iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Nick Silkstone @nick-silkstone.bsky.social · 20/07/2026

Will you be recording the session? Apologies I'm unable to make it live, but it sounds really interesting! Many thanks in advance. 😀

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Nick Silkstone @nick-silkstone.bsky.social · 15/07/2026

Tomorrow's data will likely set yet another high mark, with this record only lasting a day.

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Nick Silkstone @nick-silkstone.bsky.social · 15/07/2026

If you live in the Central England region, you've just experienced the hottest 28 day / 4 week temperature on record (records beck to the year 1772). Beating the previous set in 1976! This is as measured by the mean daily CET series published by the @metoffice.gov.uk, and a 28 day trailing mean.

Central England Temperature series, top 10 days for trailing 28 day average. 14 July 2026 is now top with 20.66 C

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Nick Silkstone @nick-silkstone.bsky.social · 30/06/2026

Thanks very much @sryanbruen.bsky.social, that means a lot coming from you. You have so much information, and with it produce many superb summary tables (Irish heat waves etc..) that I genuinely don't think anyone else could do! 👏

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Nick Silkstone @nick-silkstone.bsky.social · 29/06/2026

Apologies, I was not clear, these are normalised. So the no. of extreme occurrences in most bars are divided by 10 years (so average number per year), the 2021-2026 bar is divided by ~5.5 years (to achieve the same) per year result. 🙂

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Nick Silkstone @nick-silkstone.bsky.social · 29/06/2026

The whole daily mean UK CET record. 1st and 99th %iles computed, then plotting how many days per year (within each decade) do days <1st %ile and >99th %ile occur. This allows analysis of the occurrence of the extremes), styled like the population pyramids I remember from GSCE Geography. #RStats

Met Office Hadley Centre Daily Mean Central England Temperature dataset, 1st and 99th percentiles computed, and then their occurrence per year within each decade plotted in the style of a population pyramid.

Through time, this shows a marked decrease in the occurrences in extreme cold, and in the most recent few decades a marked increase of the extreme hot days.

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Nick Silkstone @nick-silkstone.bsky.social · 27/06/2026

The recent #UK extreme #heatwave in context. The daily mean Central England Temperature (CET) record extends back to the year 1771. In dataset of 92,949 dates, the last 4 days in the series have all fallen into the top 20 of all time. The CET area has never seen anything like this in >250 years. 🔥

A table showing the top 20 hottest days in the Central England Temperature mean daily temperatures dataset back to the year 1771.

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Nick Silkstone @nick-silkstone.bsky.social · 16/05/2026

Playing with the 1851-2023 #hurdat database in #RStudio this evening, it's amazing how is crunches through millions of observations in 32 variables within a split second to produce geospatial plots. Atlantic tropical cyclone, #hurricane, and major hurricane heat maps (note the different scales)

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Nick Silkstone @nick-silkstone.bsky.social · 28/04/2026

Love this Jamie, superb plot and axis choices. 😍

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Nick Silkstone @nick-silkstone.bsky.social · 14/04/2026

Thanks for the initial post by @doomhamwx.bsky.social on the EarthCARE direct overpass of #TyphoonSinlaku on 13 April 2026. I really enjoyed learning about the instrument and doing some brief analysis of this plot. The caveat being I think this is only the 2nd such image I have seen of a TC. 😄

EarthCARE overpass of Typhoon Sinlaku on the 13 April 2026. Analysis done on the reflectivity plot from the CPR instrument.

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Nick Silkstone @nick-silkstone.bsky.social · 31/01/2026

Egyptian Goose, really distinctive look! www.rspb.org.uk/birds-and-wi...

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Nick Silkstone @nick-silkstone.bsky.social · 29/06/2025

A great #noctilucent #cloud display across Europe and the UK tonight (including Devon) These clouds are above 250,000 FT high (a commercial aircraft flies around 35,000 FT for reference) and are most commonly seen in mid-latitudes in mid-summer. #meteorology

An image of noctilucent cloud looking northwest above Cranbrook, Devon on the 39 June 2025

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Nick Silkstone @nick-silkstone.bsky.social · 19/03/2025

Keeping up with the potential tropical depression / storm development between the Malay Peninsula / Borneo. A satellite derived surface wind field (from 19/16:30 UTC) suggests it's close to being a tropical depression at 0 deg. Slightly inconclusive on the east side of the circulation for now.

