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Dr Mircea Zloteanu 🌺🌞🍃

@mzloteanu.bsky.social
3.3K followers 770 following 1.8K posts

Lecturer Psych & Crim @kingscollegelondon.bsky.social | Deception Detection; Emotions; JDM | Open Science; R; Bayes | UKRN ReproTea & StatsTea | #statstab | 🇷🇴 🇬🇧🌍 Stats blog: mzloteanu.substack.com

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Dr Mircea Zloteanu 🌺🌞🍃 @mzloteanu.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
#statstab #630 A Tutorial on Distribution-Free Uncertainty Quantification Using Conformal Prediction Thoughts: Conformal predictions are getting more popular. #conformalprediction #frequentist #uncertainty #assumptions #distributions #tutorial doi.org/10.1177/2515...
doi.org
A Tutorial on Distribution-Free Uncertainty Quantification Using Conformal Prediction - Tim Kaiser, Philipp Herzog, 2025
Statistical prediction models are ubiquitous in psychological research and practice. Increasingly, machine-learning models are used. Quantifying the uncertainty...
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Dr Mircea Zloteanu 🌺🌞🍃 @mzloteanu.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
#statstab #629 Extreme-Value Signal Detection Theory For Recognition Memory: The Parametric Road Not Taken Thoughts: Let's get ready to Gumbel! #sdt #theory #modelling #gumbel #methods #statistics #tutorial #memory #discrimination osf.io/preprints/ps...
osf.io
Extreme-Value Signal Detection Theory for Recognition Memory: The Parametric Road Not Taken
Signal Detection Theory has long served as a cornerstone of psychological research, particularly in recognition memory. Yet its conventional application hinges almost exclusively on the Gaussian assum...
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Dr Mircea Zloteanu 🌺🌞🍃 @mzloteanu.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
Finally! No more saving a million versions to get things just right 😅
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Dr Mircea Zloteanu 🌺🌞🍃 @mzloteanu.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
#statstab #628 Meta-analysis models relaxing the random-effects normality assumption: methodological systematic review and simulation study Thoughts: Looks interesting, the little I get. #metaanalysis #methods #statistics #assumptions #randomeffects link.springer.com/article/10.1...
link.springer.com
Meta-analysis models relaxing the random-effects normality assumption: methodological systematic review and simulation study - BMC Medical Research Methodology
Background Random-effects meta-analysis is widely used for synthesizing the studies of a systematic review assuming a normal distribution for the study-specific effects. However, this assumption might...
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Dr Mircea Zloteanu 🌺🌞🍃 @mzloteanu.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
#statstab #627 Elegant theories and the problems of social psychology Thoughts: Why do we expect theories in psych to be "elegant"? #theory #research #debate #perspective #psychology #socialpsychology #metapsychology #parsimony #evidence #critique www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
tandfonline.com
Elegant theories and the problems of social psychology
This perspective article provides a commentary on the current state of theories used in social psychology, with a particular emphasis on the importance of distinguishing between theoretical models ...
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Dr Mircea Zloteanu 🌺🌞🍃 @mzloteanu.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
#statstab #626 Goal-Driven Flexible Bayesian Design Thoughts: Bayes allows you to design informative studies and anticipate issues. #bayesian #bayes #design #simulation #rct #tutorial #inference #mcid #equivalence #efficacy #estimation #noninferiority hbiostat.org/bayes/design
hbiostat.org
Bayesian Design
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Dr Mircea Zloteanu 🌺🌞🍃 @mzloteanu.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
#statstab #625 {lavinteract}: Post-Estimation Utilities for 'lavaan' Fitted Models Thoughts: "Companion toolbox for structural equation models fitted with 'lavaan'" #lavaan #sem #modelselection #modelfit #r2 #FDR #VIF #latent #rstats #r cran.r-project.org/web/packages...
