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Nicholas Fenton

@nicholasfenton.bsky.social
207 followers 311 following 49 posts

Associate Director and Associate Fellow at the Europe, Russia, and Eurasia Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). Views my own. Follows and reposts do not equal endorsements.

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Nicholas Fenton @nicholasfenton.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
I spoke again with @glanktree.bsky.social and @politico.eu about Russia's efforts at sanctions circumvention and military reconstitution. Chinese firms continue to supply the Russian war machine that is escalating its strikes on Ukraine www.politico.eu/article/russ...
politico.eu
Russia’s secret plan to supercharge kamikaze drone production
Documents obtained by POLITICO show a Russian state company blueprint for increasing drone carbon fiber production as the Kremlin escalates air war over Europe.
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Reposted by Nicholas Fenton
msnegovaya.bsky.social @msnegovaya.bsky.social · 31/08/2026
Happy to share my @financialtimes.com op-ed on Russia’s wartime adaptation. Moscow is rebuilding its military around Soviet-era industrial capacity, drones, compact EW systems, and low-cost technologies deployed at scale. Thanks to @sambendett.bsky.social for contributing: www.ft.com/content/3695...
ft.com
Don’t write off Russia’s defence industry yet
Moscow’s arms manufacturers are adapting and innovating in ways that could threaten Nato in the future
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Nicholas Fenton @nicholasfenton.bsky.social · 04/08/2026
I recently spoke with @glanktree.bsky.social at @politico.eu about Russia's ongoing efforts to circumvent Western sanctions www.politico.eu/article/russ...
politico.eu
Russia importing sensitive UK, EU tech through India, data shows
Researchers tracked around 50,000 sensitive and dual-use goods reaching Russia via India since the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, raising questions as Britain and the EU deepen trade ties with New Delhi…
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Nicholas Fenton @nicholasfenton.bsky.social · 15/07/2026
While Russia is currently facing tactical setbacks on the battlefield, its defense industry is unlikely to slow its efforts anytime soon. Rather, Russia is going to continue to prioritize reconstituting its forces, both to supply its troops in Ukraine, and threaten NATO. 3/
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Nicholas Fenton @nicholasfenton.bsky.social · 15/07/2026
We present case studies of 5 key Russian defense firms to describe how Moscow's war machine has worked to expand production of critical systems, despite significant challenges. 2/
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Nicholas Fenton @nicholasfenton.bsky.social · 15/07/2026
New report from me, @msnegovaya.bsky.social, Tina Dolbaia, @sambendett.bsky.social, @maxbergmann.bsky.social, and Cory Woodall looking at how the Russian defense industry has adapted and evolved since 2022 www.csis.org/analysis/reb... 1/
csis.org
Rebuilding to Reconquer: Can Russia’s Defense Firms Deliver?
After four years of war, Russia’s defense industrial base has significantly reshaped, creating an asymmetric threat to NATO: It can rapidly scale production of weapons proven on the battlefield, combi...
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Reposted by Nicholas Fenton
msnegovaya.bsky.social @msnegovaya.bsky.social · 14/07/2026
Excited to share our new @erep.csis.org report! Through an in-depth study of key Russian defense firms (UVZ, Almaz-Antey, KRET, Kalashnikov & Ushkuynik), we find that Russia has sustained a wartime production tempo across key defense sectors while rebuilding its military www.csis.org/analysis/reb...
csis.org
Rebuilding to Reconquer: Can Russia’s Defense Firms Deliver?
After four years of war, Russia’s defense industrial base has significantly reshaped, creating an asymmetric threat to NATO: It can rapidly scale production of weapons proven on the battlefield, combi...
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Reposted by Nicholas Fenton
CSIS Europe, Russia, and Eurasia Program @erep.csis.org · 17/04/2026
New comprehensive analysis explores how Russian and Iranian aspirations for North–South trade fits into Russia's grand strategy and the Kremlin's push to expand its economic ties with the Global South. ✍️ @msnegovaya.bsky.social @nicholasfenton.bsky.social + Tina Dolbaia www.csis.org/analysis/res...
csis.org
Resilience Through Linkage: Russia, Iran, and Aspirations for North–South Trade
The study identifies a clear Russian and Iranian commitment to creating a north–south trade route that could bypass Western sanctions. The report evaluates the route’s potential to reshape the U.S.-do...
