iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Reposted by Noble Francis

Noble Francis @noblefrancis.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

Just note that for all the initial noise, public relations & share price rises, 'Your First Home' (i.e. Help to Buy revisited) won't have anywhere near the impact that the initial 'Help to Buy' did (1/n) #ukhousing #ukconstruction

234

Noble Francis @noblefrancis.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

234

Reposted by Noble Francis

Noble Francis @noblefrancis.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

We finally have the official house building starts & completions data for 2026 Q2 from MHCLG. There were 35,800 house building completions in England in 2026 Q2 & 143,490 completions in the year to Q2 according to MHCLG. (1/n) #ukhousing #ukconstruction

111

Noble Francis @noblefrancis.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

111

Reposted by Noble Francis

Noble Francis @noblefrancis.bsky.social · 16/09/2026

UK brick deliveries are a useful proxy for new house building starts in the absence of monthly starts data. Deliveries in July 2026 were 6.8% lower than in June & 19.5% lower than a year ago, according to the Department for Business & Trade. (1/n) #ukhousing #ukconstruction

212

Noble Francis @noblefrancis.bsky.social · 16/09/2026

212

Reposted by Noble Francis

Noble Francis @noblefrancis.bsky.social · 11/09/2026

House building activity fell once again as expected in July 2026. House building output in July was 3.6% lower than in June & 10.3% lower than a year ago, according to this morning's GDP data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS). (1/n) #ukhousing #housing

1116

Noble Francis @noblefrancis.bsky.social · 11/09/2026

1116

Noble Francis @noblefrancis.bsky.social · 18/08/2026

Note that the top 10 UK house builders only directly employ 1 person for every 3 homes they build. Virtually everything is subcontracted out (to small specialist contractors & self-employed workers) to withstand sharp downturns in demand. #ukhousing #ukconstruction

041

Noble Francis @noblefrancis.bsky.social · 18/08/2026

There were 2.07 million people employed in UK construction in 2026 Q2, which was flat compared with Q1 (0.0%) but was 0.5% lower than a year ago. It was also 14.5% lower than the recent peak in 2019 Q1, and at its lowest level since 2001, according to the ONS. (1/n) #ukhousing #ukconstruction

131

Reposted by Noble Francis

Noble Francis @noblefrancis.bsky.social · 13/08/2026

Essentially, the problem for government is not 1.5 million net additional new homes in England in the 5-year parliament or not 1.5 million new homes. The critical problem for government is to stop house building falling even further, for a 5th consecutive year, in 2027. #ukhousing #ukconstruction

032

Reposted by Noble Francis

Noble Francis @noblefrancis.bsky.social · 13/08/2026

In terms of public house building activity, just note that there is a structural break data problem in the ONS public house building data in January 2022 (where the level of activity essentially doubles) so be careful using the data. However,... (10/n) #ukhousing #ukconstruction

101

Reposted by Noble Francis

Noble Francis @noblefrancis.bsky.social · 13/08/2026

Private house building activity in June 2026 was broadly flat (+0.1%) compared to May but 5.7% lower than a year ago, even before most of the lagged impacts of the Middle East conflict on housing demand & costs, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS). (1/n) #ukhousing #ukconstruction

101

Noble Francis @noblefrancis.bsky.social · 13/08/2026

032

Noble Francis @noblefrancis.bsky.social · 13/08/2026

101

Reposted by Noble Francis

Noble Francis @noblefrancis.bsky.social · 05/08/2026

UK brick deliveries are a useful proxy for new house building starts in the absence of monthly starts data. As expected, deliveries in June 2026 were flat compared with May but 11.4% lower than a year ago, according to the Department for Business & Trade. (1/n) #ukhousing #ukconstruction

195

Noble Francis @noblefrancis.bsky.social · 05/08/2026

195

Noble Francis @noblefrancis.bsky.social · 22/07/2026

London House Price Affordability 20 years ago, 10 years ago & in 2026: May 2006 - Average House Price: £247,591 - Mortgage Rate: 5.14% May 2016 - Average House Price: £500,469 - Mortgage Rate: 2.12% May 2026 - Average House Price: £544,814 - Mortgage Rate: 4.88% #ukhousing

