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Reposted by Neil Thomas 牛犇

Asia Society Policy Institute (ASPI) @asiapolicy.asiasociety.org · 24/03/2026

In a new piece for @nytopinion.nytimes.com, Center for China Analysis' Jing Qian and @neilthomas123.bsky.social argue that more U.S. officials should visit China.

nytimes.com

Opinion | U.S. Leaders Need to See What’s Happening in China

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Asia Society Policy Institute (ASPI) @asiapolicy.asiasociety.org · 16/03/2026

At the recent Two Sessions, China outlined its goals and strategies for the next 5 years. Read key takeaways from @neilthomas123.bsky.social, Christopher Johnson, Guoguang Wu, Lyle Morris, Lizzi C. Lee, @hotpotwhynot.bsky.social & @lishuoclimate.bsky.social👇

asiasociety.org

What Happened at China's Two Sessions in 2026?

Read key takeaways from Center for China Analysis's experts on China's Two Sessions in 2026.

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Asia Society Policy Institute (ASPI) @asiapolicy.asiasociety.org · 13/03/2026

What are the key takeaways from China’s #TwoSessions? In a webinar co-hosted by #CCA and @scmpnews.bsky.social, Lizzi C. Lee, @neilthomas123.bsky.social, and Lyle Morris break down what they have learned about China’s plan for the next five years with Neil Denslow.

youtube.com

China’s Two Sessions: Economic Policy, U.S.-China Relations, and the 15th Five-Year Plan

YouTube video by Asia Society

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The Wire China @thewirechina.bsky.social · 10/03/2026

Op-Ed: "The era when climate cooperation was siloed away from economic competition in relations with China is ending." @neilthomas123.bsky.social writes for this week's issue of The Wire China:

buff.ly

China’s Climate Focus is Shifting from Carbon Cuts to Green Tech Dominance - The Wire China

China's next Five-Year Plan will make climate diplomacy look more like trade diplomacy, argues Neil Thomas.

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Asia Society Policy Institute (ASPI) @asiapolicy.asiasociety.org · 18/02/2026

In a new report, @neilthomas123.bsky.social and Guoguang Wu examine how China’s climate politics have evolved over the past two years. It assesses the impact of internal and external pressures — from bureaucratic turnover and economic headwinds to rising climate skepticism in Washington. Read now:

asiasociety.org

The Evolving Politics of Climate Change in China

Drawing on official data, policy signals, and diplomatic developments, Neil Thomas and Guoguang Wu write about how economic pressures, industrial policy, and geopolitical competition are reshaping Chi...

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Asia Society Policy Institute (ASPI) @asiapolicy.asiasociety.org · 27/01/2026

#CenterForChinaAnalysis' @neilthomas123.bsky.social joined the Australian Broadcasting Corporation (ABC) to explain how the historic purge of the PLA's top general, Zhang Youxia, fits into Xi Jinping's greater fight against corruption in his ranks 🇨🇳

youtube.com

China's top general investigated as Xi Jinping continues corruption purge | ABC NEWS

YouTube video by ABC News (Australia)

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Neil Thomas 牛犇 @neilthomas123.bsky.social · 05/11/2025

So what kind of deal does Xi want with Trump? Shortly after their summit, I went to a conference in NYC where half the room thought there'd be a "comprehensive" US-China trade deal by 2028 I was shocked Xi wants a truce to buy time and build leverage, not a grand bargain 9/

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Neil Thomas 牛犇 @neilthomas123.bsky.social · 05/11/2025

Key to Xi’s domestic agenda and US dealmaking is his political power The plenum reaffirmed his control despite record purges and further centralization E.g., share of cadre comments on plenum drafts then incorporated into final docs fell from 35.5% in 2010 to 21.4% in 2025 8/

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Neil Thomas 牛犇 @neilthomas123.bsky.social · 05/11/2025

Xi himself is concerned about overproduction and ruinous price wars But the plenum offered few convincing answers (yet) for how to curb such "involution" For Xi, the US is a cautionary tale of deindustrialization, so China's economy "must not shift from real to virtual" 7/

