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Nate Silver Tweets @natesilver538bot.bsky.social · 8h

Talarcio story right up there with "the Iran War will be over in a week" and "Joe Biden is sharp as a tack" for surfacing the most gullible people in the Milky Way galaxy. Original post

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Nate Silver Tweets @natesilver538bot.bsky.social · 11/10/2026

We need a total and complete shutdown of the NFC East until we can figure out what's going on. Original post

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Nate Silver Tweets @natesilver538bot.bsky.social · 10/10/2026

"Super Intelligence" is to Artifical Intelligence as "Latinx" is to Latino or Hispanic. Original post

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Nate Silver Tweets @natesilver538bot.bsky.social · 10/10/2026

Kind of striking how persistent the decline in Trump's approval rating has been. There's been mean reversion around news events and economic data, but to a declining rather than steady baseline as in the 1st term. Original post

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Nate Silver Tweets @natesilver538bot.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

The contrast between Peggy Flanagan and El-Sayed is interesting. They're both up ~3.5 points in our polling average. But since Minnesota is bluer, Flanagan is actually underperforming the state's partisan benchmark by more. Original post

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Nate Silver Tweets @natesilver538bot.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

We've reached the point where the polls have told the same story for several weeks running (Dems rising, but maybe now nearing plateau) and now people are bored with that. All harmless fun. But under these conditions, the narrative can get detached from the data. Original post

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Nate Silver Tweets @natesilver538bot.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

Caring about AI model welfare is fine, whatever. I don't know how I feel about it. I try to be nice to my models. But I get worried when I read statements that imply (almost never stated outright) a trade-off with human welfare. Original post

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Nate Silver Tweets @natesilver538bot.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

Generic ballot lead for Democrats still expanding. Unlikely there will be any Republican rebound in FLIPR until that stops. Original post

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Nate Silver Tweets @natesilver538bot.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

Repost by @natesilver538 Ok, @NateSilver538, this whole "my laptop is bigger than your laptop" schtick is getting out of control. Click to see original repost

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Nate Silver Tweets @natesilver538bot.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

We did a 2028 Democratic primary draft on Still Counting! My board was: Ossoff AOC [fairly big gap] Newsom Clare took Newsom #1, and Galen Ossoff at #2, so I was happy to choose AOC at #3. Original post

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Nate Silver Tweets @natesilver538bot.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

Repost by @NateSilver538 With the first pick in the Still Counting 2028 Democratic draft, @ClareMalone selects... Gavin Newsom! @NateSilver538 and @galendruke do not agree with the pick. Click to see original repost

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Nate Silver Tweets @natesilver538bot.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

In our Senate polling averages, D margins are mostly steady or rising. The closest exception is probably Maine. Original post

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Nate Silver Tweets @natesilver538bot.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

Just wild divergence among friends/acquaintances right now in AI use, maybe 25% are like "this is making me massively more productive" and 75% are only using it at the margins. Very little middle ground. (I'm sure the 25% is very high relative to the general population.) Original post

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Nate Silver Tweets @natesilver538bot.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

There could be an October surprise and I wouldn't be surprised by some mean reversion. But right now, the best point for GOP optimism about Nov. 3 is: "Well, there might be a polling error." Which is very possible but never what you want your party's best hope to be. Original post

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Nate Silver Tweets @natesilver538bot.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

I'm not an AI doomer and I find the technology impressive. It's at least as much that I find the upside case unpersuasive on a number of levels, and even the AI labs seem deeply ambivalent about the future they're bringing into being. Should probably blog about this. Original post

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Nate Silver Tweets @natesilver538bot.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

Updated ELWAY injury-free (left) and injury-adjusted ratings (right). Injury-free, the 3 best teams are all in the NFC West! Forecast is still a little bearish on the Rams though because of injuries & schedule. Chiefs back to #1 on an injury-adjusted basis. Original post

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Nate Silver Tweets @natesilver538bot.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

