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NOLA Analytics @nolaanalytics.bsky.social · 10/06/2026

Who among us could've foreseen draft nerd Troy Weaver not loving the idea of sitting out of the draft?

NOLA Analytics @nolaanalytics.bsky.social · 12/03/2026

A fun note on how standard deviations break on things like top NBA point totals in a game: There have been 92 games of 60+ points in NBA history. 51/92 of those games have had point totals ending in a 0 or 1. 75/92 have had point totals ending in a 0, 1, 2, or 3.

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NOLA Analytics @nolaanalytics.bsky.social · 01/01/2026

It technically won’t have taken more than 17, but it all but did because Miami scoring drained the clock. Really good CFP game!

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NOLA Analytics @nolaanalytics.bsky.social · 01/01/2026

Oh no is this going to come down to Mario kicking to go up 6?

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NOLA Analytics @nolaanalytics.bsky.social · 01/01/2026

Probably going to take more than 17! And Mario might’ve kicked away his best chance of getting there.

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NOLA Analytics @nolaanalytics.bsky.social · 01/01/2026

Ohio State has 150 yards on its last 2 drives. You can’t just play the score when you’re a sizable underdog, especially when your opponent seems to be finding its footing.

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NOLA Analytics @nolaanalytics.bsky.social · 01/01/2026

It worked out there, but Mario has absolutely been coaching this (as is his norm) as if it’s a race to 17.

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NOLA Analytics @nolaanalytics.bsky.social · 01/01/2026

Miami up 14-0 at half was a smaller favorite than Ohio State was pregame. Your 14-0 lead is only about a 70% chance to win when you’re that big of an underdog that early.

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NOLA Analytics @nolaanalytics.bsky.social · 01/01/2026

If you’re an underdog of over a touchdown, there is no lead big enough in the first half that you should be “protecting.” You have to know the run is coming and you need a cushion big enough to cover for it.

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NOLA Analytics @nolaanalytics.bsky.social · 20/12/2025

There is nothing quite like watching your team roar back from a huge deficit for a monumental win. They’re rare and agonizing at first but are all-time memories for me. Saints-Dolphins 2009 Saints-Washington 2017 Pelicans-Lakers 2022 Bama-OU tonight It is an unmatchable rush.

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NOLA Analytics @nolaanalytics.bsky.social · 15/12/2025

Saints gonna benefit from the worst rule in football?

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NOLA Analytics @nolaanalytics.bsky.social · 14/12/2025

Just want to remember the 18 play, 11:29 march by Brees and Mike Thomas in the 2018 playoffs against the Eagles. Saints had to gain 112 yards on the drive to score the touchdown thanks to a litany of penalties.

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NOLA Analytics @nolaanalytics.bsky.social · 07/12/2025

If your argument is that the games on the field should matter, Alabama was pretty easily the correct choice at #9, and then you could take your pick of the litter of Miami, BYU, and Vandy. Notre Dame was probably pretty easily the best of the group in the end, but the resume was comparatively trash

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NOLA Analytics @nolaanalytics.bsky.social · 03/12/2025

Bucks fans (and it's not just them; every fanbase, including the Pelicans, does this) thought it was a win that Giannis wanted to stay, and they could eek out some .500 years a few more times. But those years aren't fun, and you just make your next stage harder by not maximizing return.

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NOLA Analytics @nolaanalytics.bsky.social · 03/12/2025

I've said it with the Pelicans, and it was true with the Bucks. People love to tell themselves they would be happy with a likeable team that wins 40-45 games. If your highest goals are going .500, it is basically NEVER fun long-term because those teams are boring and uninteresting.

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Reposted by NOLA Analytics

JCsPops (Fuck Mango Mussolini) @jdub9911.bsky.social · 30/11/2025

@nolaanalytics.bsky.social and I would KILL Pete Carmichael for his tendency for incessant 1st down runs. Kellen Moore is doing the same shit… …with a 3rd string RB. Get this dude outta my face.

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NOLA Analytics @nolaanalytics.bsky.social · 30/11/2025

Last year, the final CFP Top 15 lost a combined 15 games to teams outside the top 15. This year, the top 15 teams will have lost a combined 5 games to teams outside the top 15. There are 15 good, deserving teams for 12 (really 10) playoff spots. It's tough.

