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Nathan Attrill

@nathanattrill.bsky.social
2.7K followers 1.3K following 794 posts

Senior Analyst at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute | Editor of ASPI’s ‘State of the Strait’ - stateofthestrait.substack.com

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Nathan Attrill @nathanattrill.bsky.social · 29/07/2025
🚨 NEW: The latest 'State of the Strait' Weekly Digest is now live: Failed recalls deepen Taiwan’s political gridlock. Plus: German mayor apologises after city suggests Taiwan's flag be removed. stateofthestrait.substack.com/p/failed-rec...
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Nathan Attrill @nathanattrill.bsky.social · 24/07/2025
The Taiwan scenarios 4: The catastrophe. The world must convince China that the road to Taipei is lined with peril, not prizes. If Beijing acts, it faces the wrecking of its global standing. Preventing conflict is not Taiwan’s burden alone. www.aspistrategist.org.au/the-taiwan-s...
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Nathan Attrill @nathanattrill.bsky.social · 23/07/2025
The Taiwan scenarios 3: Day zero. Taiwan would not just collapse, capitulate or hand itself over. While it has been outpaced by the scale of China’s military developments, it is more capable than many assume. www.aspistrategist.org.au/the-taiwan-s...
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Nathan Attrill @nathanattrill.bsky.social · 22/07/2025
The Taiwan scenarios 2: Warning signs. At first, it may not be easy to see what’s afoot. The difference between China’s routine coercion of Taiwan and early signs of serious escalation to take control of the island may not be clear. www.aspistrategist.org.au/the-taiwan-s...
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Nathan Attrill @nathanattrill.bsky.social · 21/07/2025
🚨 NEW: The latest 'State of the Strait' Weekly Digest is now live: Lai to visit Paraguay via U.S. next month. Plus: Beijing vows punishment over Taiwan’s tightened residency rules for mainland spouses. stateofthestrait.substack.com/p/lai-to-vis...
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Nathan Attrill @nathanattrill.bsky.social · 21/07/2025
The Taiwan Scenarios 1: Subversion, Quarantine, Blockade, Invasion. ASPI has wargamed President Xi Jinping’s options for subjugating Taiwan. We tried four scenarios, the details of which will be presented in this and three more daily articles this week. www.aspistrategist.org.au/the-taiwan-s...
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Reposted by Nathan Attrill
Australian Strategic Policy Institute @aspi-org.bsky.social · 17/07/2025
'International partners have begun to pay closer attention to Taiwan’s experience. Officials in Taipei have shared intelligence with counterparts abroad and positioned their counter-espionage campaign as part of a broader effort to resist authoritarian influence,' writes Nathan Attrill.
aspistrategist.org.au
How Taipei is fighting back against Beijing’s spies | The Strategist
Taiwan has dramatically stepped-up efforts to address what authorities describe as a growing espionage challenge linked to China. In 2024, 64 individuals were charged with espionage-related offences—m...
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Nathan Attrill @nathanattrill.bsky.social · 17/07/2025
Taiwan has dramatically stepped-up efforts to address what authorities describe as a growing espionage challenge linked to China. In 2024, 64 individuals were charged with espionage-related offences—more than in the previous two years combined. www.aspistrategist.org.au/how-taipei-i...
aspistrategist.org.au
How Taipei is fighting back against Beijing’s spies | The Strategist
Taiwan has dramatically stepped-up efforts to address what authorities describe as a growing espionage challenge linked to China. In 2024, 64 individuals were charged with espionage-related offences—m...
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Nathan Attrill @nathanattrill.bsky.social · 15/07/2025
🚨 NEW: The latest 'State of the Strait' Weekly Digest is now live: Allies resist US push for Taiwan war commitments. Plus: China bans dual-use exports to eight Taiwan defense entities. stateofthestrait.substack.com/p/allies-res...
