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Non-Correlating Stock Ideas

@ncsi.bsky.social
204 followers 137 following 1.4K posts

Equity, Crypto, Preferreds and unconventional investments. Contributing on Seeking Alpha: seekingalpha.com/author/non-correla…

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Non-Correlating Stock Ideas @ncsi.bsky.social · 16h
I see some saying the turn around rally in AI related stocks like $CRWV is because the market "came to its senses" about these stocks having a lot of NAV. Yeah, no. That's a total BS narrative. When things trade < 1x P/TBV we can start to talk about NAV.
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Non-Correlating Stock Ideas @ncsi.bsky.social · 21h
When I first started following $USB it was a 2+% ROA bank; the best in the US. After a series of mergers in the post-GFC period, those 2% figures are long gone, but good to see them heading back in the right direction this year.
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Non-Correlating Stock Ideas @ncsi.bsky.social · 22h
$MU has never been a bigger company than $BRK. Don't judge real business size by market-cap during the dumbest market of my lifetime.
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Non-Correlating Stock Ideas @ncsi.bsky.social · 23h
Equal-weighted Utilities also turned up yesterday. The level it did so is interesting, but in general I find that when this relationship generates relative Buy signals, we will be close to the end of Bear moves. Hence, I don't view this as actionable per se, but part of the mosaic. $RSPU / $RSP .TR
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Non-Correlating Stock Ideas @ncsi.bsky.social · 15/10/2026
This is a prime setup for Russell small-cap Value / Growth to launch. Turned up into another column of X's yesterday. It takes a lot to get another box, but if this happens it would be a big sign IMO. $IWN / $IWO total return basis.
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Non-Correlating Stock Ideas @ncsi.bsky.social · 14/10/2026
Who had $TLT turning green today? Is this bullish for bonds? 😜
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Non-Correlating Stock Ideas @ncsi.bsky.social · 14/10/2026
Not only more concentrated elite pitching in the playoffs now, but they usually have a 1-2 mph bump up in velocity as well.
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Non-Correlating Stock Ideas @ncsi.bsky.social · 14/10/2026
Ahem... (tap) (tap) $SPSM
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Non-Correlating Stock Ideas @ncsi.bsky.social · 13/10/2026
This is madness. That's effectively issuing at CCC rated level. Who does that? This has completely entered the realm of faith-based investment strategy.
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Non-Correlating Stock Ideas @ncsi.bsky.social · 13/10/2026
Lets' get the total return calculations in there just in case as well. Russell 1000 has weird components to its indexes, so if looking for large vs small, I think it's best to stick with S&P, or at least only do the R2K for small.
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Non-Correlating Stock Ideas @ncsi.bsky.social · 13/10/2026
So far small-caps S&P 600 $SPSM has held its 200 day sma. Generally tough, I don't view this as too constructive when it keeps testing each day versus decisvely bouncing. Usually this leads to an eventual break.
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Non-Correlating Stock Ideas @ncsi.bsky.social · 13/10/2026
It really is amazing that Semi's are pulling back on the most 'Duh' comment ever, but here's the P&F 2% box size so you can see what's needed to confirm that this recent move has been a Bull Trap and not a true reversal. 532 is the print right now. 👀 $SMH
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Non-Correlating Stock Ideas @ncsi.bsky.social · 09/10/2026
Thanks for the contrarian bat over the head The Economist.
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Non-Correlating Stock Ideas @ncsi.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
Perhaps bigger than the 200 day sma, is the 40 week sma for Small-caps $SPSM. Don't want to close on Friday below 53.21. Usually significant follow through afterwards.
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Non-Correlating Stock Ideas @ncsi.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
Fully admit I love to see this. (No Direct Positions)
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Non-Correlating Stock Ideas @ncsi.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
Field position update: still a good woosh away from breaking 30 on the $BPNYSE.
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Non-Correlating Stock Ideas @ncsi.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
Seven days later... This is weird. $INTU / $SMH
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Non-Correlating Stock Ideas @ncsi.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
Mid-caps down (1+3/4%) while SPX (.30s). Yeah sure whatever. Makes sense.
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Non-Correlating Stock Ideas @ncsi.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
I know there's a lot going on here, but I think this is an opportunity born from a company split that just happened. Overlaying this max $CTAPRB chart vs the $TYX 30Y. Those circles indicate the approximate 30Y yield vs those prices. Hence, historically when this issue yields this much, 30Y = 7-8%.
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Non-Correlating Stock Ideas @ncsi.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
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Non-Correlating Stock Ideas @ncsi.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
Even with rates down a bit today, small-caps continue to struggle both absolutely and relatively. $SPSM $SPX
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Non-Correlating Stock Ideas @ncsi.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
Preferred Securities really are getting interesting. Here's the spread between $PGX and High-Yield ETF $HYG. Only time higher was during the negative rates environment that somehow convinced people to own HY even more. We're at the peak of the range outside that time period.
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Non-Correlating Stock Ideas @ncsi.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
Yet another moniker for incomes securities as stretched: Preferred Securities ETF $PGX near 7% threshold that has shown resistance in the past.
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Non-Correlating Stock Ideas @ncsi.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
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Non-Correlating Stock Ideas @ncsi.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
Market police clearly recieved my message. $SPMD 🤷‍♂️
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Non-Correlating Stock Ideas @ncsi.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
Strong moves usually don't give you opportunities immediately to get in if you missed the initial move. Mid-caps $SPMD already looking towards Dr. Phill D. Gap.
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Non-Correlating Stock Ideas @ncsi.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
