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Non-Correlating Stock Ideas

@ncsi.bsky.social
201 followers 136 following 1.4K posts

Equity, Crypto, Preferreds and unconventional investments. Contributing on Seeking Alpha: seekingalpha.com/author/non-correla…

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Non-Correlating Stock Ideas @ncsi.bsky.social · 6h
Who had $TLT turning green today? Is this bullish for bonds? 😜
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Non-Correlating Stock Ideas @ncsi.bsky.social · 13/10/2026
So far small-caps S&P 600 $SPSM has held its 200 day sma. Generally tough, I don't view this as too constructive when it keeps testing each day versus decisvely bouncing. Usually this leads to an eventual break.
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Non-Correlating Stock Ideas @ncsi.bsky.social · 13/10/2026
It really is amazing that Semi's are pulling back on the most 'Duh' comment ever, but here's the P&F 2% box size so you can see what's needed to confirm that this recent move has been a Bull Trap and not a true reversal. 532 is the print right now. 👀 $SMH
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Non-Correlating Stock Ideas @ncsi.bsky.social · 09/10/2026
Thanks for the contrarian bat over the head The Economist.
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Non-Correlating Stock Ideas @ncsi.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
Perhaps bigger than the 200 day sma, is the 40 week sma for Small-caps $SPSM. Don't want to close on Friday below 53.21. Usually significant follow through afterwards.
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Non-Correlating Stock Ideas @ncsi.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
I haven't been able to do any research on this at all, but the thing I'm most interested in is not just the absolute #, but how much is actual cashflow versus recognized revenue of another kind. All of these deals they've negotiated suggest to me a high risk of limited real customers paying in cash.
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Non-Correlating Stock Ideas @ncsi.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
Fully admit I love to see this. (No Direct Positions)
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Non-Correlating Stock Ideas @ncsi.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
Field position update: still a good woosh away from breaking 30 on the $BPNYSE.
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Non-Correlating Stock Ideas @ncsi.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
Latest thoughts on Preferred Securities $PGX seekingalpha.com/article/4952...
seekingalpha.com
Preferred Securities More Enticing And Back In My Favor (NYSEARCA:PGX)
The Invesco Preferred ETF now offers close to an attractive 7% yield, and its spread to high-yield bonds is at the upper end of its range. Read more on PGX.
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Non-Correlating Stock Ideas @ncsi.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
Mid-caps down (1+3/4%) while SPX (.30s). Yeah sure whatever. Makes sense.
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Non-Correlating Stock Ideas @ncsi.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
I know there's a lot going on here, but I think this is an opportunity born from a company split that just happened. Overlaying this max $CTAPRB chart vs the $TYX 30Y. Those circles indicate the approximate 30Y yield vs those prices. Hence, historically when this issue yields this much, 30Y = 7-8%.
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Non-Correlating Stock Ideas @ncsi.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
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Non-Correlating Stock Ideas @ncsi.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
Even with rates down a bit today, small-caps continue to struggle both absolutely and relatively. $SPSM $SPX
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Non-Correlating Stock Ideas @ncsi.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
Preferred Securities really are getting interesting. Here's the spread between $PGX and High-Yield ETF $HYG. Only time higher was during the negative rates environment that somehow convinced people to own HY even more. We're at the peak of the range outside that time period.
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Non-Correlating Stock Ideas @ncsi.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
Yet another moniker for incomes securities as stretched: Preferred Securities ETF $PGX near 7% threshold that has shown resistance in the past.
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Non-Correlating Stock Ideas @ncsi.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
I need an "I'm old enough to remember when higher rates meant lower stocks." T-shirt.
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Non-Correlating Stock Ideas @ncsi.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
Strong moves usually don't give you opportunities immediately to get in if you missed the initial move. Mid-caps $SPMD already looking towards Dr. Phill D. Gap.