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Nathan Attrill @nathanattrill.bsky.social · 09/07/2025
Beijing’s coercion campaign against Taiwan is entering a more litigious phase. While military drills and cognitive warfare remain staples of its coercive playbook, China is now intensifying the systematic use of law to target Taiwan’s democracy. www.aspistrategist.org.au/chinas-taiwa...
aspistrategist.org.au
China’s ‘Taiwanese separatist’ hotline shows expanding lawfare strategy | The Strategist
Beijing’s coercion campaign against Taiwan is entering a more litigious phase. While military drills and cognitive warfare remain staples of its coercive playbook, China is now intensifying the system...
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Reposted by Nathan Attrill
Fergus Ryan @fergus.bsky.social · 09/07/2025
China wants to add AI to the FTA with Australia. Here’s why that’s a dangerous idea, & what’s really at stake if we say yes. AI isn’t just another export sector. It’s infrastructure, ideology, & surveillance all rolled into one. My take (gift link): www.theaustralian.co...
theaustralian.com.au
Opening systems to Chinese AI is a risk we can’t ignore
There’s one thing China’s ambassador to Australia got right in a call to add artificial intelligence to the China-Australia Free Trade Agreement: “China has always viewed Australia and China-Australia relations from a strategic and long-term perspective.”
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Nathan Attrill @nathanattrill.bsky.social · 08/07/2025
🚨 NEW: The latest 'State of the Strait' Weekly Digest is now live: 'Han Kuang 41' exercises to simulate PLA invasion. Plus: Fear of China keeps world timid on Taiwan, UK ex-defense chief says. stateofthestrait.substack.com/p/han-kuang-...
stateofthestrait.substack.com
'Han Kuang 41' exercises to simulate PLA invasion
Plus: Fear of China keeps world timid on Taiwan, UK ex-defense chief says
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Reposted by Nathan Attrill
Fergus Ryan @fergus.bsky.social · 03/07/2025
I just donated to cover China Digital Times’ @chinadigitaltimes.net server costs for the year. As a China researcher, I rely on their work heavily. If you care about cutting through censorship and propaganda, consider supporting them too. giving.chinadigitaltimes.net/page/FUNGRHB...
giving.chinadigitaltimes.net
Keep CDT Online: Donate for Server Expenses
China Digital Times (CDT) is a non-profit organization that relies on institutional and individual donations to sustain our operations. In recent months, we have lost a significant portion of our inst...
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Nathan Attrill @nathanattrill.bsky.social · 01/07/2025
The idea that Taiwan might one day declare independence misses the core of the cross-strait issue. For many Taiwanese, especially those born after martial law, independence isn’t a destination; it’s the condition they already live under. www.aspistrategist.org.au/every-day-is...
aspistrategist.org.au
Every day is Independence Day in Taiwan | The Strategist
In a speech kicking off his ‘10 Talks on the Country’ series on 22 June, Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te declared that Taiwan ‘is of course a country’, citing its democratic system and separate histo...
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Nathan Attrill @nathanattrill.bsky.social · 01/07/2025
🚨 NEW: The latest 'State of the Strait' Weekly Digest is now live: Taiwan VP defiant after foiled Chinese plot in Prague. Plus: Taiwan puts anti-dumping duties on Chinese beer and steel. stateofthestrait.substack.com/p/taiwan-vp-...
stateofthestrait.substack.com
Taiwan VP defiant after foiled Chinese plot in Prague
Plus: Taiwan puts anti-dumping duties on Chinese beer and steel
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Reposted by Nathan Attrill
Australian Strategic Policy Institute @aspi-org.bsky.social · 25/06/2025
'China’s use of trade bans and incentives has often been surgically targeted at politically sensitive constituencies, especially rural districts with high concentrations of fruit and fish farmers known to lean toward Taiwan’s Democratic Progressive Party,' writes @nathanattrill.bsky.social.
aspistrategist.org.au
Beijing’s economic playbook for Taiwan: big carrots and small sticks | The Strategist
Beijing’s approach to economic coercion against Taiwan is less about brute force and more about baiting. While China has long threatened economic punishment to deter what it sees as separatist behavio...
