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Livestock Risk Protection endorsements cluster around CME option expirations, but simulated subsidy-capture gains are small, concentrated in low-volatility periods, and come with worse downside risk, from Yifei Zhang, Andrew Keller, Shawn Arita, and @SteinbachAgEcon www.nber.org/papers/w35819

010

NBER @nber.org · 13h

Childcare quality is important for child development, which is described by a complex process with many inputs, from @orazio_at, Raquel Bernal, Michele Giannola, and @mnores_ecd www.nber.org/papers/w35818

020

NBER @nber.org · 14h

Building Food at Home inflation measures from item-level transactions data, comparing them to official stats, and how modern data can capture consumer choices more accurately, from Coffey, @gabriel_ehrlich, @JHaltiwanger_UM, @jarmin_ron, @djatumich, Johnson, and Shapiro www.nber.org/papers/w35817

195

NBER @nber.org · 15h

Was the Great Depression a result of an over accumulation of investment during the 1920s, despite a slowdown in new product development and satiated demand? From Harold L. Cole, Stefano Cravero, and Jeremy Greenwood www.nber.org/papers/w35816

021

NBER @nber.org · 16h

Technical change often simplifies work. This increases productivity, but it also makes workers more replicable or commoditized, and may therefore reduce wages, from Masao Fukui, @eminakamura2, and @JonSteinsson www.nber.org/papers/w35815

072

NBER @nber.org · 17h

French areas with access to Luxembourg's booming job market saw higher employment, population, and incomes, which suggests declining industrial regions can recover when labor demand rebounds on a large enough scale, from @LevyAntoine and @MathildeMunoz www.nber.org/papers/w35814

050

NBER @nber.org · 01/10/2026

Open call for applications: Digital Economics and AI Tutorial to be held January 20-21, 2027 at Stanford University. Deadline for submission: 11.59pm EST on November 3, 2026. Full information: www.nber.org/calls-papers...

010

NBER @nber.org · 01/10/2026

Zero-sum environments can foster beliefs that curb wasteful competition but suppress effort and innovation—creating a cultural growth trap; In the context of post-1500 Europe, from @ABergeron_econ, Jean-Paul Carvalho, Joseph Henrich, @DrNathanNunn, and @jonathanweigel www.nber.org/papers/w35813

041

NBER @nber.org · 01/10/2026

Maritime chokepoints are not just local logistics risks, they are a channel through which geopolitical, climate, and infrastructure disruptions become shocks for entire transport capacity, from Giulia Brancaccio, @myrto_kaloup, Theodore Papageorgiou, and Yixin www.nber.org/papers/w35812

041

NBER @nber.org · 01/10/2026

Open call for papers: Compensation of Top Executives: Determinants and Consequences conference to be held June 22, 2027 in Cambridge, MA. Submission deadline: 11:59pm ET on Wednesday, February 3, 2027. More information: www.nber.org/compensation...

000

NBER @nber.org · 01/10/2026

An Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation collapse may overturn some of the effects of global warming—easing its impact on developing countries and instead harming more advanced economies, from @jlcruzalv, @klausvanieper, and @HansbergRossi www.nber.org/papers/w35811

014

NBER @nber.org · 01/10/2026

Childhood neighbors influence career paths: Living next door to someone in an occupation raises the chance of holding that occupation 30 years later by 10 percent, from @MikeJAndrews44, @ryanreedhill, @joepricebyu, and @1rileywilson www.nber.org/papers/w35810

031

NBER @nber.org · 01/10/2026

Humanity is likely below replacement fertility. That has never happened before. But, the real surprise is that the fall has been concentrated in low- and middle-income countries and among poorer and less educated women, from Jesús Fernández-Villaverde and Patrick Norrick www.nber.org/papers/w35809

040

NBER @nber.org · 01/10/2026

Ship data show the 2021 West Coast crisis and the Red Sea attacks cost the US 0.69% and 0.35% of output, largely because carriers shift ships without accounting for the congestion, from Xiwen Bai, Jesús Fernández-Villaverde, @YiliangLi_, Ricardo Marto, and @FZanettiOxford www.nber.org/papers/w35808

020

NBER @nber.org · 30/09/2026

Time fixed effects don't absorb aggregate shocks in production networks: shocks spread unevenly through prices, costs, and demand, so IV and diff-in-diff estimates can mix direct effects with network "leakage," from Bernard Herskovic and Gill Segal www.nber.org/papers/w35807

040

NBER @nber.org · 30/09/2026

Deep learning methods are projection methods, and merging their key features will produce better solution methods, from Kenneth L. Judd and Karl Schmedders www.nber.org/papers/w35806

