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Neil O'Brian

@obrian.bsky.social
672 followers 622 following 59 posts

Assistant Prof | UNC at Chapel Hill | '24 Carnegie Fellow | Studying US public opinion, parties, Congress and American Political Development | Go Bills! | www.neilobrian.com

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Neil O'Brian @obrian.bsky.social · 06/07/2025
Some # of people on Medicaid don't know they are on Medicaid (www.pbs.org/newshour/hea...). Whether there is a partisan tilt to that, IDK. But a 2025 survey shows that just 4% of Rs say they are on Medicaid, which is less than Ds and Is. This could also be due to social desirability in polling, etc.
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Neil O'Brian @obrian.bsky.social · 24/06/2025
Another year of marriage in the books. And what a year it has been! Looking forward to many more :)
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Neil O'Brian @obrian.bsky.social · 16/06/2025
Nothing beats Oregon on a sunny day. (Clementine checking out South Sister on the left; Broken Top on the right.)
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Neil O'Brian @obrian.bsky.social · 10/06/2025
The percent of Americans who report they are in "excellent" health has been declining for some time, but has accelerated since 2012. Source: GSS
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Neil O'Brian @obrian.bsky.social · 10/01/2025
4th most read story in local newspaper is about the cat lounge in town. The fourth estate is healthy!
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Neil O'Brian @obrian.bsky.social · 30/12/2024
The #1 read story in Eugene’s newspaper is about a dog who climbed Mt Hood. Local journalism is alive and well!
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Neil O'Brian @obrian.bsky.social · 26/08/2024
E-pub day is tomorrow (8/27 – hard copy still 9/25)! Roots of Polarization argues that contemporary polarization on “culture war” issues like abortion and gun control in the 1970s-1980s was molded by the racial realignment of the 1960s. #polisky
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Neil O'Brian @obrian.bsky.social · 26/02/2024
Messages about Trump as a threat to democracy might be relatively less effective in bringing young voters to Biden camp. We primed Dems with messages about J6/democracy and find that young Ds not moved by that message but older Ds are. Article in The Conversation: tinyurl.com/387k7keu polisky
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Neil O'Brian @obrian.bsky.social · 26/02/2024
other polls have asked about that. this was about J6 as threat to democracy. i've pasted one, below (of Dems only(, that paints a broader picture. philip bump in wapo did an interesting piece on this a while ago among all young voters.
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Neil O'Brian @obrian.bsky.social · 26/02/2024
Young people, including young Dems, are relatively less committed to democracy as an institution than older ppl and perhaps see J6 as less of a threat to democracy. Below is q about perception of J6 as a crisis/problem (asked in 2022). Responses are D only. polisky
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Neil O'Brian @obrian.bsky.social · 28/12/2023
In 2011, pollsters asked why Civil War was fought. Republicans and people who favored Trump (Trump was in news bc of birtherism) said States Rights to slavery by ~20pp. Not clear that Haley's comments will cost support among primary voters. (Dems answers not much better.)
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Neil O'Brian @obrian.bsky.social · 11/12/2023
I've gotta feeling ... that Buffalo's going to the Super Bowl!
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Neil O'Brian @obrian.bsky.social · 07/12/2023
Office window fell off yesterday. Not to worry, it's been taped back on and I'm ready to get back to work. Political science rain or shine!
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Neil O'Brian @obrian.bsky.social · 19/11/2023
Lot of volatility in young voter vote choice (perhaps esp hard to target likely voters?) ... still think many young voters will vote Biden once campaign heats up. Overheard a student say that "many of her friends didn't know Trump was running for prez in 2024."
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Neil O'Brian @obrian.bsky.social · 03/11/2023
Big day in Congress class. Former member of Congress Peter DeFazio (served in OR-4 for 36 years!) spoke to students today. Among other things, we learned that Cong. DeFazio was a founding member of the craft beer caucus. Thank you Congressman!
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Neil O'Brian @obrian.bsky.social · 31/08/2023
A potential consequence of this is that Reps are less likely to seek mental healthcare. This shows up in survey data. Reps are nearly 8 pp less likely than Dems to visit a mental health professional after controlling for other factors (including self-reported mental health)
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Neil O'Brian @obrian.bsky.social · 24/08/2023
A partial explanation for this trust gap is that people perceive mental health professionals to be predominantly liberal and few perceive them to be conservative. This holds true for both D & R respondents. Graph below shows ideo perceptions of therapists by PID.
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Neil O'Brian @obrian.bsky.social · 22/08/2023
Here is the kitchen sink regression. Data from 2023 convenience sample; would be interested if anyone knows of nat'l representative sample that asks similar Qs.
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Neil O'Brian @obrian.bsky.social · 22/08/2023
Large partisan trust-gap in mental health professionals. Dems about 19 pp more likely to say therapists can be trusted to do what is right almost all/most of the time. PID stronger predictor of trust than demos/insurance status/seeing a therapist/reported levels of happiness.
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