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Miles Kellerman

@mileskellerman.bsky.social
531 followers 381 following 331 posts

Assistant Professor at Leiden University's Institute of Security and Global Affairs. Working on the intersections of finance, crime, and international politics. Website: mileskellerman.com Substack: open.substack.com/pub/mileskellerman

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Reposted by Miles Kellerman
Miles Kellerman @mileskellerman.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
Washington wants to cut off China’s access to chipmaking machines. But as I discuss in a new post, its proposed method - the MATCH Act - comes at the cost of European sovereignty. Covering ASML, Nexperia, and, naturally, toilet paper supply chain issues mileskellerman.substack.com/p/a-match-ma...
mileskellerman.substack.com
A MATCH Made in Washington
The U.S. wants to cut off China’s access to the world’s most important chipmaking machines. The cost may be European sovereignty.
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Miles Kellerman @mileskellerman.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
Washington wants to cut off China’s access to chipmaking machines. But as I discuss in a new post, its proposed method - the MATCH Act - comes at the cost of European sovereignty. Covering ASML, Nexperia, and, naturally, toilet paper supply chain issues mileskellerman.substack.com/p/a-match-ma...
mileskellerman.substack.com
A MATCH Made in Washington
The U.S. wants to cut off China’s access to the world’s most important chipmaking machines. The cost may be European sovereignty.
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Miles Kellerman @mileskellerman.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
“I have asymmetric information. I am the house now,” Bessent said. “You can bet against me if you want.” www.ft.com/content/38d7...
ft.com
‘I am the house now’: Bessent warns currency traders not to bet against yen
Comments follow July’s rare joint intervention with Tokyo to support Japanese currency
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Miles Kellerman @mileskellerman.bsky.social · 15/08/2026
Nothing is normal anymore. But it is remarkable for the sitting Vice President to *speculate* on this question in public. Sane administrations have a coherent view on the international financial order.
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Reposted by Miles Kellerman
Henry Farrell @himself.bsky.social · 08/08/2026
Dan Wang and I have written the Weekend Essay at @financialtimes.com and if I can say so myself it's a banger as.ft.com/r/c1054499-a...
An illustration from classic Golden Age era science fiction.
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Miles Kellerman @mileskellerman.bsky.social · 17/07/2026
High-frequency Grift giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...
giftarticle.ft.com
Trump Media to sell high-speed access to president’s social media posts
Family company hopes large trading firms will pay for market-moving social media posts milliseconds early
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Miles Kellerman @mileskellerman.bsky.social · 08/07/2026
Fascinating report on the Dutch intelligence service’s refusal to believe Russia would invade Ukraine, driven in part by mistrust of US officials after Iraq. “The days of taking you at your word are over. You lied in 2003. Not a little bit — you lied big.” www.volkskrant.nl/kijkverder/v...
volkskrant.nl
‘Unique source’ blinded Dutch intelligence agencies to Putin’s invasion: ‘What a fuck-up’
Despite persistent warnings from American and British officials, the Dutch intelligence agencies refused to believe Putin would invade Ukraine in 2022. An investigation by de Volkskrant reveals how th...
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Reposted by Miles Kellerman
Pepper Culpepper @pculpepper.bsky.social · 01/07/2026
The magic of markets
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Miles Kellerman @mileskellerman.bsky.social · 15/06/2026
Last week was huge for U.S. markets. But it wasn't because of #SpaceX. Far more important was the SEC's planned repeal of the "order protection rule." In a new post, I argue this will lead to the rise of "empire exchanges" with tremendous power --> mileskellerman.substack.com/p/the-age-of...
mileskellerman.substack.com
The Age of Exchange Empires
The SEC is repealing an obscure rule on order protection. A change that will fundamentally alter the balance of power in American capitalism.
