Nick Anstead @nickanstead.bsky.social · 07/10/2026I fear we will be hearing a lot about “Kementum” in coming days, but before we attribute strategic genius to the Tories, it is worth asking why they have unveiled a load of polices aimed at LD-leaners in the South this week after months of messaging suggesting they were tacking right to ape Reform? 000
Nick Anstead @nickanstead.bsky.social · 05/10/2026The only Jeffrey Archer story I have: in sixth form we attended an economics conference which for some reason featured Archer as a speaker. At the end, he offered to sign autographs and one of my fellow students asked Archer to make it out to Mike Oxbigg. 000
Nick Anstead @nickanstead.bsky.social · 04/10/2026And, of course, the tapestry famously entirely omits any mention of the 3rd pretender to the throne, Harald Hadrada, which given the current state of the polls is a bit on the nose. 020
Nick Anstead @nickanstead.bsky.social · 04/10/2026Or Harold and the Saxons, who are more romantic and have a kind of olde England energy, but they lost because they were ill-disciplined enough to charge off down a hill at Hastings (👋 backbench Tory MPs). 1066 makes is an historical dead end for them. 100
Nick Anstead @nickanstead.bsky.social · 04/10/2026For the past 24 hours I’ve been asking myself what are they actually trying to say?!?! (Maybe giving too much credit to CCHQ staff who knocked this up in 10 mins on AI). Who is Badenoch in this metaphor? William, who wins but makes the state bigger and also very much against levelling up the North? 210
Nick Anstead @nickanstead.bsky.social · 03/10/2026Oh I had assumed it was an actual 87 foot long narrative like the real one, and this was just a tableau. And just add… this is obviously enough by itself to draw conclusions about the health of their party. 100
Nick Anstead @nickanstead.bsky.social · 03/10/2026Please tell me they have put the whole thing online somewhere???? 110
Nick Anstead @nickanstead.bsky.social · 02/10/2026A bit like the 1990s Day Today sketch with Steve Coogan, where Sinn Fein spokespeople are legally required to inhale helium balloon before doing broadcast interviews, I can now make the people on podcasts I disagree with sound like deranged chipmunks. 000
Nick Anstead @nickanstead.bsky.social · 30/09/2026Burnham’s policy prescription is ambitious and far from perfect… the triple lock change doesn’t cover the cost social care of example. But it also feels vitally important he pulls this off. If he fails then the sense of inertia it will generate in British politics will be horrendous. 000
Nick Anstead @nickanstead.bsky.social · 28/09/2026Time for a quick pre-panel coffee and Liverpool has bought its A game. 010
Nick Anstead @nickanstead.bsky.social · 27/09/2026In Liverpool for Labour Party conference, and really looking forward to speaking at the LSE / LabourList event tomorrow morning. 030
Nick Anstead @nickanstead.bsky.social · 26/09/2026But this passage explains why Andy Burnham is onto something, and to see it was warfare vs welfare is reductionist. The expansion of the welfare state in the 1940s was a key component of building the Cold War state. 000
Nick Anstead @nickanstead.bsky.social · 26/09/2026There were limits on what people would accept (postwar rationing was deeply unpopular, for example). Now the building of resilience will necessarily involve moving resources away from consumption. 100
Nick Anstead @nickanstead.bsky.social · 26/09/2026This is fascinating from the @financialtimes.com on the U.K.s preparation for crisis. The parrallel with the early Cold War is good but the key difference is that war state still appeared like a return to normality after WW2. — giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/... How resilient is Britain?giftarticle.ft.comHow resilient is Britain?As climate and geopolitical risks cast doubt on the UK’s ability to cope in a crisis, leaders are turning from ‘just in time’ to ‘just in case’ as a governing philosophy 110
Reposted by Nick AnsteadDave Vetter @davidrvetter.bsky.social · 24/09/2026Happy Kicked In The Head By A Horse Day, to all who celebrate. It's the 7th anniversary of this absolute banger. 442231730
Nick Anstead @nickanstead.bsky.social · 23/09/2026They did a podcast version a year ago, which had a different cast (Ben Wallace, Jack Straw etc). It will be interesting to see if the individuals involved make any difference to how the scenarios play out. 102
Nick Anstead @nickanstead.bsky.social · 23/09/2026What I would say is that it’s built on historic data which necessarily has gaps or very limited case data (hence wide margins of error). Industry models run simulations and this is not how this works. It was more an exercise in using historic data to see what you could build. 010