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Reposted by Nicholas Fenton
CSIS Europe, Russia, and Eurasia Program @erep.csis.org · 16/04/2026
"For both Russia and Iran, the corridor could provide additional economic growth, international influence, and a critical infrastructure network less exposed to the impact of Western sanctions," write @msnegovaya.bsky.social Tina Dolbaia, and @nicholasfenton.bsky.social www.csis.org/analysis/res...
csis.org
Resilience Through Linkage: Russia, Iran, and Aspirations for North–South Trade
The study identifies a clear Russian and Iranian commitment to creating a north–south trade route that could bypass Western sanctions. The report evaluates the route’s potential to reshape the U.S.-do...
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Nicholas Fenton @nicholasfenton.bsky.social · 16/04/2026
New report from me, @msnegovaya.bsky.social, and Tina Dolbaia for @erep.csis.org on the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC). We discuss how the route fits into Russia's grand strategy and push to expand its economic ties with the Global South. www.csis.org/analysis/res...
csis.org
Resilience Through Linkage: Russia, Iran, and Aspirations for North–South Trade
The study identifies a clear Russian and Iranian commitment to creating a north–south trade route that could bypass Western sanctions. The report evaluates the route’s potential to reshape the U.S.-do...
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Nicholas Fenton @nicholasfenton.bsky.social · 23/01/2026
New piece from me, @steinbergf.bsky.social, and Emily Benson on the possible economic measures the EU could take to respond to future U.S. threats to Greenland www.csis.org/analysis/how...
csis.org
How Could Europe Respond to Future U.S. Threats to Greenland?
If the Trump administration returns to using threats of economic coercion to pressure Europeans over the territorial status of Greenland, the European Union has a range of economic tools at its dispos...
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Reposted by Nicholas Fenton
CSIS Europe, Russia, and Eurasia Program @erep.csis.org · 22/01/2026
NEW: @drjademcglynn.bsky.social joined #RussianRoulette to discuss her new, in-depth analysis on Ukrainian resistance in the Russian-occupied territories of Ukraine. Link to listen below. 🎙️ @maxbergmann.bsky.social @msnegovaya.bsky.social www.csis.org/podcasts/rus...
csis.org
Thresholds of Survival: The Latest Report on Ukrainian Resistance to Russian Occupation by Jade McGlynn | Russian Roulette | CSIS Podcasts
Max and Maria spoke with Jade McGlynn about her latest report on Ukrainian resistance in the Russian occupied territories of Ukraine.
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Reposted by Nicholas Fenton
CSIS Europe, Russia, and Eurasia Program @erep.csis.org · 23/01/2026
The EU could impose meaningful economic costs through trade, investment controls, and regulation if red lines are crossed in #Greenland. @steinbergf.bsky.social @nicholasfenton.bsky.social + Emily Benson explore how the EU could respond with force to US threats, below: www.csis.org/analysis/how...
csis.org
How Could Europe Respond to Future U.S. Threats to Greenland?
If the Trump administration returns to using threats of economic coercion to pressure Europeans over the territorial status of Greenland, the European Union has a range of economic tools at its dispos...
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Nicholas Fenton @nicholasfenton.bsky.social · 22/01/2026
I spoke w/ @lanacioncom.bsky.social on Russia's limited ability to support the Iranian government as it battles internal protests and external threats. Russian resources are bogged down in Ukraine, so Moscow currently can only offer Tehran words/diplomatic cover www.lanacion.com.ar/el-mundo/por...
lanacion.com.ar
Por qué un posible ataque contra Irán mantiene al mundo en vilo: redes terroristas, alianzas globales y la amenaza nuclear
Después de semanas de desafíos interno y externos, el régimen de los ayatollahs confirmó que sostiene su poder para inyectar inestabilidad en su región y en el mundo
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Nicholas Fenton @nicholasfenton.bsky.social · 09/09/2025
Check out the recent brief from me, @msnegovaya.bsky.social, and Tina Dolbaia on the differing patterns of economic engagement between China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea as part of an ongoing effort to understand the "CRINK" states from @geopolitics.csis.org www.csis.org/analysis/cri...
csis.org
CRINK Economic Ties: Uneven Patterns of Collaboration
This brief explores the post-2022 economic ties among China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea—the so-called CRINK states.
