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Magic Data Science

@mtgds.bsky.social
3.1K followers 94 following 2.5K posts

Doing math with Magic; doing Magic with math. (Chromatic Lantern; Julie Dillon)

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Magic Data Science @mtgds.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
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Magic Data Science @mtgds.bsky.social · 16/07/2026
Breaking my long silence to report that +2 Mace now appears on Gatherer.
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Magic Data Science @mtgds.bsky.social · 30/04/2026
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Magic Data Science @mtgds.bsky.social · 30/04/2026
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Magic Data Science @mtgds.bsky.social · 30/04/2026
This is so cool. I think maybe all (?) of the art is from sketches/drafts of illustrations that have appeared on Magic cards. Seems fun, easy to learn, charming. Way to stick with it, @maro254.bsky.social
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Magic Data Science @mtgds.bsky.social · 24/02/2026
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Magic Data Science @mtgds.bsky.social · 22/02/2026
In second place, with 457.91 points, was Inflamed (who came in 3rd for TLA!), closely followed by @veserius.bsky.social at 457.87 -- and then several others close behind! Here is how the rest of the competitors finished out:
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Magic Data Science @mtgds.bsky.social · 22/02/2026
📯I am pleased to announce the winner of the Lorwyn Eclipsed #P0P1 Challenge: 🎇 @formersquid 🎆 Going deep on BG, and hitting on the second-best Eclipsed creature (Kithkin), proved to be the keys to victory!
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Magic Data Science @mtgds.bsky.social · 10/02/2026
~ ≠ ≈ I'm open to using the ~ if you're texting or in a hurry, but on an earnings report, I'd probably take the time to figure out how to write the ≈. Also, some wild keming choices here
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Magic Data Science @mtgds.bsky.social · 10/02/2026
Here is where ECL lands on the #PrinceVPauper ternary plot: decidedly _not_ Pauper. The rares and uncommons are relatively stronger than the commons, to a greater extent than pretty much any recent set. At common, look for good removal, friendly creature types, and... good luck!
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Magic Data Science @mtgds.bsky.social · 06/02/2026
5) The least Open cards -- the ones that are most narrowly drafted/played -- are mostly finely-targeted Typal synergy cards, many of which explicitly say the name of a creature type. This is very Bloomburresque.
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Magic Data Science @mtgds.bsky.social · 06/02/2026
4) The most "Open" mono-color cards are, as usual, the strong removal cards, which are (a) desirable and (b) not usually synergy-reliant
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Magic Data Science @mtgds.bsky.social · 06/02/2026
3) Contrast those with the Typal hybrid "signposts", which are drafted and played much more like gold cards than hybrid. In the graph ^^^^, you can see the distinction between these two groups of hybrid commons -- the gluey Changelings are way at the top of the distribution.
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Magic Data Science @mtgds.bsky.social · 06/02/2026
2) The gluey hybrid Changelings are, as you might expect, pretty high-Openness. The "theoretical maximum" for these cards is a 7, which would be the 7 color-touching pairs playing the card equally frequently, and several of these are close, at 6+
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Magic Data Science @mtgds.bsky.social · 06/02/2026
...as the graph shows, it also has the wide/low distribution characteristic of a fairly on-rails format. Here are some observations. 1) The most Open cards are, as usual, the colorless lands and artifacts, although even within these cards there are some archetype leanings.
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Magic Data Science @mtgds.bsky.social · 06/02/2026
Some time ago, I came up with a method of measuring the "openness" of a card in Limited, which can summarize up to describing a particular format. One of the more interesting things I found was how relatively "on-rails" Bloomburrow was, with its 10 typal archetypes. You can...
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Magic Data Science @mtgds.bsky.social · 02/02/2026
@cubecobra.com Excited about the 1.5 update! Especially Scryfall drag'n'drop. Does this update mean that the job that calculates Cube Elo will run regularly? Also, at the moment, it seems like Playtest Data is missing?
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Magic Data Science @mtgds.bsky.social · 30/01/2026
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Magic Data Science @mtgds.bsky.social · 29/01/2026
Clearly Alara, and specifically, Bant
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Magic Data Science @mtgds.bsky.social · 28/01/2026
Here is a plot of GIHWR by rank within color, for commons and uncommons in ECL, per @17lands.bsky.social Among commons, it's G and then everyone else, although R and B have a higher top-end before falling off, while U and W are a little flatter. Among uncommons, ...
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Magic Data Science @mtgds.bsky.social · 28/01/2026
