @orcafin.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
I really dislike people who become paying subscribers to my blog for a month, read all the old paywalled posts (after all, I have a long-term view), and then unsubscribe. Thank you for paying for a month, but come on, man. Anyway, thanks for paying and making boatloads.
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The Orca Fin @orcafin.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
Opened iTunes after a long while. Music heals and solves. Anyways. Foo Fighters and The Goo Goo Dolls are cool.:)
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The Orca Fin @orcafin.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
It takes time. I will get them. AVGO NVDA
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The Orca Fin @orcafin.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
🖕 www.youtube.com/watch?v=tAGn...
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The Orca Fin @orcafin.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Goodbye ... www.youtube.com/watch?v=oofS...
youtube.com
James Blunt - You're Beautiful (Official Music Video) [4K]
YouTube video by James Blunt
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The Orca Fin @orcafin.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
You're the closest to Heaven that I'll ever be And I don't wanna go home right now www.youtube.com/watch?v=NdYW...
youtube.com
Goo Goo Dolls – Iris [Official Music Video] [4K Remaster]
YouTube video by Goo Goo Dolls
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The Orca Fin @orcafin.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Talk to your grandma for further questions. www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lo2q...
youtube.com
AC/DC - You Shook Me All Night Long (Official 4K Video)
YouTube video by acdcVEVO
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The Orca Fin @orcafin.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
How retarded do you feel for using or promoting MongoDB? What was it? A decade to realize you are a retard?
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The Orca Fin @orcafin.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Grandpa is listening to Metallica and Van Halen. That is the FAFO cue.
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The Orca Fin @orcafin.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Gold often drops initially on inflation fears due to the expectation of aggressive interest rate hikes by central banks, but it typically rebounds as persistent inflation cements its role as a long-term store of value. Let's play ball.
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The Orca Fin @orcafin.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Agentic SaaS will eventually move to Per-Task/Value Pricing Model. You pay based on the volume of work completed. (e.g., $1 per resolved customer ticket). Those still thinking in terms of Per-Seat pricing or per-token pricing will be left behind.
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The Orca Fin @orcafin.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Investors -> WOW, $NVDA Forward P/E is 19. Me -> NVDA's Cash from Operations has been less than Net Income for the last five quarters. RED FLAG!!! The market assigning a low forward P/E to NVDA despite all the great prospects should tell one what the market thinks about NVDA.
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The Orca Fin @orcafin.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
OpenAI hacking thousands of sites, including government ones, is total amateur hour all around. 1. OpenAI needs to hire competent infrastructure and network engineers. 2. Those getting hacked need to get their own act together.
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The Orca Fin @orcafin.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
Psst: Get out of $PEP. Based on ground checks in Asia, retailers are getting rid of Lay's. ~75% price increases. Not scientific market research, but this is what I am hearing anecdotally. Nobody buying those chips ... Lay's is ...
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The Orca Fin @orcafin.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
It is disingenuous to write thematic articles and dump a basket of 100 names on readers. That would be laziness and incompetence. For the first time in two years, here is a portfolio of 13 stocks that are long-term AI beneficiaries. No semis or hyperscalers. orcafin.beehiiv.com/p/ai-portfolio
orcafin.beehiiv.com
AI Portfolio
A long term model portfolio.
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The Orca Fin @orcafin.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
Adding fuel to the fire: China to buy 10 million tons of US coal in 2027 and 2028. $ARLP
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The Orca Fin @orcafin.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
Meta bolsters Muse safety warning after security vulnerability found - The Information Well... if you gave $META any personal info, it's your fault. It is META, after all. Never trusted Zuckerberg; never will, ever!!!
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The Orca Fin @orcafin.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
From Goldman Sachs Briefings: - The AI investment boom is driving nearly half of S&P 500 EPS growth this year, but its contribution will fade going forward. - AI investment is expected to transition from a tailwind for US stock earnings this year to a marginal drag in 2028.
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The Orca Fin @orcafin.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
Another one I warned about last year. $POOL Used to be a Buffett stonk. From 308 to 164 ... Awesome ... Capital preservation is important, if not more important than generating returns. No raw material, no returns.
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The Orca Fin @orcafin.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
$AMD Q2 - ($ millions) 1. Net Income: 2,305 2. Accounts Payable: 2,274 3. Cash from Operations (CFO): 2,366 4. Days Payables Outstanding went from 51 in Q1 to 80 in Q2. All CFO came from delayed payments. Cash Flow Statements in the AI space are getting fugly. Stress building!
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The Orca Fin @orcafin.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
Buffett: The US dollar is 'going to hell.' Well, so is every other currency. The USD remains the one-eyed man in the land of the blind, making it the king.
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The Orca Fin @orcafin.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
Oracle issuing a Force Majeure on the New Mexico Data Center reminds me of: Even the most powerful technology on earth still has to pass through the boring disciplines of cost curves, physical limits, regulatory oversight, politics, and marginal returns.
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The Orca Fin @orcafin.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
Across the AI space: 1. Days Sales Outstanding is ballooning. 2. Accounts Receivable is increasing at 3x the rate of sales growth. 3. Leverage is increasing at an alarming pace. => Quality of Earnings is deteriorating => Multiple compression is now a feature rather than a bug.
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The Orca Fin @orcafin.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
Muse is SaaS with AI features.
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The Orca Fin @orcafin.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
If your currency depreciates perennially against the dollar, gold is an awesome investment. Even if gold had remained flat over the past 25 years, you would still be up or have protected your buying power. Hence, gold remains the best hedge against currency depreciation.
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The Orca Fin @orcafin.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
I don't warn about a company lightly. It is a very serious matter. When I warned about $TSCO last year, it was trading at 55. The trade was to avoid TSCO. Attached below is the email I sent to the board of TSCO in March 2025.
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The Orca Fin @orcafin.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
If the diesel export ban is enacted, short $MPC and $VLO with impunity. Short-term diesel prices will fall, but long-term, gasoline and diesel prices will skyrocket. As demand destruction sets in, these two companies will be basically kaput. Trump is playing with fire here.
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The Orca Fin @orcafin.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
What happens to the AI trade if there is a nationwide moratorium, like Texas's, to review the grid? Any engineer worth his salt would have told you the grid needs upgrading to handle so much demand. How much time will it take to scale up? 🍿
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The Orca Fin @orcafin.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
Texas has halted all new permits for AI data centers while it audits the electric grid. I learnt very early in my career to lay out the facts once. Let the idiots who don't listen fuck up, then come in and make $$$ by fixing the mess they created by not listening.
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