iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Reposted by Neil Shearing

Financial Times @financialtimes.com · 19/11/2025

What has Martin Wolf been reading in 2025? Tap here to find out: on.ft.com/49u4UzS

on.ft.com

Best books of 2025: Economics

Martin Wolf selects his must-read titles

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Neil Shearing @neilshearing.bsky.social · 15/09/2025

Wrote a piece for @theworldtoday.org and @chathamhouse.org on US-China fracturing and what we get wrong about the future of globalisation...

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Reposted by Neil Shearing

Robin Brooks @robin-j-brooks.bsky.social · 22/05/2025

There's nothing good about high and rising US Treasury yields. The only silver lining is that it shuts down all the #MMT nonsense of recent years, which claimed that "deficits don't matter." Deficits do matter and fiscal space is very much finite. Time for #MMT to finally go the way of the dodo...

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Neil Shearing @neilshearing.bsky.social · 08/05/2025

Wrote this last month in the wake of the April 2nd tariff chaos. Still feels like a reasonable base case.

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Neil Shearing @neilshearing.bsky.social · 30/04/2025

The collapse in port berth bookings in US looks alarming but here's some important context - YTD port throughput at LA Long Beach is already up ~10% on last year as firms have sought to front-run tariffs. Inventory-to-sales ratios also rising.

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Neil Shearing @neilshearing.bsky.social · 08/04/2025

Today feels like a good day to announce the publication of my book, “The Fractured Age”.

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Neil Shearing @neilshearing.bsky.social · 05/03/2025

Striking that China has announced a target for REAL GDP growth this year of 5% but the budget docs from today's Work Plan suggest that the government is expecting NOMINAL GDP growth of just ~4.9%. So much for a reflationary recovery.

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Reposted by Neil Shearing

Tom Hearden @followtheh.bsky.social · 28/02/2025

“Why don’t you say thank you”

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Reposted by Neil Shearing

Jim Pickard @pickardje.bsky.social · 28/02/2025

Brexit has never looked quite so daft

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Neil Shearing @neilshearing.bsky.social · 28/02/2025

I used to be disgusted, now I try to be amused. (Appreciate the macro/Elvis Costello Venn Diagram overlap is niche)

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Neil Shearing @neilshearing.bsky.social · 28/02/2025

My latest - pushing back on the idea that we're witnessing a fundamental geoeconomic realignment. Weird times but there's still more that unites than divides the US and Europe. The big schism remains between the US and China. www.capitaleconomics.com/blog/geoecon...

capitaleconomics.com

A geoeconomic realignment – or is it? | Capital Economics

Ernest Hemingway’s line about bankruptcy happening “gradually, then suddenly” can apply to the geopolitical mood too.

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Neil Shearing @neilshearing.bsky.social · 10/01/2025

Updated our estimates of the UK government's headroom against its fiscal rules after this week's gilt sell-off. It's... tight...

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Neil Shearing @neilshearing.bsky.social · 07/01/2025

Rise in vacancies has rattled the bond market today - but drop in the quits rate telling a different story...

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Reposted by Neil Shearing

Henry Mance @henrymance.ft.com · 24/11/2024

Starmer cannot survive this

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Neil Shearing @neilshearing.bsky.social · 21/11/2024

Looked at how other countries responded to US tariffs in the first Trump administration. Key points:

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Neil Shearing @neilshearing.bsky.social · 20/11/2024

Of all the dumb things that I've seen said about tariffs over the past couple of weeks, the dumbest is that they help to close trade deficits.

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Neil Shearing @neilshearing.bsky.social · 19/11/2024

Back from meetings with clients in the US. Still think everyone is too optimistic on the likelihood of additional significant tax cuts under Trump (beyond the extension of the 2018 cuts).

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Neil Shearing @neilshearing.bsky.social · 11/09/2024

Thoughts on where we stand after the latest data. Become more concerned about labour markets, but soft landing still seems most likely outcome. With that said, “data dependence” is no way to anchor policy. www.capitaleconomics.com/blog/data-sp...

capitaleconomics.com

As the data spin contrasting economic narratives, which will central banks follow? | Capital Economics

So much for staying ‘data dependent’.

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