Sign in

July (they/them)

@misovortex.bsky.social
1.9K followers 492 following 1.8K posts

Hurricane inner-core dynamics & observations Sapporo, Japan

PostsRepliesMedia
July (they/them) @misovortex.bsky.social · 22h
Choi-wan this morning 😎 Noticing it's maybe starting to develop the large outer ring that was seen in other super typhoons this year like Bavi and Dolphin. This feature is potentially very long lived, but Choi-wan is quickly heading poleward and will baroclinically transition soon.
071
July (they/them) @misovortex.bsky.social · 04/10/2026
Typhoon Choi-wan providing some nice eye candy.
0120
July (they/them) @misovortex.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
Yes, Matthew is the source of the infamous "skull" face hurricane satellite image, which emerged just before landfall in Haiti.
040
July (they/them) @misovortex.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
Matthew holds the record for the southernmost Cat 5 in the Atlantic basin, and ended the 2008-2015 Cat 5 drought. Since Matthew there have been 12 more Atlantic Cat 5s. The storm is regarded as the worst weather disaster in Haiti's recent history. Aftermath via NYT: www.nytimes.com/interactive/...
Color-enhanced infrared satellite image of a powerful Category 4 Hurricane Matthew making landfall in Sud Department in far southwestern Haiti at 11:19 UTC on Oct 4, 2016. Image from Wunderground.Overhead photograph from Haiti in the aftermath of Hurricane Matthew showing destroyed shacks, houses, and buildings amid strewn debris and foliage in a poor residential area, with people walking on the cleared roads in between. Image from Al Jazeera.
150
July (they/them) @misovortex.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
Ten years ago today (eastern time): Hurricane Matthew reaches Category 5 intensity, the first to do so since Felix (2007). Matthew caused devastation across the Caribbean, esp. in Haiti, where over 500-1000 people were killed and cholera cases spiked across the impoverished southern region.
162
July (they/them) @misovortex.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Again I'm noticing an annular appearance (latest SHIPS annular hurricane index is 80/100) and relatively weak/low-topped eyewall asymmetries similar to Karina. Interestingly Nolo's presentation here looks kind of "in between" those of Karina and Lowell in the quoted post's snapshots.
150
July (they/them) @misovortex.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
A case of a rapidly strengthening TC with eyewall lightning nearly completely absent, assuming there's no undersampling. To me this suggests distinct modes of vortex structure during intensification.
1131
July (they/them) @misovortex.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
Video of a flythrough in Hurricane Polo's eye as seen from N43RF. Credit to @flynoaa on IG, original caption in alt text. www.instagram.com/flynoaa/reel...
0117
July (they/them) @misovortex.bsky.social · 05/09/2026
Some kind of weird (barotropic?) instability occurred along the eyewall edge of Hurricane Lowell. Reminds me of those wispy cirrus swirls you sometimes see in the eye at sunrise.
071
July (they/them) @misovortex.bsky.social · 02/09/2026
Sunrise on now Category 5 Hurricane #Lowell, the second Cat 5 of the 2026 eastern/central Pacific season.
040
July (they/them) @misovortex.bsky.social · 02/09/2026
The most obvious differences are Lowell's small eye w/ bursting convection & significantly colder CDO Tbs vs Karina's annular presentation. Karina has also been steadier than still-intensifying Lowell. But that's not nearly enough physical info. Steady/weakening TCs do have these eyewall outbreaks.
GOES-West infrared image of Hurricane Lowell on 02 Sep at 10:40 UTC a few hundred km southeast of Hawaii with an expansive circular ring of cold cloud tops surrounding a small eye.GOES-West infrared image of Hurricane Karina on 02 Sep at 10:40 UTC in open ocean with an "annular" satellite presentation: a highly symmetrical but relatively warm central dense overcast surrounding a large, clear eye with minimal outer banding.
170
July (they/them) @misovortex.bsky.social · 02/09/2026
Two TCs with nearly identical intensity, but only one with an electrified eyewall. Finding out why is really interesting to me and IMO would strongly benefit storm nowcasting. Definitely on my "millenium prize" list of TC internal dynamics questions.
170
July (they/them) @misovortex.bsky.social · 01/09/2026
Today marks the halfway point of the official Atlantic hurricane season. Here's how each northern hemisphere basin is doing so far in 2026 compared to the 1991-2020 average ACE. Figures are from here: tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Realtime/ind...
