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Marius Strubenhoff

@mstrubenhoff.bsky.social
123 followers 283 following 191 posts

🇩🇪 foreign policy analyst based in Paris 🇫🇷. Watching the 🇪🇺 and everything around it.

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Marius Strubenhoff @mstrubenhoff.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
Everybody is talking about how AI safety. But AI safety isn't just about rogue AI. My latest Substack post zeroes in on two developments: how AI might affect nuclear deterrence, and how new technologies reshape the fortunes of defenders and attackers. substack.com/home/post/p-...
substack.com
The Age of Steel Porcupines
Is It Here to Stay or Did We Just Witness the Beginning of Its End?
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Marius Strubenhoff @mstrubenhoff.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
Wie denkt China über militärische KI? Ich habe mich gefreut, dieser Frage gemeinsam mit Anselm Küsters im Auftrag des NATO Defense College nachzugehen. Im @sz-dossier.de von heute morgen erfahrt Ihr mehr über unsere Forschung. www.sueddeutsche.de/dossier/doss...
sueddeutsche.de
Digitalwende: Wie Peking über militärische KI denkt | SZ Dossier
Mistral-Chef: US-Konkurrenten handeln „fahrlässig“, BNetzA hat noch keine Anfragen für Frequenzausnahmen, EU berät über Notfallprotokoll gegen hybride Angriffe, CSAM-Trilogverhandlungen drehen sich um...
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Marius Strubenhoff @mstrubenhoff.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
Wie halten Liberale es mit dem Staat? Keine einfache Frage. In populistischen Kreisen ist heute die Skepsis gegenüber einem als bevormundend wahrgenommenen Staat verbreitet. Das strahlt auf liberale Debatten aus. Ein Versuch der Entwirrung. www.aevumquarterly.de/artikel/die-...
aevumquarterly.de
Die Gemeinschaft und die Seele des Einzelnen · ævum quarterly
Willkommen im Jahre 1819. Sie sitzen auf den Bänken des Königlichen Athenäums in Paris, wo Benjamin Constant gerade über die Freiheitsverständnisse des Altertums und der Moderne vorträgt. Wir sind hie...
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Marius Strubenhoff @mstrubenhoff.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
I love intellectual history. But even more than studying ideas from centuries past, it’s more important than ever to understand what happened recently. Because we went kinda nuts. Check out this article for a very personal attempt to understand how. substack.com/@mariusstrub...
substack.com
When and How Did We Go Nuts?
A Preliminary and Partly Personal Attempt at the Intellectual History of the World Since the Financial Crisis
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Marius Strubenhoff @mstrubenhoff.bsky.social · 07/09/2026
Time to repost this. If you‘re wondering what happened in Saxony-Anhalt yesterday and what’s going on in the world in general, this article tries to make sense of it. mariusstrubenhoff.substack.com/p/the-revers...
mariusstrubenhoff.substack.com
The Reverse Populist Wave
Understanding It Is the First Step to not Getting Trapped in the Present
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Marius Strubenhoff @mstrubenhoff.bsky.social · 01/09/2026
The EU referendum in Iceland is a good opportunity to discuss the North from a security perspective again. Not that we needed a reason for that anyway, but here you go: mariusstrubenhoff.substack.com/p/maritime-s...
mariusstrubenhoff.substack.com
Maritime Security in the North Atlantic
And Why It’s Even More Important Than You May Have Thought
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Marius Strubenhoff @mstrubenhoff.bsky.social · 18/08/2026
Are we heading for a fullblown populist takeover in the West? Predictions are always treacherous, but at least they're falsifiable in Popper's best sense. So I took a stab at a plausible scenario that I think might play out: the "reverse populist wave". mariusstrubenhoff.substack.com/p/the-revers...
mariusstrubenhoff.substack.com
The Reverse Populist Wave
Understanding It Is the First Step to not Getting Trapped in the Present
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Marius Strubenhoff @mstrubenhoff.bsky.social · 17/08/2026
This should be on your reading list for today. www.wsj.com/world/middle...
wsj.com
Iran’s Secret Plan to Escalate the War
Intercepted communications and other intelligence suggest a strategic shift by hard-line leaders to raise the costs for the U.S. and its regional allies.