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NOLA Analytics @nolaanalytics.bsky.social · 21/11/2025

Side note on this: I can’t imagine the catharsis Pistons fans are experiencing from their start to the season combined with watching Dumars and Weaver run a different franchise into the ground.

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NOLA Analytics @nolaanalytics.bsky.social · 20/11/2025

Props to people like Shamit and Scott Kushner for bringing things like this to the forefront of the conversation. Guys like Derik Queen and Tyler Shough are seemingly nice little distractions in the meantime, but there is so much rot at the top of the Nola sports franchises dooming them long-term.

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NOLA Analytics @nolaanalytics.bsky.social · 17/11/2025

And the 3-7 Falcons are slated to be bottom 10 in cap space. They're in a better spot long-term than the Saints still though because they will move on from the guy driving them into the ground while the Saints will not.

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NOLA Analytics @nolaanalytics.bsky.social · 17/11/2025

Fontenot in particular has essentially mimicked the Saints over the last 5 years. He took over a 4-12 team in need of a rebuild, traded up 5 times vs 1 trade down, signed an injured mediocre QB to a huge contract, and went 29-39 in his first 4 years which was never enough for a top pick for a QB.

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NOLA Analytics @nolaanalytics.bsky.social · 17/11/2025

Ryan Pace and Terry Fontenot combined to trade up 15 times vs 5 trade downs in the NFL draft en route to leading their teams to a combined 0 playoff wins in a combined 12 seasons. The Mickey Loomis tree looks a lot like Mickey Loomis.

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NOLA Analytics @nolaanalytics.bsky.social · 16/11/2025

Almost every Bama underachieving season/one where they miss the Playoff involves a loss like this: 2019 vs Auburn: 94% PGWE 2024 vs Vandy: 98.5% PGWE 2025 vs OU: 95.2% PGWE

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NOLA Analytics @nolaanalytics.bsky.social · 15/11/2025

Initial take: Fears has the juice. Queen looks pretty good, but this team's future would look so much cleaner and better if the Pelicans just did the simple thing and took Fears at 7 and held onto that 1st for next. Oh well, fun game watching the rooks.

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NOLA Analytics @nolaanalytics.bsky.social · 14/11/2025

I haven’t watched any Pelicans this year in regular season, preseason, or summer league, but I got invited to the game tonight so I’m excited to see Fears and Queen for the first time after reading some good things about them!

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NOLA Analytics @nolaanalytics.bsky.social · 11/11/2025

Here is the complete list of QBs the Saints have beaten in the nearly 4 years since Sean Payton left:

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NOLA Analytics @nolaanalytics.bsky.social · 09/11/2025

Two of the more underrated pieces of every rebuild are the bad coach and bad QB who get you the opportunity to draft a franchise QB and hire a good coach to go along with him. Moore and Rattler/Shough are performing admirably in their roles thus far.

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NOLA Analytics @nolaanalytics.bsky.social · 05/11/2025

I had to stop my set at the gym just now laughing at this part of the pod.

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NOLA Analytics @nolaanalytics.bsky.social · 03/11/2025

My fears from the last couple years that have been confirmed now were that the things separating the Saints from the Jets and the Pelicans from the Kings were not overall organizational stability, but three Hall of Famers (Payton, Brees, Anthony Davis) dragging poor organizations to relevance.

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NOLA Analytics @nolaanalytics.bsky.social · 03/11/2025

And the saddest part is that there's no sign this'll improve. A Benson team has never planned for the future over the present since they bought the Pels (until the Derek Carr retirement forced their hand this year). We're barreling towards basketball in New Orleans ending with a whimper.

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NOLA Analytics @nolaanalytics.bsky.social · 03/11/2025

I have spent more time watching, reading about, listening to podcasts, etc. on the Pelicans than I have any other team. And I haven't watched a second yet this season and likely won't as long as the regime continues on this track. Benson's group has killed basketball here.