021

Noble Francis @noblefrancis.bsky.social · 22/07/2026

UK House Price Affordability 20 years ago, 10 years ago & in 2026: May 2006 - Average House Price: £166,606 - Mortgage Rate: 5.14% May 2016 - Average House Price: £194,240 - Mortgage Rate: 2.12% May 2026 - Average House Price: £271,295 - Mortgage Rate: 4.88% #ukhousing

130

Reposted by Noble Francis

Noble Francis @noblefrancis.bsky.social · 16/07/2026

The volume of private house building activity in May 2026 was 2.3% higher than in April but 5.3% lower than a year ago, even before the impacts of the Middle East conflict, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS). (1/n) #ukhousing #ukconstruction

123

Noble Francis @noblefrancis.bsky.social · 16/07/2026

123

Reposted by Noble Francis

Neal Hudson @resi-analyst.bsky.social · 02/07/2026

London has its own set of problems but it's definitely a national issue. Though there's a definite north/south. Bit simplistic: South East has better viability but fewer people able to buy due to high mortgage rates. North West less affected by rates but viability is a bigger challenge.

141

Reposted by Noble Francis

Neal Hudson @resi-analyst.bsky.social · 02/07/2026

How do we save the wilting new homes market? My latest for the FT: www.ft.com/content/2881...

5136

Reposted by Noble Francis

Noble Francis @noblefrancis.bsky.social · 01/07/2026

UK brick deliveries are a useful proxy for new house building starts in the absence of monthly starts data. As expected, deliveries in May 2026 were 1.3% higher than in April but 8.1% lower than a year ago, according to the Department for Business & Trade. (1/n) #ukhousing #ukconstruction

151

Noble Francis @noblefrancis.bsky.social · 01/07/2026

151

Noble Francis @noblefrancis.bsky.social · 29/06/2026

Both Labour & Conservative politicians always make big house building promises, but they have nothing to do with reality. We never even got to Gordon Brown's 240,000 new housebuilding completions a year in the UK target from 2007, never mind more recent fantasy targets... #ukhousing #ukconstruction

221

Reposted by Noble Francis

Noble Francis @noblefrancis.bsky.social · 03/06/2026

UK brick deliveries are a useful proxy for new house building starts in the absence of monthly starts data. As expected, deliveries in April 2026 were 3% higher than in March but 1% lower than a year ago, according to the Department for Business & Trade. (1/n) #ukhousing #ukconstruction

112

Noble Francis @noblefrancis.bsky.social · 03/06/2026

112

Reposted by Noble Francis

Noble Francis @noblefrancis.bsky.social · 19/05/2026

There were 2.07 million people employed in UK construction in 2026 Q1, which was 0.6% higher than in Q4 but 3.4% lower than a year ago, 14.5% lower than the recent peak in 2019 Q1 & it remains at its lowest levels since 2001, according to the ONS. (1/n) #ukconstruction #ukhousing

124

Noble Francis @noblefrancis.bsky.social · 19/05/2026

124

Noble Francis @noblefrancis.bsky.social · 14/05/2026

Private house building activity in March 2026 was 2.8% higher than persistent rain-affected February but still 4.6% lower than a year ago, according to the ONS, before the impacts of the Middle East conflict on both housing demand (affordability) & supply (costs). (1/n) #ukhousing #ukconstruction

221

Noble Francis @noblefrancis.bsky.social · 06/05/2026

UK brick deliveries are a useful proxy for new house building starts in the absence of monthly starts data. As expected, in March 2026, deliveries were 26.7% higher than in February but 3.4% lower than a year ago, according to the Department for Business & Trade. (1/n) #ukhousing #ukconstruction

164

Reposted by Noble Francis

Noble Francis @noblefrancis.bsky.social · 08/04/2026

UK brick deliveries are a useful proxy for new house building starts in the absence of monthly starts data. Deliveries in February 2026 were 0.9% lower than in January & 20.8% lower than a year earlier, according to the Department for Business & Trade. (1/n) #ukhousing #ukconstruction

