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Neil O'Brian @obrian.bsky.social · 09/09/2025

This is interesting. Why the proportional increase in PAC spending in early 2010s? Citizens United?

Neil O'Brian @obrian.bsky.social · 06/07/2025

Some # of people on Medicaid don't know they are on Medicaid (www.pbs.org/newshour/hea...). Whether there is a partisan tilt to that, IDK. But a 2025 survey shows that just 4% of Rs say they are on Medicaid, which is less than Ds and Is. This could also be due to social desirability in polling, etc.

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Neil O'Brian @obrian.bsky.social · 24/06/2025

Another year of marriage in the books. And what a year it has been! Looking forward to many more :)

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Neil O'Brian @obrian.bsky.social · 16/06/2025

Nothing beats Oregon on a sunny day. (Clementine checking out South Sister on the left; Broken Top on the right.)

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Neil O'Brian @obrian.bsky.social · 10/06/2025

The percent of Americans who report they are in "excellent" health has been declining for some time, but has accelerated since 2012. Source: GSS

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Neil O'Brian @obrian.bsky.social · 29/03/2025

Conservative are more likely today to perceive medical doctors, and medicine, as filled with liberals. Among conservative respondents, their perception that most people in medicine/med doctors: In 2025: 36% Liberal 45% Mod 19% Conservative In 2019 : 21% Liberal 54% Mod 25% Conservative

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Ross Dahlke @rossdahlke.bsky.social · 25/03/2025

Despite trust in personal doctors becoming a partisan issue, experimental evidence suggests that sharing a political background with one's medical provider increases willingness to seek care, finds @obrian.bsky.social & Bradley Kent in @bjpols.bsky.social doi.org/10.1017/S000...

Image description
Partisanship and Trust in Personal Doctors: Causes and Consequences

Abstract
In the first decades of the twentieth century, the gap in age-adjusted mortality rates between people living in Republican and Democratic counties expanded; people in Democratic counties started living longer. This paper argues that political partisanship poses a direct problem for ameliorating these trends: trust and adherence in one’s personal doctor (including on non-COVID-19 related care) – once a non-partisan issue – now divides Democrats (more trustful) and Republicans (less trustful). We argue that this divide is largely a consequence of partisan conflict surrounding COVID-19 that spilled over and created a partisan cleavage in people’s trust in their own personal doctor. We then present experimental evidence that sharing a political background with your medical provider increases willingness to seek care. The doctor-patient relationship is essential for combating some of society’s most pressing proble

Figure 1. Line graph with three panels showing trends in attitudes toward Education, Medicine, and the Scientific Community from 1988 to 2020. Each panel displays two lines: one for Democrats (light blue) and one for Republicans (red), with vertical error bars. Y-axis values range from 1.75 to 2.5. In all panels, Republican ratings decline more steeply over time, especially after 2010. Democrat ratings remain relatively stable or increase slightly, particularly in the Scientific Community panel after 2010.

Figure 2. Dot-and-whisker plot showing treatment effects (Treatment – Control) on three outcomes: “Trust Own Doctor,” “Adhere Doc Advice,” and “Conf. in Medicine.” Three groups are plotted: Vote Biden (light blue), Vote Trump (red), and Biden–Trump difference (gray). The y-axis ranges from -0.5 to 1.0. For “Trust Own Doctor” and “Conf. in Medicine,” the Biden group shows positive treatment effects, while the Trump group shows negative effects. The Biden–Trump difference is positive for all outcomes, with error bars indicating uncertainty. A horizontal dashed line at 0.0 marks no treatment effect.

Image description
Figure 3. Dot-and-whisker plot with four panels showing Average Marginal Component Effects (AMCE) for Democratic (light blue) and Republican (red) respondents across different attributes: Male, Ivy League, Far Away, Democrat, High Rating, Medium Rating, Black, and Hispanic. Panels display results for All Respondents, Female Respondents, Black Respondents, and Latinx Respondents. The x-axis ranges from -0.25 to 0.50 with a vertical dashed line at 0.0 indicating no effect. Each dot represents the AMCE estimate with horizontal error bars indicating uncertainty. Some estimates differ by respondent group, and not all attributes have data points for both political affiliations in all panels.

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Neil O'Brian @obrian.bsky.social · 10/01/2025

4th most read story in local newspaper is about the cat lounge in town. The fourth estate is healthy!

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Neil O'Brian @obrian.bsky.social · 30/12/2024

The #1 read story in Eugene’s newspaper is about a dog who climbed Mt Hood. Local journalism is alive and well!