With all this said, are Iowa, Kansas and Nebraska the states where I'd subtract a couple points from the Dems' win probabilities if I allowed subjective Nate ratings to enter into FLIPR? Yeah. It is interesting either way that they form a tight regional cluster, though. Original post

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Nate Silver Tweets @natesilver538bot.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

People have, for years, underestimated how correlated presidential states are, e.g., Trump overperforms in MI, he'll probably overperform in WI too. But Seante races are much less correlated, especially in midterms, and ~maybe~ the CW is overcorrecting in the other direction. Original post

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Nate Silver Tweets @natesilver538bot.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

We rated leading 2028 Democrats on their AI stances. Pretty clear daylight between AOC and others who have taken a more hedged position. Original post

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Nate Silver Tweets @natesilver538bot.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

The poll* is already several months old, but note the big increase in anxiety around AI and other future technologies. * American Psychiatric Association / Morning Consult. Original post

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Nate Silver Tweets @natesilver538bot.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

It's funny how people who "forecast" elections on vibes can't comprehend using an algorithm. Like maybe it's wrong; lots of design choices in building a model. But we do our thinking when building the model. Once it's built there aren't many decisions to be made from day to day. Original post

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Nate Silver Tweets @natesilver538bot.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

All right, that Model Talk is published. Since it’s October and those Halloween pop-up stories are everywhere, I wanted to talk about everyone’s most feared monstrosity: Systematic Polling Error. It’s a real thing. Original post

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Nate Silver Tweets @natesilver538bot.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

I've seen people ask why include 2025 and the answer is that well it's the most recent election, seems worth looking at. Incidentally, polls had a R bias in 2017 and were unbiased in 2021. Original post

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Nate Silver Tweets @natesilver538bot.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

The direction of polling error in recent years: * 2008: Unbiased * 2010: Unbiased * 2012: R bias * 2014: D bias * 2016: D bias * 2018: Unbiased * 2020: Even bigger D bias * 2022: Unbiased * 2024: D bias, less than 2016/2020 * 2025 (e.g. NJ/VA): Big R bias Original post

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Nate Silver Tweets @natesilver538bot.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

This map was more interesting than I was expecting. Note that deep red streak in Appalachian/southeastern Ohio. But it's not really present in similar counties in Pennsylvania. Original post

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Nate Silver Tweets @natesilver538bot.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

We're working to get our NFL content out earlier in the week. Not that it takes an advanced statistical model to tell you this, but every team in the NFC South is already projected to have a losing record again. Original post

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Nate Silver Tweets @natesilver538bot.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

This is maybe our most important chart of the election cycle. Original post

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Nate Silver Tweets @natesilver538bot.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

Generic ballot lead continues to grow for Democrats. Original post

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Nate Silver Tweets @natesilver538bot.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

It's time for my favorite biannual Silver Bulletin feature, or NBA Future of the Franchise rankings! Our panel ranked all 30 franchises by their expected number of championships over the next 10 seasons. 30. Clippers 29. Kings 28. Pelicans 27. Bucks 26. Nets 25. Wizards Original post

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Nate Silver Tweets @natesilver538bot.bsky.social · 27/09/2026

There's slippery terrain between "AI as an economic sector is a potential financial bubble" (plausible) and "AI as a technology is just hype" (YMMV but I think basically proven wrong at this point). People often assert the former claim to cover for bad takes about the latter. Original post

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Nate Silver Tweets @natesilver538bot.bsky.social · 26/09/2026

AI is a big W for 40-somethings. Old enough to have learned how to do things the right way, young enough to learn some new tricks. Original post

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Nate Silver Tweets @natesilver538bot.bsky.social · 26/09/2026

Hey folks, we're now hoping to update our ELWAY ratings 2x a week instead of 1x. So the new ratings are in, including the Thursday Night game and updated injury info. Here are our current injury-free (left) and injury-adjusted ratings. Original post

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Nate Silver Tweets @natesilver538bot.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

The Vermont governor race is a fun one. Only UNH has polled the race, and they now have the Democrat ahead. But Scott won by 52 points in 2024 and all the expert raters have it solid R! FLIPR has no idea. Original post