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Nathan Attrill @nathanattrill.bsky.social · 25/06/2025
While China has long threatened economic punishment to deter what it sees as separatist behaviour, the past several years have shown a clear pattern: big carrots, but small sticks. www.aspistrategist.org.au/beijings-eco...
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Nathan Attrill @nathanattrill.bsky.social · 24/06/2025
🚨 NEW: The latest 'State of the Strait' Weekly Digest is now live: Taiwan’s recall elections could reshape its China policy Plus: UK warship's passage through Taiwan Strait monitored by PLA. stateofthestrait.substack.com/p/taiwans-re...
stateofthestrait.substack.com
Taiwan’s recall elections could reshape its China policy
Plus: UK warship's passage through Taiwan Strait monitored by PLA
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Nathan Attrill @nathanattrill.bsky.social · 17/06/2025
🚨 NEW: The latest 'State of the Strait' Weekly Digest is now live: Huawei and SMIC blacklisted as Taiwan seeks to guard critical tech. Plus: Taiwan defense minister says 2 carriers in Pacific show China's expansionist agenda. stateofthestrait.substack.com/p/huawei-and...
stateofthestrait.substack.com
Huawei and SMIC blacklisted as Taiwan seeks to guard critical tech
Plus: Taiwan defense minister says 2 carriers in Pacific show China's expansionist agenda
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Reposted by Nathan Attrill
Australian Strategic Policy Institute @aspi-org.bsky.social · 12/06/2025
'In the contest between Taiwan’s limited resources and China’s coercive toolkit, the ground is shifting. The next defection may not be a surprise; it may be confirmation that Beijing’s long game is working,' writes @nathanattrill.bsky.social.
aspistrategist.org.au
Taiwan has 12 diplomatic partners left. Who’ll drop it next? | The Strategist
Beneath Taiwan’s high-profile fight for global recognition lies a parallel contest in capitals scattered across the Caribbean and the Pacific. This is Beijing’s relentless campaign to isolate Taiwan d...
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Nathan Attrill @nathanattrill.bsky.social · 12/06/2025
Since 2016, Taiwan has lost the recognition of 10 countries to China; just 12 remain. The question is not whether that number will fall again, but which will be next. www.aspistrategist.org.au/taiwan-has-1...
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Reposted by Nathan Attrill
Niao Collective @niaocollective.bsky.social · 11/06/2025
Ok.
The national security police said those who have downloaded the app should “uninstall it immediately” and urged the public not to provide funding for the game, for example, by making in-app purchases.
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Nathan Attrill @nathanattrill.bsky.social · 11/06/2025
🚨 NEW: The latest 'State of the Strait' Weekly Digest is now live: Lai bolsters internal security against Chinese influence. Plus: Taiwan Communist Party leaders found not guilty in infiltration case. stateofthestrait.substack.com/p/lai-bolste...
stateofthestrait.substack.com
Lai bolsters internal security against Chinese influence
Plus: Taiwan Communist Party leaders found not guilty in infiltration case
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Nathan Attrill @nathanattrill.bsky.social · 05/06/2025
A so-called "high-powered" group of former political leaders have publicly urged Prime Minister Christopher Luxon to restate New Zealand’s commitment to the China relationship. www.thepost.co.nz/politics/360...
thepost.co.nz
High-powered former political leaders write letter to Luxon on China
A high-powered group of former political leaders have publicly urged Prime Minister Christopher Luxon to restate New Zealand’s commitment to China.
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Reposted by Nathan Attrill
Fergus Ryan @fergus.bsky.social · 04/06/2025
CCP mouthpiece Andy Boreham posted about the Tiananmen Square massacre, then deleted it. Again. He pulled the same stunt last year. You’d think by now he’d know what his handlers will and won’t tolerate. But nope.
