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Breathin' Orange Fire @orangefire.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

orangefire.substack.com/p/what-type-...

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Breathin' Orange Fire @orangefire.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

orangefire.substack.com/p/the-pitchi...

The Pitching Was Bad in the Wild Card Series, Just Like It Was All Season
The Wild Card Series showed both the lack of depth in the pitching staff and the fact that the team’s best pitchers are not stars. The result was lots of runs allowed.

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Breathin' Orange Fire @orangefire.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

orangefire.substack.com/p/youre-tell...

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Breathin' Orange Fire @orangefire.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

From Tags yesterday. A definite maybe.

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Breathin' Orange Fire @orangefire.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

Yordan led MLB in BA, OBP, & SLG. Here's a list of everyone who has done that in MLB history. It's a list of the best hitters in the history of the game.

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Breathin' Orange Fire @orangefire.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

orangefire.substack.com/p/the-al-wes...

The AL West Title: Six Guys Stood Out and Pushed the Astros to a Division Crown
The Astros won the AL West thanks to a poor year from the rest of the division, and a small number of high quality players.

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Breathin' Orange Fire @orangefire.bsky.social · 27/09/2026

I'm very happy tge Astros won the AL West. But this is not a season I want to make sure to memorialze.

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Breathin' Orange Fire @orangefire.bsky.social · 27/09/2026

They're going to win the division by default.

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Breathin' Orange Fire @orangefire.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

orangefire.substack.com/p/half-empty...

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Breathin' Orange Fire @orangefire.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

Going to win the division by default.

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Breathin' Orange Fire @orangefire.bsky.social · 18/09/2026

orangefire.substack.com/p/a-love-sto...

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Breathin' Orange Fire @orangefire.bsky.social · 18/09/2026

Trevor Story starts another double play. This one ends the game. Red Sox win.

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Breathin' Orange Fire @orangefire.bsky.social · 15/09/2026

orangefire.substack.com/p/a-twotrack...

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Breathin' Orange Fire @orangefire.bsky.social · 04/09/2026

orangefire.substack.com/p/the-parado...

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Breathin' Orange Fire @orangefire.bsky.social · 31/08/2026

The Astros were down to a 43% chance of making the playoffs after the 3-6 homestands. The winning week in NY (and the poor weeks for TEX and SEA) have pushed it up to 67%. 25 games left. 2 games (plus tiebreaker) up on the AL West. Just win baby.

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Breathin' Orange Fire @orangefire.bsky.social · 25/08/2026

orangefire.substack.com/p/dana-brown...

Dana Brown is Gone. Jim Crane Remains.
Today, Dana Brown was fired. But Jim Crane has made the most important baseball decisions for this franchise since at least 2022. There is every reason to believe that will continue.

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Breathin' Orange Fire @orangefire.bsky.social · 24/08/2026

At one level, Crane seems to have potential candidates. On the other, why would any owner consider Bagwell for GM. He's not qualified.

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Breathin' Orange Fire @orangefire.bsky.social · 23/08/2026

Particularly struck by this paragraph, which crystalizes something I've been thinking about while watching the Astros slump in August. Though stated more eloquently than I would have said it.

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Breathin' Orange Fire @orangefire.bsky.social · 22/08/2026

orangefire.substack.com/p/cam-smiths...

Cam Smith’s 2026 Looks Basically The Same as His 2025
Smith has a similar OPS in 2026 as he did in 2025. The good news is that he is slugging better this season--barreling the ball more. It has led to an increase in homers and slugging percentage.

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Breathin' Orange Fire @orangefire.bsky.social · 15/08/2026

From my baseball nerd Slack Channel.

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Breathin' Orange Fire @orangefire.bsky.social · 15/08/2026

The good news is that Lambert wasn't actually hit that hard. The only high expected BA ball was one that fell in. The bad news. Not enough swing-and-miss. You leave yourself vulnerable to BABIP luck.

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Breathin' Orange Fire @orangefire.bsky.social · 14/08/2026

The Ms collapse is why the Astros are leading the AL West...by default.

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Breathin' Orange Fire @orangefire.bsky.social · 14/08/2026

A preview of what's coming at OrangeFire.Substack.com

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Breathin' Orange Fire @orangefire.bsky.social · 12/08/2026

But enough about the camp battle for QB. Tell me about the election results.

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Breathin' Orange Fire @orangefire.bsky.social · 11/08/2026

It is a small sample, but Varsho's metrics as an Astro look basically like they did with Toronto. The biggest difference is in BABIP. Balls are not finding holes. He is actually hitting the ball harder in Houston. That leads to a clear conclusion: the low BA is bad luck.

Daulton Varsho's advanced batting stats from Baseball Reference.

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Breathin' Orange Fire @orangefire.bsky.social · 10/08/2026

Journalists' inability to have any object permanence is not just limited to political coverage. We'll see tons of it in coverage of the MLB lockout. This, from the @newyorker.com just insults my intelligence.

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Breathin' Orange Fire @orangefire.bsky.social · 05/08/2026

As of Sunday, but he's definitely still leading all of these categories.

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Breathin' Orange Fire @orangefire.bsky.social · 04/08/2026

And yet, the FO seems to think Arrighetti is excess this season, and possibly in future seasons.

At the heart of this trade seems to be an evaluation by the front office that Arrighetti is not one of the five best starting pitchers on this team right now. With Javier, Wesneski, and Blanco back from the IL, the coaching staff and front office determined they were better options than Arrighetti. Arrighetti seemed ticketed for Sugar Land when he returned from the IL. As such, he was deemed expendable for 2026.

The question about Arrighetti is about his value for 2027, 2028, and 2029. Again, the front office seems to have evaluated some of their prospects above Arrighetti for the future. Bryce Meyer who was promoted to Sugar Land yesterday seems to be at the top of that list, followed by Ethan Pecko, who has been a Space Cowboy all season.

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Breathin' Orange Fire @orangefire.bsky.social · 04/08/2026

My concerns about Daulton Varsho. His sprint speed has declined significantly this year, and with his, his ability to get a jump on the ball in the outfield.

As the charts below show, Varsho has traditionally had sprint speeds over 28 feet per second. That usually placed him in the 80th percentile of major leaguers. This season, his sprint speed has declined to 27.3 feel per second; that’s the 49th percentile.

Varsho’s decline in sprint speed has produced a decline in his “jump” in the outfield. Statcast uses Jump to measure how much ground an outfielder covers in the first three seconds after a ball is hit compared to the average player. Varsho would cover 2 to 3 feet more than the average outfielder throughout most of his career, top 10 percentile in the majors for every season from 2022 through 2025. This season, Varsho is only covering 0.6 feet per second more than the average outfielder.

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Breathin' Orange Fire @orangefire.bsky.social · 04/08/2026

I disagree for 2 reasons: 1. Vikings are in this year. 2. Zubaz should be.

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Breathin' Orange Fire @orangefire.bsky.social · 03/08/2026

Varsho Sprint Speed. Steady (and fast) through last season. And then...

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Breathin' Orange Fire @orangefire.bsky.social · 01/08/2026

I have no idea why Crane would do this. Stop meddling, Jim.

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Breathin' Orange Fire @orangefire.bsky.social · 31/07/2026

The Astros win streak has pushed them up to 39% playoff odds according to Fangraphs, up from 13% on July 18 (after the sweep by the Os). The conclusion: winning games is good. Astros are at 40% playoff odds in Pecota (Baseball Reference). Most optimistic odds: 51% by Clay Davenport.

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