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NFL Scenarios @nflplayoffscenarios.com · 15/09/2026

In the above, where it says "CHI arbitrarily given tiebreak over DET", that was an oversight on my part (the tiebreak was League PF/PA until KC/DEN ended, and I hadn't handled net points division tiebreakers properly). CHI still wins, just on net points in all games (22 to 1). Site is updated.

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NFL Scenarios @nflplayoffscenarios.com · 15/09/2026

In the below, where it says "CHI arbitrarily given tiebreak over DET", that was an oversight on my part (the tiebreak was League PF/PA until KC/DEN ended, and I hadn't handled net points division tiebreakers properly). CHI still wins, just on net points in all games (22 to 1). Site is updated.

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NFL Scenarios @nflplayoffscenarios.com · 15/09/2026

The site has it's first 2026 page up. It's simply standings at this point, but we did have WAS/CAR fall all the way to net points, so that's cool. nflplayoffscenarios.com/2026/week/1/...

NFC Standings: 1) SF, 2) MIN, 3) NYG, 4) ATL, 5) CHI, 6) DET, 7) PHI, 8) ARI, 9) SEA, 10) TB, 11) NO, 12) WAS, 13) CAR, 14) DAL, 15) LAR, 16) GB

AFC Standings: 1) JAX, 2) KC, 3) BAL, 4) NYJ, 5) LV, 6) BUF, 7) CIN, 8) PIT, 9) NE, 10) LAC, 11) HOU, 12) TEN, 13) MIA, 14) IND, 15) DEN, 16) CLE

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NFL Scenarios @nflplayoffscenarios.com · 05/01/2026

Thank you to everyone for all of your support, and enjoy the playoffs!

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NFL Scenarios @nflplayoffscenarios.com · 05/01/2026

And with 272 games in the books, it's my time to sign off. Just want to shout out some people first (links from images are in alt text). @jpmsportsstats.bsky.social @ivanurena.bsky.social @kylestan.bsky.social @ray.playoffpredictors.com

Kyle Standerfer & Ivan Urena have endless troves of historical knowledge and are always willing to look something up and share. The most interesting things I post in a season usually come from them. Ivan has a book on the history of pro football schedules, which you can order here (link to https://www.amazon.com/Pro-Football-Schedules-Complete-Historical/dp/0786473517) !

Thomas Donovan & Jordan Anstey are the reason this site isn’t constantly error-riddled. They are my de facto editors, finding every mistake and helping refine scenarios day after day. When you see changes happen after the initial post, you can wager one of them is behind the fix.

Ray Lehnhoff is basically the entire reason this site exists. Without his technical expertise and support, I could never have made an operational site. Please support him by visiting his Playoff Predictors website (link https://v2.playoffpredictors.com/home) . It is the only NFL playoff machine that I can completely endorse as accurate.

Joe Ferreira has been my friend and mentor since 2007, and has taught me everything I know about scenarios. He’s basically responsible for this entire community existing, as I don’t think we would have ever found each other if it weren’t for his old CBS message boards. I cannot express enough how much I and the entire scenario community appreciate his generosity with his time and skills.

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NFL Scenarios @nflplayoffscenarios.com · 05/01/2026

The final post of the season is up. It is the season summary, and contains the bracket (scores & times will be updated as the games complete), and draft order (order will be updated as teams exit the playoffs). nflplayoffscenarios.com/2025/week/18...

nflplayoffscenarios.com

2025 Season Summary

Clinching & Elimination scenarios, tiebreakers, seeding, and more!

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NFL Scenarios @nflplayoffscenarios.com · 05/01/2026

With the BAL loss, BAL has been eliminated from playoff contention.

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NFL Scenarios @nflplayoffscenarios.com · 05/01/2026

With the PIT win, PIT has clinched the AFC North Division Title and the 4 seed. They will host HOU on Wildcard Weekend.

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NFL Scenarios @nflplayoffscenarios.com · 05/01/2026

With the DEN win, the AFC playoffs are (mostly) set: 1) DEN - 1st round bye 7) LAC @ 2) NE 6) BUF @ 3) JAX 5) HOU @ 4) BAL/PIT winner

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NFL Scenarios @nflplayoffscenarios.com · 05/01/2026

With the DEN win, DEN has clinched a first round bye and homefield advantage throughout the AFC playoffs.

