iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

In practice, somebody doing that unrepentantly would have judicial barriers way before getting certificate from the state of their election. They at least couldn’t be in the rollcall. I doubt anybody has ever been seated on 1/3 who was not in the rollcall to begin with.

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Matt Waters @mwwaters.bsky.social · 17h

Is the waiver discretionary on the part of the government?

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Matt Waters @mwwaters.bsky.social · 11/10/2026

I’m not a lawyer, but I see huge two-party consent issues. It sounds like robocalls as well, given an artificially generated voice. Maybe the laws don’t apply since a customer is not selling a service. Not saying that is fair. But this all seems like a terrible idea.

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Matt Waters @mwwaters.bsky.social · 11/10/2026

If they don’t pre-register their hypothesis, there will be some “vaccine injury” among 20+ maladies that have <5% p-value.

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Matt Waters @mwwaters.bsky.social · 10/10/2026

Sorry for the late response. Yeah, I agree. I just thought account recovery is an interesting issue. There‘s a question about how much to relax anti-phishing constraints and what strategies (such as delay) to use.

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Matt Waters @mwwaters.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

Either passkey or simple email magic link is good for accounts which 1. Are relatively low value and 2. Can be lost totally if both the email account and passkey are lost. For the email account itself, it becomes very difficult to handle the case of losing all passkeys.

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Matt Waters @mwwaters.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

Campaign ads saturate and get tuned out by anyone convincable. OTOH, going routes such as Twitter, podcasts, new organizations, etc. can have somewhat more effectiveness.

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Matt Waters @mwwaters.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

This was the reasoning for the checks’ appropriations. Like with the TV ads, language of a lot of appropriations will get stretched considerably (To put it lightly). www.cnbc.com/amp/2026/09/...

The $500 refunds are being paid from a "surplus" of "user fees" collected by the Biden administration, according to the Trump administration official. The White House said these excessive charges had been passed on to consumers during the Biden era through higher health insurance premiums.

The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services collects user fees from health insurers who participate in the ACA marketplace. Under Obamacare, healthcare exchanges can collect user fees from insurance companies to help fund ACA marketplace operations.

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Matt Waters @mwwaters.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

Would Fetterman vote for the resolutions appointing the committee makeup at start of session (technical way of asking whether he would switch parties)?

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Matt Waters @mwwaters.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

I’ve heard the Big 4 and other accounting costs have tried to *increase* their prices because of AI. Clients said “lol, no.” But also, what exactly are we trying to accomplish here if it increases costs?

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Matt Waters @mwwaters.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

It’s not itself a claimed power. Article III gives judicial power to courts already. If a statute or the constitution is in conflict, the judge has to pick one to follow for those using the courts.

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Matt Waters @mwwaters.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

Thanks. I do find confusion about what “Exceptions” mean without allowing for jurisdiction-stripping for Appellate Jurisdiction? I can more easily see why Marbury was wrong on limited SC’s original jurisdiction to what constitution grants, in light of judicial power paragraphs.

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Matt Waters @mwwaters.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

For the real snake eating tail, the new “inferior” court of appeal could have appellate jurisdiction over SC’s original jurisdiction. I mean probably not in practice.

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Matt Waters @mwwaters.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

Yeah, reading these three paragraphs I can’t make sense of it. Do the first two paragraphs say that Congress has to collectively have *some* court with power of every clause in Section 2 Paragraph 1?

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Matt Waters @mwwaters.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

Reading Section 3, it’s clear that one thing was true. Philadelphia was hit in the summer and they were drunk as all hell.

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Matt Waters @mwwaters.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

When I really dove deep on it: 1. Robocalling (an automated dialer) requires explicit consent at some point. 2. P2P, where somebody clicks on tons of names individually, is considered “manual“ and doesn’t require consent. 3. Political campaigns are exempt from national do-not-call.