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Reposted by Miles Kellerman
Miles Kellerman @mileskellerman.bsky.social · 31/05/2026
This month I hosted a workshop on export controls with representatives of ASML, Philips, Europol, Dutch law enforcement, banking practitioners, and expert researchers. All part of a new research initiative I’m launching on export control enforcement —> #polisky open.substack.com/pub/mileskel...
open.substack.com
The Hidden Frontlines of Global Trade Security
States are increasingly weaponizing export controls. But the burden of enforcement falls on another set of actors: the private sector.
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Miles Kellerman @mileskellerman.bsky.social · 31/05/2026
This month I hosted a workshop on export controls with representatives of ASML, Philips, Europol, Dutch law enforcement, banking practitioners, and expert researchers. All part of a new research initiative I’m launching on export control enforcement —> #polisky open.substack.com/pub/mileskel...
open.substack.com
The Hidden Frontlines of Global Trade Security
States are increasingly weaponizing export controls. But the burden of enforcement falls on another set of actors: the private sector.
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Miles Kellerman @mileskellerman.bsky.social · 27/04/2026
Helped?
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Miles Kellerman @mileskellerman.bsky.social · 10/04/2026
“Benchmark north-west European prices for jet fuel closed at $1,573 a tonne on Thursday, according to price reporting agency Argus Media, up from about $750 a tonne before the Iran war.” giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...
giftarticle.ft.com
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Miles Kellerman @mileskellerman.bsky.social · 03/04/2026
The Netherlands Court of Audit has published an evaluation of the Dutch Anti-Money Laundering system. Their conclusion: "...the current anti-money laundering approach is insufficiently effective and efficient." www.rekenkamer.nl/documenten/2...
rekenkamer.nl
Gevolgen groot, opbrengsten onbekend - Onderzoek naar de anti-witwasaanpak in de bankensector | Algemene Rekenkamer
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Reposted by Miles Kellerman
Miles Kellerman @mileskellerman.bsky.social · 31/03/2026
My new essay for @aeon.co explores the little understood world of underground banking. Despite intense state pressure, these ancient networks have retained their independence. It is a story that holds critical lessons for our fracturing global financial order. #polisky aeon.co/essays/the-u...
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Q McCallum @qethanm.bsky.social · 31/03/2026
Solid read on underground, off-grid financial flows. Not everything passes through a centralized banking system. And not all such flows are for illicit matters.
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Miles Kellerman @mileskellerman.bsky.social · 31/03/2026
My new essay for @aeon.co explores the little understood world of underground banking. Despite intense state pressure, these ancient networks have retained their independence. It is a story that holds critical lessons for our fracturing global financial order. #polisky aeon.co/essays/the-u...
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Miles Kellerman @mileskellerman.bsky.social · 30/03/2026
Data center securitization, equity bubble, private credit withdrawals, oil crisis, crypto banking licenses, prediction market insider trading, FCPA on pause…everything is fine.
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Miles Kellerman @mileskellerman.bsky.social · 28/03/2026
“Increasingly the US is not so much the gatekeeper of the world’s only energy system, but the paranoid guardian of an ailing oil order that is rapidly losing primacy.” Great data-packed overview —>
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Reposted by Miles Kellerman
Miles Kellerman @mileskellerman.bsky.social · 25/03/2026
Fake labels, hair dryers, and a $2.5 billion scheme to smuggle Nvidia's AI chips into China. Why are export controls failing? And could private markets offer a solution? A new post for False Positive: mileskellerman.substack.com/p/the-silico...
mileskellerman.substack.com
The Silicon Shell Game
Fake labels, hair dryers, and a $2.5 billion scheme to smuggle AI chips into China. Why are export controls failing? And could private markets offer a solution?