010

NBER @nber.org · 30/09/2026

Firm-level income tax reconciliation tables show that the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act substantially reduced the foreign tax advantages of US multinationals, from Anmol Bhandari and Ellen McGrattan www.nber.org/papers/w35805

020

NBER @nber.org · 30/09/2026

From the Beveride curve, this research constructs a Phillips curve that describes inflation as a decreasing and convex function of unemployment, such that the divine coincidence holds, from Pascal Michaillat and Emmanuel Saez www.nber.org/papers/w35804

030

NBER @nber.org · 30/09/2026

In a study of NBA data, work causally raises injury risk. Coaches rest players in response, raising player productivity, from Kala Krishna, Sergey Lychagin, and Lewis S. McLean www.nber.org/papers/w35803

031

NBER @nber.org · 30/09/2026

Evidence from Italy's Cassa per il Mezzogiorno and the US Apollo program shows industrial policies originate in political projects and last as long as their vision stays credible, from Lottie Field, @juhreka13, and Michele Zampa www.nber.org/papers/w35802

021

NBER @nber.org · 29/09/2026

On the 250th anniversary of Adam Smith’s The Wealth of Nations: What ignited humanity’s ascent from millennia of stagnation, and what are the roots of global inequality? From @GalorOded www.nber.org/papers/w35799

072

NBER @nber.org · 29/09/2026

Guideline and physician performance in atrial fibrillation depend on how bleeding harms vary across patients; robust treatment rules can perform well across plausible harm assumptions, from @jabaluck, @LeilaEcon, and David C. Chan Jr www.nber.org/papers/w35798

153

NBER @nber.org · 29/09/2026

Studying how property rights uncertainty affects prices and speculative activities in the housing markets using a natural comparison of full and limited property houses in Shenzhen, from @HanmingF, Jing Wu, and Vincent Yao www.nber.org/papers/w35797

020

NBER @nber.org · 29/09/2026

For recent college graduates, unemployment rates did not spike in summer 2026 relative to previous years’ summer months possibly due to AI effects, from @RobertFairlie6 and Jane Wu www.nber.org/papers/w35796

041

NBER @nber.org · 29/09/2026

Green innovation rises in downturns even as non-green innovation falls. A model matched to this evidence implies larger, greener subsidy effects in recessions, from @drkaenzig, @maxkonradt, Lixing Wang, and @DonghaiZhang3 www.nber.org/papers/w35795

030

NBER @nber.org · 29/09/2026

Open call for papers: Race and Stratification in the Economy. The conference will be held on April 2, 2027, in Cambridge, Massachusetts. Submissions deadline 11:59pm (EST) December 10, 2026. More info www.nber.org/race-and-str...

001

NBER @nber.org · 29/09/2026

Anticipated regulation can spur permitting without accelerating investment, as demonstrated by a Colorado case-study. This identifies a novel channel for regulatory leakage, from Anna French and Nicholas Vreugdenhil www.nber.org/papers/w35794

000

NBER @nber.org · 28/09/2026

Korea’s 1993 higher education reform markedly increased college completion, which later led to a substantial mortality reduction among the students’ aging parents, from Ah-Reum Lee, William H. Dow, and Jacqueline M. Torres Torres www.nber.org/papers/w35792

040

NBER @nber.org · 28/09/2026

Remote work post-Covid boosts employment and lowers commute time for disabled and older workers in the UK but comes with lower wages, from Ian Burn, Melissa D. Gentry, and Joanna Lahey www.nber.org/papers/w35791

0112

NBER @nber.org · 28/09/2026

Euro cash changeovers are used to test price-setting theories. The moving-boundary problem is solved analytically. Historical data from six countries support state-dependent pricing, from Fernando E. Alvarez, @dargente05, @albertocavallo, and Francesco Lippi www.nber.org/papers/w35790

010

NBER @nber.org · 28/09/2026

The text of children's books convey a broad emotional range but images mostly show happiness/calm—a mismatch that consumer demand for "positive" imagery may reinforce, from @aadukia, Matthew Bonci, Paula Dastres Gallardo, @emileigharrison, Jake Nicoll, and @TeodoraSzasz www.nber.org/papers/w35789

041

NBER @nber.org · 28/09/2026

An LLM workflow that reproduces, improves, and extends economics research has been applied to over 4,000 published replication packages, from Matthew Schwartz, Isaiah Andrews, and Jesse M. Shapiro www.nber.org/papers/w35782