Chart showing total accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) so far in 2026 (blue line) compared to the 1991-2020 average (green line) for the north Atlantic basin. As of Aug 31, the 2026 value is 3.7 ACE units, while the climatology for this date is 36.3.Chart showing total accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) so far in 2026 (blue line) compared to the 1991-2020 average (green line) for the northeast Pacific basin including the central Pacific (i.e. Pacific Ocean east of 180 longitude). As of Aug 31, the 2026 value is 100.1 ACE units, while the climatology for this date is 80.3.Chart showing total accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) so far in 2026 (blue line) compared to the 1991-2020 average (green line) for the northwest Pacific basin (i.e. Pacific Ocean west of 180 longitude). As of Aug 31, the 2026 value is 214.6 ACE units, while the climatology for this date is 131.8.
261
July (they/them) @misovortex.bsky.social · 29/08/2026
Here was me.
010
July (they/them) @misovortex.bsky.social · 29/08/2026
Ida was the last major hurricane I chased. This is footage of the strongest conditions at my location in Houma. I vaguely recall winds like this were intermittent but short lived, so maybe caused by a roll or inner band. We didn't get deep into the eyewall, but this might be representative of it.
171
July (they/them) @misovortex.bsky.social · 29/08/2026
New Orleans/Slidell, LA radar reflectivity showing Hurricane Ida's intensification and landfall in southeastern Louisiana.
140
July (they/them) @misovortex.bsky.social · 29/08/2026
Five years ago today: Hurricane Ida makes landfall in Louisiana with maximum winds of 150mph (240km/h). Later as an extratropical cyclone, Ida caused destructive flooding and a tornado outbreak across the northeast U.S., ultimately resulting in at least $75 billion in damages and 87 deaths.
1206
July (they/them) @misovortex.bsky.social · 22/08/2026
Typhoon #Saudel steadily deepening. The core passed near/over the mostly uninhabited volcanic island of Agrihan in the Northern Mariana Islands several hours ago. Will present yet another threat to the Ryūkyū Islands in Okinawa prefecture in about 4 days. #CNMI #Okinawa
092
July (they/them) @misovortex.bsky.social · 19/08/2026
Fun with RGB channels. Video shows false color imagery of Lala's intensification into a major hurricane over the course of yesterday (Aug 18 local time). Lala currently threatens #Kauō / #Laysan in the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands w/ 125mph (205km/h) winds, but is expected to weaken from here on.
1133
July (they/them) @misovortex.bsky.social · 16/08/2026
Very subtle in this case but consistent with the disappearance of the signal at higher elevation sweeps. This would be the first time I’ve seen misovorts in a tropical storm strength system barring post season upgrade. All cases in our paper were C1 or higher. journals.ametsoc.org/view/journal...
130
July (they/them) @misovortex.bsky.social · 16/08/2026
More ongoing misovortex activity.
Kaua'i radar reflectivity and spectrum width in Tropical Storm Lala passing to the south on 8/17 local time. Wavy filaments of reflectivity are seen protruding along the inner edge of the northwestern eyewall, collocated with higher spectrum width values there.
152
July (they/them) @misovortex.bsky.social · 16/08/2026
Longer animation. The misovortices seemed to develop in a jet that flowed toward/“connected” with the outward adjacent main eyewall, similar to behavior in storms like Hurricane Hanna 2020 just before landfall. bmcnoldy.earth.miami.edu/tropics/hann...
120
July (they/them) @misovortex.bsky.social · 16/08/2026
Possible misovortices in the eastern eyewall of #Lala as seen from the shortwave finger shaped echoes with elevated spectrum widths. Difficult to confirm because of beam blockage.
Radar reflectivity and spectrum with from South Shore, Hawaii Island (Big Island) as the center of hurricane Lala passes just offshore to the south.
172
July (they/them) @misovortex.bsky.social · 13/08/2026
Samuel Johnson reading intently meme but he’s holding a photoshopped glowing computer monitor up to his face
080
July (they/them) @misovortex.bsky.social · 07/08/2026
Infrared view of Dolphin's sudden RI on approach to Okinawa. Recently assessed at 90kt intensity by JTWC. ADT estimates are higher, around 100kt.