166

Noble Francis @noblefrancis.bsky.social · 08/04/2026

166

Noble Francis @noblefrancis.bsky.social · 07/04/2026

A useful bit of information from @resi-analyst.bsky.social in his excellent new piece in the Financial Times on issues facing housing: "even the government’s own modelling for the Future Homes Standard shows it will miss its 1.5 million housebuilding target by 400,000". #ukhousing #ukconstruction

132

Reposted by Noble Francis

Noble Francis @noblefrancis.bsky.social · 01/04/2026

Given that house building completions in England in 2025 fell by 8%, a 3rd successive fall according to MHCLG, it's worth noting that site viability & affordability were not only the biggest house building issues last year, but they will get worse this year. (1/n) #ukconstruction #ukhousing

245

Noble Francis @noblefrancis.bsky.social · 01/04/2026

245

Reposted by Noble Francis

Noble Francis @noblefrancis.bsky.social · 13/03/2026

Private house building activity fell again in January 2026, as expected, in the ONS construction output data this morning. Private housing output in January was 5.6% lower than in December, 10.7% lower than a year ago & 28.7% lower than at the recent peak in 2022. (1/n) #ukhousing #ukconstruction

1710

Noble Francis @noblefrancis.bsky.social · 13/03/2026

1710

Noble Francis @noblefrancis.bsky.social · 05/03/2026

According to the latest S&P Global UK Construction PMI, UK construction activity fell again in February 2026 (it's 14th consecutive fall). 50=no monthly change & it was 44.5, a faster fall than in January (46.4). (1/n) #ukconstruction #ukhousing

143

Reposted by Noble Francis

Noble Francis @noblefrancis.bsky.social · 04/03/2026

UK brick deliveries are a useful proxy for new house building starts in the absence of monthly starts data. Deliveries in January 2026 were 7.6% lower than a year earlier, according to the Department for Business & Trade. (1/n) #ukhousing #ukconstruction

133

Noble Francis @noblefrancis.bsky.social · 04/03/2026

133

Reposted by Noble Francis

Neal Hudson @resi-analyst.bsky.social · 03/03/2026

It's even more unlikely if you accept their mortgage rate forecast (which looks ludicrously under-optimistic!)

122

Noble Francis @noblefrancis.bsky.social · 03/03/2026

The OBR Spring Statement forecasts the low point of house building as next year (2026/27), with 1.3 million net additional dwellings in the UK in the 5-year Parliament. Government's 1.5 million target is England only over 5 years so the OBR forecast is equivalent to 1.1 million &... #SpringStatement

123

Noble Francis @noblefrancis.bsky.social · 03/03/2026

Given the Spring Statement OBR forecasts are already too optimistic due to the impact of recent Middle Eastern conflict on energy prices, inflation & GDP, the OBR revising 2026 GDP growth from 1.4% in Autumn to 1.1% now is concerning as it will be revised down again in Autumn. #SpringStatement

031

Noble Francis @noblefrancis.bsky.social · 18/02/2026

High-rise (7 storeys or more) residential building has had a lot to deal with over the last few years. The downturn in housing demand & rise in financing costs after interest rates rose, affordability issues,... (1/n) #ukhousing #ukconstruction

220

Reposted by Noble Francis

Noble Francis @noblefrancis.bsky.social · 17/02/2026

There were 2.06 million in the UK construction workforce in 2025 Q4, according to the ONS, which is broadly flat compared with Q3, 3.9% lower than a year earlier & 15.0% lower than in 2019 Q1. (1/n) #ukconstruction #ukhousing

145

Noble Francis @noblefrancis.bsky.social · 17/02/2026

145

Reposted by Noble Francis

Noble Francis @noblefrancis.bsky.social · 12/02/2026

Private housing volume of output in December 2025 (seasonally adjusted) was 0.9% lower than in November, 6.1% lower than a year ago & 24.4% lower than at the recent peak in May 2024, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS). (1/n) #ukhousing #ukconstruction

132

Noble Francis @noblefrancis.bsky.social · 12/02/2026

132