I know I kinda just blurted this out on Friday, but I do think there's merit to some real tail risk type of event in the short term based off of the magnitude of the move we're seeing in 10-Year Treasury rate $TNX. Just think about what you would do IF something happens. Helps reduce emotions.
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Non-Correlating Stock Ideas @ncsi.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
The air keeps getting thinner up here with fewer times touched on the weekly rsi(10) line. If the 10-Year rate $TNX doesn't stop basically now, then TBH I expect something cataclysmic to happen as soon as next week. I try to refrain from hyperbole, but that's all that's left to move it higher.
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Non-Correlating Stock Ideas @ncsi.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
$PTNYSE always moves slower, and is barely past midfield at this point.
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Non-Correlating Stock Ideas @ncsi.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
Field position by $BPNYSE suggests that this isn't a great setup yet for equities. It's Q4 though, so certainly could rally into YE. Just remember if that's your play, then not to overstay.
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Non-Correlating Stock Ideas @ncsi.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
During this sell-off in bonds over the last month as well, we've seen very high correlation with SMid-caps. So far today they're ignoring the rates. Do not have confidence this will continue. $TLT $SPSM
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Non-Correlating Stock Ideas @ncsi.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
Look I've been buying this sell-off in bonds so I'm literally invested in the view that yesterday was likely the trading bottom, but you want to at least hold if not to tack on some more gains on the follow-up. Giving back so quickly after constructive eco data as well is no bueno. $TLT
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Non-Correlating Stock Ideas @ncsi.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
This is a one year chart for $WLK. Not much else to say than pretty amazing round trip.
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Non-Correlating Stock Ideas @ncsi.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
This was such a crazy year in roto. This is a weird hybrid keeper league I'm in, (no Central Divisions), I've added in the 2026 actual $ returns for the top 43 projected pitchers pre-season. The green highlighted produced a profit, grey met projections. Basically 75% missed projections and by a lot.
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Non-Correlating Stock Ideas @ncsi.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
Nice. Here they are from last week in NYC.
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Non-Correlating Stock Ideas @ncsi.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
Pretty amazing how this Anti/Pro AI Pair trade seems to change trends and hold right at the start of each month. $INTU / $SMH
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Non-Correlating Stock Ideas @ncsi.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
I've nibbled on TIPS, but if this 10-Year hits 3% I'm probably going to get aggressive.
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Non-Correlating Stock Ideas @ncsi.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
The only other time in the post-GFC era that preferred securities $PGX ETF has been this low on the weekly rsi(10) was during the pandemic. Seeing some issues of interest down (4+%) today, but also seeing some names green suggesting the sellers are done there.
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Non-Correlating Stock Ideas @ncsi.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
Mid-caps $SPMD, first through the 200 sma. Still not oversold enough either.
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Non-Correlating Stock Ideas @ncsi.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
How are folks feeling about Gold now $GC? Don't hear as much chatter anymore. 2% box chart
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Non-Correlating Stock Ideas @ncsi.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
Mid-caps tagged its 200 sma today, but still not screaming oversold. 🤢
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Non-Correlating Stock Ideas @ncsi.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
Seeing more posts of folks noting the weakness of breadth that those of us following non-mcap weighted SPX have known about for awhile. So where are we? Well, $BPNYSE is at the 40 level similar to the last pullback so far. Still a ways away from <30 that gets me interested. 👀
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Non-Correlating Stock Ideas @ncsi.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
If it wasn't for that AI ramp in utilities, they probably would be an attractive buy target right now, but despite being oversold, there's just little meat on that bone. Getting a 3.25% yield from $RSPU implies another (10%) further decline.
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Non-Correlating Stock Ideas @ncsi.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
I also don't think the flattening of the curve should be ignored. Yes I know the UST is out there trying to influence the long-end, but the 2-10 spread is a pretty big sentiment indicator in my eyes.
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Non-Correlating Stock Ideas @ncsi.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
Just reiterating, I think we're in the rare level of extension for rates. History likely suggests limited rise in the intermediate time frame from here. Consider adding some income investments if you haven't done so already. $TNX weekly rsi(10)
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Non-Correlating Stock Ideas @ncsi.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
The $SPX is well above its 20 day sma. The $SPXEW is fighting to hold its 100 sma. The Smid-caps are closing in on their 200 sma's. Don't over think this.
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Non-Correlating Stock Ideas @ncsi.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
$THO missed and didn't provide guide for the rest of FY '27, but the stock is trading up over 4%. Since that crazy bullish buy signal on P&F, the stock has been weak. Looks like it might have bottomed. We'll see.
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Non-Correlating Stock Ideas @ncsi.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
Really encourage total return analysis for these types of ratios, and longer time frames beyond the ETF era. This one only goes to the 90's, but I've seen charts put together for the entire 20th century which show a very different picture. Anyway, only tech bubbles has cap-weighted beating equal.
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Non-Correlating Stock Ideas @ncsi.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
What I take from today's action is that the gentiles are the spec-growth knuckle draggers. (FD: I'm a gentile. Just not the other parts.)
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Non-Correlating Stock Ideas @ncsi.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
Time to short $FITB?
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