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Reposted by Marius Strubenhoff
NOELREPORTS @noelreports.com · 15/08/2026
Former UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson says a German government official told him before Russia’s full-scale invasion that it would be better if Ukraine lost quickly so it would all be over. He said the episode reflected Berlin and Paris’s failed strategy toward Russia after Crimea. #Ukraine
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Marius Strubenhoff @mstrubenhoff.bsky.social · 13/08/2026
Für eine Gesellschaft, die Dir in jeder Bäckerschlange zeigt, dass Du nicht dazugehörst. www1.wdr.de/politik/poli...
www1.wdr.de
Neue Parteilinie bei der NRW-FDP? Weitreichende Forderungen zu Abschiebungen vorgestellt
Die FDP -Fraktion im NRW -Landtag fordert bei Abschiebungen mehr Kompetenzen für das Land und weniger für Kommunen.
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Marius Strubenhoff @mstrubenhoff.bsky.social · 03/08/2026
It's time for another post. Negotiating with Missiles. Thoughts on the State of the Hormuz Standoff and the Attitudes That Keep Us From Seeing Clearly. mariusstrubenhoff.substack.com/p/negotiatin...
mariusstrubenhoff.substack.com
Negotiating with Missiles
Thoughts on the State of the Hormuz Standoff and the Attitudes That Keep Us From Seeing Clearly
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Marius Strubenhoff @mstrubenhoff.bsky.social · 27/07/2026
Ok, so I joined the trend: you can find me on substack now. I'd be delighted to meet you over there, too. mariusstrubenhoff.substack.com/p/freedom-or...
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Marius Strubenhoff @mstrubenhoff.bsky.social · 25/07/2026
Interested in European maritime security as much as I am? Take a look at Ireland‘s Presidency of the Council of the European Union. commongroundeurope.eu/blog/neutral...
commongroundeurope.eu
Neutral Ireland Takes on Presidency of the Council of the European Union – With a Promise to Focus on European Security
Discover why neutral Ireland is making maritime security, critical infrastructure and defence cooperation priorities of its 2026 EU Council Presidency.
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Marius Strubenhoff @mstrubenhoff.bsky.social · 14/07/2026
Happy to join France 24 with Kira Rudik, Ukrainian MP and leader of Holos, and Robert Parsons, former BBC correspondent in Moscow and Chief foreign policy editor at France 24, for a discussion of the Coalition of the Willing Summit. www.france24.com/en/tv-shows/...
france24.com
The Debate - Willing to pay: Europe faces the bill for backing Ukraine without the US
Forget last week's Nato summit, where Donald Trump put the alliance through another rollercoaster. It's Bastille Day in Paris, with the “Coalition of the willing” – Nato minus the United States – gath...
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Marius Strubenhoff @mstrubenhoff.bsky.social · 01/07/2026
Heute table.standpunkt: Das Ende des Iran-Kriegs droht für Israel zum Spiegelbild der Suez-Krise zu werden. table.media/security/sta...
table.media
Das Ende des Iran-Kriegs droht für Israel zum Spiegelbild der Suez-Krise zu werden
Israels Sicherheitslage sei so schlecht wie lange nicht, schreibt Marius Strubenhoff. Es werde jetzt darum gehen, dem sicherheitspolitischen Bankrott des Rechtspopulismus eine zentristische Alternative entgegenzustellen, so der Experte für Außen- und Sicherheitspolitik.
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Marius Strubenhoff @mstrubenhoff.bsky.social · 26/06/2026
Trump möchte auf der Gewinnerseite stehen. Und sein Eindruck, wer der Gewinner sein wird, hat sich geändert.
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Marius Strubenhoff @mstrubenhoff.bsky.social · 23/06/2026
Heute wird Marc Bloch auf Initiative von Präsident Macron ins Panthéon aufgenommen: Mit Abstand die größte Ehre, die Frankreich zu erweisen hat. Freue mich, dass ich für die FAZ über Blochs Bedeutung schreiben durfte. www.faz.net/aktuell/wiss...
faz.net
Was Marc Bloch für Frankreich bedeutet
Politische Schwäche muss gesellschaftliche Gründe haben: 1940 nahm der Historiker Marc Bloch diese französische Tradition der Selbstprüfung auf. Auch deshalb hat ihm Präsident Macron einen Platz im Pa...
