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Le gouvernement dans l’engrenage d’une mobilisation lycéenne hors de contrôle

Mélenchon and other LFI leaders initially justified the student violence and accused police of brutal over-reaction. They appeared to take fright yesterday and said that they only supported peaceful protest. ENDS www.lemonde.fr/politique/ar...

lemonde.fr

Le ministre de l’éducation nationale, Edouard Geffray, doit recevoir, vendredi, les associations lycéennes et de parents d’élèves après dix jours de manifestations aux abords des établissements scolai...

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Several LFI politicians have turned up at the protests, including the mayor of Saint Denis in the NW Paris suburbs, Bally Bagayoko. A recent deep-dive poll for Le Monde found that 40% of 18-23 year old supported Mélenchon in the 1st round of the Presidential election on 18 April. 6/

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The Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu said yesterday that the protests were originally legitimate but have been manipulated by far left groups – including Mélenchon’s LFI - and have degenerated into “urban violence”. 5/

Student complaints range from overcrowded classes, to global warming, to long queues for their subsidised 1 euro lunches, to the possibility of a Far Right President next May. Such a cocktail of specific and existential issues makes the protests difficult to contain. 4/

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The government hopes that the weekend will create a natural firebreak and that the 15-18 year olds throwing missiles and burning dustbins - and in a few cases buildings – will go back to their normal weekend activities. 3/

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Student protests in France come and go but the memory of May 1968 – which almost brought down the government - is never far away. The education minister Edouard Geffray will meet student and parents leaders today to try to halt the movement which began in the Paris suburbs last month. 2/

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The violent school protests which closed 900 (one in four) lycées and led to 2,000 arrests on Thursday have invaded the French presidential campaign. The high-school students say their anger is justified. The government claims manipulation by the Far Left, including Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s LFI 1/

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Main take-away? Comments writing off the “safe” Philippe were premature but he is still struggling to generate real enthusiasm in a national mood dominated by anger and rejection of the status quo. ENDS

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The Ifop-Fiducial poll still shows Marine Le Pen well ahead of other contenders but her lead over Philippe shrinks to 12 points if Attal falls out. This is the first time in more than a month that any reputable poll has shown Philippe above 20%. 3/

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Recent polls by Harris and YouGov showed Mélenchon defeating Philippe and snatching 2nd place in Round 2 whatever the line-up of candidates in Round 1. The Ifop-Fiducial poll puts Philippe ahead of Mélenchon in all cases – even if his centrist rival Gabriel Attal stays in the race. 2/

Mujtaba Rahman @mijrahman.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

A new French presidential poll today calms fears of an “all extremes” run-off in May between Far Right and Far Left. An Ifop poll shows Centrist former PM Edouard Philippe 5 points ahead of radical Left veteran Jean-Luc Mélenchon in the “race for second place” in the 1st round on 18 April. 1/

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Now the UK will be fully engaged in a rejoin debate I'm reposting my piece from a few months ago It's important to recognise that the EU the UK left in 2016 no longer exists. This isn't an argument against rejoin. But the changes the EU has gone through need to be discussed in any rejoin debate

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Mujtaba Rahman @mijrahman.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

@andyburnham.bsky.social knows the British public is way ahead of UK politicians on Brexit and so is prepared to make the argument He doesn't know how far he'll ultimately be able to go but is opening up political space in the EU for a serious conversation

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Mujtaba Rahman @mijrahman.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

Don't believe the Europeans when they say the UK is no longer interesting, a priority etc etc Every senior EU official I've met today in Brussels has spent 20 mins talking about @andyburnham.bsky.social speech. The EU is paying attention and interested - even if it pretends otherwise

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Mujtaba Rahman @mijrahman.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

Burnham's speech hasn't gone unnoticed in Brussels (where I am) Maybe Canada helped pave the way But a sense among senior officials here there's a more purposeful and political Govt in London that's willing to be clearer and more strategic about what it wants with/from EU

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Macron also said he had told President Donald Trump that his suggestion that he might block US diesel exports to Eurioe and elsewhere to reduce pump prices in the US was a “very bad idea”. 7/

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Details were still being discussed with Riyadh, Macron said, but French troops and equipment such as radar would be sent to Yanbu on the Red Sea to prevent the Houthi rebels in nearby Yemen from attacking the alternative export route for Saudi oil exports blocked by Iranian action in Hormuz. 6/

Much of the interview concerned the spiralling cost of petrol and diesel in France. Macron said he had taken several initiatives to try to calm world energy markets, including offering military aid to Saudi Arabia. 5/

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The French President, speaking after the release of a Danish intelligence report warning of so-called “hybrid” attacks by Russia on Europe, said he had ordered a higher state of alert and increased protection for military and sensitive industrial sites in France. 4/

“Until now there have not been attacks on France like the attack on Leipzig airport”, Macron said, “But we should prepare for that possibility”. 3/