I'm one of these, @maro254.bsky.social Watched 20 years, 20 lessons Listened to the DtW podcast episodes expanding on that Listened to every DtW at least once Had a million ideas for models to build Spent a year working on those intermittently Started MTGDS.
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Magic Data Science @mtgds.bsky.social · 27/01/2026
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Magic Data Science @mtgds.bsky.social · 27/01/2026
They made a card just for me! 🥰 🫶 WotC
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Magic Data Science @mtgds.bsky.social · 24/01/2026
... the creatures were in FIN. FIN > MOM > EMN > IKO are the four sets with the highest mean P+T.)
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Magic Data Science @mtgds.bsky.social · 24/01/2026
This holds up if you look at all cards, not just commons & uncommons. I just thought this was interesting, and a little counterintuitive. Especially after you add all of the -1/-1 counters, ECL is surprisingly low-toughness! (It's also interesting to see just how big...
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Magic Data Science @mtgds.bsky.social · 24/01/2026
...all but 7 of these sets has higher average toughness than power, but the biggest toughness outliers are all old sets: Alpha, Alliances, & Antiquities. But even in the last year, Final Fantasy and The Last Airbender are substantially more tough-leaning than Lorwyn Eclipsed.
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Magic Data Science @mtgds.bsky.social · 24/01/2026
With all of the Treefolk and -1/-1 counters running around ECL, folks have been talking about how high-toughness the creatures in this set are. But, are they? 🤔 I went to make this graph, expecting ECL to be an obvious outlier, and it's... just not! As you can see... 👇
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Magic Data Science @mtgds.bsky.social · 23/01/2026
What does it say about a format if this is the highest GIHWR blue common?
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Magic Data Science @mtgds.bsky.social · 22/01/2026
@alanpep.bsky.social has been collecting these Archetype Guides from booster boxes since they started doing them, and was kind enough to share two with me: Unfinity and Dominaria Remastered. Thanks so much!
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Magic Data Science @mtgds.bsky.social · 22/01/2026
Several folks on @maro254.bsky.social's Blogatog reported that players at prerelease were confused by the official 5-pair archetype guide, hesitating to explore the other five pairs, despite some support for them. So I made an unofficial guide to those secondary archetypes!
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Magic Data Science @mtgds.bsky.social · 21/01/2026
#5 is even more out-of-left-field
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Magic Data Science @mtgds.bsky.social · 21/01/2026
I love that Magic is so far from being "solved." Here are your day-one top GIHWR commons.
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Magic Data Science @mtgds.bsky.social · 21/01/2026
Kotaki Sol Rings
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Magic Data Science @mtgds.bsky.social · 21/01/2026
Three Burley Vistas
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Magic Data Science @mtgds.bsky.social · 21/01/2026
This guy. Not sure what's going on here.
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Magic Data Science @mtgds.bsky.social · 21/01/2026
Some Danner Wilds; the inspiration for this thread
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Magic Data Science @mtgds.bsky.social · 21/01/2026
Some pretty hardcore Arcane Signets
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Magic Data Science @mtgds.bsky.social · 21/01/2026
So many Urza's, part II
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Magic Data Science @mtgds.bsky.social · 21/01/2026
So many Urza's
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Magic Data Science @mtgds.bsky.social · 21/01/2026
Another four seasons, which I should have put earlier in the thread
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Magic Data Science @mtgds.bsky.social · 21/01/2026
Magali 🤝 Thalia
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Magic Data Science @mtgds.bsky.social · 21/01/2026
Not sure why these exist, but they do!
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Magic Data Science @mtgds.bsky.social · 21/01/2026
I wasn't aware of this set, although I suspect many of you were. Non-consecutive collector numbers?
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Magic Data Science @mtgds.bsky.social · 21/01/2026
Ransom note was part of the Markov Manor ARG, wasn't it?
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Magic Data Science @mtgds.bsky.social · 21/01/2026
I was not aware of this set, but it rules
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Magic Data Science @mtgds.bsky.social · 21/01/2026
Several through-the-seasons variants, which I do find charming
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Magic Data Science @mtgds.bsky.social · 21/01/2026
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Magic Data Science @mtgds.bsky.social · 21/01/2026
A couple of Guildgates
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Magic Data Science @mtgds.bsky.social · 21/01/2026
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Magic Data Science @mtgds.bsky.social · 21/01/2026
I'll put a couple of Un-ones here -- some of the more interesting examples
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