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Marius Strubenhoff @mstrubenhoff.bsky.social · 16/06/2026
2027 wird in vier der fünf größten EU-Mitgliedsstaaten gewählt. Worauf Europa sich einstellen sollte, haben Professor Andrea De Petris und ich mir mit Blick auf Frankreich und Italien genauer angeschaut. 👇👇👇 www.cep.eu/de/eu-themen...
cep.eu
Schicksalsjahr 2027: Das Superwahljahr und die Zukunft der Europäischen Union | cep - Centrum für europäische Politik
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Marius Strubenhoff @mstrubenhoff.bsky.social · 16/06/2026
Nein Herr Juncker, nein. www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2...
telegraph.co.uk
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Marius Strubenhoff @mstrubenhoff.bsky.social · 08/06/2026
Mit Ansage. Spurensuche für den Schaden für Deutschland, Frankreich und Europa muss Jahre zurückgehen. www.tagesschau.de/ausland/euro...
tagesschau.de
Berlin und Paris stoppen Kampfjet-Projekt FCAS
Kanzler Merz und der französische Präsident Macron haben laut Regierungskreisen das gemeinsame Kampfflugzeug-Projekt FCAS beendet. Die Unternehmen Dassault und Airbus hätten sich nicht einigen können.
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POLITICO Europe @politico.eu · 28/05/2026
Turkey does not recognize the Republic of Cyprus, which currently holds the rotating presidency of the Council of the EU. That has made things awkward for the bloc ahead of this year’s U.N. climate summit in Antalya. 🔗 www.politico.eu/article/turk...
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Marius Strubenhoff @mstrubenhoff.bsky.social · 28/05/2026
No Sinner, no Alcaraz at Roland Garros. Novak and Sascha just got an adrenaline rush.
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Marius Strubenhoff @mstrubenhoff.bsky.social · 26/05/2026
www.lefigaro.fr/politique/re...
lefigaro.fr
Référendums, calendrier de la dissolution, ordonnances pour « agir vite » : le plan d’Édouard Philippe pour ses premiers jours à l’Élysée
INFO LE FIGARO - Le candidat d’Horizons a exhumé un vieux projet de loi inscrivant une « règle d’or » budgétaire dans la Constitution, qu’il souhaite « soumettre directement à référendum » en même tem...
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Marius Strubenhoff @mstrubenhoff.bsky.social · 24/05/2026
Zypern hat gewählt: www.euronews.com/my-europe/20...
euronews.com
Cyprus parliamentary elections: DISY and AKEL race for first place
Cyprus’s traditional centre-right and left parties hold their ground, while the far-right ELAM makes gains and moves up to third place. #EuropeNews
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Marius Strubenhoff @mstrubenhoff.bsky.social · 14/05/2026
Das größte Problem von Friedrich Merz: Er ist kein Klempner der Macht.
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Marius Strubenhoff @mstrubenhoff.bsky.social · 07/05/2026
Take note. www.timesofisrael.com/trump-report...
timesofisrael.com
Trump reportedly paused Hormuz op after Saudis denied use of airspace; US awaits Iran deal response
US officials say Gulf states were surprised by announcement of Project Freedom, which triggered fears of renewed fighting; top Iranian negotiator mocks US for halting operation
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Henning Hoff @henninghoff.bsky.social · 04/05/2026
Important developments at the EPC. And Merz skipped the meeting. Not a good look.
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Phillips OBrien @phillipspobrien.bsky.social · 03/05/2026
Hi All, Just sent out my free weekend update. With recent developments clear, it is safe to ask this question. Is Ukraine taking the initiative from Russia in the ranged and land wars? The Ukrainians did in the sea war and now seem to be doing it in other domains. open.substack.com/pub/phillips...
open.substack.com
Weekend Update #183: Ukraine Taking The Initiative?
Long Range and Medium Strike; The Land War; The US Is Now Boasting About Not Helping
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Ulrike Franke @rikefranke.eu · 03/05/2026
Expected, but still relevant as it tells us something about the Iran-Russia partnership apnews.com/article/russ...
apnews.com
Russia is sending upgraded drones used in the Ukraine war to Iran, officials say
U.S. and European officials have told The Associated Press that Russia is sending a shipment of drones to Iran including upgraded versions of the drone technology that Tehran originally supplied to Mo...
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Marius Strubenhoff @mstrubenhoff.bsky.social · 02/05/2026
Ich finde ja, dass es an der Zeit ist, dass der Bundeskanzler auch einmal ausspricht, dass der König im Weißen Haus keine Kleider hat. Was aber so haarsträubend an der ganzen Geschichte ist, ist, dass es gegenläufig gegen Merz‘ erklärte Politik der letzten Wochen und Monate ist.
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Thomas Wiegold @wiegold.de · 02/05/2026
Trump reduziert nicht nur US-Truppen in Deutschland - auch die Stationierung weit reichender Präzisionswaffen wie Tomahawk und Dark Eagle in Wiesbaden dürfte vom Tisch sein:
augengeradeaus.net
Trumps Kürzungen: Keine US-Mittelstreckenwaffen nach Wiesbaden – Augen geradeaus!