cran.r-project.org
Help for package lavinteract
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Dr Mircea Zloteanu 🌺🌞🍃 @mzloteanu.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
#statstab #624 Severe Testing: Error Statistics versus Bayes Factor Tests Thoughts: This seems to be the framework most NHST researchers are adopting. #nhst #hypothesis #hypothesistesting #severetestting #equivalence #sesoi #methods #frequentist doi.org/10.1086/736950
doi.org
Severe Testing: Error Statistics versus Bayes Factor Tests | The British Journal for the Philosophy of Science: Vol 0, No ja
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Dr Mircea Zloteanu 🌺🌞🍃 @mzloteanu.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
#statstab #623 Six Lemmas Concerning Heterogeneity and Nonlinearity in Causal Inference Thoughts: A very clear treaty of Causal inference problems. #causalinference #ATE #MachineLearning #inference #bias #heterogeneity #lemma #nonlinear #observational math.la.asu.edu/~prhahn/six-...
math.la.asu.edu
six-lemmas-narrative
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Dr Mircea Zloteanu 🌺🌞🍃 @mzloteanu.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
#statstab #622 Some notes on probability judgement Thoughts: The position of an answer can be more informative than it's correctness. #probability #psychology #bias #surveys #calibration #error blog.djnavarro.net/posts/2025-0...
blog.djnavarro.net
Some notes on probability judgement – Notes from a data witch
For the love of fuck, literally nobody thinks that 20% of the population is transgender. Please stop sharing that ridiculous YouGov statistic
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Reposted by Dr Mircea Zloteanu 🌺🌞🍃
ReproducibiliTea @reproducibilitea.org · 22/09/2026
🎉 ReproducibiliTea 2026 Conference | 25 September 2026 “A decade on & decades ahead” Lunch Break & Parallel Journal Clubs | 14:10–16:10 CEST Grab a bite and a warm cup of tea, then join us for interactive discussions! ⇆ Both journal clubs run at the same time in separate rooms.
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Dr Mircea Zloteanu 🌺🌞🍃 @mzloteanu.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
#statstab #621 A General Method For Estimating Reliability Using Bayesian Measurement Uncertainty Thoughts: "estimating reliability [...] for complex cognitive and behavioural assessments without test-retest data" wow! #reliability #bayesian #testretest doi.org/10.31234/osf...
doi.org
OSF
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Dr Mircea Zloteanu 🌺🌞🍃 @mzloteanu.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
#statstab #620 Why is the Tukey's IQR not used in the R program? Thoughts: R has many ways to compute IQR and the default isn't what you'd probably get by hand. #iqr #rstats #forum #discussion #crossvalidated #tukey #robust #quantile #descriptives stats.stackexchange.com/questions/60...
stats.stackexchange.com
Why is the Tukey's IQR not used in the R program?
I was writing an R Markdown for calculating measures of spread and was surprised to find that the IQR function does not use the IQR calculation I am used to using, which is: $$ \text{IQR} = \text{Q...
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Dr Mircea Zloteanu 🌺🌞🍃 @mzloteanu.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
#statstab #619 Generalized Linear Models: Linear regression with counts, ratios, binary outcomes and more Thoughts: Good teaching/learning resource #glm #education #guide #resources #rstats #r #linearmodel #regression #nonlinear #poisson #count #binomial fransrodenburg.github.io/Applied-Stat...
fransrodenburg.github.io
2  Generalized Linear Models – Applied Statistics
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Dr Mircea Zloteanu 🌺🌞🍃 @mzloteanu.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
#statstab #618 True and false interindividual differences in the physiological response to an intervention Thoughts: Not all individual participant/data plots show what you think. #dataviz #plots #variance #variability #randomization #heterogeneity physoc.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/ftr/10.1...
physoc.onlinelibrary.wiley.com
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Dr Mircea Zloteanu 🌺🌞🍃 @mzloteanu.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
#statstab #617 Why Adjusted Regression Coefficients Are Less Descriptive Than They Look Thoughts: Great overview of the "controlling for" issue in multiple regression #regression #inference #covariates #multivariable #guide #adjustment #causalinference rpsychologist.com/descriptive-...
rpsychologist.com
Why Adjusted Regression Coefficients Are Less Descriptive Than They Look | R Psychologist
An interactive article about how regression adjustment works and the pitfalls of conditional associations in descriptive studies.