0197

NBER @nber.org · 27/09/2026

Proposing to use quasi-exogenous variation in market structure to estimate equilibrium pricing policy functions, from Gautam Gowrisankaran, Christopher D. Bruegge, and Alex Gross www.nber.org/papers/w35787

030

NBER @nber.org · 27/09/2026

Using plausibly exogenous veterans’ payments, new evidence shows stimulus checks generate large, hump-shaped increases in consumption, with multipliers above 2 after a year, from Joao Guerreiro, Jonathon Hazell, Diego R. Känzig, and Ed Manuel www.nber.org/papers/w35786

040

NBER @nber.org · 27/09/2026

Studying how the US-China trade war has reshaped global trade patterns, creating significant spillovers to third countries, from Pol Antràs, Adrian Kulesza, and Andrea F. Presbitero www.nber.org/papers/w35785

021

NBER @nber.org · 27/09/2026

When a spouse becomes incapacitated, older adults use substantially more formal care and become less sensitive to its price, revealing the value of spousal care, from Itzik Fadlon, Tal Gross, Alex Hoagland, and Timothy Layton www.nber.org/papers/w35784

041

NBER @nber.org · 26/09/2026

In a new theory of bundling frictions, increasing productivity of cognitive skills explains changing patterns in within occupation wage inequality in the US, from Chris Edmond and Simon Mongey www.nber.org/papers/w35783

0101

NBER @nber.org · 26/09/2026

Studying how aggregate financial conditions shape firm insurance and, through it, labor income risk, from Maarten Meeuwis, Dimitris Papanikolaou, and Lawrence D.W. Schmidt www.nber.org/papers/w35781

031

NBER @nber.org · 26/09/2026

New evidence shows that incorporation capital requirements substantially reduce entrepreneurial entry without screening on entrepreneurial quality, from Annika Bacher, Andreas Fagereng, Marius A. K. Ring, and Ella Getz Wold www.nber.org/papers/w35780

030

NBER @nber.org · 26/09/2026

Considering official and alternative data sources for measuring and projecting the role of US manufacturing in the global semiconductor manufacturing industry, from David M. Byrne, Robert J. Kurtzman, and Heidi L. Williams www.nber.org/papers/w35779

020

NBER @nber.org · 25/09/2026

When regulation is fragmented across countries, foreign political frictions determine whether corporate stewardship or policy advocacy better addresses global externalities, from Robin Döttling, Doron Levit, Nadya Malenko, and Magdalena Rola-Janicka www.nber.org/papers/w35778

010

NBER @nber.org · 25/09/2026

Discussing how immigration affects identity, and the implications for politics, from Vasiliki Fouka and Marco Tabellini www.nber.org/papers/w35777

091

NBER @nber.org · 25/09/2026

They find that high school courses exposing students to careers in education did not increase entry into the profession, likely because course takers do not enroll in college, from Danielle Sanderson Edwards and @matthewakraft.bsky.social www.nber.org/papers/w35776

031

NBER @nber.org · 25/09/2026

Firms affected by interest deductibility limitations experience significant declines in patenting and a narrowing of the technological scope of their patent portfolios, from Xinru Chen, Mara Faccio, Stefano Manfredonia, and Jin Xu www.nber.org/papers/w35775

000

NBER @nber.org · 25/09/2026

Migrants from Austria to Germany and those from Germany to Austria both earn higher wages after moving. Gains are largest for those who stay the longest in the destination, from Weber, Card, Dauth, Frimmel, Schmieder, and Winter-Ebmer www.nber.org/papers/w35774

040

NBER @nber.org · 24/09/2026

Fertility delays compound across generations to raise age at first grandmotherhood, from Dora L. Costa and Matthew E. Kahn www.nber.org/papers/w35773

010

NBER @nber.org · 24/09/2026

After CA adopted workplace heat protections, injuries on hot days fell 15–27 percent for outdoor workers, from Olesya Fomenko, Melissa McInerney, and Sebastian Negrusa www.nber.org/papers/w35772

041

NBER @nber.org · 24/09/2026

US life insurance integrated without decentralizing: from 1888 to 1940 control of premium shifted between regions while the national share kept in-state barely moved, from Pawel Janas www.nber.org/papers/w35771

020

NBER @nber.org · 24/09/2026

Studying how advertising claims direct consumers to different customer experiences, and how prices change the available evidence, from @joshgans.bsky.social www.nber.org/papers/w35770

001

NBER @nber.org · 24/09/2026

Open call for paper submissions: The Economics of Community Colleges conference April 6-7, 2028 in Cambridge, MA. Full information www.nber.org/economics-co...

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