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NOLA Analytics @nolaanalytics.bsky.social · 10/06/2026

Who among us could've foreseen draft nerd Troy Weaver not loving the idea of sitting out of the draft?

NOLA Analytics @nolaanalytics.bsky.social · 12/03/2026

A fun note on how standard deviations break on things like top NBA point totals in a game: There have been 92 games of 60+ points in NBA history. 51/92 of those games have had point totals ending in a 0 or 1. 75/92 have had point totals ending in a 0, 1, 2, or 3.

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NOLA Analytics @nolaanalytics.bsky.social · 01/01/2026

It technically won’t have taken more than 17, but it all but did because Miami scoring drained the clock. Really good CFP game!

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NOLA Analytics @nolaanalytics.bsky.social · 01/01/2026

Oh no is this going to come down to Mario kicking to go up 6?

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NOLA Analytics @nolaanalytics.bsky.social · 01/01/2026

It worked out there, but Mario has absolutely been coaching this (as is his norm) as if it’s a race to 17.

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NOLA Analytics @nolaanalytics.bsky.social · 01/01/2026

If you’re an underdog of over a touchdown, there is no lead big enough in the first half that you should be “protecting.” You have to know the run is coming and you need a cushion big enough to cover for it.

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NOLA Analytics @nolaanalytics.bsky.social · 20/12/2025

There is nothing quite like watching your team roar back from a huge deficit for a monumental win. They’re rare and agonizing at first but are all-time memories for me. Saints-Dolphins 2009 Saints-Washington 2017 Pelicans-Lakers 2022 Bama-OU tonight It is an unmatchable rush.

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NOLA Analytics @nolaanalytics.bsky.social · 15/12/2025

Saints gonna benefit from the worst rule in football?

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NOLA Analytics @nolaanalytics.bsky.social · 14/12/2025

Just want to remember the 18 play, 11:29 march by Brees and Mike Thomas in the 2018 playoffs against the Eagles. Saints had to gain 112 yards on the drive to score the touchdown thanks to a litany of penalties.

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NOLA Analytics @nolaanalytics.bsky.social · 07/12/2025

If your argument is that the games on the field should matter, Alabama was pretty easily the correct choice at #9, and then you could take your pick of the litter of Miami, BYU, and Vandy. Notre Dame was probably pretty easily the best of the group in the end, but the resume was comparatively trash

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NOLA Analytics @nolaanalytics.bsky.social · 03/12/2025

I've said it with the Pelicans, and it was true with the Bucks. People love to tell themselves they would be happy with a likeable team that wins 40-45 games. If your highest goals are going .500, it is basically NEVER fun long-term because those teams are boring and uninteresting.

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Reposted by NOLA Analytics

JCsPops (Fuck Mango Mussolini) @jdub9911.bsky.social · 30/11/2025

@nolaanalytics.bsky.social and I would KILL Pete Carmichael for his tendency for incessant 1st down runs. Kellen Moore is doing the same shit… …with a 3rd string RB. Get this dude outta my face.

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NOLA Analytics @nolaanalytics.bsky.social · 30/11/2025

Last year, the final CFP Top 15 lost a combined 15 games to teams outside the top 15. This year, the top 15 teams will have lost a combined 5 games to teams outside the top 15. There are 15 good, deserving teams for 12 (really 10) playoff spots. It's tough.

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NOLA Analytics @nolaanalytics.bsky.social · 21/11/2025

Side note on this: I can’t imagine the catharsis Pistons fans are experiencing from their start to the season combined with watching Dumars and Weaver run a different franchise into the ground.

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NOLA Analytics @nolaanalytics.bsky.social · 20/11/2025

Props to people like Shamit and Scott Kushner for bringing things like this to the forefront of the conversation. Guys like Derik Queen and Tyler Shough are seemingly nice little distractions in the meantime, but there is so much rot at the top of the Nola sports franchises dooming them long-term.

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NOLA Analytics @nolaanalytics.bsky.social · 17/11/2025

Ryan Pace and Terry Fontenot combined to trade up 15 times vs 5 trade downs in the NFL draft en route to leading their teams to a combined 0 playoff wins in a combined 12 seasons. The Mickey Loomis tree looks a lot like Mickey Loomis.