030
July (they/them) @misovortex.bsky.social · 07/08/2026
Mesovortices almost certainly enhanced surface winds over northern Okinawa as Dolphin made its closest approach. They now seem to have subsided as the storm begins to move away as part of its trochoidal motion pattern.
163
July (they/them) @misovortex.bsky.social · 07/08/2026
Visible mesovortex activity may indicate sudden RI as Typhoon #Dolphin #台風13号 dives southward from its previously westward trajectory north of Okinawajima. #那覇市 #沖縄市 #沖縄 退避しろ! #Naha #Okinawa take cover NOW.
040
July (they/them) @misovortex.bsky.social · 27/07/2026
33 hours of GOES-East mesoscale sector imagery showing Genevieve reaching 140-kt intensity with GLM lightning overlay. (July 26 00:00 - July 27 09:00 UTC)
040
July (they/them) @misovortex.bsky.social · 27/07/2026
07/27 03z NHC update: #Genevieve reaches estimated maximum winds of 155mph (250km/h). No direct threat to any land areas.
GOES-East infrared image of powerful Category 4 Hurricane Genevieve on July 27 02:51 UTC over open ocean.
031
July (they/them) @misovortex.bsky.social · 27/07/2026
post a perfect album from the 90s that isn't nirvana, soundgarden, pearl jam, or alice in chains.
Album cover of Heaven or Las Vegas (1990) by Cocteau Twins
161
July (they/them) @misovortex.bsky.social · 26/07/2026
Pronounced wavenumber-2 hot towers firing around the nascent (possibly elliptical) eye of strengthening Hurricane #Genevieve in the eastern Pacific. No direct threat to any land areas.
031
July (they/them) @misovortex.bsky.social · 22/07/2026
Star Trek’s Seven of Nine grimacing on a screen while a hand in real life holds up a phone to the screen to make it look as if she is reacting in disgust to what‘s on the phone.
071
July (they/them) @misovortex.bsky.social · 19/07/2026
I *just* missed a JAL B787 landing as I got there 😭 Here’s an ANA A320 instead. Sadly I couldn’t stay very long.
Photo of an ANA Airbus A320 coming in to land viewed from basically the same perspective as in the Cathay Pacific photo.
141
July (they/them) @misovortex.bsky.social · 19/07/2026
Visited the Sky View observation deck at Kansai/Ōsaka airport today.
Side-view photo of a Cathay Pacific B777 just about to land taken from a rooftop not too far away on a hot summer afternoon. In the background is the Kansai Airport access bridge crossing over Osaka Bay with the Izumisano/Tajiri/Rinku Town skyline and large looming cumulus in the far distance.View along another angle from the rooftop looking over the Kansai International Airport Terminal 1 apron, taxiway, and runway. Numerous passenger aircraft are parked at the gates. A twin engine jetliner is taxiing away from my location down the taxiway. The afternoon sky is cloud free but hazy.
1162
July (they/them) @misovortex.bsky.social · 17/07/2026
The whole earth should look like this
Photo from Ishigaki, Japan of a hillside covered with lush, dense jungle on a humid summer late afternoon. A lone bird is flying above the vegetation. Dark, uneven mountains loom in the background. The sky contains large puffy clouds and blinding sunshine.
0192
July (they/them) @misovortex.bsky.social · 16/07/2026
This is what’s known as a “vibe killer”. It could have been way worse though so I’m thankful in that sense.
Photo of the tip of a nail or screw sticking out of a bicycle tire in the afternoon sun.
020
July (they/them) @misovortex.bsky.social · 15/07/2026
Discovered the zippy world of e-bikes today. Went halfway around Ishigakijima.
Sunny daytime photo from atop a hillside about 300m from sea level looking out at a portion of the western Ishigaki coastline. To my right is a serene azure blue ocean cove lined with sandy beaches. To my left (farther inland) are dense vegetation and lumpy, lush mountains. Some hills and mountains are also visible in the background. The sky contains puffy white clouds.
190
July (they/them) @misovortex.bsky.social · 11/07/2026
Hmmm
RCM1 SAR derived 10-m wind speed image of Typhoon Bavi at 21:29 UTC July 10 showing a large typhoon atop Sakishimaretto. A local minimum in wind speed associated with the remnant inner eyewall is located just southeast of Taramajima, while Ishigakijima sits in a broader but slightly “less weak” local wind speed minimum associated with the moat.