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Nathan Attrill @nathanattrill.bsky.social · 03/06/2025
🚨 NEW: The latest 'State of the Strait' Weekly Digest is now live: Hegseth’s Taiwan warnings offer little new insight. Plus: China accuses Taiwan-linked group of cyberattack on mainland tech company. stateofthestrait.substack.com/p/hegseths-t...
stateofthestrait.substack.com
Hegseth’s Taiwan warnings offer little new insight
Plus: China accuses Taiwan-linked group of cyberattack on mainland tech company
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Nathan Attrill @nathanattrill.bsky.social · 03/06/2025
The decision in 1971 was about representation, not about sovereignty. It was a political resolution about which government should hold China’s UN seat, not a legal ruling on the status of Taiwan. www.aspistrategist.org.au/un-resolutio...
aspistrategist.org.au
UN Resolution 2758 was never about Taiwan. Beijing just pretends it was | The Strategist
Beijing’s campaign to erase Taiwan from the international system is built on a lie. Beijing routinely claims that United Nations General Assembly Resolution 2758, passed in 1971, settled the issue of ...
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Reposted by Nathan Attrill
Australian Strategic Policy Institute @aspi-org.bsky.social · 03/06/2025
In a new Strategist special report, Bethany Allen, Danielle Cave and Adam Ziogas examine a major British university’s links to Chinese and Russian entities sanctioned for supporting Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and assisting China’s military modernisation and human rights violations. Read it now ⤵️
aspistrategist.org.au
A British university’s technology entanglements with Russia and China | The Strategist
A major British research university’s joint venture campus in China maintains partnerships and close links with entities sanctioned by Britain, the US, EU and others for supporting Russia’s invasion o...
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Nathan Attrill @nathanattrill.bsky.social · 27/05/2025
🚨 NEW: The latest 'State of the Strait' Weekly Digest is now live: Lai’s one-year address omits China and focuses on resilience. Plus: US lawmakers press hotel giants over ‘Taiwan, China’ label. stateofthestrait.substack.com/p/lais-one-y...
stateofthestrait.substack.com
Lai’s one-year address omits China and focuses on resilience
Plus: US lawmakers press hotel giants over ‘Taiwan, China’ label
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Nathan Attrill @nathanattrill.bsky.social · 26/05/2025
Through a mix of subsidised tours, university scholarships, TikTok-style propaganda and influencer outreach, Beijing is trying to win over the generation in Taiwan that has grown up with democracy, freedom and a deepening sense of Taiwanese identity separate from China. tinyurl.com/47pxrcub
aspistrategist.org.au
China’s love-bombing of Gen Z Taiwanese has its limits | The Strategist
Through a mix of subsidised tours, university scholarships, TikTok-style propaganda and influencer outreach, Beijing is trying to win over the generation in Taiwan that has grown up with democracy, fr...
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Australian Strategic Policy Institute @aspi-org.bsky.social · 23/05/2025
'Australia may have good reasons to recalibrate its foreign and defence policies in the era of Donald Trump but these don’t include fearing that most Chinese Australians would fail to support Australia standing up to China as and when it must,' writes John Fitzgerald.
aspistrategist.org.au
Politicians, speak openly about China. Chinese-Australians won’t mind | The Strategist
Beijing would have us believe that Australian politicians cannot speak openly and honestly about China’s geopolitical ambitions without fear of losing Chinese-Australian voters. Don’t fall for it: Chi...
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Reposted by Nathan Attrill
Fergus Ryan @fergus.bsky.social · 23/05/2025
The EU just hit TikTok over transparency failures but still hasn't acted on X. If Brussels wants the DSA to have teeth, it can't keep stalling. My latest in The Strategist: www.aspistrategist.o...
aspistrategist.org.au
Regulating X isn’t censorship. It’s self-defence | The Strategist
In 2024, during the fiercely fought US presidential election campaign, current US Vice President JD Vance made an extraordinary ultimatum: if Europe wanted the United States to remain committed to NATO, it should stop regulating ...
