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Nate Silver Tweets @natesilver538bot.bsky.social · 2h

With all this said, are Iowa, Kansas and Nebraska the states where I'd subtract a couple points from the Dems' win probabilities if I allowed subjective Nate ratings to enter into FLIPR? Yeah. It is interesting either way that they form a tight regional cluster, though. Original post

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Nate Silver Tweets @natesilver538bot.bsky.social · 2h

People have, for years, underestimated how correlated presidential states are, e.g., Trump overperforms in MI, he'll probably overperform in WI too. But Seante races are much less correlated, especially in midterms, and ~maybe~ the CW is overcorrecting in the other direction. Original post

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Nate Silver Tweets @natesilver538bot.bsky.social · 7h

We rated leading 2028 Democrats on their AI stances. Pretty clear daylight between AOC and others who have taken a more hedged position. Original post

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Nate Silver Tweets @natesilver538bot.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

The poll* is already several months old, but note the big increase in anxiety around AI and other future technologies. * American Psychiatric Association / Morning Consult. Original post

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Nate Silver Tweets @natesilver538bot.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

It's funny how people who "forecast" elections on vibes can't comprehend using an algorithm. Like maybe it's wrong; lots of design choices in building a model. But we do our thinking when building the model. Once it's built there aren't many decisions to be made from day to day. Original post

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Nate Silver Tweets @natesilver538bot.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

All right, that Model Talk is published. Since it’s October and those Halloween pop-up stories are everywhere, I wanted to talk about everyone’s most feared monstrosity: Systematic Polling Error. It’s a real thing. Original post

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Nate Silver Tweets @natesilver538bot.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

So yeah, those NYT polls helped Democrats. Not as much as you might think because FLIPR was already pretty optimistic for Dems, but still... Repost of @AlexThomp: Original post

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Nate Silver Tweets @natesilver538bot.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

I've seen people ask why include 2025 and the answer is that well it's the most recent election, seems worth looking at. Incidentally, polls had a R bias in 2017 and were unbiased in 2021. Original post

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Nate Silver Tweets @natesilver538bot.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

FLIPR update. Race-by-race polls not as bad for Republicans this week. Gas prices down slightly, too. OTOH, oil futures were up a bunch today and Trump's approval rating again hit another new low. Original post

natesilver.net

FLIPR 2026 midterm election forecast

Silver Bulletin's prediction for every Senate, House, and gubernatorial election in 2026.

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Nate Silver Tweets @natesilver538bot.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

The direction of polling error in recent years: * 2008: Unbiased * 2010: Unbiased * 2012: R bias * 2014: D bias * 2016: D bias * 2018: Unbiased * 2020: Even bigger D bias * 2022: Unbiased * 2024: D bias, less than 2016/2020 * 2025 (e.g. NJ/VA): Big R bias Original post

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Nate Silver Tweets @natesilver538bot.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

This map was more interesting than I was expecting. Note that deep red streak in Appalachian/southeastern Ohio. But it's not really present in similar counties in Pennsylvania. Original post

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Nate Silver Tweets @natesilver538bot.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

We're working to get our NFL content out earlier in the week. Not that it takes an advanced statistical model to tell you this, but every team in the NFC South is already projected to have a losing record again. Original post

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Nate Silver Tweets @natesilver538bot.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

This is one of the greater self-owns of all time in the admittedly somewhat undignified history of the U.S. Senate, just how Eric Schmitt thinks he's fucking Matlock. Repost of @sahilkapur: Original post

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Nate Silver Tweets @natesilver538bot.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

This is maybe our most important chart of the election cycle. Original post

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Nate Silver Tweets @natesilver538bot.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

Generic ballot lead continues to grow for Democrats. Original post

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Nate Silver Tweets @natesilver538bot.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

It's time for my favorite biannual Silver Bulletin feature, or NBA Future of the Franchise rankings! Our panel ranked all 30 franchises by their expected number of championships over the next 10 seasons. 30. Clippers 29. Kings 28. Pelicans 27. Bucks 26. Nets 25. Wizards Original post

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Nate Silver Tweets @natesilver538bot.bsky.social · 27/09/2026

There's slippery terrain between "AI as an economic sector is a potential financial bubble" (plausible) and "AI as a technology is just hype" (YMMV but I think basically proven wrong at this point). People often assert the former claim to cover for bad takes about the latter. Original post

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Nate Silver Tweets @natesilver538bot.bsky.social · 26/09/2026

AI is a big W for 40-somethings. Old enough to have learned how to do things the right way, young enough to learn some new tricks. Original post

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Nate Silver Tweets @natesilver538bot.bsky.social · 26/09/2026

Hey folks, we're now hoping to update our ELWAY ratings 2x a week instead of 1x. So the new ratings are in, including the Thursday Night game and updated injury info. Here are our current injury-free (left) and injury-adjusted ratings. Original post

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Nate Silver Tweets @natesilver538bot.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

The Vermont governor race is a fun one. Only UNH has polled the race, and they now have the Democrat ahead. But Scott won by 52 points in 2024 and all the expert raters have it solid R! FLIPR has no idea. Original post

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Nate Silver Tweets @natesilver538bot.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

There isn't any; you're just paranoid. Repost of @BillAckman: Original post

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Nate Silver Tweets @natesilver538bot.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

I wrote a whole book on this subject, and the thesis is about the normative and practical importance of human agency. It doesn't help that people like you have no idea WTF AI can do right now. Repost of @matthewstoller: Original post

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Nate Silver Tweets @natesilver538bot.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