Oceansat-3 pass of showing the satellite derived surface wind field between the Malay Peninsula and Borneo at 16:30 UTC on the 19 March 2025, with the Infrared image (at the same time) in the background.

It shows the circulation (located at 0 degrees north) is very close to becoming closed off and becoming a tropical depression....it might already be at that point. This area will drift north and northeast in the coming days, it will be interesting to see what happens.

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Nick Silkstone @nick-silkstone.bsky.social · 18/03/2025

Regardless of development of not, an extreme rainfall event is likely for the southern Malay Peninsula (inc Singapore) in the coming 3-4 days. The ECWMF EFI for precipitation between Wednesday and Saturday >0.9, and the Shift of Tails (how extreme is the extreme) is >3 (compared to March climate).

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Nick Silkstone @nick-silkstone.bsky.social · 18/03/2025

The GFS model remains keen on generating a tropical depression between the Malay Peninsula and Borneo at <2 deg of latitude. This last occurred in 2004 when Vamei reached tropical storm / typhoon strength (disputed), such events are estimated to have a 100-400 year return period. Interesting to 👀

Screenshort of the GFS model on Thursday 20 March at 23:00 UTC. Showing a closed 1010hPa isobar around a surface low 1009hPa between the Malay Peninsula and Borneo.

This unusual signal at such so latitudes is a consequence of the ambient wind field and the shape of the coastline and topography in the region. Under the right conditions of a cold surge from the northeast, and westerly wind burst associated with the MJO to the south the region the ambient cyclonic vorticity can be enough to allow a compact tropical cyclone to form in this tiny expanse of tropical water (lee than 2 deg from the equator).

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Nick Silkstone @nick-silkstone.bsky.social · 03/03/2025

You're welcome. Most UV level forecasts that you get through websites and apps only assume a constant value of ozone (the climate average), and adjust UV per forecast cloud cover. But in reality UV can be a little different owing to fluctuations in ozone too.

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Nick Silkstone @nick-silkstone.bsky.social · 02/03/2025

Unusually low column ozone and clear skies over the UK again today (Sunday), see ozone anomaly forecast below. UV levels will be higher than normal for the time off year. I got a little sunburn yesterday, so will take the suncream out today. Enjoy! ☀️

Forecast column ozone anomaly, showing before average ozone across the UK on Sunday 02/03/25.

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Nick Silkstone @nick-silkstone.bsky.social · 27/02/2025

Such terrible news. 😢 All the best to all NWS / NOAA employees past and present from the other side of the pond. We appreciate all you do.

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Nick Silkstone @nick-silkstone.bsky.social · 08/02/2025

I got the feeling the scientists were not happy / sure it was the correct route, but the pressure came from elsewhere. They are still producing the plots, and offered me a weekly email update service (via work), which I've taken them up on. I gave them feedback about the usefulness of the plots.

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Nick Silkstone @nick-silkstone.bsky.social · 08/02/2025

I got in touch with BoM about the reduction of information. Their success at messaging ENSO and IOD typical impacts (in recent decades), meant they were finding that media and people were using the status as both to make a crude seasonal forecast, and the actual seasonal forecast was overlooked.

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Nick Silkstone @nick-silkstone.bsky.social · 01/02/2025

Thank you @kerriedoodles.bsky.social. I know they are usually seen at temperatures < -20°C, from ice cloud / fog at the surface. In this case the only <- 20 temps were many km up! My main regret is having no tripod as it was half an hour into walking the dog when I noticed them. 😄

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Nick Silkstone @nick-silkstone.bsky.social · 29/01/2025

These are formed when ground based light sources are reflected by ice crystals (in this case in high cloud) between the observer (me) and the light sources (unknown). Amazing to see, shame I was walking the dog and could only shoot handheld with my phone's camera. Any thoughts or ideas?