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Christina Wolbrecht @cwolbrecht.bsky.social · 11/09/2024

Want to learn more about how women are, and are not, role models for adolescents in American politics? Our new book, See Jane Run: How Women Politicians Matter for Young People, will be out this Spring. press.uchicago.edu/ucp/books/bo...

press.uchicago.edu

See Jane Run

The definitive analysis of how the presence of women politicians affects young people. From Kamala Harris to Nikki Haley, women in public life are widely expected to inspire young people, especially g...

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Neil O'Brian @obrian.bsky.social · 26/08/2024

E-pub day is tomorrow (8/27 – hard copy still 9/25)! Roots of Polarization argues that contemporary polarization on “culture war” issues like abortion and gun control in the 1970s-1980s was molded by the racial realignment of the 1960s. #polisky

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Neil O'Brian @obrian.bsky.social · 20/08/2024

"Roots of Polarization" has a 9/25 release date! In the mean time, plan on coming to the author-meets-critics panel at APSA (Thurs @ 8am). Really great panel: @cwolbrecht.bsky.social, @chriswarshaw.bsky.social and Vince Hutchings discussing, & chaired by Eric Schickler. #polisky tinyurl.com/ycypu4nm

tinyurl.com

The Roots of Polarization

A deeply researched account of how battles over civil rights in the 1960s shaped today’s partisan culture wars. In the late twentieth century, gay rights, immigration, gun control, and abortion debate...

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Kathleen Weldon @kathleenweldon.bsky.social · 26/06/2024

Interesting free-response comments from American Soldier surveys of Black GIs in WWII (part of @edgitre.bsky.social 's fantastic mass transcription project) about the surveys themselves. Attitudes range from deep distrust to support.

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Neil O'Brian @obrian.bsky.social · 20/06/2024

do you know of any randomize controlled trials on effects of phones/social media on learning outcomes? from clicking through links can't tell if ambiguity on sm effects is because there is not good evidence, or there is good evidence that shows null effects.

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Neil O'Brian @obrian.bsky.social · 20/06/2024

Is the argument that if Haidt didn't publish book/have a platform that then there wouldn't be a push to limit phones and social media?

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Neil O'Brian @obrian.bsky.social · 12/06/2024

True. But rank-and-file white evangelicals (including in SBC) already conservative on abortion by 1960s. Leadership moved/replaced to represent conservative insurgency. More in forthcoming book "Roots of Polarization": tinyurl.com/45evxyby

tinyurl.com

The Roots of Polarization

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Neil O'Brian @obrian.bsky.social · 07/05/2024

please do. looking forward to it.

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Neil O'Brian @obrian.bsky.social · 07/05/2024

Thank you to the Carnegie Corporation for this opportunity to pursue research on the role politics plays in shaping health outcomes in our polarized society. #CarnegieFellows t.co/DJtcc2zyWt

t.co

Neil A. O'Brian | Carnegie Corporation of New York

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Neil O'Brian @obrian.bsky.social · 10/04/2024

where did the independents go? even after asking lean there are more than ~5% Ind I would think? And it looks like higher educated african-americans are leaving Dems more than lower?

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Brendan Nyhan @brendannyhan.bsky.social · 05/03/2024

New attention check just dropped (and yikes) www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/...

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Neil O'Brian @obrian.bsky.social · 27/02/2024

My thought is while older generations, or even myself, were socialized that democracy was a core value, people who came of age in the Trump era see it as a contested ideal or something that isn't the default. That said, support is still high, and these things are still common, but it's fraying.

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Neil O'Brian @obrian.bsky.social · 26/02/2024

Messages about Trump as a threat to democracy might be relatively less effective in bringing young voters to Biden camp. We primed Dems with messages about J6/democracy and find that young Ds not moved by that message but older Ds are. Article in The Conversation: tinyurl.com/387k7keu polisky

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Neil O'Brian @obrian.bsky.social · 26/02/2024

other polls have asked about that. this was about J6 as threat to democracy. i've pasted one, below (of Dems only(, that paints a broader picture. philip bump in wapo did an interesting piece on this a while ago among all young voters.

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Neil O'Brian @obrian.bsky.social · 26/02/2024

that means 158 observations (data are weighted). percentages are the second number in each cell. poll is fine.

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Neil O'Brian @obrian.bsky.social · 26/02/2024

Another example: when asked if entering capitol on J6 was a legitimate exercise of 1st amendment rts 71% of Ds 18-29 said "not at all legitimate" compared to 89% of Ds 65+

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Neil O'Brian @obrian.bsky.social · 26/02/2024

Young people, including young Dems, are relatively less committed to democracy as an institution than older ppl and perhaps see J6 as less of a threat to democracy. Below is q about perception of J6 as a crisis/problem (asked in 2022). Responses are D only. polisky

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Neil O'Brian @obrian.bsky.social · 21/02/2024

Colleague Chandler James & I wondered if we gave young Democrats information about Biden (e.g., economy is doing well) whether it would increase support/enthusiasm. It didn't move the needle much. Older Dems, though, became quite a bit more supportive. polisky theconversation.com/young-people...