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Reposted by Miles Kellerman
Q McCallum @qethanm.bsky.social · 26/03/2026
I sometimes joke that drug smugglers' techniques will soon be used to move other goods. But I didn't think "Nvidia chips" would be on that list. The problem, and a possible solution, by @mileskellerman.bsky.social :
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Miles Kellerman @mileskellerman.bsky.social · 25/03/2026
Fake labels, hair dryers, and a $2.5 billion scheme to smuggle Nvidia's AI chips into China. Why are export controls failing? And could private markets offer a solution? A new post for False Positive: mileskellerman.substack.com/p/the-silico...
mileskellerman.substack.com
The Silicon Shell Game
Fake labels, hair dryers, and a $2.5 billion scheme to smuggle AI chips into China. Why are export controls failing? And could private markets offer a solution?
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Miles Kellerman @mileskellerman.bsky.social · 28/02/2026
open.substack.com/pub/mileskel...
open.substack.com
Betting on Regime Change
Someone made a fortune betting on Maduro's capture. It exemplifies how prediction markets are reducing world events to nothing more than a casino wager.
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Miles Kellerman @mileskellerman.bsky.social · 28/02/2026
Seems like an apt time to repost this —> open.substack.com/pub/mileskel...
open.substack.com
Betting on Regime Change
Someone made a fortune betting on Maduro's capture. It exemplifies how prediction markets are reducing world events to nothing more than a casino wager.
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Reposted by Miles Kellerman
Gravel Influencer @gravelinfluencer.bsky.social · 28/02/2026
Just thinking about how lots of people in the White House are making money off of this
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Miles Kellerman @mileskellerman.bsky.social · 06/02/2026
It is hard to ignore the convenience of this initiative for American social media companies who might otherwise be restricted by campaign finance laws
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Miles Kellerman @mileskellerman.bsky.social · 03/02/2026
What explains Trump's rise? How did we get here? There are many theories. But I keep coming back to a single place: Orange County, California. Here's a story about how my hometown invented subprime lending and, in turn, changed the course of history mileskellerman.substack.com/p/orange-cou...
mileskellerman.substack.com
Orange County Syndrome
How the birthplace of subprime mortgages paved the way for Trump's rise.
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Miles Kellerman @mileskellerman.bsky.social · 30/01/2026
Writing in the Oxford Business Law Blog, I argue we face a "Detection Trilemma" in financial crime. The solution? Licensed Detection Agents — regulated bounty hunters empowered to surveil data and rewarded for results. #econsky #polisky #lawsky #finance blogs.law.ox.ac.uk/oblb/blog-po...
blogs.law.ox.ac.uk
Licensed Detection Agents: A New Market Mechanism for
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Miles Kellerman @mileskellerman.bsky.social · 21/01/2026
“European officials, on the other hand, talk incessantly about the anti-coercion instrument, but it still fails to deter because they seem so extraordinarily reluctant to deploy it.” @himself.bsky.social gets to the heart of the matter in a clear eyed op-Ed. www.nytimes.com/2026/01/21/o...
nytimes.com
Opinion | Europe Has a Bazooka. Time to Use It.
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Reposted by Miles Kellerman
Max Bergmann @maxbergmann.bsky.social · 20/01/2026
To prevent miscalculation, avoid US taking Greenland, Europe has to disabuse the US of the notion that it is weak. This means clearly signaling what's on the table to deter action. To deter, Europe has to be clear. The problem is Euro foreign policy is anything but clear. 9/
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Michael Derby @michaelsderby.bsky.social · 20/01/2026
They did after 9/11, it's a historical fact.
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Reposted by Miles Kellerman
Christopher Mims @mims.bsky.social · 20/01/2026
The thing to know about the PM of Canada is he just signed a trade deal with China. He is as serious as a heart attack about this.
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Miles Kellerman @mileskellerman.bsky.social · 20/01/2026
"You cannot live within the lie of mutual benefit through integration when integration becomes the source of your subordination." "Hegemons cannot continuously monetize their relationships. Allies will diversify..." In an ocean of platitudes, a real speech emerges. www.youtube.com/live/JtF630g...
youtube.com
LIVE: PM Carney delivers special address at World Economic Forum
YouTube video by CTV News
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Miles Kellerman @mileskellerman.bsky.social · 07/01/2026
Before the Venezuela operation, a user made $400k on Polymarket betting against Maduro. Prediction markets claim to facilitate truth discovery. But in a new post, I contend they are warping reality by reducing politics to a series of binary wagers. mileskellerman.substack.com/p/betting-on...
mileskellerman.substack.com
Betting on Regime Change
Someone made a fortune betting on Maduro's capture. It exemplifies how prediction markets are reducing world events to nothing more than a casino wager.