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Reposted by Nathan Attrill
Fergus Ryan @fergus.bsky.social · 21/05/2025
I’ve started pulling together a list of Australian federal politicians on Bluesky: docs.google.com/spreadsheets... #auspol It’s very much a work in progress. If I’ve missed anyone, let me know here or drop a comment in the doc.
docs.google.com
Australian_Federal_MPs_on_Bluesky
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Nathan Attrill @nathanattrill.bsky.social · 20/05/2025
🚨 NEW: The latest 'State of the Strait' Weekly Digest is now live: Lai seeks strategic chip alliance to de-risk from China. Plus: Two Taiwan allies attend Beijing forum as China steps up diplomatic pressure. stateofthestrait.substack.com/p/lai-seeks-...
stateofthestrait.substack.com
Lai seeks strategic chip alliance to de-risk from China
Plus: Two Taiwan allies attend Beijing forum as China steps up diplomatic pressure
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Reposted by Nathan Attrill
Australian Strategic Policy Institute @aspi-org.bsky.social · 14/05/2025
'The Lai administration has adopted largely tactical responses to the legislature’s actions, including referring laws to the same constitutional court the legislature seeks to undermine,' writes Mark Harrison.
aspistrategist.org.au
The Lai Ching-te government shifts gears | The Strategist
Complex developments in Taiwan’s domestic legislative politics may affect the regional security outlook over the next 12 months. Since his election in 2024, Taiwan president Lai Ching-te has upheld th...
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Nathan Attrill @nathanattrill.bsky.social · 14/05/2025
Nathan Attrill from @aspi-org.bsky.social (ASPI), a think tank based in Canberra, pointed out that Taiwan’s disputes over its defense and national resilience budget are increasingly weakening Taiwan’s ability to respond to threats from China. www.cna.com.tw/news/aopl/20...
cna.com.tw
澳洲智庫:中國威脅下 台灣須速解決國安預算爭議 | 國際 | 中央社 CNA
澳洲戰略政策研究所分析師厄崔爾向中央社指出,台灣朝野必須及早就國防預算及國土韌性預算爭議達成共識,否則恐怕影響到台灣是否能有效爭取包括澳洲等夥伴的持續支持。
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Reposted by Nathan Attrill
Australian Strategic Policy Institute @aspi-org.bsky.social · 13/05/2025
The State of the Strait Weekly Digest is out now - check your inboxes! • Subscribe here: stateofthestrait.substack.com/subscribe • Read this week's digest online: stateofthestrait.substack.com/p/former-tai...
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Nathan Attrill @nathanattrill.bsky.social · 13/05/2025
🚨 NEW: The latest 'State of the Strait' Weekly Digest is now live: Former Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen visits Europe. Plus: Taiwan seeks UNESCO status for historic railway via Japan. stateofthestrait.substack.com/p/former-tai...
stateofthestrait.substack.com
Former Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen visits Europe
Plus: Taiwan seeks UNESCO status for historic railway via Japan
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Reposted by Nathan Attrill
Australian Strategic Policy Institute @aspi-org.bsky.social · 09/05/2025
'The perception of alignment with Beijing has deepened as the KMT, following the end of pandemic restrictions, resumed a series of high-profile visits to China, framing them as efforts to promote dialogue and improve cross-strait ties,' writes @nathanattrill.bsky.social.
aspistrategist.org.au
Taiwan’s polarised politics risks undermining its resilience and security | The Strategist
Taiwan’s opposition parties—including the once-dominant Kuomintang (KMT)—now wield real power in the legislature for the first time since 2012. But their recent actions have cast serious doubt on thei...
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Nathan Attrill @nathanattrill.bsky.social · 09/05/2025
From me: Taiwan’s opposition parties—including the once-dominant KMT—now wield real power in the legislature. But their recent actions have cast serious doubt on their commitment to Taiwan’s long-term security and its ability to withstand Beijing’s growing campaign of coercion. tinyurl.com/rrbph3mk
aspistrategist.org.au
Taiwan’s polarised politics risks undermining its resilience and security | The Strategist
Taiwan’s opposition parties—including the once-dominant Kuomintang (KMT)—now wield real power in the legislature for the first time since 2012. But their recent actions have cast serious doubt on thei...