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Marius Strubenhoff @mstrubenhoff.bsky.social · 29/04/2026
James Talarico, Kandidat der Demokraten für den Senat in Texas, liegt in einer neuen Umfrage 7-8 Prozent vor seinen potenziellen republikanischen Herausforderern. Wäre das erste Mal seit 1994, dass ein Demokrat bundesstaatsweit in Texas gewinnt. www.axios.com/local/austin...
axios.com
Talarico leads Cornyn and Paxton in UT poll
The survey was conducted as the two Republican candidates continue to battle for the GOP nomination.
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Marius Strubenhoff @mstrubenhoff.bsky.social · 28/04/2026
Nach Syrien bekommt nun das nächste Regime Probleme, das in Sachen Sicherheit auf die russische Karte gesetzt hat. Keine Fälle ohne Zusammenhang. Syrien war für Russland immer auch als logistischer Hub Richtung Afrika relevant. www.lemonde.fr/en/le-monde-...
lemonde.fr
Russia, an unreliable ally for Mali's weakened junta
On Sunday, April 26, after the Azawad Liberation Front rebels seized control of Kidal, at least 400 paramilitaries from Africa Corps were evacuated from the city under armed escort.
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Marius Strubenhoff @mstrubenhoff.bsky.social · 27/04/2026
Mood in Russia turns bleak as war in Ukraine drags on and economy suffers www.washingtonpost.com/world/2026/0...
washingtonpost.com
Mood in Russia turns bleak as war in Ukraine drags on and economy suffers
With the war in its fifth year, talks stalled and sanctions biting deeper, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s ratings are falling and citizens are voicing despair.
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Marius Strubenhoff @mstrubenhoff.bsky.social · 25/04/2026
Israel fears Trump angling for Lebanon deal to offset Iran missteps www.al-monitor.com/originals/20...
al-monitor.com
Israel fears Trump angling for Lebanon deal to offset Iran missteps
Some Israelis worry the US president might force them to accept an unsatisfactory agreement driven by his inability to secure a tangible achievement in Iran.
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Marius Strubenhoff @mstrubenhoff.bsky.social · 24/04/2026
At least 34 Iranian ships have managed to get past the US blockade. www.al-monitor.com/newsletter/2...
al-monitor.com
How are tankers bypassing Hormuz blockade?
At least 34 Iran-linked tankers have managed to bypass the US blockade of Iranian ports in the Strait of Hormuz. How?
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Reposted by Marius Strubenhoff
Tom Nuttall @tomnuttall.bsky.social · 22/04/2026
Today Germany published a military strategy—the first in postwar history—designed to steer the development of a Bundeswehr into which vast sums are being poured. Yesterday @shashj.bsky.social and I discussed it with Carsten Breuer, Germany's top soldier. My report: www.economist.com/europe/2026/...
economist.com
Can the Bundeswehr fight?
In an interview with The Economist, Germany’s top general promises his forces will be “war-ready”
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Marius Strubenhoff @mstrubenhoff.bsky.social · 22/04/2026
EV sales up 51 percent in Europe. www.theguardian.com/environment/...
theguardian.com
Electric car sales soar 51% in mainland Europe as Iran war drives up fuel prices
Data shows 224,000 new EVs were registered in March, with Norway leading way in terms of switching
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Marius Strubenhoff @mstrubenhoff.bsky.social · 22/04/2026
"[O]fficials said [Trump] seemed wary about restarting hostilities and prolonging a conflict that is deeply unpopular with the American public." Genau das werden die Iraner gedacht haben, als sie entschieden haben, niemanden nach Islamabad zu schicken. www.wsj.com/world/middle...
wsj.com
U.S., Iran Delay Talks in High-Stakes Game of Chicken
The White House paused plans to send Vice President JD Vance to Pakistan after Tehran held its negotiators back at the last minute.
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Marius Strubenhoff @mstrubenhoff.bsky.social · 19/04/2026
„Qatar’s energy minister, Saad al-Kaabi, announced that it could take up to five years to repair, and estimated that the annual loss in revenue for Qatar would be about $20 billion, equivalent to 37 percent of the total government revenue“ www.nytimes.com/2026/04/19/w...
nytimes.com
In Qatar, Trapped Between the U.S. and Iran, War Forced a Reckoning
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Marius Strubenhoff @mstrubenhoff.bsky.social · 19/04/2026
Behind Trump's Public Bravado on the War, He Grapples With His Own Fears. www.wsj.com/politics/nat...
wsj.com
Behind Trump’s Public Bravado on the War, He Grapples With His Own Fears
The president’s impulsive style has never been tested in a sustained military conflict, and he’s been ruminating on Jimmy Carter’s failure in Iran.