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NOLA Analytics @nolaanalytics.bsky.social · 03/11/2025

This hits on the same problem the Benson's other team is running into now. The time to rebuild was late 2024. The Pelicans have wasted everyone's time since then, have driven fan support into the ground, and have burnt all goodwill. And then they have to *start* a rebuild.

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NOLA Analytics @nolaanalytics.bsky.social · 03/11/2025

After (apparently wisely) skipping out on watching the first 6 games and this season of Pelicans basketball, I get to cheer for my basketball team tonight. Let's go!

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NOLA Analytics @nolaanalytics.bsky.social · 27/10/2025

This is the future the libs want (shoutout Nate Oats)

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NOLA Analytics @nolaanalytics.bsky.social · 05/10/2025

Using SP+, an average top 10 team would have about a 2% chance of losing @ UCLA in 2025. For reference, an average top 10 team per SP+ in 2024 would have about a 2% of losing both @ Vanderbilt and @ Oklahoma. It’s unfathomable how bad of a loss it is.

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NOLA Analytics @nolaanalytics.bsky.social · 25/09/2025

And if you're a bride or groom, do whatever works best for you. But just know that if you get married, say, on a Saturday in the Fall, people at your reception will probably be checking scores/watching games so take that into account when figuring out which will be the most fun date for you.

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NOLA Analytics @nolaanalytics.bsky.social · 25/09/2025

I think I've settled on: do whatever makes you happier. If watching the football game will make you happier than celebrating your friend, so be it. But under no circumstances should you ever be complaining to the bride and groom that their wedding date/time is inconvenient for you.

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NOLA Analytics @nolaanalytics.bsky.social · 22/09/2025

The idea of going 4-13 vs 8-9 is that, at the end of the year, when you are in position to draft a QB, no one will look back and say "well at least the Derek Carr teams won about half the time. I miss those days" because going 8-9 also sucks, and everyone will at least be excited about the next QB.

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NOLA Analytics @nolaanalytics.bsky.social · 22/09/2025

One thing I've continually found in rebuilding teams is that fans tend to have a fantasy that a team can lose enough games to secure a top pick but also do so while being fun and never being blown out. You don't go 4-13 by losing 13 single digit games. You lose 13 games by getting blown out a lot.

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NOLA Analytics @nolaanalytics.bsky.social · 21/09/2025

If the Pelicans are any hint into how this organization will operate, the Saints will pivot from running a somewhat real search and finding a young offensive head coach by firing him in a couple years and hiring Aaron Glenn after he’s fired by the Jets.

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NOLA Analytics @nolaanalytics.bsky.social · 21/09/2025

It’s once again pretty clear why Kellen Moore was available for the saints to hire and why he was willing to take the worst job in the NFL.

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NOLA Analytics @nolaanalytics.bsky.social · 19/09/2025

It's similar to the zero tolerance policy for gambling and why players get insane suspensions for merely betting on a different sport while on team property. It should be on teams to avoid anything that could reasonably be interpreted as cheating.

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NOLA Analytics @nolaanalytics.bsky.social · 19/09/2025

My take on the Clippers-Kawhi situation is that I don't think "beyond a reasonable doubt" should be the standard here. If you're a professional sports league, avoiding the mere *appearance* of cheating should be paramount, and the onus should turn to LAC to prove it was not nefarious.

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NOLA Analytics @nolaanalytics.bsky.social · 14/09/2025

With Alabama's 45 point expected margin of victory yesterday, I fear for your mentions when the SP+ rankings drop.

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NOLA Analytics @nolaanalytics.bsky.social · 07/09/2025

I’m very satisfied with the loss there, but on the Kellen Moore end, he had really rough moments at the end of both halves: giving up a free drive at the end of the 1st and kicking down 10 from the 5 yard line which forced them into needing a TD from the 18 instead.

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NOLA Analytics @nolaanalytics.bsky.social · 07/09/2025

There will be people who, reasonably, try to find joy in this Saints season in other ways, but far and away the most important thing that will come from this Saints season is whether or not they get in position to draft a QB with the potential to be a top 5-8 guy. Everything else is small potatoes.

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NOLA Analytics @nolaanalytics.bsky.social · 07/09/2025

The SEC is very good at football.

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