iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Reposted by Nils Gubela

NetSci 2026 @netsciconf.bsky.social · 01/06/2026

NetSci 2026 is officially underway! Network thinkers from around the world have gathered for a week of great science, collaboration, and discovery. Today and tomorrow feature Satellite Sessions, a School Talk, and satellite posters—where ideas connect and new partnerships begin.

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Reposted by Nils Gubela

Alexander Bartel @ndevln.biostats.dev · 27/03/2026

Our new rapid communication in @eurosurveillance.org: We currently observe mpox clade Ib transmission among MSM in Berlin. 35 cases mostly reported local exposure. Sequencing showed high genomic relatedness, suggesting a larger transmission network. Vaccination remains key. 🔗 doi.org/10.2807/1560...

Epidemiological curve showing the number of reported mpox cases in Berlin by reporting week, from week 45 of 2025 through week 10 of 2026. Case counts are low with up to three cases from weeks 45–49 of 2025, with primarily clade IIb and some unknown cases. The first clade Ib case is observed in week 50 with five cases overall in this week. Starting around week 1 of 2026, clade Ib cases begin appearing alongside clade IIb cases, while cases increase to up to five per week. From week 6 onward, there is an increase in reported mpox cases dominated by clade Ib, with nine cases in week 9.

Phylogenetic tree of MPXV sequences. The tree is rooted with clade Ia sequences at the base, followed by a clearly labeled clade Ib branch that includes the majority of sequences shown. Within clade Ib sequences a tightly clustered group is shown. This cluster includes all Berlin and Germany MSM-associated sequences and a small number of sequences from Netherlands, Brazil and Belgium. Travel or household associated sequences from Germany interspersed throughout the clade Ib branch, which also includes sequences from the USA, DRC, Kenya, Uganda, India, Thailand, France, Pakistan, Sweden and Canada. Clade Ia sequences appear at the base of the tree as an outgroup.

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MATH+ Berlin Cluster of Excellence @mathplusberlin.bsky.social · 15/01/2026

new publication of MATH+ Scientists on the containment of the Mpox epidemic 2022 @nillegu.bsky.social tinyurl.com/ybykpx8b

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Deutsche Aidshilfe @deutscheaidshilfe.bsky.social · 12/01/2026

2️⃣Rascher Rückgang des #Mpox- Ausbruchs in Berlin 2022: Auch die Impfungen gegen #Mpox könnten zur Herden-Immunität beigetragen haben. Beitrag des Tagesspiegels dazu (hinter der Bezahlschranke): Notiz in Communications Medicine: www.nature.com/articles/s43...

tagesspiegel.de

Mpox-Epidemie in Berlin: Warum die Impfung nicht entscheidend war, das Virus zu stoppen

Im Sommer 2022 wurde Berlin Hotspot für die „Affenpocken“. Warum ebbte die Epidemie wieder schnell ab? Eine Studie zeigt jetzt: Die Impfkampagne hatte daran einen nur kleinen Anteil. Für Pandemien läs...

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Nils Gubela @nillegu.bsky.social · 08/01/2026

To quantify the concomitant effects of contact reductions, heavy-tailed contact network topology, and infection- vs. vaccine-derived immunity on the 2022 mpox outbreak, we calibrated an adaptive temporal contact network model (doi.org/10.1371/jour...).

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Nils Gubela @nillegu.bsky.social · 08/01/2026

The campaign has been acknowledged by the WHO (www.who.int/europe/news/..., www.who.int/europe/news/...), and surveys confirmed that people reduced contacts in summer 2022 to avoid mpox infection (doi.org/10.1186/s128...).

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Nils Gubela @nillegu.bsky.social · 08/01/2026

In 2022, almost all major European cities faced an Mpox outbreak. While waiting for vaccines, LaGeSo, sidekicks.berlin, Deutsche Aidshilfe, and their local partners launched a social media-driven information campaign. The messages were direct and memorable, like: "share cocks, not pox."

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Nils Gubela @nillegu.bsky.social · 08/01/2026

In our latest publication, we analyzed how transient reductions in contacts influenced the 2022 mpox outbreak. Read it here: www.nature.com/articles/s43...

nature.com

Client Challenge

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Nils Gubela @nillegu.bsky.social · 02/06/2025

The trick: By deriving a formula for the edge existence probability, we can employ acceptance-rejection sampling to sample infection events without constructing the whole network each time. This approach allows to sample the infection tree exactly, with significantly less computational effort! 4/5

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Nils Gubela @nillegu.bsky.social · 02/06/2025

The problem: Contact updates and the spreading process occur on similar time scales. The effort of updating the network is dominating the effort of any exact sampling algo. So, the model is nice, but it's not practically feasible for examining dynamics or performing inference. 3/5

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Nils Gubela @nillegu.bsky.social · 02/06/2025

We were interested in a model for contact networks that naturally change over time and adapt according to the state of the spreading process. When there are many (diagnosed) cases, people may reduce their interactions in anticipation of infection. 2/5

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Nils Gubela @nillegu.bsky.social · 23/04/2025

Thank you to @complenet.bsky.social for the opportunity to present! Excited to have shared my work on diseases spreading on adaptive networks.

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Nils Gubela @nillegu.bsky.social · 19/03/2025

I'm delighted that our latest research article has been published in Nature!

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Robert Koch-Institut @rki.de · 30/01/2025

📖 Neue @nature.com Publikation: Wie schnell verbreiten sich #SARSCoV2 -Varianten? Ein vom #RKI und Berliner Forschenden entwickeltes Modell zeigt, wie viele Menschen in bestimmten Regionen über einen gewissen Zeitraum empfänglich für verschiedene Virusvarianten sind. www.nature.com/articles/s41...

nature.com

SARS-CoV-2 evolution on a dynamic immune landscape - Nature

A modelling approach predicts SARS-CoV-2 variant dynamics on the basis of immunity and cross-neutralization, which was shaped by a region’s SARS-CoV-2 infection history.

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Immunology Podcast @immunologypodcast.com · 18/02/2025

How does #SARSCoV2 evolve? 🦠 A team at @freieuniversitaet.bsky.social studied how the pandemic continues to shape variant-specific population immunity. Read the @nature.com article: go.nature.com/3X0A36Z Listen to the discussion: bit.ly/4jUqeB4

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