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Nate Silver Tweets @natesilver538bot.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

Interesting that Dems' generic ballot gains have come from undecideds rather than Republicans, whose numbers have held steady. Original post

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Nate Silver Tweets @natesilver538bot.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

Repost by @NateSilver538 RT by @NateSilver538: This is interesting, via @NateSilver538: In 2024, one takeaway was that the Red Wave was especially strong in blue cities. In 2026, the Blue Wave seems especially strong in red states. Click to see original repost

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Nate Silver Tweets @natesilver538bot.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

Polls over the past week or two (mostly GREAT for Democrats, but Collins still ahead in Maine?!?) tell an internally consistent but slightly weird story: D gains are overwhelmingly concentrated in red states. Original post

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Nate Silver Tweets @natesilver538bot.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

ELWAY update out for the week. You can get a sense here for how the model really likes good QBs. Buffalo looks like the best team in football. As mentioned last night, the model also really likes Brock Purdy and the 49ers. Patrick Mahomes' rating is ticking back up. Original post

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Nate Silver Tweets @natesilver538bot.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

I think most reasonably well-adjusted people would read this and feel pretty sympathetic toward Peltola rather than her annoying staffers. Original post

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Nate Silver Tweets @natesilver538bot.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

Don't really understand why Brock Purdy doesn't get more love. Our QB model rating him so highly feels like a hot take, but he's just incredibly efficient on a game-by-game basis. Original post

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Nate Silver Tweets @natesilver538bot.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

I feel like this has been one of our more underrated charts. If you throw out voters who *weakly* approve or disapprove of Trump's performance and only look at *strong* approval/disapproval, his net approval rating is -29, even worse than his overall -22. Original post

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Nate Silver Tweets @natesilver538bot.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

A money advantage is one of the few things that Republicans have going for them this cycle. But is it really as big as it's cracked up to be? Ds have a big advantage in individual contributions, especially in the Senate. Rs have a big edge in outside money and party money. Original post

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Nate Silver Tweets @natesilver538bot.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

Trump approval now at -22.4, his low point for the term and now lower than at any point in his first term, even after Jan. 6. By comparison, he was at a "mere" -11.6 at this point in 2018. Original post

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Nate Silver Tweets @natesilver538bot.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

Pangram is a cool technology but I don't really like how it's being deployed in the Discourse and any model's performance on a training set is going to differ from it's reliability in a real-world setting where it's suddenly hard to externally validate. Original post

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Nate Silver Tweets @natesilver538bot.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

Here's a map showing where regular gas prices have increased the most. Original post

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Nate Silver Tweets @natesilver538bot.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

Polls for Republicans are just getting worse by the day in a way that isn't actually all that common in midterms. It's gotta be mostly the gas prices, although maybe AI anxieties are also reverberating negatively for the GOP. Model update out soon. Original post

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Nate Silver Tweets @natesilver538bot.bsky.social · 21/09/2026

Move the Chargers back to San Diego. Or to Mexico City or something. They're kind of a liminal franchise at this point, the equivalent of an auxiliary airport terminal. Original post

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Nate Silver Tweets @natesilver538bot.bsky.social · 20/09/2026

So yeah, the expert ratings don't make any sense. They're assuming roughly a D +2 or D +3 national environment. That's inconsistent with pretty much all the current and historical evidence. While I'd never rule out a systematic polling error, that shouldn't be your baseline. Original post

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Nate Silver Tweets @natesilver538bot.bsky.social · 19/09/2026

Another very good forecast update for Democrats today. Now up 7.8 on the generic ballot or 8.6 on the likely-voter version. That is deeply into wave territory. Original post

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Nate Silver Tweets @natesilver538bot.bsky.social · 19/09/2026

One political problem for AI labs is that they can't articulate an optimistic medium-term future that sounds broadly good for humanity without also sounding incredibly weird, having huge wealth/power disparities, or both. Original post

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