Nick Anstead @nickanstead.bsky.social · 23/09/2026Hi David - with the caveat that I know a bit of statistics but it isn’t my normal field of research - I asked it to build a predictive model using historic data. I then tested it by sub-dividing the sample and running it on part of the dataset. I ran McFadden Pseudo R2, and the results were good. 110
Nick Anstead @nickanstead.bsky.social · 23/09/2026I think a broader idea is evident here... constantly monitoring a car is way harder than just driving the damn car. Similarly, a world where humans just check things done by AIs is a pretty depressing place (vs the more enticing prospect of AI being harnessed to make our work easier). 110
Nick Anstead @nickanstead.bsky.social · 23/09/2026“It’s to early to say” – predictive analytics five games into the football season The one possibility that really intrigues with AI is the ability to talk to computers...hardboardscrookedtimbers.org“It’s to early to say” – predictive analytics five games into the football seasonThe one possibility that really intrigues with AI is the ability to talk to computers in natural language and get them to executive tasks that would otherwise be impossible to... 100
Reposted by Nick AnsteadLabourList @labourlist.bsky.social · 19/09/2026We have a whole host of excellent speakers, chaired by Prof. Tony Travers CBE, including: 🔴 @nickanstead.bsky.social, LSE 🔴 @johnmct.bsky.social, Burson Global 🔴 Scarlett Maguire, Merlin Strategy 🔴 Charlotte Beeden, 411 🔴 Gordon McKee MP, Member of Parliament for Glasgow South 001
Nick Anstead @nickanstead.bsky.social · 17/09/2026One the one hand, 🇬🇧 Youth Parliament sitting in the Commons & reducing a certain type of (normally Con) MP to apoplectic spluttering was probably worth every penny. But maybe these resources are better spent on wider initiatives for more people, eg school councils? www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...bbc.co.ukUK Youth Parliament looks set to be axedSome say scrapping the parliament for 11 to 18-year-olds would be a blow for democracy, while others say it is overdue. 000
Nick Anstead @nickanstead.bsky.social · 15/09/2026Communicating the response to these is vital, but comms strategies have to layered on top of effective and coherent ideological and policy responses. I'm going to be at Labour conference in a couple of weeks talking about these ideas at the LabourList/ LSE panel on the fringe (details below!)[2/2] 000
Nick Anstead @nickanstead.bsky.social · 15/09/2026I've just had this piece published on the @labourlist blog about the political communication challenges facing Andy Burnham's government. The big argument is that the government faces deep structural challenges [1/2] labourlist.org/2026/09/spon...labourlist.orgSPONSORED: ‘Communicating in an age of political crisis’ – LabourListSPONSORED Developing an effective political communication strategy is core to any attempt to renew the fortunes of the Labour government in office. But for that… 100
Reposted by Nick AnsteadHassinator @hassinator.bsky.social · 13/09/2026a great letter in the times today. perhaps worth sharing in these troubled times. #RNLI #heroes 4059812392
Reposted by Nick AnsteadCarl Quintanilla @carlquintanilla.bsky.social · 11/09/2026Burns. 252178384293
Nick Anstead @nickanstead.bsky.social · 11/09/2026FWIW, I’m surprised that the conquest has such a positive response, given the long-embedded idea of a Norman yoke in English culture, so maybe that is an interesting finding. 010
Nick Anstead @nickanstead.bsky.social · 11/09/2026Perhaps the sneering is aimed more at deploying a polling method for this, which necessitates categorical responses to questions that defy catergorical answers? 111
Nick Anstead @nickanstead.bsky.social · 08/09/2026Interesting. But also true to say that #bluesky has not replaced it (still more traffic on X, even in its reduced form). Would be interesting to see LinkedIn numbers, but maybe we are just less social now than we were previously. 152
Nick Anstead @nickanstead.bsky.social · 03/09/2026It might also act as a corrective. One Burnham counterfactual is if he had stood in Gorton and Denton (a more left-leaning constituency) whether it would have changed his political brand? Now he will, quite quickly after assuming office, have to pivot to protecting his left flank. 000
Nick Anstead @nickanstead.bsky.social · 03/09/2026This by-election is obviously a potential banana skin for Burnham, but also a massive opportunity. If he sees off Polanski, he can then claim (in combo with his Makerfield win) to have secured both flanks of Labour’s coalition. www.theguardian.com/politics/202... 100