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Nathan Attrill @nathanattrill.bsky.social · 08/05/2025
Dr. Nathan Attrill, China analyst at the @aspi-org.bsky.social, said, “Her participation in a democracy summit, especially in Europe, will irritate Beijing, which remains highly sensitive to growing European engagement with Taiwan.” www.taiwannews.com.tw/news/6104155
taiwannews.com.tw
Tsai's Denmark visit will likely rile China | Taiwan News | May. 8, 2025 10:49
Tsai first former Taiwanese president to visit Denmark | May. 8, 2025 10:49
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Nathan Attrill @nathanattrill.bsky.social · 06/05/2025
🚨 NEW: The latest 'State of the Strait' Weekly Digest is now live: Taiwan fights for a voice at the World Health Assembly. Plus: Somalia bars Taiwanese passport holders from entering the country. stateofthestrait.substack.com/p/taiwan-fig...
stateofthestrait.substack.com
Taiwan fights for a voice at the World Health Assembly
Plus: Somalia bars Taiwanese passport holders from entering the country
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Reposted by Nathan Attrill
Bethany Allen 貝書穎 @bethanyallen.bsky.social · 29/04/2025
I'm quoted in this New York Times article, about Trump's fight with China. www.nytimes.com/2025/04/26/o...
nytimes.com
Opinion | Trump Is Breaking the Rule That Every Barroom Brawler Knows
Don’t drop your guard while picking fights around the globe.
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Nathan Attrill @nathanattrill.bsky.social · 29/04/2025
🚨 NEW: The latest 'State of the Strait' Weekly Digest is now live: Taipei watching Vatican-China ties closely amid papal transition. Plus: Taiwan's Mainland Affairs Council to probe ‘united front’ writing contest. stateofthestrait.substack.com/p/taipei-wat...
stateofthestrait.substack.com
Taipei watching Vatican-China ties closely amid papal transition
Plus: Taiwan's Mainland Affairs Council to probe ‘united front’ writing contest
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Nathan Attrill @nathanattrill.bsky.social · 22/04/2025
🚨 NEW: The latest 'State of the Strait' Weekly Digest is now live: Lai launches cybersecurity overhaul as China’s attacks surge. Plus: Beijing praises Cambodia for deporting Taiwanese nationals to China. open.substack.com/pub/stateoft...
open.substack.com
Lai launches cybersecurity overhaul as China’s attacks surge
Plus: Beijing praises Cambodia for deporting Taiwanese nationals to China
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Reposted by Nathan Attrill
Australian Strategic Policy Institute @aspi-org.bsky.social · 16/04/2025
'Taiwan has an inadvertent, rarely acknowledged role in global affairs: it’s a kind of sponge, soaking up much of China’s political, military and diplomatic efforts,' writes @nathanattrill.bsky.social.
aspistrategist.org.au
Taiwan: the sponge that soaks up Chinese power | The Strategist
Taiwan has an inadvertent, rarely acknowledged role in global affairs: it’s a kind of sponge, soaking up much of China’s political, military and diplomatic efforts. Taiwan soaks up Chinese power of pe...
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Nathan Attrill @nathanattrill.bsky.social · 15/04/2025
🚨 NEW: The latest 'State of the Strait' Weekly Digest is now live: Taiwan uncovers more deep Chinese spy networks. Plus: Taiwan prosecutors indict Chinese boat captain over severed undersea cable. stateofthestrait.substack.com/p/taiwan-unc...
stateofthestrait.substack.com
Taiwan uncovers more deep Chinese spy networks
Plus: Taiwan prosecutors indict Chinese boat captain over severed undersea cable
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Nathan Attrill @nathanattrill.bsky.social · 08/04/2025
🚨 NEW: The latest 'State of the Strait' Weekly Digest is now live: PLA encircles Taiwan as Beijing brands Lai a 'parasite'. Plus: The KMT and CCP meet in China to declare Taiwan "family, not enemy". stateofthestrait.substack.com/p/pla-encirc...
stateofthestrait.substack.com
PLA encircles Taiwan as Beijing brands Lai a 'parasite'
Plus: The KMT and CCP meet in China to declare Taiwan "family, not enemy"
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