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norabble.substack.com

@norabble.substack.com
14 followers 11 following 78 posts

An IT professional and software architect, with 30+ years of experience, ex-AWS, with a history advising clients in the financial industry. Author of substack.norabble.com.

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norabble.substack.com @norabble.substack.com · 29/09/2026
Most people who use highly capable open-weight AI models have never touched the weight file. Users reach models through APIs deployed by someone else.
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norabble.substack.com @norabble.substack.com · 22/09/2026
AI policy is in its infancy. Calls for a direction are coalescing. But cynicism, and other distractions are avoiding the core questions.
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norabble.substack.com @norabble.substack.com · 01/09/2026
Security backlogs are more critical than ever. We can talk, but how do we translate that to action? Organizations resist change. So you reward them for it. But that reward will bend. You'll get some of what you sought, but something else too, and over time, less of what you sought.
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norabble.substack.com @norabble.substack.com · 17/08/2026
The HuggingFace Incident shows AI attacks are possible, why haven't you seen them? — training alignment — security classifiers — abuse detection at the labs — your own conventional security You can hope and pray the first three are done right, but the fourth is what you can control.
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norabble.substack.com @norabble.substack.com · 05/08/2026
We need to take security more seriously. OpenAI, Anthropic, and more are demonstrating this with their own missteps. Transparency is key here. If I appreciate anything here it's that. We must allow for honesty. I explain, in my latest post, my most widely read so far.
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norabble.substack.com @norabble.substack.com · 23/07/2026
OpenAI patched the sandbox flaw. Sandbox fixes are not enough. The response should be many layered. Alignment is the big picture. More are in between. I discuss observer models, and ask, where were they? What is the standard for internal model deployments? substack.norabble.com/p/an-openai-...
substack.norabble.com
An OpenAI Model Escaped Its Sandbox. Where Was the Observer?
OpenAI accidentally hacked Hugging Face. A basic layer of defense appears to have been missing, and no one has explained why.
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norabble.substack.com @norabble.substack.com · 21/07/2026
We've quietly agreed that "slop" means "content made by AI." I think that definition is a trap. And it's steering us toward the wrong fix. 🧵
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norabble.substack.com @norabble.substack.com · 30/06/2026
The medical consensus says pervasive testing fuels overdiagnosis and hypochondria. I get the worry—but it misses how data compounds. One cheap test is noise; a decade of them is signal. My case for cheap, pervasive testing: substack.norabble.com/p/more-data-... #healthtech
substack.norabble.com
More Data, Please
Rethink Medical Backlash Against Pervasive Testing
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norabble.substack.com @norabble.substack.com · 23/06/2026
Everyone has a hot take on #AI. Awareness of the reality of software development outside the field is skin deep. On screen, programmers appear ~300x less than doctors. That gap could be smaller, if we tried. substack.norabble.com/p/the-invisi...
substack.norabble.com
The Invisible Profession
Opinions about AI are outrunning our understanding of the software beneath it
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norabble.substack.com @norabble.substack.com · 16/06/2026
Six months ago I mapped the AI build-out as a four-layer gamble. Six months later significant hurdles are passed, but there's more to come. Capex is racing $410B → $700B → ~$1T. Today's revenue justifies last year's bet, not next year's. substack.norabble.com/p/the-ai-gam... #AI #AIbubble
substack.norabble.com
The AI Gamble, Six Months On
A layer-by-layer look at the AI value chain — chips to applications — finds firmer footing on capex, but a mountain only half climbed.
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norabble.substack.com @norabble.substack.com · 09/06/2026
The AI bubble debate has a new form: the 'token bubble.' Coming from software with a long interest in economics, I think the framing is off before we get the evidence. A thread on what's actually going on. 🧵 1/
substack.norabble.com
Are We in a Token Bubble?
The wrong question — and a better one for reading the AI boom.