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Nicholas Fenton @nicholasfenton.bsky.social · 04/09/2025
My thoughts on the recent diplomatic efforts to land a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine in @tovimagr.bsky.social www.tovima.gr/2025/08/23/w...
tovima.gr
«Ο Πούτιν πιέζει, το Κίεβο αντέχει» – Αναζητούνται πραγματικές «εγγυήσεις ασφαλείας» | ΤΟ ΒΗΜΑ
Ο Νίκολας Φέντον, πολιτικός επιστήμονας, ειδικός σε ζητήματα Ρωσίας και Ουκρανίας εξηγεί στο «Βήμα» την προοπτική περί παροχής εγγυήσεων ασφαλείας «τύπου άρθρου 5 του ΝΑΤΟ» στην Ουκρανία.
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Nicholas Fenton @nicholasfenton.bsky.social · 04/09/2025
Some recent comments from me in @lexpress.fr on the Russian defense industry www.lexpress.fr/monde/a-ce-s...
lexpress.fr
"A ce stade, on ne peut pas faire face" : comment l'industrie de défense russe menace l’Europe
Les capacités de production russes ont massivement augmenté depuis le début de la guerre. Dans quelques années, le Kremlin disposera d’une puissance de feu inédite.
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Nicholas Fenton @nicholasfenton.bsky.social · 15/08/2025
I had the chance to speak with @scrippsnews.bsky.social about how Russia's grinding progress on the battlefields of Ukraine is affecting Putin's calculus headed into today's summit in Alaska www.scrippsnews.com/politics/rus...
scrippsnews.com
Trump and Putin tackle Ukraine conflict in Anchorage without Zelenskyy
Trump is set to meet Putin in Alaska to discuss the Ukraine conflict, but Zelenskyy is absent. Expectations for a peace deal are tempered amid high tensions.
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Nicholas Fenton @nicholasfenton.bsky.social · 14/08/2025
New comments from me in @reuters.com about tomorrow's Trump-Putin Alaska summit www.reuters.com/world/europe...
reuters.com
Which Donald Trump will negotiate with Putin in Alaska?
When U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin met in Helsinki in 2018, the pair alarmed allies with a friendly encounter where Trump sided with the Russian leader over his own intelligence agencies on election interference.
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Nicholas Fenton @nicholasfenton.bsky.social · 12/08/2025
Comments from me in @thedispatchmedia.bsky.social about the upcoming Trump-Putin summit, and what Putin might be thinking heading into the big meeting in Alaska thedispatch.com/newsletter/m...
thedispatch.com
A High-Stakes Meeting in Alaska
Russia and Ukraine both have a lot on the line in Friday’s Trump-Putin summit.
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Nicholas Fenton @nicholasfenton.bsky.social · 08/08/2025
My comments yesterday for La Repubblica on the upcoming Trump-Putin summit www.repubblica.it/esteri/2025/...
repubblica.it
L’analista Usa: “Servono più pressioni su Putin, non cercare risultati a tutti i costi”
Parla Nicholas Fenton, direttore aggiunto del Programma Europa, Russia ed Eurasia del Center for Strategic Studies. “Il presidente russo sogna una nuova Yalta,…
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Nicholas Fenton @nicholasfenton.bsky.social · 06/08/2025
My thoughts on the recent online dust-up between Trump and Medvedev in @correiocb.bsky.social (PT) www.correiobraziliense.com.br/mundo/2025/0...
correiobraziliense.com.br
Trump eleva ameaça contra Rússia e mobiliza submarinos nucleares
Presidente norte-americano anuncia o envio de dois submarinos nucleares para 'regiões apropriadas', em resposta a comentários 'provocativos' de Dmitri Medvedev, número dois do Conselho de Segurança do...