Nick Anstead @nickanstead.bsky.social · 03/09/2026This very much opens up the possibility of “impact, but evil impact”.static.klipy.comKermit and Dark Kermit MemeAlt: Kermit and Dark Kermit Meme 140
Nick Anstead @nickanstead.bsky.social · 02/09/2026A good, time saving use of AI at the start of term: screen capturing my timetables from the LSE servers, then asking Claude to create the ICS file, which I can then drop straight into my calendar. 020
Nick Anstead @nickanstead.bsky.social · 01/09/2026Is the implication of this answer that Burnham believes a manifesto commitment and an parliamentary majority is a sufficient mandate for electoral reform? Eg. No referendum required? (Obviously this was always the position in the past, at least pre-2010). 020
Nick Anstead @nickanstead.bsky.social · 29/08/2026Andrew Roberts must have done something to really upset the headline writers at @telegraph.co.uk to get lumbered with this one. 2382
Nick Anstead @nickanstead.bsky.social · 29/08/2026Obviously everyone is most worried about the Skynet scenario but has anyone considered the possibility of societal breakdown triggered by AI instigating non-stop petty and socially awkward slights? Let’s call it the Larry David singularity. www.theguardian.com/commentisfre... 010
Nick Anstead @nickanstead.bsky.social · 28/08/2026I’m calling it now… we need a less brooding Bond reboot and more of this…static.klipy.comRoger Moore James Bond SmirkAlt: Roger Moore James Bond Smirk 2263
Nick Anstead @nickanstead.bsky.social · 28/08/2026Smiths nostalgia isn’t just for the 1980s, but also for late 90s/ early 00s indie clubs with sticky dance floors. This phenomenon goes a long way to explaining the continued resonance of WW2 in 🇬🇧 politics, even though you’d need to be in your 90s to remember 1945. 030
Nick Anstead @nickanstead.bsky.social · 28/08/2026This is a great article from Zoe Williams in the Guardian. I think she hits on something important, which is nostalgia is not only for those who lived through things, but also for those who just missed them. www.theguardian.com/music/2026/a...theguardian.comBigmouth strums again: was Andy Burnham’s Smiths jam in Kyiv the perfect soundtrack to a Britain in freefall?The UK prime minister clearly still adores the band. Perhaps he’s attracted to songs about sham justice and murderous meat factories, shot through with nihilism and exquisite despair 111
Reposted by Nick AnsteadTangerine Twit Troll @tangerinetwittroll.bsky.social · 27/08/2026Who knew the Canadians could play the same game? 622290569
Reposted by Nick AnsteadAlex Zalben @azalben.bsky.social · 25/08/2026Dolly Parton, among a thousand other amazing things she did in her life, gifted over 330 million books to kids through her Imagination Library program. Her passing is a tremendous loss to the world, but you can support the program today to keep it going imaginationlibrary.comimaginationlibrary.comDolly Parton's Imagination Library | USA, UK, IE, CA, AUDolly Parton’s Imagination Library is a book gifting program that mails free books to children from birth until they begin school in participating areas. 45121535979
Nick Anstead @nickanstead.bsky.social · 24/08/2026This is a huge blind spot, as it is surely this institutional architecture, far more than any individual academic, which decides what research is done and which is not. 020
Nick Anstead @nickanstead.bsky.social · 24/08/2026Whether you regard the debate about academic freedom as sincere or not (and there clearly is a real debate to be had about it as a topic), it is a big wrinkle that we tend to ignore the institutional dimension - there is a lot of talk about individuals but not much about departments or centres. 120
Nick Anstead @nickanstead.bsky.social · 14/08/2026One of the core puzzles of Trumpism is that he has somehow maintained a coalition which must include a large number of moderate Republicans (whatever that now means in practice). Pesumably one issue is they only have the Dems as an alternative, unlike the UK where such voters can go Tory or LD. 240
Nick Anstead @nickanstead.bsky.social · 14/08/2026If you haven’t heard of it - I hadn’t before it appeared on the BFI schedule - this is Privilege, a kind of weird combination of Hard Day’s Night, If and Farenheit 451. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Privile...en.wikipedia.orgPrivilege (film) - Wikipedia 000
Nick Anstead @nickanstead.bsky.social · 14/08/2026I saw 1967 film Privilege at the #BFI last night, which encouraged me to look into the acting credits of Paul Jones. And, with all due respect to Christopher Nolan, this is surely the Ancient Greek adaption we need in our lives right now. 100
Reposted by Nick AnsteadChris Hanretty @chanret.bsky.social · 13/08/2026I have signed this petition. If you're a UK resident, I think you should do so too 65336