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Marius Strubenhoff @mstrubenhoff.bsky.social · 19/04/2026
Das aktuelle ISW-Update lohnt sich zum Zustand der russischen Luftabwehr im Kontext der ukrainischen Kampagne gegen die russische Ölindustrie. understandingwar.org/research/rus...
understandingwar.org
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 18, 2026
Ukraine’s long-range strike campaign continues to exploit overstretched Russian air defenses to damage oil infrastructure and military assets
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Marius Strubenhoff @mstrubenhoff.bsky.social · 17/04/2026
Happy to see that Euractiv picked up on my most recent EU policy briefing. www.euractiv.com/news/high-no...
euractiv.com
High north hots up | Euractiv
There are growing EU fears over security, infrastructure resilience and great-power rivalry in the Arctic region.
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Marius Strubenhoff @mstrubenhoff.bsky.social · 14/04/2026
Freue mich, dass mein neuestes CEP-Briefing heute veröffentlicht wurde, das sich aus EU-Perspektive mit den sicherheitspolitischen Herausforderungen in der Region von der Arktis bis in die Nordsee beschäftigt. Freue mich auf Reaktionen und Feedback. www.cep.eu/de/eu-themen...
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Marius Strubenhoff @mstrubenhoff.bsky.social · 13/04/2026
Auch Peter Magyar wird natürlich Ungarns Interessen mit Nachdruck vertreten. Die BReg und Europa sollten bereit sein, darauf einzugehen. Es muss deutlich werden, dass ein pro-europäischer Kurs für Ungarns Bevölkerung mehr Früchte trägt als ein anti-europäischer.
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Phillips OBrien @phillipspobrien.bsky.social · 12/04/2026
Hi All, Just sent out my free weekend update. The big story this week was the Ukrainians speaking truthfully about the USA not being their (or Europe's) friend. In war seeing reality as opposed to what you desperately want to see, is a fundamental test. open.substack.com/pub/phillips...
open.substack.com
Weekend Update #180: The Ukrainians Stop Pretending
Costs And Balances In Russian Oil; The Russian Spring Offensive After 3 Weeks
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Marius Strubenhoff @mstrubenhoff.bsky.social · 08/04/2026
Bei allen Nachrichten der letzten 18 Stunden fast unbemerkt geblieben: Die Nachwahl in Marjorie Taylor Greenes altem Wahlkreis in Georgia. Clayton Fuller zieht für die Republikaner ins House ein. Doch nur 55,8 Prozent. Im tiefroten www.nbcnews.com/politics/202...
nbcnews.com
Georgia House Special Runoff Election 2026 Live Results
See live results from the 2026 Georgia House Special Runoff election as votes are counted.
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Financial Times @financialtimes.com · 01/04/2026
Starmer signals major UK pivot towards EU after Trump taunts ft.trib.al/RwN0AvH
ft.trib.al
Starmer signals major UK pivot towards EU after Trump taunts
British prime minister says closer ties between London and Brussels are ‘in our long-term national interest’
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Reposted by Marius Strubenhoff
The Kyiv Independent @kyivindependent.com · 30/03/2026
⚡️Ukraine to help open Strait of Hormuz as part of Gulf weapons deals, Zelensky says. Ukraine will supply weapons and defense technology, including systems that can help unblock the Strait of Hormuz, to Gulf countries under new agreements, President Volodymyr Zelensky told reporters on March 30.
kyivindependent.com
Ukraine to help open Strait of Hormuz as part of Gulf weapons deals, Zelensky says
Ukraine will supply weapons and defense technology to Gulf countries under new agreements, President Volodymyr Zelensky told reporters on March 30.
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Marius Strubenhoff @mstrubenhoff.bsky.social · 29/03/2026
"Russia is preparing to temporarily suspend all gasoline exports as of April 1, likely in response to domestic gasoline price increases partly caused by Ukraine’s long-range strike campaigns against Russian oil infrastructure." understandingwar.org/research/rus...
understandingwar.org
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 28, 2026
Toplines Russian forces struck a maternity hospital in Odesa City overnight on March 27 to 28. The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Russian forces launched 273...
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