DEN has clinched homefield advantage and a first round bye

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NFL Scenarios @nflplayoffscenarios.com · 05/01/2026

With the PHI loss, PHI is locked into the 3 seed and will host SF in wildcard weekend.

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NFL Scenarios @nflplayoffscenarios.com · 05/01/2026

With the PHI loss, CHI is locked into the 2 seed and will host GB in wildcard weekend.

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NFL Scenarios @nflplayoffscenarios.com · 05/01/2026

With the LAR win, SF is locked into the 6 seed.

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NFL Scenarios @nflplayoffscenarios.com · 05/01/2026

With the LAR win, LAR is locked to the 5 seed. They will travel to CAR in wildcard weekend.

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Ivan Urena @ivanurena.bsky.social · 04/01/2026

Since 1978, TB has been eliminated all 5 times it has needed help in the final week to make the postseason (1998, 2008, 2010, 2016, 2025). During that span, only the Raiders have been eliminated more times when needing help in the final week without making the playoffs on any of those occasions (6).

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Ivan Urena @ivanurena.bsky.social · 04/01/2026

AFC and NFC Seeding Scenarios (Updated after Sunday 1:00pm games):

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NFL Scenarios @nflplayoffscenarios.com · 04/01/2026

I'm laughing harder and harder every time this repeats

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NFL Scenarios @nflplayoffscenarios.com · 04/01/2026

With the ATL win, CAR has clinched the NFC South division title and the 4 seed. (Fixed from last post)

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NFL Scenarios @nflplayoffscenarios.com · 04/01/2026

With the HOU win, HOU is locked into the 5 seed and will visit the winner of the PIT/BAL game in the first round of the playoffs.

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NFL Scenarios @nflplayoffscenarios.com · 04/01/2026

With the ATL win, TB has been eliminated from playoff contention.

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NFL Scenarios @nflplayoffscenarios.com · 04/01/2026

With the NYG win, LV has clinched the 2026 #1 overall draft pick.

LV has clinched the #1 overall 2026 draft pick

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NFL Scenarios @nflplayoffscenarios.com · 04/01/2026

With the JAX win, JAX has clinched the AFC South Division Title.

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NFL Scenarios @nflplayoffscenarios.com · 04/01/2026

4) TB clinches the NFC South division title (and 4 seed) with ATL loss/tie 5) LV clinches the 1st overall draft pick with NYG win/tie.

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NFL Scenarios @nflplayoffscenarios.com · 04/01/2026

Happy final scenario day! What to watch for in the early slate: 1) JAX clinches the AFC South division title with a win/tie OR HOU loss 2) HOU clinches the AFC South division title (and 3 seed) with a win + JAX loss 3) CAR clinches the NFC South division title (and 4 seed) with ATL win

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Ivan Urena @ivanurena.bsky.social · 04/01/2026

CIN needed a win + CLE loss + PIT win (even though PIT was eliminated) to create a 3-way tie at 8-8 (CIN would win on best H2H, 3-1 over CLE 2-2, PIT 1-3). Otherwise, CLE would win the division. With PIT’s loss on Saturday of the final weekend, CLE won the AFC Central and CIN was eliminated (2 of 2)

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Ivan Urena @ivanurena.bsky.social · 04/01/2026

Re: CAR/TB/ATL scenario: Another example of two division teams fighting for a playoff spot in the season’s final week that would have their playoff hopes decided by a division rival that was already eliminated was CLE/CIN/PIT in 1985….(1 of 2)

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NFL Scenarios @nflplayoffscenarios.com · 04/01/2026

With the SEA win, SEA has clinched the NFC West division title, a first-round bye, and home-field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs

Seattle has clinched a first round bye and homefield advantage

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NFL Scenarios @nflplayoffscenarios.com · 04/01/2026

Once, kindof. Same situation, but chronologically backwards. In the final week of 1988, LAR beat SF to tie at 10-6. NO defeated ATL earlier in the day, giving SF the division on 3-way head-to-head. If NO had lost, LAR would have won the division on common games.(research from @kylestan.bsky.social)

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NFL Scenarios @nflplayoffscenarios.com · 04/01/2026

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NFL Scenarios @nflplayoffscenarios.com · 04/01/2026

You are correct, and I have deleted and reposted. Was just doing housework after submitting the post and suddenly stopped straight and thought "wait, did I say hosts?". And rapidly jumped back to see several people making the same correction.