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Neil Thomas 牛犇 @neilthomas123.bsky.social · 05/11/2025

China will remain a high-capacity economy that puts producers over consumers Tensions with other industrial economies—especially in Europe and North America—will intensify China wants to dominate supply chains for future tech like it does now for EVs, batteries & solar 6/

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Neil Thomas 牛犇 @neilthomas123.bsky.social · 05/11/2025

Xi's top goals for the five-year plan for 2026-2030 are "building a modernized industrial system" and "self-strengthening in science and tech" He wants to ensure China can never again be coerced or contained by the US With "extraordinary measures" to develop key core tech 5/

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Neil Thomas 牛犇 @neilthomas123.bsky.social · 05/11/2025

Beijing sees a connect between its recent Fourth Plenum on the five-year plan and Trump-Xi "Major-power relations shape the international situation ... which profoundly influences domestic development" The summit was a bid to secure strategic breathing room for Xi's agenda 4/

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Neil Thomas 牛犇 @neilthomas123.bsky.social · 05/11/2025

But Xi still sees Trump as an agent of chaos and is preparing for a more turbulent world April 2: 34% tariff on China April 8: 84% April 9: 125% April 10: Beijing holds a "special meeting" to adjust its five-year planning in light of "changes in the external situation"... 3/

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Neil Thomas 牛犇 @neilthomas123.bsky.social · 05/11/2025

Probably not by the numbers—China's nominal GDP was only 64% of the US last year But perhaps yes in substance—industrial might, tech self-reliance, and export controls helped Xi stare down US pressure this year Chinese scholars are praising Mao's "strategic foresight" 2/

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Neil Thomas 牛犇 @neilthomas123.bsky.social · 05/11/2025

Mao Zedong said China would eclipse the US by 2030 In 1955: "Our goal is to catch up with and surpass the US … it will take at least 50 years, perhaps 75, which is 15 five-year plans" Xi just outlined China's 15th five-year plan. Can he prove Mao right? Latest for @asiapolicy.asiasociety.org 1/

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Neil Thomas 牛犇 @neilthomas123.bsky.social · 22/10/2025

Where is Xi Jinping steering China’s economy? How are U.S.-China relations shaping his choices? Why so much turmoil in Beijing? Join @asiapolicy.asiasociety.org for an Oct 29 webinar on the Fourth Plenum w/Michael Hirson, Chris Johnson, Dan Wang & Guoguang Wu asiasociety.org/policy-insti...

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Asia Society Policy Institute (ASPI) @asiapolicy.asiasociety.org · 31/07/2025

What matters most to Xi Jinping? What policies does he drive himself? In a new paper, #CenterforChinaAnalysis fellows @neilthomas123.bsky.social and Lobsang Tsering analyze Xi’s priorities using a CCA-compiled database of actions and policies Xi has personally initiated. ⬇️

asiasociety.org

Xi’s Personal Priorities: What Matters Most to China’s Leader?

Neil Thomas and Lobsang Tsering analyze official statements about President Xi Jinping’s actions to determine what issues China’s leader cares most about.

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Neil Thomas 牛犇 @neilthomas123.bsky.social · 07/05/2025

Honored to join the third fellowship cohort of the Penn Project on the Future of U.S.-China Relations Look forward to working with this amazing group as I prepare a policy paper on backchannel diplomacy Kudos to @neysunm.bsky.social and Amy Gadsden at Penn Global for leading this project!

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laurence pevsner @lpevs.bsky.social · 07/04/2025

The obsession with trade deficits, manufacturing jobs...Trump clearly has China envy. So we had @neilthomas123.bsky.social and @katelogan.bsky.social, two top China industrial strategy experts, on the pod. They played our riskgame and told us what we got right, wrong, and everything in-between

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Asia Society Policy Institute (ASPI) @asiapolicy.asiasociety.org · 07/03/2025

📺WATCH: Our experts from the Center for #China Analysis @hotpotwhynot.bsky.social, @neilthomas123.bsky.social, Lizzi C. Lee, and Guoguang Wu unpack China’s Two Sessions, Premier Li Qiang’s Government Work Report, China's growth targets, and more in a new panel discussion. ⬇️

youtu.be

The Two Sessions: What Will China Do on Stimulus, Trade Wars, and Tech Competition?