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Nicholas Fenton @nicholasfenton.bsky.social · 04/08/2025
New piece in @foreignpolicy.com from me and @msnegovaya.bsky.social outlining why sanctions on Russia matter and ways to tighten them. Russia's economic adaptation since 2022 has been impressive, but there are real issues that tougher sanctions could exploit foreignpolicy.com/2025/08/04/t...
foreignpolicy.com
What the Next Round of Sanctions Against Russia Should Look Like
Moscow has successfully restructured its economy on an impressive war footing, but there are weaknesses under the hood.
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Reposted by Nicholas Fenton
CSIS Europe, Russia, and Eurasia Program @erep.csis.org · 04/08/2025
🚨 NEW: @nicholasfenton.bsky.social & @msnegovaya.bsky.social argue in @foreignpolicy.com that economic statecraft alone is not enough to slow Russia's war effort––weapons & intelligence support for Ukraine remains key to forcing Moscow to negotiate in good faith ⬇️ foreignpolicy.com/2025/08/04/t...
foreignpolicy.com
What the Next Round of Sanctions Against Russia Should Look Like
Moscow has successfully restructured its economy on an impressive war footing, but there are weaknesses under the hood.
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Reposted by Nicholas Fenton
CSIS Europe, Russia, and Eurasia Program @erep.csis.org · 29/07/2025
✍️ Then and now, a containment strategy seeks to check Moscow’s power & avoid a direct conflict. Today, replicating Kennan’s approach in Europe is not enough—new times call for new thinking. 📌 @maxbergmann.bsky.social @msnegovaya.bsky.social @hannanotte.bsky.social Michael Kimmage + Jeffrey Mankoff
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msnegovaya.bsky.social @msnegovaya.bsky.social · 31/07/2025
With Russia set to challenge the West for years to come, what’s the best long-term strategy? Our new @erep.csis.org report explores the need for a renewed approach—potentially a modern take on Cold War-era containment. Please read, comment and share! 🔗 www.csis.org/analysis/lon...
csis.org
A Long-Term Russia Strategy for Europe
No matter the outcome in Ukraine, Russia will remain a strategic threat to Europe and European interests. A European containment strategy reworked for the particularities of the present can help Europ...
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Nicholas Fenton @nicholasfenton.bsky.social · 25/07/2025
My thoughts in @newsweek.com about the potential risks/challenges from U.S. "secondary tariffs" on purchasers of Russian hydrocarbon exports. To increase pressure on Russia, policymakers should target the financial/shipment firms that enable Russian sales www.newsweek.com/us-sanctions...
newsweek.com
How US sanctions on Russian oil could send prices soaring for Americans
Speaking to Newsweek, experts outlined the impact of potential sanctions on Russian oil.
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Nicholas Fenton @nicholasfenton.bsky.social · 23/07/2025
Got the chance to talk about the Russian economy, banking system, and sanctions with @news.dw.com alongside my fantastic colleague, Tina Dolbaia www.youtube.com/watch?v=1qca...
youtube.com
Жесткие санкции и милитаризация: как экономика России справляется на третий год войны?
YouTube video by DW на русском
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Nicholas Fenton @nicholasfenton.bsky.social · 15/07/2025
Recently had the chance to speak with @thedispatchmedia.bsky.social about the current state of the Russian economy, the potential for new sanctions on Russia, and how Moscow looks at this current phase of the war in Ukraine thedispatch.com/newsletter/m...
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CSIS | Center for Strategic & International Studies @csis.org · 14/07/2025
NEWS | @erep.csis.org expert @maxbergmann.bsky.social joined Bloomberg to discuss President Trump's announcement of new secondary tariffs on Russian goods if Russia does not agree to a peace deal with Ukraine. Watch the full interview: www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/...
bloomberg.com
Trump Threatens New Financial Penalties For Russia Amid Stalled Peace Talks
Max Bergmann, director of the Europe, Russia and Eurasia program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, reacts to President Trump's announcement of new secondary tariffs on Russian goo...
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CSIS Europe, Russia, and Eurasia Program @erep.csis.org · 14/07/2025
💰 Russia's Wartime Economy: @marie-doha.bsky.social broke down key findings from our comprehensive analysis on the economics of Russia's war machine. ✍️ Takeaways + more below: www.linkedin.com/feed/update/... @msnegovaya.bsky.social @nicholasfenton.bsky.social @maxbergmann.bsky.social
linkedin.com
📰 Russia‘s wartime economy scrutinized by Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) experts; a 70p report worth reading. | Marie-Doha Besancenot
📰 Russia‘s wartime economy scrutinized by Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) experts; a 70p report worth reading. (June 2025) 🇷🇺 Since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the Kreml...