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Matt Waters @mwwaters.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

I guess I meant Castle Rock to be more emblematic. The government *not* doing a function is, in my understanding, always extremely hard to sue against. I couldn’t find a PDF of the claim, but it seemed like they also sued for damages from a sale falling through due to SPD not acting.

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Matt Waters @mwwaters.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

Won’t that be an uphill battle with the Castle Rock decision? There is of course a whole lot of “sorry you’re SOL” jurisprudence. The case where police did significant damage to an innocent third party’s house to catch a fugitive was unsuccessful In recovering the damages.

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Matt Waters @mwwaters.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

I couldn’t find this page and I am confused about what circumstances would get somebody to try to do such a thing.

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Matt Waters @mwwaters.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

I never knew anybody in person who used Vine. Now I am kind of the odd one out for not using Tik Tok or Instagram reels.

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Matt Waters @mwwaters.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

Saying “deep though” instead of “deep thought” certainly doesn make me look good.

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Matt Waters @mwwaters.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

I tend more now in the “Glonzo is real“ camp on the vibecession, based on various economic indicators (sudden inflation for boomers, housing costs for younger). *But* short-form video started in earnest around 2019 and I think it is the opposite of deep though.

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Matt Waters @mwwaters.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

Nah, I’ve come around to something being rotten. Biggest non-vibes thing is housing. The best you can say, looking at housing insecurity, maybe Taxi Driver NYC was worse. But for one growing up in 90s, first unemployment and now housing insecurity doesn’t feel great.

Graph showing increase in homelessness from 600k to 800k in 2024.

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Matt Waters @mwwaters.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

Seeing this about some court case, out of context, is really a crazy metaphor/example.

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Matt Waters @mwwaters.bsky.social · 27/09/2026

The insurance companies are supposed to try to make contact and to say if any of the names have made a claim. The ins cos may actually do that instead of losing healthy premium-paying people from their rolls.

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Matt Waters @mwwaters.bsky.social · 27/09/2026

Currently it is about 4% of enrollees. The gov said they had three markers (enrolled by broker, 100% subsidy, no SSN). But it also says here they used AI. www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026...

theguardian.com

In latest blow to Obamacare, Trump is threatening the entire US health system

The Trump administration is removing 760,000 people enrolled in the Affordable Care Act marketplace

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Matt Waters @mwwaters.bsky.social · 27/09/2026

Yeah, it’s unclear special enrollment period would apply. The cancellation could be considered “rescission” in that the gov says the insured didn’t sign the original insurance contract. Special enrollment is not allowed for rescission (which can still happen for short-term plans).

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Matt Waters @mwwaters.bsky.social · 27/09/2026

The scheme also should be found relatively easily through some of them earning more than 138% and running into tax issues through not including a 1098 they didn’t know about.

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Matt Waters @mwwaters.bsky.social · 27/09/2026

Cancelling plans ex ante does absolutely nothing to help such people. Before such a speculative cancellation, there was insurance they didn’t know about. After the cancellation, that insurance they didn’t know about has been cancelled.

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Matt Waters @mwwaters.bsky.social · 27/09/2026

In every case regardless, it’s not disputed that some insured is getting insurance. If the insured knows about the plan and their income is actually 100-138% of FPL, then the gov isn’t really losing money. They could have been overpromised, but there’s real coverage.

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Matt Waters @mwwaters.bsky.social · 27/09/2026

Cancelling plans ex ante is about the worst way to go about it though. It’s not tough to see why this strategy is not being done with Medicare Advantage plans even though MA plans have had similar fraud (with greater fraud from ins cos themselves).

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Matt Waters @mwwaters.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

I guess all this stuff is pretty difficult to disentangle. I think the safest point is within-labor inequality became extreme. Also post-tax measures increased even more due to lower rates. And at this point, there are extreme current “profits“ in AI boom which may or may not stick.

