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Ollie Clark

@oc-econ.bsky.social
30 followers 50 following 29 posts

Macro, Modelling, Morecambe. All views my own.

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Ollie Clark @oc-econ.bsky.social · 21/03/2026
Nope, it’s Megazone on Morecambe prom
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Ollie Clark @oc-econ.bsky.social · 04/12/2025
The listening age must be share-bait. It seems almost purposefully bad to drive engagement. Sure a few of my songs are from the late 60s, but I don’t know any 76yo listening to Air On My G-String by Bassvicitm.
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Ollie Clark @oc-econ.bsky.social · 11/07/2025
Highly recommend his latest if you haven't read already www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/...
bankofengland.co.uk
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Ollie Clark @oc-econ.bsky.social · 11/07/2025
Taylor has official become my favourite BOE speech writer. Lovely mix of theory, history and practical policymaking. Made for the job.
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Ollie Clark @oc-econ.bsky.social · 28/04/2025
You can also see similar sized drops in arrivals to Canada
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Ollie Clark @oc-econ.bsky.social · 28/04/2025
I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, yoy travel is useless because of the shift in Easter timing. See how the major effect is in Easter celebrating regions?? While I believe there will be SOME effect on travel, not this much this quickly
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Ollie Clark @oc-econ.bsky.social · 18/04/2025
“He's trying to create a narrative and set of common reference points that transform issues associated with complex systems into digestible ones with easy solutions. To give him his credit, that's his greatest talent.” Useful framing for the world.
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Ollie Clark @oc-econ.bsky.social · 15/04/2025
open.substack.com/pub/ocecon/p... spe.org.uk/reading-room...
open.substack.com
Book Review: The Paradox of Debt by Richard Vague
Vague's book explores how debt fuels growth, inequality and crisis—insightful, if imperfect.
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Ollie Clark @oc-econ.bsky.social · 15/04/2025
I recently reviewed The Paradox of Debt by Richard Vague for the Society of Professional Economists. Check it out at the links below ⤵️
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Ollie Clark @oc-econ.bsky.social · 13/04/2025
Yep I saw and agree there is an underlying issue. Just not as much as suggested by the yoy charts in the latest data
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Ollie Clark @oc-econ.bsky.social · 12/04/2025
right. But this is looking at the change in behaviour since last year.
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Ollie Clark @oc-econ.bsky.social · 12/04/2025
The trend for Canada look pretty similar suggesting a good chunk is due to Easter. You could argue spillover of Trump on to Canada but, equally, you'd expect some tourists cancelling US trips to rebook in Canada. We'll have to wait for April data to get the full picture.
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Ollie Clark @oc-econ.bsky.social · 12/04/2025
While the trend is clear, I find it hard to look past the shift in Easter for those yoy charts. Shouldn’t we compare to other similar destinations? What’s the yoy change of Europeans to Canada?
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Reposted by Ollie Clark
Toby Nangle @tobyn.bsky.social · 28/03/2025
If the past is a guide to the future (it's not), what's the chance that UK fiscal headroom will be eaten ahead of the Oct Budget *entirely* by rising gilt yields? @ruthcurtice.bsky.social has the chart. www.resolutionfoundation.org/comment/unsu...
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Ollie Clark @oc-econ.bsky.social · 14/03/2025
guy on train eating twix like a chicken wing
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Ollie Clark @oc-econ.bsky.social · 14/02/2025
www.forkingpaths.co/p/the-false-...
forkingpaths.co
The False Gospel of Stuff and Status
We have become disciples of a flawed creed. To chase passion and value people is a much wiser way to live; or Ikigai, Detectorists, and the real meaning of life.
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Ollie Clark @oc-econ.bsky.social · 14/02/2025
Glad to have palate cleansers like this pass through the incessant information flow
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Ollie Clark @oc-econ.bsky.social · 09/02/2025
Doesn’t sound too different from the recent cohorts tbh - mostly house shares with mates in zones 2 and 3. It’s the new apprentices that are getting the rawest deal! Pretty much no option but to live at home.
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Reposted by Ollie Clark
FT Alphaville @alphaville.ft.com · 30/01/2025
Morning. on.ft.com/3PWkGZ6
on.ft.com
FTAV’s further reading
[FREE TO READ] The Fartcoin stage; Marge Simpsonomics; Tulsi; old glowing anuses in Florida
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Ollie Clark @oc-econ.bsky.social · 24/01/2025
Why’s Trump started reading like he can’t see full stops? Feel like they need to sort out the autocue formatting. Bro’s gonna pass out.
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Ollie Clark @oc-econ.bsky.social · 17/01/2025
come again?
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Ollie Clark @oc-econ.bsky.social · 16/01/2025
Despite a Q4 fall in default rates on unsecured lending, which includes credit cards, banks expect a jump in Q1. They're recent forecast performance has been great though
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Ollie Clark @oc-econ.bsky.social · 16/01/2025
UK banks have reported increase demand for mortgages and willingness to supply them in Q4 2024. But demand is expected to decrease in Q1, and that's before the recent increases in mortgage rates
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Ollie Clark @oc-econ.bsky.social · 15/01/2025
Taylor's key moments: 🤺 - "it’s time to get interest rates back toward normal to sustain a soft landing" - "in my view the [growth] risks are now more skewed to the downside" - "it makes sense to cut rates pre-emptively to take out a little insurance against this change in the balance of risks"
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Ollie Clark @oc-econ.bsky.social · 15/01/2025
Alan Taylor’s first speech seems to paint him as a strong dove. Given he replaces the hawk-leaning Haskel, it could mark a sizeable shift in the MPC’s direction. But hard to say if it has been hammed up to help bring yields back down. If so, beware.
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Ollie Clark @oc-econ.bsky.social · 12/01/2025
Check it out here: ocecon.substack.com/p/marge-simp... #economics #macro #econ
open.substack.com
Inbox | Substack
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Ollie Clark @oc-econ.bsky.social · 12/01/2025
In my new Substack I use Marge's purchase of a hot pink suit to explore: 👉 What does history tell us about buying GDP growth? 👉 Are purchases of some goods "better for the economy" than others? 👉 Can we develop a framework to help economists understand the growth impacts of spending patterns?
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Ollie Clark @oc-econ.bsky.social · 30/12/2024
Great read. Have a feeling I'll be revisiting this a few times in 2025.
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Ollie Clark @oc-econ.bsky.social · 26/12/2024
No mention of neutrality in this paper which suggests "[r]educing military funding would be a grave error" because it provides lower borrowing costs...
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Ollie Clark @oc-econ.bsky.social · 24/12/2024
Seems like Europe is the unmentioned Goldilocks zone for now.
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Ollie Clark @oc-econ.bsky.social · 12/12/2024
Shocks, Crises & False Alarms is a rare economics book: practical, clear, and full of insights for businesses navigating uncertainty. Not just about models, it’s about understanding drivers and risks—and the power of storytelling. My full review on Goodreads. www.goodreads.com/review/show/...
goodreads.com
Ollie Clark's review of Shocks, Crises, and False Alarms
4/5: SC&FA is written by a rare breed of economist: one who can communicate their ideas. As an economist, the book wasn't really written for me, but I still took a lot from it. The opening chapters e...
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