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norabble.substack.com @norabble.substack.com · 02/06/2026
Hiring became a war nobody declared. Employers filtered to cut costs. Applicants gamed the filters. AI removed the last natural brake. Now it's a prisoner's dilemma, one-sided fixes only escalate it. The exit is collaborative. substack.norabble.com/p/hirings-ac... #hiring
substack.norabble.com
Hiring's Accidental War
One-sided fixes become weapons. The exit is collaborative.
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norabble.substack.com @norabble.substack.com · 26/05/2026
'Bachelor's degree or equivalent experience' is logically redundant AND AI hiring tools exploit the ambiguity against candidates. New piece on why lazy hiring is getting worse — and why the recent grad unemployment panic is based on misread data: substack.norabble.com/p/or-equival... #hiring #skills
substack.norabble.com
Or Equivalent Experience
Lazy Mistakes in Hiring and the Truth Behind Jobs Data
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norabble.substack.com @norabble.substack.com · 19/05/2026
AI safety underfunding isn't negligence — it's what liability caps produce. The incentive gap is quantifiable, and quantifying it points toward what corrective policy should look like. substack.norabble.com/p/ai-safety-... #AISafety #AIPolicy
substack.norabble.com
AI Safety Is Underfunded by Design
A Model for Incentive-Aligned AI Safety Policy
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norabble.substack.com @norabble.substack.com · 12/05/2026
The window to govern AI misuse is open—but won't stay that way. Three compounding problems: rogue jurisdictions, unmonitorable open models, internet anonymity. Hard tradeoffs required. #AIPolicy #AISafety substack.norabble.com/p/challenges...
substack.norabble.com
Challenges for AI Misuse Prevention
Jurisdictions, Open Models, and Privacy
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norabble.substack.com @norabble.substack.com · 08/05/2026
Gas prices are up, and the "what-aboutism" regarding the 2022 spike has returned. But equating the two isn't just a political stretch—it’s a mechanical failure to understand supply vs. policy. Let’s look at the first principles of why these spikes happen. 🧵
substack.norabble.com
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norabble.substack.com @norabble.substack.com · 03/05/2026
Interesting shift happening in the software landscape: AI is disrupting both the commercial and security models of open vs. closed source. AI reverse-engineering diminishes closed-source moats, while AI scanning tokens easily outpace the open-source "million eyeballs" security advantage.
substack.norabble.com
Open-Source in the AI Era
Choices and layers
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norabble.substack.com @norabble.substack.com · 28/04/2026
The loudest AI debates are stuck in a binary. Doubters see failure; doomers see apocalypse. They both miss the real shift: the move from deterministic to probabilistic systems. The future isn't code or AI—it's code as the protocol for AI. Full essay: substack.norabble.com/p/control-an...
substack.norabble.com
Control and AI
Holding Tight and Letting Go
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norabble.substack.com @norabble.substack.com · 07/04/2026
The question is no longer "What can the chatbot say?" The real question is: How much scope are we willing to give to indeterminate systems? My new 2-part series on AI, Determinism, and Control is live. 🧵👇
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norabble.substack.com @norabble.substack.com · 30/03/2026
The biggest blind spot in the #AI debate: The fundamental state of an economy is to create new jobs. Current tech layoffs are corrections for COVID over-hiring & interest rates. AI is a convenient mask—"AI-washing" by executives for a short-term stock boost. substack.norabble.com/p/the-ai-job...
substack.norabble.com
The AI Jobs Blind Spot
Why Job Creation is the Default
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norabble.substack.com @norabble.substack.com · 23/03/2026
The weakest link in enterprise security right now isn't vulnerability discovery—it's deployment speed. AI is drastically accelerating the attacker-defender cycle, and our sluggish pipelines are handing them a permanent advantage. 🧵 1/3
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norabble.substack.com @norabble.substack.com · 18/03/2026
In my new piece, I explore why AI "exposure" ignores economic demand. 📊 2x faster tasks yield different outcomes: 1️⃣ Bounded: Job cuts📉 2️⃣ Unbounded: Growth🚀 3️⃣ Adversarial: Arms race⚔️ Lumping them together masks the real cuts. substack.norabble.com/p/ai-jobs-th...