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Nick Silkstone @nick-silkstone.bsky.social · 29/01/2025

It looks like I saw the optical phenomenon of light pillars at 20:00 UTC 29 Jan 2025 in Devon, UK this evening. Vertical pillars of white light that really stood out in the sky for brightness and dead straightness of the lines.

Image of light pillars from Cranbrook, Devon

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Nick Silkstone @nick-silkstone.bsky.social · 25/01/2025

Fantastic work Bruce, it's great to see the table and the rankings. 👏 Do you think the missing obs were linked to power failure in the event? Even if the stations have backups (so the data is not lost), I know a number of them use the mobile network to transmit data.

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Nick Silkstone @nick-silkstone.bsky.social · 23/01/2025

This could be the equivalent of a 1987 magnitude event for western parts of Ireland. But nothing like that for England, Wales and Scotland (where high winds gusts are now common).

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Nick Silkstone @nick-silkstone.bsky.social · 23/01/2025

#Meteorology makes such a difference to where aeroplanes fly. ✈️ Here a strong W'ly jet stream across the mid-Atlantic (linked to #StormEowyn) causes all the traffic from Europe going to North America to head well to the north. Whereas the traffic the other way enjoys a jet assisted ride back! 💨

A screengrab from FlightRadar24 showing aircraft across the North Atlantic at 12:00 UTC on the 23 January 2025.

Almost all of the westbound traffic is forced well north, flying the great circle over southern Greenland to be as fuel efficient as possible. Whereas the eastbound traffic is in the stream enjoying the tailwind back to Europe.

Only a few business jets which often fly 10,000 FT higher than commercial airlines, so are able to get above the strongest jet stream winds are braving a westbound crossing around 50 degrees north.

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Nick Silkstone @nick-silkstone.bsky.social · 23/01/2025

Agreed, I analyse the majority of the rapid dependers in the North Atlantic as having some Shapiro Keyser characteristics. I find it a spectrum, some are S-K / Norwegian hybrids, posessing elements of both models at various points in their development.

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Nick Silkstone @nick-silkstone.bsky.social · 23/01/2025

The next low following Eowyn goes through its main deepening stage in the mid-Atlantic. So it will be nowhere near as potent when it reaches Ireland at the weekend. But winds likely strong enough to hinder recovery efforts.

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Nick Silkstone @nick-silkstone.bsky.social · 22/01/2025

Unfortunately the first low pressure is now named Storm Eowyn. Pretty significant impacts (lots of power outages) look likely for Ireland and parts of the UK.

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Nick Silkstone @nick-silkstone.bsky.social · 21/01/2025

Thanks Paul for all you've done in recent years. I enjoyed your forecasts and sorry discussions whenever they were issued, but fully understand the rationale behind the decision.

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Nick Silkstone @nick-silkstone.bsky.social · 20/01/2025

I think there is a good chance of several named storms (when including Ireland), although still a small chance the worst of all could just about miss to the northwest. 🤞

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Nick Silkstone @nick-silkstone.bsky.social · 20/01/2025

A jet-stream fired up by the current North American coldwave will lead to a phenomenon known as a "Cyclone Family" in the North Atlantic. Multiple deep low pressure areas develop and take a similar track late January (close to the British Isles) More info: www.nature.com/articles/s41...

A map from the GFS weather model showing MSLP and jet stream strength at 00:00 UTC on Sunday 26 January 2025 across the North Atlantic. Three areas of low pressure (a cyclone family) can be seen simultaneously at various phases of their development.

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Nick Silkstone @nick-silkstone.bsky.social · 15/01/2025

Welcome to Bluesky Helen. I really enjoyed following you on Twitter before I left the platform last year. Looking forward to seeing your amazing creativity here too!

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Nick Silkstone @nick-silkstone.bsky.social · 14/01/2025

The area shaded in darker blue / purple in the left hand image, indicates the extent of the very unusual / extreme cold around the nadir of the event on Tuesday 21 January 2025.