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Matt Waters @mwwaters.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

Depreciation increased due to capital going from, say, factories to software. The 4 percentage points of higher depreciation accounts for decline in labor share of 63% in 60s to 59% in 2010s. It went further down recently from 59% to 57%, which is bad. fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LABSH...

fred.stlouisfed.org

Share of Labour Compensation in GDP at Current National Prices for United States

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Matt Waters @mwwaters.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

The headline measurement of labor share of GDP is (or was, at least 10 years ago) explained by higher depreciation and by higher imputed rents from real estate. The depreciation element is repayment of fixed costs, not really income that goes to business owners. fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=SYxY

fred.stlouisfed.org

Consumption of Fixed Capital/Gross Domestic Product

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Matt Waters @mwwaters.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

It is besides the point obviously, but this notice is interesting. Unsure what is going on since I don’t believe you wrote in Swedish and then Bluesky transparently translated.

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Matt Waters @mwwaters.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

I am curious why Trump hasn’t truly pushed the cool zone button with utter, ongoing contempt/nullification. I’m glad it is the case, but unsure as to why (so far).

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Matt Waters @mwwaters.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

2009 showing the “benefit” of low inflation obviously does show the sticky wage issue. The workers remaining had higher wages. I don’t know if Europe has nominal wage cuts though. I only remember them using more work hour cuts as opposed to either outright wage cuts or layoffs.

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Matt Waters @mwwaters.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

For Saudi embargo and then Iran embargo, a very strong COLA could have existed. But wages of course didn’t work that way even in the 70s and besides companies may have actually not had their money. I don’t know, it seems clear how supply cost inflation would lead to lower real wages.

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Matt Waters @mwwaters.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

It seems like Sweden looks similar to the US. Not that wages are all set at market rates without rents extracted by employers. But, uh, if they were, supply shocks like two 70s oil crises would lead to lower real wages. Productivity increase would also show up in lower inflation w/ higher real wage

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Matt Waters @mwwaters.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

Very few if any places have no paper ballots today.

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Matt Waters @mwwaters.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

For the second point, obviously not all Gen X/Boomers, etc. etc. But I think there was a 20 year near-flat price cycle for many goods and then 2021 happened. CPI for cars was flat 2000-20 and then shot up.

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Matt Waters @mwwaters.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

I think the vibecession is a mix of: 1. All the bad things mentioned here in the Bluesky/Reddit set. 2. For white Gen X/Boomers, in my experience it’s hard to understate how much they focus on nominal prices.

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Matt Waters @mwwaters.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

Ok, it appears there is 100-138%. Part of it is the general hollowing out of the DOJ. But otherwise, I feel like the scam should be quite easy to snuff out once the actual person files taxes. Doing it ex ante just punches down without punishing actual evildoers (which is the point obviously).

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Matt Waters @mwwaters.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

Is there an income band that gets 100% subsidy? I have trouble tracking how fake policies wouldn’t be cancelled for nonpayment otherwise.

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Matt Waters @mwwaters.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

The text applies to Israel actions in Gaza since Palestine ratified the Rome statute. It does not apply in the sense that UN cannot arrest the leaders, but that has been true of literally every arrestee of ICC while they committed their crimes (since they were in power).

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Matt Waters @mwwaters.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

Highly recommend the book The Land Trap, which talked about Japan and Taiwan a lot. One thing I learned was that General MacArthur was somehow a main proponent of land reform.

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Matt Waters @mwwaters.bsky.social · 14/09/2026

I recall Hormuz being 10%. So 14% of supply. It’s been blunted so far by reserve releases, which is obviously not sustainable.

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Matt Waters @mwwaters.bsky.social · 05/09/2026

I was going to joke that the two times Trump and Musk performed on a contract was a Doral painter (with FL fee multiplier) or Twitter (Watchell paid indirectly by Musk). But honestly I have trouble thinking of any time either simply performed on a contract.

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Reposted by Matt Waters

kate bush’s husband @airbagged.bsky.social · 26/08/2026

3 minutes of Tim Curry holding back laughter while filming scenes for Red Alert 3

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