substack.norabble.com
AI Jobs: The Hidden Rules of Demand
Predicting the future of work using Bounded, Unbounded, and Adversarial demand
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norabble.substack.com @norabble.substack.com · 26/02/2026
The financial gravity of #AI is the Application Layer—the industry's ultimate "Reality Check." We explore: 👁️Enterprise API blind spot 📊Consumer "Vibes" vs. Enterprise ROI 🛑Why we are incorrectly blaming "AI Slop" for downstream bottlenecks Read it here: substack.norabble.com/p/ai-applica...
substack.norabble.com
The AI Reality Check
Decoding the Application Layer
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norabble.substack.com @norabble.substack.com · 25/08/2025
Every political ideology is a bet on certain "Technologies of #Trust" (like markets or bureaucracy) and a rejection of others. But what if the goal isn't to pick the "right" ones, but to balance them all? Omitting any creates fragility. My new essay explains. open.substack.com/pub/norabble...
open.substack.com
The Technologies of Trust
How We Cooperate at Scale
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norabble.substack.com @norabble.substack.com · 09/08/2025
Is AI's impact about what it does, or what we do with it? I explore this by looking at advertising as a key case study, proposing "lower-judgment" guardrails & even AI to fight manipulative methods. #AIethics #AISociety #TechEthics #FutureofAI substack.norabble.com/p/ai-and-the...
substack.norabble.com
AI and the Social Ecosystem
Beyond What AI Will Do
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norabble.substack.com @norabble.substack.com · 03/08/2025
Why are businesses hesitant to invest right now? Current tariff policies create a climate of uncertainty that discourages long-term planning. Here’s a look at the hidden drag on the economy that policy debates often miss. #Tariffs #Investment #Economics open.substack.com/pub/norabble...
open.substack.com
Delayed Effects and Dangerous Unpredictability
The Real Risk of Tariffs
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norabble.substack.com @norabble.substack.com · 30/07/2025
In my latest post, I answer the question, "What is Abundance?" My personal view is that it is a pragmatic framework to make the good things in life plentiful for everyone. #Abundance #Politics #YIMBY open.substack.com/pub/norabble...
open.substack.com
What is Abundance?
I’ve been writing about Abundance recently, and in the process, some have asked what I mean.
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norabble.substack.com @norabble.substack.com · 08/07/2025
Tired of AI writing guides that just cover prompting or copy-editing? My latest essay shares a collaborative process for working with AI as a partner. I share my experiences, tips, and a few deeper reflections. norabble.substack.com/p/writing-wi... #AI #WritingCommunity #Essay
norabble.substack.com
Writing with AI
A Collaborator, Not a Vending Machine
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norabble.substack.com @norabble.substack.com · 18/06/2025
#AI tools can accelerate the task they are given, but if the task was a test, the first look can be a mirage that takes more reflection to get to the real value. open.substack.com/pub/norabble...
open.substack.com
The Mirage of Deep Research
Many AI tools now offer a Deep Research feature, which pulls information from numerous resources on the internet and synthesizes them into a single report.
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norabble.substack.com @norabble.substack.com · 27/05/2025
Is #Abundance really just for urban elites? My latest post unpacks the "Abundance for Whom" critique, arguing it's a growing movement with inclusive potential. Let's move beyond the label! #BuildMore #SustainableFuture #EconomicGrowth open.substack.com/pub/norabble...
open.substack.com
Is Abundance Elitist?
It's a growing movement, not a static one
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norabble.substack.com @norabble.substack.com · 23/05/2025
What's the most effective core message for Democrats? I argue that #AbundanceAgenda offers a powerful, forward-looking strategy that can win elections and enable good governance. It's about building a positive-sum future. norabble.substack.com/p/the-strate... #PoliticalStrategy #Democrats
norabble.substack.com
The Strategic Case for Abundance
The Real Political Value of an Abundance Agenda
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