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msnegovaya.bsky.social @msnegovaya.bsky.social · 27/06/2025
In this week’s episode of Russian Roulette, @maxbergmann.bsky.social and I speak with the always insightful @hannanotte.bsky.social about how the recent war between Iran and Israel, along with U.S. strikes on Iran’s nuclear program, are shaping Russia’s strategy in the Middle East. Tune in today!
csis.org
Hanna Notte on What the Israel-Iran War Means for Russia | Russian Roulette | CSIS Podcasts
Hanna Notte returns to the show for a conversation with Max and Maria about what the most recent round of hostilities between Israel and Iran, plus the U.S. strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, mean...
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Nicholas Fenton @nicholasfenton.bsky.social · 26/06/2025
I recently spoke with Lily Mae Lazarus at @fortune.com about Russian fears of an economic recession, and the role the country's chronic labor shortage plays in constraining growth fortune.com/2025/06/22/r...
fortune.com
Russia’s economy boomed after the invasion of Ukraine—it’s now running out of steam
Record-low unemployment and ultra-hot inflation have put Russia “on the brink” of a recession, its economy minister said.
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Nicholas Fenton @nicholasfenton.bsky.social · 26/06/2025
If you haven't already, be sure to check out the full report now from @csis.org www.csis.org/analysis/rus...
csis.org
The Russian Wartime Economy: From Sugar High to Hangover
Russia is muddling through the sanctions, with its economy impacted but not ruined and its defense industry able to maintain the current levels of attrition. Moscow hence sees no need to end the war, ...
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Nicholas Fenton @nicholasfenton.bsky.social · 26/06/2025
Finally, @msnegovaya.bsky.social spoke with Живой Гвоздь about our analysis and how we understand the ways the Russian economy has adapted to both war and sanctions (RU) www.youtube.com/live/Ceufwhy...
youtube.com
Активы ФНБ могут закончиться. Стратегия Трампа по Украине и Ирану. Мария Снеговая*: Особое мнение
YouTube video by Живой Гвоздь
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Nicholas Fenton @nicholasfenton.bsky.social · 26/06/2025
Additionally, @msnegovaya.bsky.social shared our findings with the team at Ходорковский LIVE (RU) www.youtube.com/watch?v=is20...
youtube.com
Мария СНЕГОВАЯ: Война в Иране Путину на руку. Как выстояла экономика России. Новые санкции
YouTube video by Ходорковский LIVE
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Nicholas Fenton @nicholasfenton.bsky.social · 26/06/2025
Russian speakers should also be sure to listen to @msnegovaya.bsky.social discuss our work on the @meduzaproject.bsky.social podcast, Что Случилось meduza.io/episodes/202...
meduza.io
Российская экономика смогла перестроиться на военный лад. Насколько она теперь устойчива? И в чем сейчас ее главная слабость? — Meduza
Война и связанные с ней рекордные расходы на оборону и безопасность раскалили российскую экономику, но теперь она начала замедляться.
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Nicholas Fenton @nicholasfenton.bsky.social · 26/06/2025
Our team has been thrilled with the reception of our recent report, "The Russian Wartime Economy: From Sugar High to Hangover." Check out a discussion on our work w/ @maxbergmann.bsky.social, @msnegovaya.bsky.social, @eribakova.bsky.social, and Vladislav Inozemtsev www.youtube.com/watch?v=rk_7...
youtube.com
The Russian Wartime Economy
YouTube video by Center for Strategic & International Studies
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CSIS Europe, Russia, and Eurasia Program @erep.csis.org · 17/06/2025
HAPPENING NOW: CSIS experts @maxbergmann.bsky.social and @msnegovaya.bsky.social with Elina Ribakova and Vladislav Inozemtsev discuss The Russian Wartime Economy: From Sugar High to Hangover. Tune in here🔽: www.csis.org/events/russi...
csis.org
The Russian Wartime Economy | CSIS Events
Join the CSIS Europe, Russia, and Eurasia Program for a panel discussion on the current state of the Russian wartime economy.