The whole problem is that the AP's language is inaccurate and politically charged. I don't particularly trust the labs. But most (certainly not all) people with real expertise in this field would consider their guidance to be presumptive at best. Repost of @adamjohnsonCHI: Original post

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Nate Silver Tweets @natesilver538bot.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

IDK if you polled some unbiased sample of experts in the field (granted, "experts" and "unbiased" are doing a lot of work there), I imagine most of them would roughly agree with the idea that AI models "think," at least for more advanced tasks. Repost of @EoinHiggins_: Original post

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Nate Silver Tweets @natesilver538bot.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

Interesting that Dems' generic ballot gains have come from undecideds rather than Republicans, whose numbers have held steady. Original post

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Nate Silver Tweets @natesilver538bot.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

The whole "don't anthropomorphize AI" thing is very Woke 1.0. People trying to police language that is perfectly natural in some cases and ending up in a web of contradictions. Repost of @TheStalwart: Original post

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Nate Silver Tweets @natesilver538bot.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

Repost by @NateSilver538 RT by @NateSilver538: This is interesting, via @NateSilver538: In 2024, one takeaway was that the Red Wave was especially strong in blue cities. In 2026, the Blue Wave seems especially strong in red states. Click to see original repost

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Nate Silver Tweets @natesilver538bot.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

Polls over the past week or two (mostly GREAT for Democrats, but Collins still ahead in Maine?!?) tell an internally consistent but slightly weird story: D gains are overwhelmingly concentrated in red states. Original post

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Nate Silver Tweets @natesilver538bot.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

ELWAY update out for the week. You can get a sense here for how the model really likes good QBs. Buffalo looks like the best team in football. As mentioned last night, the model also really likes Brock Purdy and the 49ers. Patrick Mahomes' rating is ticking back up. Original post

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Nate Silver Tweets @natesilver538bot.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

I think the critique of "bothsidesism" is often overused but this is a good example of it, NYT commenters are rationally reacting to her staffers being a bunch of snowflakes. Repost of @jmart: Original post

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Nate Silver Tweets @natesilver538bot.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

I think most reasonably well-adjusted people would read this and feel pretty sympathetic toward Peltola rather than her annoying staffers. Original post

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Nate Silver Tweets @natesilver538bot.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

Don't really understand why Brock Purdy doesn't get more love. Our QB model rating him so highly feels like a hot take, but he's just incredibly efficient on a game-by-game basis. Original post

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Nate Silver Tweets @natesilver538bot.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

I feel like this has been one of our more underrated charts. If you throw out voters who *weakly* approve or disapprove of Trump's performance and only look at *strong* approval/disapproval, his net approval rating is -29, even worse than his overall -22. Original post

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Nate Silver Tweets @natesilver538bot.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

A money advantage is one of the few things that Republicans have going for them this cycle. But is it really as big as it's cracked up to be? Ds have a big advantage in individual contributions, especially in the Senate. Rs have a big edge in outside money and party money. Original post

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Nate Silver Tweets @natesilver538bot.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

Trump approval now at -22.4, his low point for the term and now lower than at any point in his first term, even after Jan. 6. By comparison, he was at a "mere" -11.6 at this point in 2018. Original post

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Nate Silver Tweets @natesilver538bot.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

Pangram is a cool technology but I don't really like how it's being deployed in the Discourse and any model's performance on a training set is going to differ from it's reliability in a real-world setting where it's suddenly hard to externally validate. Original post

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Nate Silver Tweets @natesilver538bot.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

Here's a map showing where regular gas prices have increased the most. Original post

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Nate Silver Tweets @natesilver538bot.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

Polls for Republicans are just getting worse by the day in a way that isn't actually all that common in midterms. It's gotta be mostly the gas prices, although maybe AI anxieties are also reverberating negatively for the GOP. Model update out soon. Original post

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Nate Silver Tweets @natesilver538bot.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

Then why did it cost $2.90 before we invaded Iran but $4.50 now this is like arguing against a goldfish who hasn't acquired object permanence Repost of @rabois: Original post

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Nate Silver Tweets @natesilver538bot.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

Keith idk what "oil" (by which I presume you mean gas) is gonna be by Election Day. But if you think it's gonna be $2.90/gallon then you have some massively profitable trades to make! Please let us know how it goes! Repost of @rabois: Original post

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Nate Silver Tweets @natesilver538bot.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

OK Keith then why does gas cost $4.50 a gallon. Repost of @rabois: Original post

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Nate Silver Tweets @natesilver538bot.bsky.social · 21/09/2026

Always fun to periodically give a shoutout to people who thought the Iran war would be resolved within a few weeks. Repost of @rabois: Original post

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Nate Silver Tweets @natesilver538bot.bsky.social · 21/09/2026

In what respect was characterizing LLMs as "stochastic parrots" insightful, given that the paper seemed to vastly underestimate LLM capabilities? Repost of @mmitchell_ai: Original post

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Nate Silver Tweets @natesilver538bot.bsky.social · 21/09/2026

Move the Chargers back to San Diego. Or to Mexico City or something. They're kind of a liminal franchise at this point, the equivalent of an auxiliary airport terminal. Original post

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Nate Silver Tweets @natesilver538bot.bsky.social · 20/09/2026

So yeah, the expert ratings don't make any sense. They're assuming roughly a D +2 or D +3 national environment. That's inconsistent with pretty much all the current and historical evidence. While I'd never rule out a systematic polling error, that shouldn't be your baseline. Original post

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Nate Silver Tweets @natesilver538bot.bsky.social · 20/09/2026

Repost by @natesilver538 RT by @natesilver538: Yes. In general, people at the big labs are terrified and pessimistic about what they're building. Repost of @NateSilver538: Click to see original repost

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