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U.S. intelligence warns of possible Russian drone attacks on Mediterranean states
.US intelligence has warned several European governments about a possible Russian drone operation targeting Spain, France or Italy, according to a report by Spanish newspaper El Mundo .
The report, based on anonymous sources close to Lithuania’s Defence Ministry, diplomatic sources and defence analysts, says Russia could seek to launch drones from commercial vessels in the Mediterranean, potentially using shipping containers to conceal the aircraft.
The information has reportedly been circulated among European governments following CIA Director John Ratcliffe’s visit to Moscow on 25 August. There have been media reports that Ratcliffe travelled to Moscow to warn Russia against attacks or provocations against NATO.
Lithuanian officials are reportedly among those briefed on the possible scenario. The country’s Foreign Minister Kestutis Budrys separately told Reuters on Wednesday that allied intelligence pointed to a risk that Russia could broaden pressure on NATO countries through attacks on critical infrastructure and other forms of hybrid activity. “There are some considerations on the Russian side to escalate horizontally, so to say, or geographically,” Budrys said.
Italy’s Defence Minister Guido Crosetto, however, said on Thursday that the reported warning about possible Russian attacks against Italy, France and Spain was not confirmed.
“The alarm raised this morning by a Spanish newspaper … is not confirmed,” Crosetto said, warning against adding to tensions in an already “nervous” international environment.
The Gerbera option
According to the El Mundo report, the drone Russia could potentially use is the Gerbera, a small drone around two metres long, with a wingspan of approximately 2.5 metres and weight of up to 18 kilograms. Its reported range is up to 600 kilometres, with a top speed of around 160 kilometres per hour.
Its relatively small size would make it easier to transport and launch from a vessel than larger Shahed- or Geran-type drones.
The potential objective would not necessarily be to destroy a major facility. With a small explosive payload, such a drone could instead cause a fire, damage exposed equipment or temporarily disrupt an airport or port.
That could give an operation an impact well beyond the physical damage caused by the drone itself.
British defence analyst Keir Giles told El Mundo that Russia would not necessarily focus on countries closest to its territory.
“The target will be where Europe’s weakest point is,” he said, arguing that countries with insufficiently integrated air and missile defence systems could remain vulnerable despite their geographical distance from Russia.
A wider campaign below the threshold of war
The reported drone scenario comes against the backdrop of a broader European debate about Russia’s use of sabotage, cyberattacks, airspace violations and other forms of hybrid activity.
European officials told Reuters this week that Russia was intensifying such operations in an effort to undermine support for Ukraine, test Western resolve and exploit divisions among European countries. EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas said Europe was facing a rapid increase in sabotage attacks and airspace violations.
“The threat of Russian hybrid attacks across Europe is only growing. Putin is a textbook bully. Moscow’s hybrid attacks are designed to intimidate us, paralyse our societies and make us hesitate to act. That is precisely what Putin wants. We should not let fear dictate our choices. We should match the level of these attacks with concrete action and a confident response. Europe’s security requires it and citizens expect it”, Kallas told the European parliament 10 days ago.
France has also said that Russian hybrid activity has intensified. President Emmanuel Macron said last week that France was preparing a plan to protect critical infrastructure against drone and cyberattacks, citing the recent attempted drone attack at Leipzig airport, which Germany has attributed to Moscow. Russia has rejected European accusations of hybrid attacks.
Spain, France and Italy are all due to hold national elections in 2027, adding another layer to concerns about the potential political consequences of a disruptive attack. The reported intelligence assessment suggests that the effect Moscow could seek would not necessarily be military alone, but could include public anxiety, economic disruption and pressure on governments over their support for Ukraine.
Maritime launches have been tested before
The possibility of launching drones from ships is not entirely theoretical.
Ukrainian outlet Defense Express reported last year that Russia had experimented with launching drones from maritime platforms, including demonstrations by ZALA, a Russian drone manufacturer linked to the Kalashnikov defence conglomerate.
There has also been a more recent incident in the Baltic Sea. In February, a Swedish naval unit detected a drone taking off from the Russian intelligence vessel Zhigulevsk in the Øresund Strait. Sweden interfered with the drone and described its flight as a violation of Swedish airspace.
Russia’s maritime capabilities have therefore become part of wider European concerns about how Moscow could operate below the threshold of a conventional attack.
The concern is not limited to the Mediterranean. Earlier this month, an Italian fighter jet operating under NATO’s Baltic air policing mission shot down a suspected Russian Geran-2 drone that had entered Lithuanian airspace from Belarus. Lithuanian authorities said the drone carried an explosive.
Sources: El Mundo, Reuters, Euronews, ANSA
Caption: El Mundo infographic showing the potential range of Russian “Gerbera” drones launched from commercial vessels in the Mediterranean Sea.