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Non-Correlating Stock Ideas @ncsi.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
I know I kinda just blurted this out on Friday, but I do think there's merit to some real tail risk type of event in the short term based off of the magnitude of the move we're seeing in 10-Year Treasury rate $TNX. Just think about what you would do IF something happens. Helps reduce emotions.
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Non-Correlating Stock Ideas @ncsi.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
The air keeps getting thinner up here with fewer times touched on the weekly rsi(10) line. If the 10-Year rate $TNX doesn't stop basically now, then TBH I expect something cataclysmic to happen as soon as next week. I try to refrain from hyperbole, but that's all that's left to move it higher.
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Non-Correlating Stock Ideas @ncsi.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
Field position by $BPNYSE suggests that this isn't a great setup yet for equities. It's Q4 though, so certainly could rally into YE. Just remember if that's your play, then not to overstay.
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Non-Correlating Stock Ideas @ncsi.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
I think someone pulled the plug on the machines, because this market is flat lining.
static.klipy.com
Black Cat Unplugs Cable from Device - The Pet Collective
ALT: Black Cat Unplugs Cable from Device - The Pet Collective
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Non-Correlating Stock Ideas @ncsi.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
Look I've been buying this sell-off in bonds so I'm literally invested in the view that yesterday was likely the trading bottom, but you want to at least hold if not to tack on some more gains on the follow-up. Giving back so quickly after constructive eco data as well is no bueno. $TLT
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Non-Correlating Stock Ideas @ncsi.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
Generally agree with this sentiment, and it's what I've been doing so.... seekingalpha.com/news/4649830...
seekingalpha.com
BofA’s Hartnett calls on investors to ‘buy humiliation’ in bond rout (TLT:NASDAQ)
BofA’s Hartnett says “buy humiliation”: add Treasuries and IG tech bonds as returns hit century lows.
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Non-Correlating Stock Ideas @ncsi.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
I know rates are more the story here and for good reason right now, but anyone else notice Brent?
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Non-Correlating Stock Ideas @ncsi.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
This is a one year chart for $WLK. Not much else to say than pretty amazing round trip.
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Non-Correlating Stock Ideas @ncsi.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
This was such a crazy year in roto. This is a weird hybrid keeper league I'm in, (no Central Divisions), I've added in the 2026 actual $ returns for the top 43 projected pitchers pre-season. The green highlighted produced a profit, grey met projections. Basically 75% missed projections and by a lot.
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Non-Correlating Stock Ideas @ncsi.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
Pretty amazing how this Anti/Pro AI Pair trade seems to change trends and hold right at the start of each month. $INTU / $SMH
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Non-Correlating Stock Ideas @ncsi.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
I've nibbled on TIPS, but if this 10-Year hits 3% I'm probably going to get aggressive.
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Non-Correlating Stock Ideas @ncsi.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
The only other time in the post-GFC era that preferred securities $PGX ETF has been this low on the weekly rsi(10) was during the pandemic. Seeing some issues of interest down (4+%) today, but also seeing some names green suggesting the sellers are done there.
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Non-Correlating Stock Ideas @ncsi.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
Mid-caps $SPMD, first through the 200 sma. Still not oversold enough either.
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Non-Correlating Stock Ideas @ncsi.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
How are folks feeling about Gold now $GC? Don't hear as much chatter anymore. 2% box chart
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Non-Correlating Stock Ideas @ncsi.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Since I had been mentioning this idea bit more than average recently, I figured I'd organize it in an article to share: seekingalpha.com/article/4949...
seekingalpha.com
Compelling Setup For CEF Munis; Why I Recently Purchased NNY (NYSE:NNY)
Rates may be peaking and how rate-sensitive CEFs like NNY offer 4.5%+ income and a wide NAV discount—read the analysis now.