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Reposted by Nicholas Fenton
CSIS | Center for Strategic & International Studies @csis.org · 17/06/2025
LIVE NOW: @erep.csis.org unpacks their latest report on Russia's wartime economy, covering structural changes to the economy since 2022, chokepoints threatening its sustainability, and possible scenarios for the Western sanctions regime. Watch here: www.csis.org/events/russi...
csis.org
The Russian Wartime Economy | CSIS Events
Join the CSIS Europe, Russia, and Eurasia Program for a panel discussion on the current state of the Russian wartime economy.
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Nicholas Fenton @nicholasfenton.bsky.social · 13/06/2025
If you'd like to learn more about our paper, be sure to tune into our livestreamed panel discussion on Tuesday, June 17 from 11 AM-12:30 PM. www.csis.org/events/russi...
csis.org
The Russian Wartime Economy | CSIS Events
Join the CSIS Europe, Russia, and Eurasia Program for a panel discussion on the current state of the Russian wartime economy.
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Nicholas Fenton @nicholasfenton.bsky.social · 13/06/2025
Additionally, we're thrilled to have @martinsandbu.ft.com give his take on our work in the pages of the @financialtimes.com on.ft.com/3FCUVf5
on.ft.com
Sanctions on Russia are working
It’s the right time to tighten the screws further
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Nicholas Fenton @nicholasfenton.bsky.social · 13/06/2025
Overall, we conclude that while Russia's economy faces significant challenges, it does not show any signs of imminent collapse. The current level of economic pressure alone will likely not be enough to get Putin to negotiate with Ukraine in good faith. Western policymakers must plan accordingly.
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Nicholas Fenton @nicholasfenton.bsky.social · 13/06/2025
If new sanctions effectively cut into Russian export revenues, they could create real problems for Russia, at least initially. In this moment of acute pressure, combined with further military support for Ukraine, Western diplomats would stand a better chance of forcing Russia to accept a ceasefire.
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Nicholas Fenton @nicholasfenton.bsky.social · 13/06/2025
If there is partial sanctions relief, Russia will gain more financial breathing room, but its overall economic position will not change dramatically. Western businesses are unlikely to rush back to the Russian market, and the remaining sanctions will continue to be a drag on the economy.
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Nicholas Fenton @nicholasfenton.bsky.social · 13/06/2025
With sanctions remaining as they are, Russia will likely be able to maintain funding for its war in Ukraine at the current level of intensity, and reconstitute its forces for continued confrontation with NATO.
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Nicholas Fenton @nicholasfenton.bsky.social · 13/06/2025
The final part of the paper outlines 3 scenarios for the future trajectory of the Russian economy over the near-to-medium term, dependent on Western sanctions policy: status quo sanctions, partial sanctions relief, and the tightening of sanctions.
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Nicholas Fenton @nicholasfenton.bsky.social · 13/06/2025
We also discuss the main chokepoints in the Russian economy today: an acute labor shortage, inflation, an overreliance on trade with China, a current account that remains vulnerable to a balance-of-payments crisis, a growing credit bubble, and the beginnings of a clear growth slowdown.
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Nicholas Fenton @nicholasfenton.bsky.social · 13/06/2025
We cover the Kremlin's high defense spending to stimulate growth as part of a program of military Keynesianism. Thanks to Russia's continued export revenues (most importantly from oil), the Kremlin is able to pour money into its defense industry and recruitment efforts.
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Nicholas Fenton @nicholasfenton.bsky.social · 13/06/2025
Check out the new report from me, @msnegovaya.bsky.social, Tina Dolbaia, and @maxbergmann.bsky.social on the Russian wartime economy, out now from @erep.csis.org at @csis.org. We do a deep dive on the Russian economy, and outline 3 scenarios for where it could be headed www.csis.org/analysis/rus...
csis.org
The Russian Wartime Economy: From Sugar High to Hangover
Russia is muddling through the sanctions, with its economy impacted but not ruined and its defense industry able to maintain the current levels of attrition. Moscow hence sees no need to end the war, ...
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