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Nick Silkstone @nick-silkstone.bsky.social · 14/01/2025

A #coldwave is forecast for the central US from the weekend into the middle of next week. Extending all the way to the Gulf of Mexico and northeastern Mexico. ECMWF forecasts suggest maximum temperatures for Austin, Texas, may be more than 20 C (36 F) below normal early next week.

$ECMWF Ensemble Meteogram for daily maximum and minimum temperatures for Austin, Texas.\ Showing a coldwave from Sunday 19 January to Thursday 23 January with temperatures often 15-20 C below average during this time.$

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Nick Silkstone @nick-silkstone.bsky.social · 10/01/2025

That you Celia. I loved it, felt like a day trip to another world, such was the contrast from my muddy neighborhood!

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Nick Silkstone @nick-silkstone.bsky.social · 10/01/2025

Thank you. It was beautiful, but very cold with quite a wind on the top (even drifting snow). Full winter gear, gloves and buff required!

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Nick Silkstone @nick-silkstone.bsky.social · 10/01/2025

For sure, we probably are slightly worse than you on daylight hours ... 08:15am for the sunrise today! What bike do you ride?

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Nick Silkstone @nick-silkstone.bsky.social · 10/01/2025

I love all the seasons, although our seasons are much more damped than Canadian ones. 3 days of snow on the ground across the whole season is exceptionally snowy for lower areas of SW England. 😄

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Nick Silkstone @nick-silkstone.bsky.social · 09/01/2025

Snow didn't settle in Exeter this week, so I popped up to #Dartmoor to get me #snow fix before it all melted. I drove to South Zeal, about 25 mins from Exeter, and walked up Cosdon Beacon (550 m) with Ollie 🐾 About 10-15cm, deep drifts, and rime on vegetation above 450m. A top afternoon out!

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Nick Silkstone @nick-silkstone.bsky.social · 05/01/2025

Loving geography so much, I came across these gift cards in Totnes a few years back using playing cards from the 1920s Jacques card game "The Countries of England" collections.vam.ac.uk/item/O26764/... I've framed up two from the area I grew up. A lovely vintage piece of art. 😄

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Nick Silkstone @nick-silkstone.bsky.social · 01/01/2025

With programmes on #BBC #Radio4 celebrating the centenary of the #ShippingForecast today. I thought I'd reshare the shipping forecast themed map I produced from the #30DayMapChallenge back in November.

A map showing the Shipping Forecast areas and names around the UK and eastern Atlantic.

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Nick Silkstone @nick-silkstone.bsky.social · 31/12/2024

Hi Al, It's available via CEDA as .CSV data (works in excel) in annual blocks back to 1961 (a bit fiddly to find) You have to register / login, but it's free and open data. Let me know if any problems. 🙂 data.ceda.ac.uk/badc/ukmo-mi...

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Nick Silkstone @nick-silkstone.bsky.social · 31/12/2024

Great points Arwyn. 👏 In 2022 there were nearly 1 million people receiving domiciliary care from professionals! We've set up the UK on the assumption all the key infrastructure / assets will be open / available / safe all the time. When they aren't, things don't function. Very interesting.

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Nick Silkstone @nick-silkstone.bsky.social · 30/12/2024

#Snowdays? My family thinks snowfall that would cause few issues in the 1970s, cause carnage today. Why? My theory: Schools, H&S of the school site, & safety of pupil/staff travel. Many teachers commute greater distances now than in 1970, rendering safe travel more challenging. Data, thoughts?

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Nick Silkstone @nick-silkstone.bsky.social · 28/12/2024

Confidence is now high for cold weather across parts of Western / Northwestern Europe in early January 2025. Here is a look at the forecast broad regime through the start of the period, and meteogram for London showing the forecast max / min. Compared to recent weeks, it will be notably #cold!

An info graphic showing the forecast:

In the top left a ECMWF meteogram for London shows a period of well below average temperatures being the most probable outcome between the 3rd and 10th of January.

The rest of the image shows the broad pattern, characterised by the ridge over Greenland and trough over Scandinavia, which favours northerly flow into the UK and much of Western Europe.

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