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Non-Correlating Stock Ideas @ncsi.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
Just another day in the dumbest market of my lifetime.
static.klipy.com
Cat Cigarette
ALT: Cat Cigarette
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Non-Correlating Stock Ideas @ncsi.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
Mid-caps tagged its 200 sma today, but still not screaming oversold. 🤢
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Non-Correlating Stock Ideas @ncsi.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
Seeing more posts of folks noting the weakness of breadth that those of us following non-mcap weighted SPX have known about for awhile. So where are we? Well, $BPNYSE is at the 40 level similar to the last pullback so far. Still a ways away from <30 that gets me interested. 👀
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Non-Correlating Stock Ideas @ncsi.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
If it wasn't for that AI ramp in utilities, they probably would be an attractive buy target right now, but despite being oversold, there's just little meat on that bone. Getting a 3.25% yield from $RSPU implies another (10%) further decline.
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Non-Correlating Stock Ideas @ncsi.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
Just reiterating, I think we're in the rare level of extension for rates. History likely suggests limited rise in the intermediate time frame from here. Consider adding some income investments if you haven't done so already. $TNX weekly rsi(10)
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Non-Correlating Stock Ideas @ncsi.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
The $SPX is well above its 20 day sma. The $SPXEW is fighting to hold its 100 sma. The Smid-caps are closing in on their 200 sma's. Don't over think this.
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Non-Correlating Stock Ideas @ncsi.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
$THO missed and didn't provide guide for the rest of FY '27, but the stock is trading up over 4%. Since that crazy bullish buy signal on P&F, the stock has been weak. Looks like it might have bottomed. We'll see.
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Non-Correlating Stock Ideas @ncsi.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
@dvr.bsky.social @enosarris.bsky.social Just listened to the postmortem episode on the Reds. Really liked having a knowledgible fan do it, as more likely to pick at the scabs perhaps vs a beat writer would be.
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Non-Correlating Stock Ideas @ncsi.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
What I take from today's action is that the gentiles are the spec-growth knuckle draggers. (FD: I'm a gentile. Just not the other parts.)
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Non-Correlating Stock Ideas @ncsi.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
I admit I'm nervous that since the AI trade hasn't broken down this month, and instead reversed up to the top of its range, that we're just going to see a big closing push for the rest of the year on this front. This $MU 2% box chart is an example. Might just step aside until 1-1-27.
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Non-Correlating Stock Ideas @ncsi.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
When I see sentiment so negative on a stock, the value investor in me has to take a look. In this case, I had to do something very unusual with $NKE Ev/Ebitda TTM. I'm showing it in log so you can see where it usually trades. The valuation went ballistic skewing the linear chart. = still not yet.
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Non-Correlating Stock Ideas @ncsi.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
$SPXEW total return YTD.
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Non-Correlating Stock Ideas @ncsi.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
Not a fan of using this tragedy for this purpose. Plenty of other ways to express this point without this reference. www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
bloomberg.com
The O-Ring Risk to the Global Economy
Waking up to the threat of the weakest link causing one disaster after another.
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Non-Correlating Stock Ideas @ncsi.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
If you're in Northern Vermont during the October long-weekend for peeper season, here's a great concert to hear chamber music in an idyllic sounding room.
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Non-Correlating Stock Ideas @ncsi.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
There has been a lot more churning than we've historically seen in this ratio. Usually, when the mcap vs equal-weighted S&P 500 spikes up, it recedes in due course. This churning over the last year is a new wrinkle. 👀 $SPX / $SPXEW total return basis.
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Non-Correlating Stock Ideas @ncsi.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
So what kind of day was this? Small and Large-cap Growth indexes +.81 and +1.62% respectively. Money making Small-caps? Buckus. $SPSM
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Non-Correlating Stock Ideas @ncsi.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
When my income focused <30% Equity exposed accounts are up as much as my equity only accounts on an up day, then you know something is happening in Bond land. I continue to suspect we have reached a short-intermediate term bottom in bonds.
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Non-Correlating Stock Ideas @ncsi.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
I haven't been able to focus solely on markets today, so maybe I missed some key bit of news, but when I look at this chart of $SPX, today's move all feels like a massive save attempt. The other indexes in weaker positions are giving back gains so far. 👀
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