031
July (they/them) @misovortex.bsky.social · 10/07/2026
If an ERC happens while you’re in the moat, does it count as reaching the eye? Asking for a friend Also, 959 hPa and stable. I think that’s the lowest it’ll get for me.
Radar reflectivity image at 06:59 JST July 11 of Typhoon Bavi with a filamenting partial remnant eyewall surrounded by a much larger convective ring encompassing Iriomote to Miyako. The blue dot indicates my location on southern Ishigaki.Satellite image a little after sunrise corresponding to the radar image time showing a very disorganized core of Bavi.Photo looking down an empty street in Ishigaki in the morning light. The sky is overcast with drizzle and winds are moderate.
1101
July (they/them) @misovortex.bsky.social · 10/07/2026
Down to 968 now. Outer eyewall is about to hit.
Radar reflectivity image of Typhoon Bavi at 02:14 JST 7/11 showing a large typhoon with a concentric eyewall structure approaching the southwestern Ryukyu islands. The blue dot marks my location in southern Ishigaki island.
262
July (they/them) @misovortex.bsky.social · 10/07/2026
Yum 🍍
An open can of Orion pineapple beer in front of my Lenovo thinkpad and next to a power bank on a restaurant table.
111
July (they/them) @misovortex.bsky.social · 10/07/2026
I think Ishigakijima is going to miss the eye. Oh well.
Radar reflectivity image of Typhoon Bavi approaching the southwestern Ryukyu islands. A blue dot on southern Ishigaki island indicates my location.JTWC July 10 09z forecast track map showing Typhoon Bavi moving northwestward through the southwestern Ryukyu Islands with the exact center expected to pass between Ishigaki and Miyako.
140
July (they/them) @misovortex.bsky.social · 08/07/2026
Away from my computer so I don’t have detailed imagery to inspect myself, but this supports a notion I have that wavenumber 2 asymmetries can be remarkably long lived in TCs.
Cropped snippet of the JTWC July 8 2026 03z prognostic discussion:

“EARLIER, ANIMATED HIGH-RESOLUTION HIMAWARI-9 VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWED TWO MESOVORTICES
ORBITING ABOUT THE INNER EYEWALL, GENERATING A WAVENUMBER-2
ASYMMETRY.“
251
July (they/them) @misovortex.bsky.social · 06/07/2026
Here's a zoomed and brightness-enhanced version of the last three hours of the animation showing a kind of low-level cloud bridge rotating in the eye as a solid body. Wondering if this feature is wavenumber-2 in origin (i.e. "caused" by the elliptical core).
020
July (they/them) @misovortex.bsky.social · 06/07/2026
Not very often you see numerical instability like this in HWRF. 832.6mb, lmao
06z July 6 HWRF model 10m wind speed and mean sea level pressure fields valid at 09z July 9. The pressure contours are extremely distorted and noisy around the eyewall.
2153
July (they/them) @misovortex.bsky.social · 06/07/2026
12 hours of Himawari-9 visible imagery of Super Typhoon #Bavi traversing through the Marianas. Lots of interesting things to see. The low-level eye spins up to solid body rotation over the course of the day. The eye (still) seemed kind of elliptical, but it's hard to tell for sure.
12211
July (they/them) @misovortex.bsky.social · 06/07/2026
Interesting to see such a large divergence in the two Google AI/ML models (brick red and pastel pink) by 120 hours.
Deterministic model track guidance for Typhoon Bavi for the suite initialized 00z July 6. Tracks tightly agree on a west-northwestward path up until 72 hours, then spread apart a lot as the typhoon is expected to turn toward the northwest afterward.
162
July (they/them) @misovortex.bsky.social · 05/07/2026
Sunrise.
Himawari-9 satellite image of Super Typhoon Bavi just offshore of Rota island on the morning of July 6.
093
July (they/them) @misovortex.bsky.social · 05/07/2026
Good lord
Guam reflectivity and spectrum width at 6:42am local time July 6 showing wave-like subvortices along the western and southwestern eyewall of Typhoon Bavi
1112
July (they/them) @misovortex.bsky.social · 05/07/2026
Also suggested by the downwind bend of the Doppler velocities and higher spectrum widths along the western eyewall at the RMW as found in some cases in our recent paper journals.ametsoc.org/view/journal...
Guam base elevation Doppler velocity and spectrum width image at 5:56am local time
120