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NOLA Analytics @nolaanalytics.bsky.social · 15/11/2025

Initial take: Fears has the juice. Queen looks pretty good, but this team's future would look so much cleaner and better if the Pelicans just did the simple thing and took Fears at 7 and held onto that 1st for next. Oh well, fun game watching the rooks.

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NOLA Analytics @nolaanalytics.bsky.social · 14/11/2025

I haven’t watched any Pelicans this year in regular season, preseason, or summer league, but I got invited to the game tonight so I’m excited to see Fears and Queen for the first time after reading some good things about them!

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NOLA Analytics @nolaanalytics.bsky.social · 11/11/2025

Here is the complete list of QBs the Saints have beaten in the nearly 4 years since Sean Payton left:

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NOLA Analytics @nolaanalytics.bsky.social · 09/11/2025

Two of the more underrated pieces of every rebuild are the bad coach and bad QB who get you the opportunity to draft a franchise QB and hire a good coach to go along with him. Moore and Rattler/Shough are performing admirably in their roles thus far.

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NOLA Analytics @nolaanalytics.bsky.social · 03/11/2025

My fears from the last couple years that have been confirmed now were that the things separating the Saints from the Jets and the Pelicans from the Kings were not overall organizational stability, but three Hall of Famers (Payton, Brees, Anthony Davis) dragging poor organizations to relevance.

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NOLA Analytics @nolaanalytics.bsky.social · 03/11/2025

This hits on the same problem the Benson's other team is running into now. The time to rebuild was late 2024. The Pelicans have wasted everyone's time since then, have driven fan support into the ground, and have burnt all goodwill. And then they have to *start* a rebuild.

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NOLA Analytics @nolaanalytics.bsky.social · 03/11/2025

After (apparently wisely) skipping out on watching the first 6 games and this season of Pelicans basketball, I get to cheer for my basketball team tonight. Let's go!

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NOLA Analytics @nolaanalytics.bsky.social · 27/10/2025

This is the future the libs want (shoutout Nate Oats)

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NOLA Analytics @nolaanalytics.bsky.social · 22/09/2025

One thing I've continually found in rebuilding teams is that fans tend to have a fantasy that a team can lose enough games to secure a top pick but also do so while being fun and never being blown out. You don't go 4-13 by losing 13 single digit games. You lose 13 games by getting blown out a lot.

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NOLA Analytics @nolaanalytics.bsky.social · 21/09/2025

It’s once again pretty clear why Kellen Moore was available for the saints to hire and why he was willing to take the worst job in the NFL.

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NOLA Analytics @nolaanalytics.bsky.social · 19/09/2025

My take on the Clippers-Kawhi situation is that I don't think "beyond a reasonable doubt" should be the standard here. If you're a professional sports league, avoiding the mere *appearance* of cheating should be paramount, and the onus should turn to LAC to prove it was not nefarious.

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NOLA Analytics @nolaanalytics.bsky.social · 07/09/2025

I’m very satisfied with the loss there, but on the Kellen Moore end, he had really rough moments at the end of both halves: giving up a free drive at the end of the 1st and kicking down 10 from the 5 yard line which forced them into needing a TD from the 18 instead.

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NOLA Analytics @nolaanalytics.bsky.social · 07/09/2025

There will be people who, reasonably, try to find joy in this Saints season in other ways, but far and away the most important thing that will come from this Saints season is whether or not they get in position to draft a QB with the potential to be a top 5-8 guy. Everything else is small potatoes.

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NOLA Analytics @nolaanalytics.bsky.social · 07/09/2025

The SEC is very good at football.

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NOLA Analytics @nolaanalytics.bsky.social · 26/08/2025

Not being able to beat out Rattler probably all but calls it for the slim chance Shough had at being a QB of the caliber that the Saints could actually win something meaningful with him down the line, but as long as they get a top pick next year, it doesn't really matter.

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NOLA Analytics @nolaanalytics.bsky.social · 23/08/2025

I am noticing that whichever Saints QB gets to play against backups each week tends to look better, and whichever Saints QB plays with Saints starters against starting defenses tends to look terrible which is probably a sign of things to come for the next 17 games.

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NOLA Analytics @nolaanalytics.bsky.social · 21/08/2025

Both of Gayle Benson’s teams are so obviously the marks that the rest of the teams in their leagues target whenever they need to win a trade.