YouTube video by Asia Society

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Neil Thomas 牛犇 @neilthomas123.bsky.social · 10/12/2024

China’s Public Health Challenges Will Present Risks and Opportunities "The confluence of heightened chronic disease incidence, demographic headwinds, and domestic policy challenges has brought [China’s health system] to the edge of functionality" Patrick Beyrer & Bob T. Li 13/14

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Neil Thomas 牛犇 @neilthomas123.bsky.social · 10/12/2024

The Year of Complex Challenges Will Intensify the Need for Robust Climate Action "[China's] carbon emissions will finally plateau, but as the country struggles with an economic slowdown, more forceful policies to decrease emissions may be difficult" Li Shuo 12/14

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Neil Thomas 牛犇 @neilthomas123.bsky.social · 10/12/2024

Risk of Volatility Will Loom Large Across the Taiwan Strait "The risk of volatility in the Taiwan Strait will remain high over the next four years, as Beijing currently has no intention of resuming contact with Taiwan under the Lai administration" Rorry Daniels 11/14

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Neil Thomas 牛犇 @neilthomas123.bsky.social · 10/12/2024

U.S.-China Diplomatic Divide Will Widen "Each side portrays the other as intent on undermining their fundamental national security interests, and this rhetoric reinforces perceptions that the other side seeks to 'dominate' in a contest" Lyle Morris 10/14

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Neil Thomas 牛犇 @neilthomas123.bsky.social · 10/12/2024

Beijing Will Struggle to Manage Relations with the New U.S. Administration "Whether the U.S.-China relationship remains intact will depend on whether China perceives U.S. actions as setting the stage for a deal or ... unilateral decoupling" Rick Waters 9/14

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Neil Thomas 牛犇 @neilthomas123.bsky.social · 10/12/2024

Economic Slowdown and Post-COVID Challenges Will Continue to Drive People Toward Religion "Narratives of national pride and cultural rejuvenation no longer align with ordinary citizens’ lived experiences ... more people are turning to religion & spirituality" John Osburg 8/14

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Neil Thomas 牛犇 @neilthomas123.bsky.social · 10/12/2024

COVID-19’s Impact on Society Will Linger "People are now more pessimistic and uncertain ... A persistent lack of confidence in the country’s leadership and institutions will complicate Beijing’s efforts to achieve its economic and social development goals." G.A. Donovan 7/14

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Neil Thomas 牛犇 @neilthomas123.bsky.social · 10/12/2024

Tensions Over Industrial Policy and Trade Will Escalate "China is shifting from investment-led growth to technological self-reliance, with semiconductors, electric vehicles, biotechnology, and advanced manufacturing leading the way" Lizzi C. Lee 6/14

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Neil Thomas 牛犇 @neilthomas123.bsky.social · 10/12/2024

China Will Continue to Develop New Quality Productive Forces "The meaning of the [NQPF] concept — and hence the means by which China plans to realize it — will evolve through further elaboration in party documents and official speeches" Qiheng Chen 5/14

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Neil Thomas 牛犇 @neilthomas123.bsky.social · 10/12/2024

Significant Fiscal Reform Initiatives Are in the Pipeline "The fiscal system is in dire straits .. Measures announced since the plenum, such as the use of special bonds .. will certainly help, but they will need to be complemented by structural reforms" @berthofmanecon.bsky.social 4/14

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Neil Thomas 牛犇 @neilthomas123.bsky.social · 10/12/2024

Internal Party Governance Challenges Will Intensify "Balancing the trade-off between political control and elite incentives will be a major challenge in 2025 ... promotion of young cadres and more intense factional competition may serve [Xi's] interests" Guoguang Wu 3/14

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Neil Thomas 牛犇 @neilthomas123.bsky.social · 10/12/2024

Pressure Will Grow Between Xi’s Political Power and His Ability to Deliver Results "However, Xi’s own decision-making remains a key variable, as he has shown a degree of ideological flexibility when it serves his own political interests." By myself and Lobsang Tsering 2/14