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Reposted by Miles Kellerman
Abe Newman @abenewman.bsky.social · 07/01/2026
My head is spinning as Trump goes full neo-royalist. Venezuela becomes a tool to redistribute oil revenues to those of Trump's choosing. Very similar to the exceptions and investment deals tied to tariff negotiations. www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
cambridge.org
Further Back to the Future: Neo-Royalism, the Trump Administration, and the Emerging International System | International Organization | Cambridge Core
Further Back to the Future: Neo-Royalism, the Trump Administration, and the Emerging International System - Volume 79 Issue S1
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Miles Kellerman @mileskellerman.bsky.social · 06/01/2026
With suspiciously perfect timing, someone made a fortune betting on Maduro's ousting. In a new post for False Positive, I reflect on how prediction markets are reducing political events to nothing more than a casino wager. #polisky #econsky #lawsky mileskellerman.substack.com/p/betting-on...
mileskellerman.substack.com
Betting on Regime Change
Someone made a fortune betting on Maduro's capture. It exemplifies how prediction markets are reducing world events to nothing more than a casino wager.
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Reposted by Miles Kellerman
Abe Newman @abenewman.bsky.social · 04/01/2026
5/This is not a world marked by spheres of interest in the traditional sense because the focus is not about competing blocks. It is about extraction and dominance for the insider elite clique. www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/u...
project-syndicate.org
The Trump Doctrine in Venezuela
Richard Haass explains why the US military intervention and arrest of Nicolás Maduro will play well in Beijing and Moscow.
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Miles Kellerman @mileskellerman.bsky.social · 03/01/2026
“We” are in the oil-selling business. The President of the United States claims Venezuela’s assets as his own.
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Elizabeth N. Saunders @profsaunders.bsky.social · 03/01/2026
A deluge of work on regime change after the 2003 invasion of Iraq yielded strong (and rare) agreement in IR: it doesn't work & has terrible consequences. @profdownes.bsky.social's book Catastrophic Success lays it out, but it's right there in the title. www.cornellpress.cornell.edu/book/9781501...
cornellpress.cornell.edu
Catastrophic Success by Alexander B. Downes | eBook | Cornell University Press
In Catastrophic Success, Alexander B. Downes compiles all instances of regime change around the world over the past two centuries. Drawing on this impressive data set, Downes shows that regime change....
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Eric Lipton NYT @ericlipton.nytimes.com · 03/01/2026
Karen Budd-Falen, the No. 3 at the Interior Department, didn’t disclose a $3.5 million water-rights contract between her husband and the developers of a Nevada mine, records show. By NYT Lisa Friedman www.nytimes.com/2026/01/03/c...
nytimes.com
The Trump Administration Approved a Big Lithium Mine. A Top Official’s Husband Profited.
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Miles Kellerman @mileskellerman.bsky.social · 12/12/2025
This is a huge moment, a complete integration of crypto into the state-regulated sphere and the realm of companies likely to be bailed out by taxpayers in times of stress
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Project Syndicate @projectsyndicate.bsky.social · 12/12/2025
Russia’s well-resourced financial intelligence unit, Rosfinmonitoring, is indeed capable of extensive oversight. But it uses these tools against the Kremlin’s conception of bad actors, writes @mileskellerman.bsky.social. bit.ly/4oMGEg3
bit.ly
Will the EU’s Blacklisting of Russia Make a Difference?
Miles Kellerman concludes that it will marginally improve the pressure campaign on the Kremlin but risks collateral damage.