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In a wide-ranging TV interview on global threats to France, Macron accused Russia of “multiplying hostile and criminal attacks” against European countries but denied reports that western intelligence agencies had uncovered plans for such an attack against the south of France. 2/

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Mujtaba Rahman @mijrahman.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

France will send troops and military equipment to help the Saudis defend crucial oil installations at Yanbu on the Red Sea from attack by Houthi rebels, President Emmanuel Macron said tonight. 1/

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Reposted by Mujtaba Rahman

Europe has spent a long time fretting about the US under President Donald Trump. It should worry more about Russia and China, who both have clear incentives to escalate rather than compromise in their dealings with the EU. My latest for @theguardian.com www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...

theguardian.com

Europe frets about Trump. But soon he could be the least of our problems | Mujtaba Rahman

The US relationship is stabilising, but how will Europe face up to Russia and China if President Le Pen is in power, asks political risk consultant Mujtaba Rahman

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Mujtaba Rahman @mijrahman.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

Future threat? Last time I checked Russia's actions in Ukraine and vis NATO are happening as we speak, as is de-industrialisation of large segments of the European economy due to Chinese dumping.

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Mujtaba Rahman @mijrahman.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

theguardian.com

Europe frets about Trump. But soon he could be the least of our problems | Mujtaba Rahman

The US relationship is stabilising, but how will Europe face up to Russia and China if President Le Pen is in power, asks political risk consultant Mujtaba Rahman

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Reposted by Mujtaba Rahman

Mujtaba Rahman @mijrahman.bsky.social · 21/09/2026

Here is Moscow trying to help Le Pen by saying that she has become anti-Moscow. Why? Because they know that at heart she is pro-Moscow.

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Mujtaba Rahman @mijrahman.bsky.social · 21/09/2026

Here is Moscow trying to help Le Pen by saying that she has become anti-Moscow. Why? Because they know that at heart she is pro-Moscow.

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Mujtaba Rahman @mijrahman.bsky.social · 21/09/2026

Wouldn't over interpret this Idea it represents some sort of Trump pivot a tad overdone

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Mujtaba Rahman @mijrahman.bsky.social · 20/09/2026

Merz just spoke, re-confirmed that he is ready to fight. He will not step down. Wants the big reforms now. This is a message to the SPD.

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Mujtaba Rahman @mijrahman.bsky.social · 20/09/2026

Berlin: The Left leads clearly on 24.5%, followed by the CDU 20%, AfD 16%, Greens 15% and SPD 12%

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Mujtaba Rahman @mijrahman.bsky.social · 20/09/2026

The first projections are in from Germany's state elections: Mecklenburg–Western Pomerania: The AfD leads narrowly on 37%, ahead of the SPD on 35.5%. Merz’s CDU is on just 5.5%, perilously close to the threshold for entering parliament.

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Mujtaba Rahman @mijrahman.bsky.social · 19/09/2026

Le Pen is covering herself in case Russia becomes a campaign issue It could be awkward for her politically if Russia turns its hybrid warfare on France Her opponents will point to her old political and financial love affairs with Putin. She is getting her reply in first

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Mujtaba Rahman @mijrahman.bsky.social · 19/09/2026

Beyond additional basing rights & a few other demands, the US was seeking a guarantee that Greenland won’t become independent. Obviously an unachievable goal that the Admin was never going to secure Deal is a big win for Denmark & GL - all their key red lines have been respected

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Macron: "No one is safe from hybrid Russian attack. We must do all we can to anticipate, plan and protect ourselves. Russian attacks will not go without a response. It would be an error on Russia's part to continue to act towards Europeans in this way."

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Macron had summoned leaders of all the main pol parties to a meet with intelligence chiefs at the Elysée to discuss the “deteriorating” international situation. In comments as they left, most said nothing about the Russian threat but accused Macron of ignoring pubic suffering from energy prices ENDS

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The French President rejected, however, demands from leaders of the Far Right and the Left to slash taxes on petrol and diesel. France’s budget deficit made such action impossible said but the “maximum” would be done to ease the pain for farmers, fishers and others. 5/

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Macron also addressed increasing public anger in France about soaring pump prices as a result of the conflict in the Gulf. He said he had convened a G7 meeting and asked the European Commission to take EU-wide action to ensure adequate oil and gas supplies in Europe this winter. 4/

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The French president said he had demanded a “protection plan for the most sensitive and critical infrastructure in our industrial and technological defence base.” 3/

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President Macron said he had ordered “increased vigilance” against an “intensifying Russian hybrid threat” after a series of incidents this summer including attacks on Leizig and a train between Kyiv and Warsaw. 2/

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‼️🇫🇷🇷🇺 France will take new steps to protect “critical infrastructure” from Russian drone and cyber attacks, President Macron said today. He was talking after inviting French political leaders to discuss the “rapidly deteriorating” international situation in Ukraine & the Gulf 1/

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Most striking of all perhaps is the deep pessimism with which France is approaching the 2027 election. No less than 74% of voters think that the country faces even harder time in the months to come. ENDS

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