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NFL Scenarios @nflplayoffscenarios.com · 04/01/2026

Alright, let's see if I can type this right on try 4 *faceplam*. What to watch for in SF/SEA: 1) SEA clinches the 1 seed with a win/tie 2) SF clinches the 1 seed with a win 3) SEA will be the 5 seed with a loss and will travel to the still-undetermined NFC South winner.

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NFL Scenarios @nflplayoffscenarios.com · 04/01/2026

Something will be clinched tonight! What to watch for in SEA/SF: 1) SEA clinches the 1 seed with a win/tie 2) SF clinches the 1 seed with a win 3) SEA will be 5 seed with a loss (and will host the still-undetermined NFC South title holders).

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NFL Scenarios @nflplayoffscenarios.com · 02/01/2026

Yeah, that's one I was looking at the other day, where if PIT wins, they host LAC, (with HOU hosting BUF & NE/DEN hosting JAX), but if PIT ties they host JAX (with HOU hosting LAC & NE/DEN hosting BUF). If BAL wins, they get the same as PIT tie. 4 seeds still up in the air with only 1 game to go.

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Ivan Urena @ivanurena.bsky.social · 30/12/2025

2025 Week 18 AFC Seeding Scenarios. All 64 combinations (assumes no ties):

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Ivan Urena @ivanurena.bsky.social · 30/12/2025

2025 Week 18 NFC Seeding Scenarios:

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NFL Scenarios @nflplayoffscenarios.com · 30/12/2025

With the ATL win, NYJ has been eliminated from 1st overall draft pick contention. We're down to just NYG & LV.

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NFL Scenarios @nflplayoffscenarios.com · 30/12/2025

Not quite. If ATL holds on tonight, then SF loss + LAR win next week would still put LAR at the 5 seed on Common Games (9-3 vs 8-4)

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NFL Scenarios @nflplayoffscenarios.com · 30/12/2025

What to watch for in LAR/ATL: 1) If ATL loses/ties, CAR/TB on Saturday will solely determine the NFC South Champion. 2) If ATL wins/ties, NYJ loses the ability to get the 1st overall draft pick.

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Ivan Urena @ivanurena.bsky.social · 28/12/2025

If Atlanta loses or ties on MNF, it would be the first time there are TWO winner-take-all games entering the final week of the season since 2013 when PHI/DAL played for the NFC East title; and GB/CHI for the NFC North crown.

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NFL Scenarios @nflplayoffscenarios.com · 29/12/2025

We also have some additional notes for week 18 (though many are actually for tonight's game's impact on week 18) on our Patreon: www.patreon.com/posts/nfc-so...

patreon.com

The NFC South is the ACC (Notes on week 18) | Tiebreaker Experts

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NFL Scenarios @nflplayoffscenarios.com · 29/12/2025

We have the week 18 playoff picture up with contingencies for LAR/ATL tonight! Includes seeding-specific scenarios as well as 1st overall draft pick scenarios. nflplayoffscenarios.com/2025/week/18...

nflplayoffscenarios.com

2025 Week 18 Playoff Picture (Prior to week 17 MNF)

Clinching & Elimination scenarios, tiebreakers, seeding, and more!

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NFL Scenarios @nflplayoffscenarios.com · 29/12/2025

With the SF win, the NFC West title and NFC 1 seed will be determined by the SF/SEA game in week 18.

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NFL Scenarios @nflplayoffscenarios.com · 29/12/2025

With the CHI loss, CHI has been knocked out of 1 seed contention.

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NFL Scenarios @nflplayoffscenarios.com · 29/12/2025

With the SF win, LAR has been eliminated from NFC West title contention.

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