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Neil Thomas 牛犇 @neilthomas123.bsky.social · 10/12/2024

NEW @asiasociety.org volume on China in 2025 "The coming year will prove pivotal in testing Beijing’s resilience and adaptability" —Is Xi's position secure? —Can China's economy recover? —How will Trump affect foreign policy? —Much more! Highlights of each chapter below... 1/14

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Neil Thomas 牛犇 @neilthomas123.bsky.social · 06/12/2024

What to watch out for in China next year? Asia Society Policy Institute's Center for China Analysis is launching our annual report in New York on Tuesday, with Kevin Rudd giving a keynote address. Friends in New York: there are a few spots left, please message me if interested!

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Neil Thomas 牛犇 @neilthomas123.bsky.social · 05/12/2024

Check out the full product by the Asia Society Policy Institute's Center for China Analysis: asiasociety.org/policy-insti... And the introductory essay by Andrew Chubb on which these posts are mostly based asiasociety.org/policy-insti... 20/20

asiasociety.org

Global Public Opinion on China

Global Public Opinion on China (GPOC) aggregates worldwide polling data to better inform public debates and support China-related decision-making among the world’s governments and policy communities, ...

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Neil Thomas 牛犇 @neilthomas123.bsky.social · 05/12/2024

Another finding is that public opinion research on China has been growing globally The chart below shows how the number of national surveys asking views of China has increased along with China's rising international profile This product brings them all together 19/20

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Neil Thomas 牛犇 @neilthomas123.bsky.social · 05/12/2024

Finally, Latin America has traditionally held very positive views of China But since Covid, there has been a big drop in sentiment, especially in Argentina and Brazil, although average LatAm favorability remains positive 2007: +32 2012: +41 2017: +33 2022: +6 2024: +11 18/20

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Neil Thomas 牛犇 @neilthomas123.bsky.social · 05/12/2024

China is also viewed relatively favorably in the Middle East and North Africa Less so than in Sub-Saharan Africa but a slight bump in favorability recently compared to 10-15 years ago 2007: +18 2012: +5 2017: +5 2022: +9 2024: +9 17/20

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Neil Thomas 牛犇 @neilthomas123.bsky.social · 05/12/2024

Where China really shines is Sub-Saharan Africa Consistently high net-positive favorability ratings for the last two decades Slight dip in the average as China became a bigger economic player, but still very popular 2007: +54 2012: +56 2017: +40 2022: +38 2024: +39 16/20

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Neil Thomas 牛犇 @neilthomas123.bsky.social · 05/12/2024

Here is a chart of opinion polls on China in India Indian respondents hold increasingly negative views of China, especially since the deadly border clash in 2020 15/20

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Neil Thomas 牛犇 @neilthomas123.bsky.social · 05/12/2024

South Asia is a mixed bag. Big change is plummeting favorability in India. To generalize, since 2020, many negative polls from India, many positive polls from PK/BAN/SL Huge region by population but small number of countries, so "region"-level data not so informative 14/20

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Neil Thomas 牛犇 @neilthomas123.bsky.social · 05/12/2024

Central Asia is also quite friendly towards China China has made concerted diplomatic efforts and economic investments in the region Though polling is relatively sparse and there aren't many countries in the sample 2005: +24 2018: +50 2020: +6 2022: +41 13/20

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Neil Thomas 牛犇 @neilthomas123.bsky.social · 05/12/2024

Southeast Asia is much more well-disposed to China Majorities in most ASEAN countries express positive sentiment, although by much lower margins recently, perhaps due to rising South China Sea tensions 2007: +39 2012: +44 2017: +3 2022: +22 2024: +9 12/20

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Neil Thomas 牛犇 @neilthomas123.bsky.social · 05/12/2024

Northeast Asia has always been skeptical of China Taiwan, Japan, ROK and Mongolia are all right next to the PRC and the first two have territorial disputes Recent positive surveys are only from Hong Kong 2007: -28 2012: -39 2017: -49 2022: -51 2024: -37 11/20

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