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Neil O'Brian @obrian.bsky.social · 14/02/2024

This is a good article. The one thing I disagree with is that I don't think I've ever seen a player yell at a coach like this, though (and the article suggests it is commonplace), and I watch a fair bit of football. At some point the "he's just a competitor" argument dries out.

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Christina Wolbrecht @cwolbrecht.bsky.social · 07/02/2024

Really proud of this collection -- a set of outstanding essays that challenge and expand our understanding of descriptive represention, including a concluding piece by Mansbridge herself. Please read and share! polisky gendersky

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Neil O'Brian @obrian.bsky.social · 05/02/2024

Does anyone know of data that estimates presidential vote choice by race at the county level? #polisky polisky

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Neil O'Brian @obrian.bsky.social · 31/12/2023

2011 poll by CBS: doi.org/10.25940/ROP...

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Neil O'Brian @obrian.bsky.social · 30/12/2023

One of my favorite papers really puts this argument (did economics, not race, push the South to the GOP) to rest: www.nber.org/system/files...

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Neil O'Brian @obrian.bsky.social · 28/12/2023

Couldn't find a more recent Q, but did find 2021 Q asking whether "Increased public attention to the history of slavery and racism in America" was good or bad for society. Reps = 49% bad & 22% good for society. Dems = 9% bad & 79% good for society.

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Neil O'Brian @obrian.bsky.social · 28/12/2023

In 2011, pollsters asked why Civil War was fought. Republicans and people who favored Trump (Trump was in news bc of birtherism) said States Rights to slavery by ~20pp. Not clear that Haley's comments will cost support among primary voters. (Dems answers not much better.)

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Neil O'Brian @obrian.bsky.social · 22/12/2023

Buckley, himself a Catholic, wrote (again in 1966) that labeling a fetus as a person with human rights "...is a vision so utterly unapproachable as to suggest that the requirements of prudence and of charity intervene..." He eventually moved rightwards.

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Neil O'Brian @obrian.bsky.social · 22/12/2023

"There is great pressure to ease the abortion laws, and it is being said that the Catholic Church prevent its being done... the Catholic Church should reconsider its position.'' --- William F. Buckley, 1966, in National Review. More in forthcoming book: tinyurl.com/445bd4j6

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Neil O'Brian @obrian.bsky.social · 11/12/2023

I've gotta feeling ... that Buffalo's going to the Super Bowl!

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Neil O'Brian @obrian.bsky.social · 07/12/2023

STATA has been humming for hours over here.

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Neil O'Brian @obrian.bsky.social · 07/12/2023

Office window fell off yesterday. Not to worry, it's been taped back on and I'm ready to get back to work. Political science rain or shine!

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West European Politics @wepsocial.bsky.social · 20/11/2023

Online first: "Competing on competence: the issue profiles of mainstream parties in Western Europe" by Christoffer Green-Pedersen & @henrikseeberg.bsky.social doi.org/10.1080/0140... Polisky

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Neil O'Brian @obrian.bsky.social · 19/11/2023

Lot of volatility in young voter vote choice (perhaps esp hard to target likely voters?) ... still think many young voters will vote Biden once campaign heats up. Overheard a student say that "many of her friends didn't know Trump was running for prez in 2024."

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Neil O'Brian @obrian.bsky.social · 05/11/2023

I wonder if the social issue q is more expressive. Dems have moved rapidly leftwards on race, immigration, and abortion in 2010s while Reps have stayed fairly constant on those issues...

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Neil O'Brian @obrian.bsky.social · 03/11/2023

Big day in Congress class. Former member of Congress Peter DeFazio (served in OR-4 for 36 years!) spoke to students today. Among other things, we learned that Cong. DeFazio was a founding member of the craft beer caucus. Thank you Congressman!

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Neil O'Brian @obrian.bsky.social · 07/10/2023

hunting = subfield specific searches?

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Neil O'Brian @obrian.bsky.social · 28/09/2023

for sure. covid did not help anything.

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Neil O'Brian @obrian.bsky.social · 28/09/2023

FWIW, partisan differentials in reported uptake of flu vaccine (on surveys) emerged by the mid/late 2010s. COVID certainly made it worse, but partisan vaccine hesitancy, at least towards the flu, was already there pre-COVID!

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Neil O'Brian @obrian.bsky.social · 25/09/2023

Stories like these --- in NC or elsewhere, at the state or local level --- are THE stories about 2024. For long stretches of US history, election administration has been blatantly political ... www.nytimes.com/2023/09/24/u...

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