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Miles Kellerman @mileskellerman.bsky.social · 12/12/2025
I have a new op-ed in @projectsyndicate.bsky.social on the EU adding Russia to its AML blacklist (no, it wasn’t already on it!). It’s symbolically important and closes a (narrow) loophole, but will also impose collateral damage on innocent Russian émigrés www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/e...
project-syndicate.org
Will the EU’s Blacklisting of Russia Make a Difference?
Miles Kellerman concludes that it will marginally improve the pressure campaign on the Kremlin but risks collateral damage.
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Abe Newman @abenewman.bsky.social · 10/12/2025
1/AI chip sale to China strike a tectonic shift in US national security policy? Whats diving it:"It is a system that closely reflects what Stacie Goddard and Abraham Newman have referred to as neo-royalism...The winning clique is clear: Nvidia, Trump’s inner circle" open.substack.com/pub/mileskel...
open.substack.com
Economic Statecraft on Chaos Mode
Trump’s reversal on Nvidia chip sales to China exposes a deeper rot: U.S. export control policy is running on vibes and private interests.
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Miles Kellerman @mileskellerman.bsky.social · 09/12/2025
Yesterday, Trump lifted the ban on H200 chip sales to China just hours after the DOJ busted a smuggling ring for the exact same chips. This isn't just bad coordination. It exposes a deeper rot: US economic statecraft is now running on vibes and private interests. open.substack.com/pub/mileskel...
open.substack.com
Economic Statecraft on Chaos Mode
Trump’s reversal on Nvidia chip sales to China exposes a deeper rot: U.S. export control policy is running on vibes and private interests.
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Miles Kellerman @mileskellerman.bsky.social · 09/12/2025
Yesterday, Trump lifted the ban on H200 chip sales to China just hours after the DOJ busted a smuggling ring for the exact same chips. This isn't just bad coordination. It exposes a deeper rot: US economic statecraft is now running on vibes and private interests. open.substack.com/pub/mileskel...
open.substack.com
Economic Statecraft on Chaos Mode
Trump’s reversal on Nvidia chip sales to China exposes a deeper rot: U.S. export control policy is running on vibes and private interests.
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Miles Kellerman @mileskellerman.bsky.social · 09/12/2025
Last week, the DOJ shut down a major network for smuggling Nvidia H200 chips into China. This week, Trump says those controls no longer apply. U.S. statecraft on chaos mode. www.ft.com/content/ac63...
ft.com
Nvidia can sell H200 AI chips to China, Donald Trump says
President says other chipmakers can also resume exports and ‘25% will be paid’ to the US
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Miles Kellerman @mileskellerman.bsky.social · 03/12/2025
With every action a reaction. Chinese companies are finding workarounds to sidestep Beijing's export controls. www.wsj.com/world/china/...
wsj.com
Exclusive | Chinese Rare-Earth Dealers Find Ways to Dodge Beijing’s Export Restrictions
Companies are tweaking magnet formulas and embedding them in motors to keep selling to the West.
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Miles Kellerman @mileskellerman.bsky.social · 30/11/2025
"In White House meetings, Mr. Sacks echoed [Nvidia CEO] Mr. Huang’s ideas that the best way to beat China would be to flood the world with American technology. Mr. Sacks worked to eliminate Biden-era restrictions on Nvidia and other American chip companies’ sales to foreign countries."
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Ulrike Franke @rikefranke.eu · 24/11/2025
This story should be covered waaaaayy more than it is. The US has sanctioned six judges if the international criminal court ICC, because Trump didn’t like them issuing arrest warrants for Benjamin Netanyahu and former Minister of Defense Yoav Gallant. www.lemonde.fr/en/internati...
lemonde.fr
Nicolas Guillou, French ICC judge sanctioned by the US: 'You are effectively blacklisted by much of the world's banking system'
Six judges and three prosecutors at the International Criminal Court have been sanctioned by the Trump administration. In an interview with Le Monde, Guillou discusses the impact of these measures on ...
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