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Reposted by Dr Mircea Zloteanu 🌺🌞🍃
Julia M. Rohrer @dingdingpeng.the100.ci · 14/09/2026
Okay before I do write my screed about cluster analysis, please send me your favorite *positive* examples that illustrate the utility of the method!
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Dr Mircea Zloteanu 🌺🌞🍃 @mzloteanu.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
#statstab #616 The brms Book: Applied Bayesian Regression Modelling Using R and Stan (Early Draft) Thoughts: {brms} is a main package fir bayesian stats. A must to know. #brms #bayes #bayesian #modelling #book #tutorial #regression #stan #rstats #r paulbuerkner.com/software/brm...
paulbuerkner.com
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Dr Mircea Zloteanu 🌺🌞🍃 @mzloteanu.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
#statstab #615 Evaluating Effect Size in Psychological Research: Sense and Nonsense Thoughts: It's a bit baffling that ppl just use some random value for their research. #effectsize #cohend #sesoi #design #theory journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...
journals.sagepub.com
Sage Journals: Discover world-class research
Subscription and open access journals from Sage, the world's leading independent academic publisher.
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Dr Mircea Zloteanu 🌺🌞🍃 @mzloteanu.bsky.social · 10/09/2026
#statstab #614 Conducting Theory-Based Reproducible Simulation Studies {theorytools} Thoughts: This looks like the work flow of the future (distant, unfortunately). #research #rstats #theory #workflow #tutorial #guide #worcs #FAIRtheory cjvanlissa.github.io/theorytools/...
cjvanlissa.github.io
Conducting Theory-Based Reproducible Simulation Studies
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Dr Mircea Zloteanu 🌺🌞🍃 @mzloteanu.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
#statstab #613 Additional caution regarding rules of thumb for variance inflation factors: extending O’Brien to the context of specification error Thoughts: I'm sure some will have strong opinions on VIF. #VIF #regression #ruleofthumb #multicolinearity link.springer.com/article/10.1...
link.springer.com
Additional caution regarding rules of thumb for variance inflation factors: extending O’Brien to the context of specification error - Quality & Quantity
Despite the popularity of Variance Inflation Factor (VIF) scores as multicollinearity diagnostics, methodological work has voiced skepticism. In a paper that has become the most highly cited reference...
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Reposted by Dr Mircea Zloteanu 🌺🌞🍃
Eiko Fried @eikofried.bsky.social · 08/09/2026
EU friends: pls be aware that you cannot share certain types of data on Zenodo because Zenodo does actually not comply with GDPR. @lakens.bsky.social 's blog has a great summary. It's a pretty serious reason to avoid Zenodo for researchers who work with data, if I understand the issue correctly.
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Dr Mircea Zloteanu 🌺🌞🍃 @mzloteanu.bsky.social · 08/09/2026
#statstab #612 Causal discovery and the problem of psychological interventions Thoughts: I recall this paper causing a bit of fuss (get it? Causing!). #causalinference #psychology #inference #effects #interventions #opinion #research www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
sciencedirect.com
Causal discovery and the problem of psychological interventions
Finding causes is a central goal in psychological research. In this paper, I argue based on the interventionist approach to causal discovery that the …
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Dr Mircea Zloteanu 🌺🌞🍃 @mzloteanu.bsky.social · 07/09/2026
#statstab #611 How to practise Bayesian statistics outside the Bayesian church: What philosophy for Bayesian statistical modelling? Thoughts: A comment on the last statstab on the philosophy of Bayesian. #philosophy #bayes #inference #bayesian bpspsychub.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10....
bpspsychub.onlinelibrary.wiley.com
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Dr Mircea Zloteanu 🌺🌞🍃 @mzloteanu.bsky.social · 04/09/2026
#statstab #610 Philosophy and the practice of Bayesian statistics Thoughts: Bayesian as a hypothetico-deductive approach to science. #bayesian #philosophy #bayes #inference #probability #modelselection #modelchecking #assumptions sites.stat.columbia.edu/gelman/resea...