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NOLA Analytics @nolaanalytics.bsky.social · 14/08/2025

The Pelicans have the hardest schedule in the NBA this season. Their win total is down to 29.5 on Fanduel, shaded towards the Under.

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NOLA Analytics @nolaanalytics.bsky.social · 18/07/2025

Genuinely, the best spin is that the longer Queen takes to make his debut and the more excuses he has when he returns, the longer fans can argue that the Pelicans haven't lost the Hawks trade yet.

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NOLA Analytics @nolaanalytics.bsky.social · 18/07/2025

The NBA season starts in 13 weeks, but fortunately, Alabama basketball starts in 15 weeks.

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NOLA Analytics @nolaanalytics.bsky.social · 18/07/2025

Zach Lowe mentioned this point on his podcast yesterday. The median outcome is that the trade is fine or is a small enough loss that it’s not a franchise ruiner. And I’m sure people will rush to defend it if that happens. But the full scope and downside risk is such a massive loss regardless.

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NOLA Analytics @nolaanalytics.bsky.social · 15/07/2025

It's one of the reasons I personally disagree with people who want them to continue pouring assets into this team. I think of this as more of a "first step to getting out of a hole is to stop digging" than "since you're already down this path, you might as well go all the way."

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NOLA Analytics @nolaanalytics.bsky.social · 15/07/2025

Using win totals and alternate win totals on DraftKings, here are the Pelicans projections for next season:

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NOLA Analytics @nolaanalytics.bsky.social · 10/07/2025

I'm not watching and, good or bad, it's just Summer League, but I once again feel for Derik Queen because, based on where he was drafted, there's a > 50% chance he's not a playoff rotation level player, but he now has top 5 pick expectations because of an awful trade by the Pelicans.

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NOLA Analytics @nolaanalytics.bsky.social · 10/07/2025

I won't be watching Summer League so there will be better people to go to for analysis, but I will issue my annual reminder that you should draw absolutely nothing away from 3P% and, to lesser extents, overall FG% and PPG from summer league. It's basically all going to be variance.

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NOLA Analytics @nolaanalytics.bsky.social · 06/07/2025

The Pelicans open with a win total of 32.5 on DraftKings. That’s tied with Portland for 12th in the West and tied with Portland, Chicago, and Toronto for the 6th lowest in the NBA.

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NOLA Analytics @nolaanalytics.bsky.social · 01/07/2025

The saddest part of JV to the Nuggets is that we lose out on Jokic vs JV games. Since JV was traded to the Pelicans, Jokic has averaged 32-14-11 on 70% True Shooting in games vs JV. He's 27-13-9 on 63% True Shooting in all other games.

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NOLA Analytics @nolaanalytics.bsky.social · 01/07/2025

I can tell this is beginning because I feel absolutely nothing towards the Pelicans making yet another bad move.

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NOLA Analytics @nolaanalytics.bsky.social · 30/06/2025

You can tell who understands probability by how they talk about this trade down the road. The median outcome is that the Pelicans don’t lose a ton of value here (or better). But the tail outcomes are completely stacked against the Pels and show an organization that doesn’t understand so.

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NOLA Analytics @nolaanalytics.bsky.social · 30/06/2025

Ran through some rough simulations on the Pelicans/Hawks trade using historical draft pick data and weighted estimates on where the 2026 Pelicans pick falls: ~ How often does each team "win" trade: Pelicans: 25% Hawks: 60%

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NOLA Analytics @nolaanalytics.bsky.social · 27/06/2025

I continue to worry about a Saints-style snowballing form here. The Pelicans made 3 -EV trades within 8 days in part to acquire more/better picks this draft since Troy Weaver liked it. They now have 0 picks next year so what happens if/when Weaver likes the draft but has no picks?

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NOLA Analytics @nolaanalytics.bsky.social · 27/06/2025

Well hey, go Bucks and go Mark Sears

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NOLA Analytics @nolaanalytics.bsky.social · 26/06/2025

This feels like a good time to remind everyone that the Pelicans were -51 last year in the 836 minutes when at least two of Zion, Trey, and Herb were on the court together. That's an average of -3.5/game which would've ranked 7th worst in the NBA last season.

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