sites.stat.columbia.edu
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Dr Mircea Zloteanu 🌺🌞🍃 @mzloteanu.bsky.social · 03/09/2026
#statstab #609 When power analyses based on pilot data are biased: Inaccurate effect size estimators and follow-up bias Thoughts: Don't judge effects by impressive pilot data. #poweranalysis #bias #samplesize #error #eta2 #omega #epsilon #effectsize www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
sciencedirect.com
When power analyses based on pilot data are biased: Inaccurate effect size estimators and follow-up bias
When designing a study, the planned sample size is often based on power analyses. One way to choose an effect size for power analyses is by relying on…
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Dr Mircea Zloteanu 🌺🌞🍃 @mzloteanu.bsky.social · 02/09/2026
#statstab #608 Dealing with continuous variables and modelling non-linear associations in healthcare data: practical guide Thoughts: Covers categorisation (e.g. Median split), splines, nonlinear models, etc #guide #nonlinear #continuous #data #analysis www.bmj.com/content/390/...
bmj.com
Dealing with continuous variables and modelling non-linear associations in healthcare data: practical guide
Proper handling of continuous variables is crucial in healthcare research, for example, within regression modelling for descriptive, explanatory, or predictive purposes. However, inadequate methods ar...
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Dr Mircea Zloteanu 🌺🌞🍃 @mzloteanu.bsky.social · 01/09/2026
#statstab #607 Thinking Clearly About Age, Period, and Cohort Effects Thoughts: How difficult could it be to model change over time? Answer: Difficult. #cohort #time #longitudinal #observational #causalinference #inference #age #estimand #methods journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...
journals.sagepub.com
Sage Journals: Discover world-class research
Subscription and open access journals from Sage, the world's leading independent academic publisher.
052
Dr Mircea Zloteanu 🌺🌞🍃 @mzloteanu.bsky.social · 31/08/2026
#statstab #606 How to Run Surveys: A Guide to Creating Your Own Identifying Variation and Revealing the Invisible Thoughts: A starting resource for survey research. #surveys #research #methods #tutorial #sampling #probability #mobile www.annualreviews.org/content/jour...
annualreviews.org
How to Run Surveys: A Guide to Creating Your Own Identifying Variation and Revealing the Invisible
Surveys are an essential approach for eliciting otherwise invisible factors such as perceptions, knowledge and beliefs, attitudes, and reasoning. These factors are critical determinants of social, eco...
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Reposted by Dr Mircea Zloteanu 🌺🌞🍃
Matt Makel @mattmakel.bsky.social · 31/08/2026
a new paper by Tim Rakow of King’s College London reveals that prior work that relied on database searches to report replication rates underestimated the number of replications that have been conducted. journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1... 4/
journals.sagepub.com
Sage Journals: Discover world-class research
Subscription and open access journals from Sage, the world's leading independent academic publisher.
12911
Dr Mircea Zloteanu 🌺🌞🍃 @mzloteanu.bsky.social · 28/08/2026
#statstab #605 Distributed lags (and hierarchical distributed lags) using {mgcv} and {mvgam} Thoughts: Thorough tutorial, maybe I'll use these someday (somehow). #mcgv #lags #poisson #rstats #tutorial #gam #nonlinear ecogambler.netlify.app/blog/distrib...
ecogambler.netlify.app
Distributed lags (and hierarchical distributed lags) using mgcv and mvgam | GAMbler
Use mgcv's convenient list data format for setting up nonlinear functions that change smoothly over increasing temporal lags
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Dr Mircea Zloteanu 🌺🌞🍃 @mzloteanu.bsky.social · 27/08/2026
#statstab #604 Prediction can be safely used as a proxy for explanation in causally consistent Bayesian generalized linear models Thoughts: Interesting take on causal inference & model misspecification. #brms #causalinference #bayesian #glmm #prediction www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
tandfonline.com
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Dr Mircea Zloteanu 🌺🌞🍃 @mzloteanu.bsky.social · 26/08/2026
#statstab #603 A More Complete Post on Decision Theory and EVSI in A/B Testing Thoughts: Interesting to consider, mostly for replications imo. #samplesize #poweranalysis #bayesian #evsi #loss #utility #ABtesting #decisiontheory dpananos.github.io/posts/2026-0...
dpananos.github.io
A More Complete Post on Decision Theory and EVSI in A/B Testing – Demetri Pananos Ph.D
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Dr Mircea Zloteanu 🌺🌞🍃 @mzloteanu.bsky.social · 25/08/2026
#statstab #602 Factors associated with: problems of using exploratory multivariable regression to identify causal risk factors Thoughts: You mean I can't just add covariates and hope for the best!? #primer #causalinference #table2 #methods #regression bmjmedicine.bmj.com/content/4/1/...
bmjmedicine.bmj.com
Factors associated with: problems of using exploratory multivariable regression to identify causal risk factors
Many medical and epidemiological studies use multivariable regression to test whether several independent variables (exposures) are causal determinants of a health outcome. Where mutually adjusted reg...
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Dr Mircea Zloteanu 🌺🌞🍃 @mzloteanu.bsky.social · 24/08/2026
#statstab #601 Magnitude-based Inference is not Bayesian and is not a valid method of inference Thoughts: Don't use random Excel sheets you find on the internet! 😅 #MBI #type1error #inference #statistics #methods #sportsscience #errorrate onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...
onlinelibrary.wiley.com
Magnitude‐based Inference is not Bayesian and is not a valid method of inference
Click on the article title to read more.
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Dr Mircea Zloteanu 🌺🌞🍃 @mzloteanu.bsky.social · 21/08/2026
#statstab #600 The Estimand Framework and Causal Inference: Complementary Not Competing Paradigms Thoughts: Not everyone likes the Estimand framework, but it's useful to understand. #observational #estimand #causalinference #research #design #guide onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10....
onlinelibrary.wiley.com
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Dr Mircea Zloteanu 🌺🌞🍃 @mzloteanu.bsky.social · 20/08/2026
#statstab #599 Non-normal hierarchical regression & classification Thoughts: Comprehensive #r tutorial for binary and count analysis with #brms #logisticregression #count #poisson #negativebinomial #rstats #guide #tutorial #bayes #bayesian bayesf22-notebook.classes.andrewheiss.com/bayes-rules/...
bayesf22-notebook.classes.andrewheiss.com
bayesf22 Notebook - 18: Non-normal hierarchical regression & classification
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Dr Mircea Zloteanu 🌺🌞🍃 @mzloteanu.bsky.social · 19/08/2026
"a good day to you, good sir" "and you, good sir"
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Dr Mircea Zloteanu 🌺🌞🍃 @mzloteanu.bsky.social · 19/08/2026
#statstab #598 Why the tails come apart Thoughts: Why are very extreme people not the best at the thing they are extreme on? (interesting comments also) #berksonparadox #correlation #outliers #ecologicalfallacy #collider www.lesswrong.com/posts/dC7mP5...
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Dr Mircea Zloteanu 🌺🌞🍃 @mzloteanu.bsky.social · 18/08/2026
#statstab #597 Distribution of p-values when comparing two groups: an interactive visualization Thoughts: Teaching about p-values is challenging, so a visual can go a long way. #education #dataviz #plots #pvalues #nhst #visualization rpsychologist.com/d3/pdist/
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Dr Mircea Zloteanu 🌺🌞🍃 @mzloteanu.bsky.social · 17/08/2026
#statstab #596 Generalized Additive Latent and Mixed Models {galamm} Thoughts: Complex ideas require complex (but appropriate) modelling strategies. #glmm #gam #r #rstats #lavaan #stan #latent #bayesian #bayes docs.ropensci.org/galamm/
docs.ropensci.org
Generalized Additive Latent and Mixed Models
Estimates generalized additive latent and mixed models using maximum marginal likelihood, as defined in Sorensen et al. (2023) <doi:10.1007/s11336-023-09910-z>, which is an extension of Rabe-Hesketh a...
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Dr Mircea Zloteanu 🌺🌞🍃 @mzloteanu.bsky.social · 14/08/2026
#statstab #595 Required Sample Size to Detect the Mediated Effect Thoughts: Do with this information what you will. #mediation #samplesize #poweranalysis #power #error #type2 #causalinference journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10....
journals.sagepub.com
Sage Journals: Discover world-class research
Subscription and open access journals from Sage, the world's leading independent academic publisher.
020
Reposted by Dr Mircea Zloteanu 🌺🌞🍃
Richard McElreath 🐈‍⬛ @rmcelreath.bsky.social · 13/08/2026
These ratio outcome variables are a plague in the sciences. If your analysis treats 1/2 and 10/20 as the same evidence, then you have discarded uncertainty in the outcome. Model what you measure, not what you construct. Use the denominator as an exposure instead.
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Dr Mircea Zloteanu 🌺🌞🍃 @mzloteanu.bsky.social · 13/08/2026
#statstab #594 Measurement Theory: Why it is Possible to Measure Psychological Phenomena Thoughts: I need to engage with this properly, but seems cool. #psychometrics #mesurement #theory #validity #reliability #history elliedegb.quarto.pub/psychometric...
elliedegb.quarto.pub
4  Measurement Theory: Why it is Possible to Measure Psychological Phenomena – Advances in Psychometric Theory and Measurement for Psychological Sciences
This is an educational resource, with content at the cutting edge of scientific knowledge. It aims to improve future research, by improving researchers knowledge in the statistical inferences made, pl...
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Dr Mircea Zloteanu 🌺🌞🍃 @mzloteanu.bsky.social · 12/08/2026
#statstab #593 Lord’s Paradox: The Power of Causal Thinking Thoughts: This is Judea Pearl's take on the paradox. Will this ever be solved in a way that all are happy? #confounding #paradox #lordsparadox #causalinference #ancova #DAG causality.cs.ucla.edu/blog/index.p...
causality.cs.ucla.edu
Causal Analysis in Theory and Practice » Lord’s Paradox: The Power of Causal Thinking
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Dr Mircea Zloteanu 🌺🌞🍃 @mzloteanu.bsky.social · 11/08/2026
#statstab #592 ANOVA: Mixed-Effects (F-Test) {pwrss} Thoughts: A slightly more comprehensive view of interaction testing in ANOVA. #poweranalysis #samplesize #rstats #r #package #guide #effectsize #interaction cran.r-project.org/web/packages...
cran.r-project.org
Practical Power Analysis in R
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Dr Mircea Zloteanu 🌺🌞🍃 @mzloteanu.bsky.social · 10/08/2026
#statstab #591 What is Incidence Rate Ratio? Thoughts: A simple overview, but can be a starting point for IRRs in count models. #irr #regression #stats #poisson #negativebinomial #effectsize www.statology.org/incidence-ra...
statology.org
What is Incidence Rate Ratio? (Definition & Example)
This tutorial provides an explanation of incidence rate ratio, including a formal definition and an example.
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Dr Mircea Zloteanu 🌺🌞🍃 @mzloteanu.bsky.social · 07/08/2026
#statstab #590 Questions about statistical claims in paper from recent Nobel prize winners; some general challenges in trying understand nonlinear patterns using quadratic regression Thoughts: A pattern could just be properties of the model #quadratic statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/10/15/q...
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu
Questions about statistical claims in paper from recent Nobel prize winners; some general challenges in trying understand nonlinear patterns using quadratic regression | Statistical Modeling, Causal ...
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Dr Mircea Zloteanu 🌺🌞🍃 @mzloteanu.bsky.social · 06/08/2026
#statstab #589 The Permutation Test: A Visual Explanation of Statistical Testing Thoughts: If you stay in a frequentist framework, this should be your default. #permutation #randomization #nhst #ttest #pvalue #tutorial #guide www.jwilber.me/permutationt...
jwilber.me
Permutation Test: Visual Explanation
Permutation Test: Visual Explanation
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Dr Mircea Zloteanu 🌺🌞🍃 @mzloteanu.bsky.social · 05/08/2026
#statstab #588 Test if two coefficients in a linear model are both significant Thoughts: The bigger p-value of the two would do it. #regression #equivalence #nhst #pvalues #discussion stats.stackexchange.com/questions/66...
stats.stackexchange.com
Test if two coefficients in a linear model are both significant
Is there a single test one can perform that would be significant if two coefficients in a linear model are both different from 0, but would not be significant if only one of them differs from 0? Ye...
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